Exactly, this. The UK Government has been far from ideal, indeed I would say consistently bad, since 2010 - but I certainly don't want a monster like Putin invading the UK.
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Russia invades Ukraine
- Thread starter kristiang85
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Exactly, this. The UK Government has been far from ideal, indeed I would say consistently bad, since 2010 - but I certainly don't want a monster like Putin invading the UK.
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Gostav
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Oh yeah, it takes a brave elected leader who will tell the truth to the people: the good times are over, we have to fight hard, don't complain about economic and material scarcity, because the days ahead will be even tougher!
As the mild-mannered leader of a party who have virtually destroyed themselves propping up their main opposition for 15 years, and are now dependent on two very different parties to support a narrow coalition, I don't see this as something the current German chancellor has a hope of managing. On the other hand, the German government do seem curiously willing to own the current policy without complaint. If they are boxed in and unable to do what they want then they need to learn to blame their coalition partners, or their MPs. As it stands it looks like an indifference to Ukraine and tacit support of the Russians is the message they want to send.
I personally think claims of enforced austerity are exaggerated by politicians and their friends in order to maintain their own wealth and power. I am sure the world could do fine without doing deals with Putin, but I suspect the politicians are doing quite nicely out of these tie-ups so want to pretend that there is no other alternative than austerity because they do not want to lose their connection with Putinist companies.
Look at Cameron and Osborne's austerity, yet the same Conservative Party later enforced long, over-extended lockdowns on us which caused far more economic damage than if austerity had not happened. Time to call out these politicians for their hypocrisy.
We managed perfectly fine without Putin's gas in the past; I'm sure we can in the future, but I suspect it's not in many politicians' interest to do so.
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At risk of going off topic think you'd find labour would have been worse. As it stands good job Corbyn never got elected, where would we stand with the situation in Ukraine? Dread to think.
It wasn't meant to be that party political a comment, to be fair. The point I was trying to make is that many politicians claim austerity is the only necessary action, often (IMO) for selfish reasons, when it suits them - only for the exact same party to inflict some might say unnecessary economic damage later.
The point I'm really trying to make though is directly relevant to the Ukraine conflict: I believe that there are certain people in the West that do nicely out of deals with Putin and don't want to rock the boat too much; scaring the population with threats of austerity is one of the tools in their armoury.
At the risk of following you, Corbyn never stood against Cameron and Osborne, so it's a bit of a false dichotomy.
If Corbyn had won he'd probably currently be cutting a rather shambolic figure, attempting to argue for peace while fundamentally not understanding Putin, much the same as Macron. That would be a shame, but frankly Johnson/Truss aren't exactly providing global leadership or making a difference either.
BananaRepublic
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brad465
Veteran Member
I like to think all the people Tusk annoyed for not holding back his strong anti-Brexit views will have given him a bit of respect back for this latest remark.
Donald Tusk
@donaldtuskEPP
In this war everything is real: Putin’s madness and cruelty, Ukrainian victims, bombs falling on Kyiv.
Only your sanctions are pretended.
Those EU government’s, which blocked tough decisions (i.a. Germany, Hungary, Italy) have disgraced themselves.
8:06 am · 25 Feb 2022·Twitter for iPhone
Annetts key
Established Member
Whatever some people may have thought about him, our current PM has been found out to be worse than some people expected…
Anyway this is all off topic.
I seem to recall that austerity Dave and wallpaper factory boy spent ten years telling us exactly that.
Indeed.
In fact this really does show that Tusk is a man worthy of respect. He was right about Brexit and he's right about Ukraine.
Of course I don't doubt that he remains Public Enemy Number One for Farage.
GS250
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Russia would never be capable of invading the UK. Even if the Americans took a back seat. Several reasons why.....mainly that they completely lack the ability for the type of direct amphibious assault required to breach our defences. Secondarily, that they would have been softened up somewhat by European forces if we're talking a land based invasion across the continent. They may not even make it past Germany.
I guess if we're going to bring our own political class into the conversation, then rather than go down the usual party line route, one thing is now clear, that the period of questioning why we need a competent and well resourced military is surely over?
I guess if we're going to bring our own political class into the conversation, then rather than go down the usual party line route, one thing is now clear, that the period of questioning why we need a competent and well resourced military is surely over?
One does wonder what sort of a state the armed forces would be in now without the NATO 2% commitment.
DustyBin
Established Member
They’d not have air or naval superiority so it’s a non-starter. The losses would be off the scale as the RAF, RN and the UK’s state of the art air defence systems tore into them. It would be what I think the Americans refer to as a “turkey shoot”.
I honestly don’t think they’d get as far as Germany!
In truth it’s difficult to predict exactly how it would play out, but I suspect they’d be held within the Baltic states and Poland before giving up.
Agreed, politicians have been incredibly naive in their belief that future wars would all be against insurgencies in the Middle East (for example).
I don't think there is any chance of all of Putin invading the UK or anywhere else in western Europe. He might retaliate by other means (which is why, while supporting Ukraine appropriately, by military or other means, we need to be a little careful) but a Hitler-style land invasion just seems to be in the realms of fantasy.
brad465
Veteran Member
The FT live feed is reporting Italy are now prepared to support curbs on Swift, which hopefully means Germany and Hungary can be convinced, particularly as they'd be even more isolated in this.
carriageline
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I can’t help but think ‘certain’ nations are watching this closely, to see how the rest of the world react? North Korea and China to name 2.
If the rest of the world do not wish to dirty their hands (rightly or wrongly) it may persuade them to make moves on some of their neighbours.
If the rest of the world do not wish to dirty their hands (rightly or wrongly) it may persuade them to make moves on some of their neighbours.
FrodshamJnct
Established Member
Nortk Korea will do whatever China wishes them to do. Doubt we'll hear much/any reaction from them tbh.
Annetts key
Established Member
Hmm, how big is the Russian navy compared to our Navy?
Why would you invade when we rely far too much on imports by sea? Far easier to try to isolate us.
The Russian airforce has been and still are probing our air space and the Russian navy are getting as close as possible to our coastal waters.
The Channel 5 TV series “WARSHIP: LIFE AT SEA” is rather revealing in showing the Royal Navy trying to counter the Russian navy in its activities around the U.K.
Wikipedia said:
Link to the Wikipedia page on HMS Northumberland.
Radio Times said:
Link to Radio Times page about the Channel 5 TV series WARSHIP: LIFE AT SEA.
I must say I'm not as confident as some appear to be with regards to Russia. I do fear the UK, along with the US, are the two most hated western nations for Russia. I do see the UK quite vulnerable to Russian attack as things stand.
I know we're part of NATO, but I don't think that's going to be enough for Putin to resist. We are being one of the most vocal and active of the Western nations currently.
I know we're part of NATO, but I don't think that's going to be enough for Putin to resist. We are being one of the most vocal and active of the Western nations currently.
Whilst relations between the UK and Russia are on the floor we are not vulnerable to an attack. Putin might be many things but suicidal he isn't.
Annetts key
Established Member
On our own (U.K.) we are vulnerable to an attack. But we would not be a push over. However, as part of NATO, there is no way that Putin would mount any kind of serious attack against us.
That goes for many other individual NATO member countries.
The whole reason according to those who agree with Russia’s position on this situation, is because Putin is afraid of NATO. Even though NATO has never threatened Russia.
So we (U.K.) and some of the other members of NATO (but not actually NATO itself) should be taking advantage of Putin’s fear of us (and NATO), by assisting Ukraine in defending itself by providing military assistance. And making sure that we tell Putin loud and clear that we WILL be doing so.
Why else would he make so much effort to tell us to stay out of it?
If we continue to sit on the sidelines, Putin will see that as a win for him, even if the war he has started does not go as well as he expected.
Is that really what we want?
And if Ukraine (in part, or in whole) falls, the situation will be even worse. Putin having seen us just watch, may build up his military again and then at some point in the future, do the same thing again.
And we really don’t want that to happen.
That goes for many other individual NATO member countries.
The whole reason according to those who agree with Russia’s position on this situation, is because Putin is afraid of NATO. Even though NATO has never threatened Russia.
So we (U.K.) and some of the other members of NATO (but not actually NATO itself) should be taking advantage of Putin’s fear of us (and NATO), by assisting Ukraine in defending itself by providing military assistance. And making sure that we tell Putin loud and clear that we WILL be doing so.
Why else would he make so much effort to tell us to stay out of it?
If we continue to sit on the sidelines, Putin will see that as a win for him, even if the war he has started does not go as well as he expected.
Is that really what we want?
And if Ukraine (in part, or in whole) falls, the situation will be even worse. Putin having seen us just watch, may build up his military again and then at some point in the future, do the same thing again.
And we really don’t want that to happen.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Even if he is, the people around him won't be and will quietly pull the plug.
Annetts key
Established Member
Are we really now going to hope that someone has the balls and the means and the opportunity to take him out?
That’s a bit of a gamble IMHO.
Far better to get him to back off rather than wait for someone else to try to take care of him.
I think Macron's done well in this instance. He's been prepared to take dialogue to the limit, however in vain that may be, but fundamentally France has been prepared to act, both in providing armaments and intercepting sanction busting ships.
An attack on a NATO nation is different. Invocation of Article 5 would lead to an obligation of assistance to be provided by every other member of NATO, it's not a request. There are seven US Air Force flying squadrons based permanently in the UK, so they are in the fight immediately. That's not including all the other NATO forces with some sort of units in the UK. Or the fact that we are the western edge of Europe so to get here the Russians have probably violated other territory. Even coming by sea they would probably be violating Norway and Dutch territory.
It wouldn't be like Ukraine where NATO has the ability to not become directly involved.
Macron just has a tendency to always look like he's jumped the gun, failed to consult with his allies, misunderstood the situation and is biting off far more than he knows how to chew - he's almost Trumpian in that respect.
In general I respect people who attempt to talk peace until the last possible moment, and, like Chamberlain, I think history can misjudge them. In this case though a lot of the late stage diplomacy was based on a misunderstanding of Putin. Countries lying geographically closer to the whole situation were making it clear a week before the invasion that sanctions were required immediately, and ultimately Macron's bumbling diplomacy probably got in the way of that a little.
GS250
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The 'pressing of the button' is a very complicated and fail safe process. There are levels of security in there to ensure a rogue leader cannot simply do as he pleases. Generals and above can actually over rule and block decisions to use weapons of mass destruction. These are decisions of which are usually taken at military leadership level and only approved by the President or Prime Minister. Not the other way round.