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Russia invades Ukraine

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dakta

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@ EG - I'd like to think I'd do the same, but it's impossible to know until you're in the situation - it's an ask and a half whether justified or not. Even if you're totally in the right, by taking up arms you might never see the family again (and vice versa). Being right doesn't solve the issues of being dead.

That said - IMHO this is one of those rare situations where I think principles should be stood by. I think pacifying bullies can be a dangerous game. I appreciate there are people with an alternative viewpoint on this whole conflict but what kind of normal person thinks putting the public into a position where they are deciding to flee or bare arms against a professional army is - in any kind of way - a positive step? worrying stuff really.

In BBC news there are now (unconfirmed) claims that an IL-76 transporter aircraft has been shot down by Ukraine forces potentially containing russian paratroopers - if that's the case the losses in that alone may be substantial as a quick look suggests that have a capacity of over 100
 

Scotrail314209

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Part of me can’t settle to sleep tonight, purely out of the worry to what I might see on the news tomorrow regarding Ukraine. I really hope there isn’t a headline saying Kyiv has fallen.

I think tonight will set the tone for the rest of the war.
 

DanNCL

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Part of me can’t settle to sleep tonight, purely out of the worry to what I might see on the news tomorrow regarding Ukraine. I really hope there isn’t a headline saying Kyiv has fallen.

I think tonight will set the tone for the rest of the war.
I agree. Hopefully this’ll be the moment where the Kremlin realises, even if they don’t admit it publicly, that they’re fighting a losing battle and the best thing that they could do for everyone including Putin himself is to withdraw. Based on how things have gone so far, Putin’s military has a huge struggle on its hands if it wants to take control of Kyiv - Ukraine has put up much more of a fight than Putin had prepared for, and Putin’s military doesn’t appear to have been as resilient as he’d assumed. Fingers crossed this’ll translate into Zelensky’s government retaining control of Kyiv tonight.

If the reports that more than 1000 Russian military personnel have been killed in the last 48 hours are true, that’s already a lot of angry Babushkas who’ve lost their sons. Russia won’t be able to take much more of it as if many more Russians die in this Putin’s position on the matter within Russian society will become untenable.
 

Scotrail314209

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Very interesting to see Russia asking Kazakhstan for help and being denied. Does this show that Russia are beginning to realise they may be fighting a losing battle?
Kazakhstan is denying a request for its troops to join the Russian offensive, NBC has reported.
The former Soviet Republic state has also refused to join Putin’s recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent states, his pretext for the hostility.
A significant and interesting move here, from one of Russia’s closest allies.
 

TheEdge

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Based on how things have gone so far, Putin’s military has a huge struggle on its hands if it wants to take control of Kyiv - Ukraine has put up much more of a fight than Putin had prepared for, and Putin’s military doesn’t appear to have been as resilient as he’d assumed. Fingers crossed this’ll translate into Zelensky’s government retaining control of Kyiv tonight.

If the reports that more than 1000 Russian military personnel have been killed in the last 48 hours are true, that’s already a lot of angry Babushkas who’ve lost their sons. Russia won’t be able to take much more of it as if many more Russians die in this Putin’s position on the matter within Russian society will become untenable.

I think ol' Vladdy was expecting this to be like Shock and Awe, he'd already be in the Presidential Palace in Kyiv by now handing out medals. What actually happened is they've underestimated Ukrainian will to fight and ability and are loosing equipment and aircraft in ways not expected. Footage of T-80BVMs knocked out, Tunguska's destroyed, Su-25s downed, Grad convoys destroyed, this cannot be how he expected it to play out. And then he wants to threaten Finland and Sweden who both have considerable more powerful and modern forces.

I'd be interested to know what the reaction was to Ukraine managing to land an SRBM onto a Russian airbase within Russia proper. That must have gone down very well in the Kremlin and in the wider populace.
 

squizzler

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If we cannot get our government to provide forces in Ukraine, we should get them to storm Londongrad instead.

I would like to see armed response units dragging oliogarchs and their families from their belgravia homes which can them be used to accommodate emergency refugees from the fighting. It would make great TV and let all corrupt people know their money is no good here anymore. Internment camps should be set up for them - which this country did for axis nationals in WW2. It should feel like a war for them. Let these crooks know what it feels like to be de-housed by the war that is being done by their mate.

Oliver Brought writes very well on the subject for the guardian. This war is actually an opportunity for Britain to deal with the issue of dirty money in the economy and political system once and for all. If done all at once - so that the assets could be seized before they go - it would actually represent not so much sanctions but a front-line in an economic war. His book "Moneyland" is very good but in the meantime I strongly recommend reading his latest article:

There is the expression "total war" to describe the situation n of WW2 where the civilian economy was switched to the war effort. If economic action is going to be used instead of military intervention, let it be total war - mobilisation of every sector of the economy against Russia -only without actual military combat.

Russia is a mafia state, and its elite exists to enrich itself. Democracy is an existential threat to that theft, which is why Putin has crushed it at home and seeks to undermine it abroad. For decades, London has been the most important place not only for Russia’s criminal elite to launder its money, but also for it to stash its wealth. We have been the Kremlin’s bankers, and provided its elite with the financial skills it lacks. Its kleptocracy could not exist without our assistance. The best time to do something about this was 30 years ago – but the second best time is right now.
 

Iskra

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If we cannot get our government to provide forces in Ukraine, we should get them to storm Londongrad instead.

I would like to see armed response units dragging oliogarchs and their families from their belgravia homes which can them be used to accommodate emergency refugees from the fighting. It would make great TV and let all corrupt people know their money is no good here anymore. Internment camps should be set up for them - which this country did for axis nationals in WW2. It should feel like a war for them. Let these crooks know what it feels like to be de-housed by the war that is being done by their mate.

Oliver Brought writes very well on the subject for the guardian. This war is actually an opportunity for Britain to deal with the issue of dirty money in the economy and political system once and for all. If done all at once - so that the assets could be seized before they go - it would actually represent not so much sanctions but a front-line in an economic war. His book "Moneyland" is very good but in the meantime I strongly recommend reading his latest article:

There is the expression "total war" to describe the situation n of WW2 where the civilian economy was switched to the war effort. If economic action is going to be used instead of military intervention, let it be total war - mobilisation of every sector of the economy against Russia -only without actual military combat.
Being Russian isn’t a crime.

We have already established that the Russian people do not broadly support the war.

I think your ideas are rotten, and I’d never want to see Britain become a tyrannical police state as you envisage.
 

Bantamzen

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Hur, hurr, durr! Given my screen name I probably shouldn’t post in this thread but, what the heck, let’s do it!

My wife is Ukrainian-born of Russian heritage (in before jokes about mail-order brides, we first met at work over 20 years ago!). Her family roots are in a southern suburb of Donets’k, a place we (pre-pandemic) visited 2 or 3 times a year. I have seen with my own eyes the damage caused by the indiscriminate shelling campaigns conducted by the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) over the last 8 or so years. The loathing of the far-right extremist nationalist elements that had usurped power in the Rada in Kiev/Kyiv (she really doesn’t care how it is spelled, it’s all Cyrillic anyway!) was palpable. Many acquaintances over there were exasperated by the seeming lack of interest from Russia, although at a local level there was, and presumably still is, a great deal of low-level cross-border support, both physical and emotional.

So far, IT connections have remained stable during this intervention and my wife’s family have been in constant touch. They are expressing feelings of relief and joy at the current turn of events, seeing it as a kind of liberation.

My wife can get very agitated at what she sees as the shallow, conventional Western viewpoint about matters in that part of the world, regarding these views as some kind of throwback to 20th century Cold War-based imperialism. I’ve shown her this thread and, at this very moment, she is threatening to set up her own account, purely for this topic! Yikes! If she does so I apologise in advance for any cognitive dissonance folks may suffer...
Yep you were right, you probably shouldn't have posted. Not because of your username but because of your family's bias towards Russia. Of course your wife's family are going to be happy seeing troops from the country of their heritage rolling in. But that doesn't make it OK, far from it in fact. Regardless of what may have been happening in Ukraine, Russia has no business there. None, and that is the end of it. Was Russia threatened by them, did they have some serious concerns of an imminent attack from Ukraine? No.

What Putin is doing is criminal in the least. The people of Ukraine have earned the right to self-determination. If they wanted Russian rule then they would have made that clear. But judging by both the resistance and evacuations they want none of it, regardless of what your wife's family think. So again, Russia have no business there. I can only hope that someone in the Kremlin or Russian military command sees sense one day and ghosts Putin before much more damage is done to both countries.
 

squizzler

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Being Russian isn’t a crime.

We have already established that the Russian people do not broadly support the war.

I think your ideas are rotten, and I’d never want to see Britain become a tyrannical police state as you envisage.
I didn't say being Russian is a crime (certainly the USA and British did round up german and Japanese civilians in WW2, I concede that is wrong but they felt that desperate times called for desperate measures then).

But I do think being connected with Putin's gangster regime and using London to hide your ill gotten wealth is. And why should they not be summarily stripped of their property and citizenship? Thousands of Ukranians have already lost their homes and all their possessions, and are fighting hard to make sure they don't lose their citizenship because their country has ceased to exist. It should feel like being at war for these well-known associates of Putin, and war does not go through legal niceties.

Anyway, read Mr Bullough's article and tell me we cannot be making economic war more effectively against Putin and his cronies.
 

Iskra

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I didn't say being Russian is a crime (certainly the USA and British did round up german and Japanese civilians in WW2, I concede that is wrong but they felt that desperate times called for desperate measures then).

But I do think being connected with Putin's gangster regime and using London to hide your ill gotten wealth is. And why should they not be summarily stripped of their property and citizenship? Thousands of Ukranians have already lost their homes and all their possessions, and are fighting hard to make sure they don't lose their citizenship because their country has ceased to exist. It should feel like being at war for these well-known associates of Putin, and war does not go through legal niceties.

Anyway, read Mr Bullough's article and tell me we cannot be making economic war more effectively against Putin and his cronies.
Nothing should be done summarily, it should all be done via proper judicial process so that those who genuinely are complicit can be sanctioned as appropriate and those that are found innocent can live here happily ever after. Groups of people should not be indiscriminately tarred with the same brush. I’m sorry, but totalitarianism is not for me.
 

squizzler

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Nothing should be done summarily, it should all be done via proper judicial process so that those who genuinely are complicit can be sanctioned as appropriate and those that are found innocent can live here happily ever after. Groups of people should not be indiscriminately tarred with the same brush. I’m sorry, but totalitarianism is not for me.
Great, intern these people and their assets so they don't go anywhere whilst waiting for the "judicial process". But we already know full well who many of them are.
 

Iskra

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Great, intern these people and their assets so they don't go anywhere whilst waiting for the "judicial process". But we already know full well who many of them are.
Many of them came here precisely to get away from Putin!

Your vision is clearly ridiculous, and not going to happen, so I shall not be engaging with you anymore on the subject.
 

tommy2215

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It is good to see many of Putin's allies (or at least friends) are condemning this invasion. The leaders of Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Moldova who had supported and been close to Putin before the attack are now publicly attacking him. Its also good to see Kazakhstan, China and India while not condemn Putin, not support his invasion either. Although China are doing everything they can save the Russian economy.
 

kermit

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The rule of law, underpinned by transparent democratic processes, is a fragile and precious thing. The rule of Putin, Assad, Trump, Xi, Kim etc etc, relies on perverting or abandoning those principles. If the majority of the populations of the Eastern Ukrainian states wanted to rejoin Russia, the route was via the ballot box (ironically available to them until now). The route to sanction London based Putin supporters is via law. It might not be perfect, but it's all we've got.
 

DynamicSpirit

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In other news, it seems that 11 Labour MPs had signed a statement by the Stop the War Coalition which amongst other things, accuses the UK Government of 'sabre rattling' over Ukraine, opposes Ukraine's membership of NATO and calls on the Ukraine and Russia to resolve their differences by dialogue and implementation of the Minsk-2 agreement. Those MPs have now withdrawn their signatures - but only after Keir Starmer threatened them with withdrawal of the Labour whip if they didn't, from which we can infer they possibly withdrew their names more out of a sense of political survival than from any genuine change of heart.

The MPs were: Diane Abbott, John McDonnell, Richard Burgon, Ian Lavery, Beth Winter, Zarah Sultana, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Apsana Begum, Mick Whitley, Tahir Ali, and Ian Mearns. Unsurprisingly, Jeremy Corbyn also signed it (and has not withdrawn his signature), as did Claudia Webbe - both of whom now sit as independents.

(The letter is here) (To be fair, the letter was dated a week ago, so before the Russian invasion. But on the other hand, it's still there)

(EDIT: Fixed the link)
 
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We really need to drop this childish characterisation that all wealthy Russians are crooked oligarchs and that all the Russian money is “dirty money”.
There’s a lot of that and it should rightly be condemned, but the Russian economy has also created tens of thousands of legitimately wealthy individuals, many who have taken a lot of their money to “safe” havens, away from Russia.
 

Wilts Wanderer

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Yes we have to be very careful about any inferences of ‘guilt by association’ - only this week there was a thread on this very forum about collective punishment of classrooms which was unanimously agreed to be wrong as a principle. This is (although far, far more grave circumstances), very similar!
 
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German DW News had an interview with a former foreign minister from Poland, last night.
He was very angry with those EU nations who are refusing to take further action, such as banning Russia from SWIFT, or in the case of Germany, refusing to supply military equipment and arms to Ukraine.
He implored them to consider that they have bankrolled Putin’s ambitions and were effectively continuing to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and the deaths of many of its innocent citizens.
Donald Tusk had earlier made similar strong comments, saying those particular nations (looking at you Germany and others) should hold their heads in shame.

Poland and the Baltic states are terrified by these events and are becoming increasingly angry by the reluctance to react decisively and in the strongest possible way by other EU nations.

German newspapers are saying that 50 years of German successive foreign policy towards Russia and Eastern Europe, from Ostpolitik to the present day, now lies in tatters.
 

Yew

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In other news, it seems that 11 Labour MPs had signed a statement by the Stop the War Coalition which amongst other things, accuses the UK Government of 'sabre rattling' over Ukraine, opposes Ukraine's membership of NATO and calls on the Ukraine and Russia to resolve their differences by dialogue and implementation of the Minsk-2 agreement. Those MPs have now withdrawn their signatures - but only after Keir Starmer threatened them with withdrawal of the Labour whip if they didn't, from which we can infer they possibly withdrew their names more out of a sense of political survival than from any genuine change of heart.

The MPs were: Diane Abbott, John McDonnell, Richard Burgon, Ian Lavery, Beth Winter, Zarah Sultana, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Apsana Begum, Mick Whitley, Tahir Ali, and Ian Mearns. Unsurprisingly, Jeremy Corbyn also signed it (and has not withdrawn his signature), as did Claudia Webbe - both of whom now sit as independents.

(The letter is here) (To be fair, the letter was dated a week ago, so before the Russian invasion. But on the other hand, it's still there)
Indeed, I think the section I've put in bold is the key point; a week ago calling for deescalation and talks was a fairly rational and reasonable thing to do.
 

takno

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German DW News had an interview with a former foreign minister from Poland, last night.
He was very angry with those EU nations who are refusing to take further action, such as banning Russia from SWIFT, or in the case of Germany, refusing to supply military equipment and arms to Ukraine.
He implored them to consider that they have bankrolled Putin’s ambitions and were effectively continuing to bankroll the invasion of Ukraine and the deaths of many of its innocent citizens.
Donald Tusk had earlier made similar strong comments, saying those particular nations (looking at you Germany and others) should hold their heads in shame.

Poland and the Baltic states are terrified by these events and are becoming increasingly angry by the reluctance to react decisively and in the strongest possible way by other EU nations.

German newspapers are saying that 50 years of German successive foreign policy towards Russia and Eastern Europe, from Ostpolitik to the present day, now lies in tatters.
Germany has been a favourite target of the current Polish government for a while. The previous German government, while problematically obsessed with their own economy at the cost of the rest of Europe, generally didn't deserve that targeting. The current German government, with their contingent of Green dinosaurs, are starting to be genuinely bad neighbours.

The German government seem willing to throw the entire European project under a bus, just so that they can cling on to their failed energy policy and not admit that they were wrong. That will rightly raise the ire of a great many Germans, and anybody who values the principles of the EU
 

JamesT

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Indeed, I think the section I've put in bold is the key point; a week ago calling for deescalation and talks was a fairly rational and reasonable thing to do.
I think https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/...the-war-statement-on-the-crisis-over-ukraine/ is the letter in question. (The previous link was to the homepage).
It appears to call for de-escalation pretty much only on the side of the West and paints NATO as the aggressors. Somehow it slipped their mind to condemn the Russian armed forces that were poised to invade.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Indeed, I think the section I've put in bold is the key point; a week ago calling for deescalation and talks was a fairly rational and reasonable thing to do.

(EDITED): Not sure if your reply was based on my linking to the wrong statement, but as a general point: Calling for talks and de-escalation, if stated out of context sounds very rational, but when you put it in a context of a statement that rather obviously blames NATO and the West for everything, ignoring that it was actually entirely Russia that was threatening a sovereign nation, it becomes a lot less rational and reasonable, even given that Russia hadn't at that point actually invaded.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Yew

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(EDITED): Not sure if your reply was based on my linking to the wrong statement, but as a general point: Calling for talks and de-escalation, if stated out of context sounds very rational, but when you put it in a context of a statement that rather obviously blames NATO and the West for everything, ignoring that it was actually entirely Russia that was threatening a sovereign nation, it becomes a lot less rational and reasonable, even given that Russia hadn't at that point actually invaded.
I don't think that Vladimir Putin would have paid much attention to Jeremy Corbyn...
 

Annetts key

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It really is time for Germany to make up its mind. I think they should take the financial hit and use some of their wealth and cut many of their trade ties with Russia.

A country that has substantial trade with another and which drastically cuts this trade will have a significant impact. Yes, it will affect both countries and their economies, but Germany is strong enough to survive and find other countries to trade with.

And it’s not my intention to single out Germany, the same principles should apply to other countries that trade with Russia. Although some of them may find it significantly more difficult. Especially in particular sectors.

But if a significant number, or even better, a majority of countries did significantly cut trade with Russia, it definitely will hurt Russia.

And at the moment, we need maximum practical economic impact.
 

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