Russia invades Ukraine

[dgl]

Putin will have some of the best security a world leader could possibly have. Any drone/plane/tank/soldier/spy who gets anywhere near him will be taken out very swiftly. Apparently he's even kept his own health matters very secret, leading to suspicions one of the reason's he's acting like this now is he believes he doesn't physically have long left to cement a legacy he wants.

That's why it'd probably have to be done by someone close to him, which given current the current situation might just be plausible.

 

[kristiang85]

I wonder if the only solution is to take out Putin, to be honest it seems like he's not all there and if we (the west) did intervene and were sucessful would he give up or just see his people as expendable and to try and win at any cost. Even moreso if you could get a Russian to do it which I don't think would be too hard, you could probably get someone close to him to do it as they probabaly don't want to be in this mess.
He seems to be doing a Boris and possibly doing something just to take the heat off him.
At the moment is seems like violence is the only thing Putin will listen too so violence, it seems, he must experience.

Also cyber warfare seems like another good option, I bet we are better placed to kill their systems than they are ours as we have more advanced technology, plus if we could cut his comms systems then that would go someway to hindering his army.

Taking out Putin isn't as easy as it sounds. Look up at the amount of times the US tried to take our Castro, or even internal attempts on Hitler - these dictators know how to stay alive.

And to be honest it would only rally more of the Russian population to his beliefs and bolster the army. Human beings have a weird tendency to align with their leaders in a crisis, even if it is for completely irrational reasons, and Putin and his media have already set this up psychologically.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I maybe wrong but I thought NATO wasn't getting directly involved because NATO is a defensive treaty and can only act if a NATO country was attacked? Nothing to do with not our war not our problem.

Yes you're right. I should have worded my post slightly differently. I was talking about individual NATO countries - and particularly the UK and the USA - rather than NATO the organisation.

 

[Scotrail314209]

With regards Putin, and to borrow a doctor who comment, "don't you think he looks tired?"

We need the doctor to mutter these words.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Taking out Putin isn't as easy as it sounds. Look up at the amount of times the US tried to take our Castro, or even internal attempts on Hitler - these dictators know how to stay alive.

And to be honest it would only rally more of the Russian population to his beliefs and bolster the army. Human beings have a weird tendency to align with their leaders in a crisis, even if it is for completely irrational reasons, and Putin and his media have already set this up psychologically.

It would also open up a whole new dangerous game where countries like China, Iran or North Korea conclude that it's perfectly legitimate and reasonable to try to have other world leaders assassinated, because the West has set the precedent. That would have a chilling impact on our democracies if all our MPs and ministers had to go around, not just worried by terrorist attacks from within the UK but also worried about organised assassination attempts by other countries. Tempting as it is to want to see Putin dead (I for one would not mourn him), I think the only practical way forward is to focus on making sure his economy suffers, and his military forces ultimately get defeated on the battlefield (difficult though that is). Doing whatever we can to support what opposition there is within Russia wouldn't hurt too.

 

[birchesgreen]

I always regard talk about taking out other country's leaders the sort of thing you get from people who've seen too many bad movies.

 

[Gloster]

Putin’s biggest threat lies with the Russian military. At the moment the Generals are probably loving the opportunity to use their hardware and are hopeful of a quick victory. However, if it turns sour, either due to a stronger response by the Ukrainians than expected or if it spirals down into an Afghanistan-style resistance war with the body bags coming back in such numbers that the death toll can’t be hidden, then they may be looking for a way to exit. Passing the blame onto the politician who got them there and removing him ‘in the people’s name’ would be a good piece of theatre.

 

[birchesgreen]

A mysterious "illness" or unfortunate "accident" usually does the trick.

 

[GS250]

Those comments about 'consequences' for countries who intervene little more than verbal bullying. So even if, he was to be hinting at a nuclear response to the UK for example, whatever he sent would be met in kind due to MAD. With two Trident submarines permanently at sea, that's 80 warheads on their way to Russia. Maybe 120 if three subs were at sea. They may be able to turn the UK into a radioactive theme park but 80x 100kt warheads would render Russia utterly finished as a functional country. Around half of the population would be gone after a few weeks and the rest suffering the after effects. There would be no coming back from that kind of devastation. And that's just if the UK fired back. Putin knows this. Would he want that as his legacy? The man who destroyed Russia?

It's a chilling topic but I genuinely believe MAD will prevent any nuclear escalation.

 

[adc82140]

Unfortunately the exit of Putin would not lead to President Navalny, nice as that would be. Putin has tentacles right across Russian politics.

The "consequences" line from Putin is equal to the Trumpian "Fire and Fury" speech.

 

[brad465]

Putin’s biggest threat lies with the Russian military. At the moment the Generals are probably loving the opportunity to use their hardware and are hopeful of a quick victory. However, if it turns sour, either due to a stronger response by the Ukrainians than expected or if it spirals down into an Afghanistan-style resistance war with the body bags coming back in such numbers that the death toll can’t be hidden, then they may be looking for a way to exit. Passing the blame onto the politician who got them there and removing him ‘in the people’s name’ would be a good piece of theatre.

According to some reports that's happened to a platoon of the 74th Motor Rifles brigade of the Russian army, which has apparently surrendered:

Ukraine's envoy to U.S. urges harsh world response to Russian assault

Ukraine's ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said on Thursday that all Ukrainians would resist Russia's invasion of their country and called for a tough international response to the assault.

www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Ukraine's ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova said on Thursday that all Ukrainians would resist Russia's invasion of their country and called for a tough international response to the assault.

Ukraine's military was defending the country in accordance with international law, Markarova said at a news conference at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington after Russia launched its attack. read more

"The combat spirit of Ukrainian military is high," she said. "We are fighting, we will be fighting - not only our brave and motivated military but all Ukrainians."

Ukrainian forces have downed two Russian helicopters and seven other Russian aircraft and destroyed several Russian trucks, and a platoon from Russia's 74th Motor Rifles Brigade has surrendered, she said.

Markarova cited earlier figures that Russian attacks had killed 40 Ukrainian servicemen and dozens of civilians and injured several dozed civilians.

She urged other countries to join Ukraine in cutting diplomatic ties with Russia and to impose sanctions and for international organizations to consider excluding Russia from their membership.

"Only our united steps can stop (Russian President) Vladimir Putin and Russian Federation from this attack on Ukraine, from this war, but also from attacking anyone else in the free world,” she said.

“We really hope these devastating sanctions will be appropriate for this moment and Russia will clearly feel that they cannot wage war on an independent sovereign country, because the future of the world order depends on this," she added.

The United States was expected to impose new sanctions on Thursday, after a first round of sanctions on Tuesday in response to Russia recognizing two breakaway Ukrainian provinces. read more

Ukraine is not a member of the NATO alliance, but has been receiving military aid and training from Western countries.

“We do not expect anyone to fight for us, but we expect all the help and all the response the West can send to us,” Markarova said while adding Ukraine was requesting, and would appreciate, peacekeeping operations.

Of course this would need to be replicated more widely to have any positive effect, but the fact this happened on the first day is in a good way surprising.

 

[Busaholic]

With regards Putin, and to borrow a doctor who comment, "don't you think he looks tired?"

Pumped full of steroids: he won't reach old age, I'm glad to say.

 

[Gloster]

Pumped full of steroids: he won't reach old age, I'm glad to say.

I am not worried whether his behaviour will or will not allow him to reach old age. I am worried whether his behaviour will not allow me to reach old age.

 

[DanNCL]

Don’t know how true it is, I have seen reports that the world’s largest aircraft, the Antonov AN225, may have been destroyed at Hostomel airport today. Can anyone confirm?

 

[Peterthegreat]

I am not worried whether his behaviour will or will not allow him to reach old age. I am worried whether his behaviour will not allow me to reach old age.

I agree. Until a few weeks ago I thought Putin was general sane and rational (at least from a Russian point of view). His behaviour since then has been alarming. It is difficult to assess what he thinks will happen next - never mind what will happen.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Don’t know how true it is, I have seen reports that the world’s largest aircraft, the Antonov AN225, may have been destroyed at Hostomel airport today. Can anyone confirm?

One of the pilots confirmed this as false.
https://twitter.com/DjsAviation/status/1496895351105613826?t=4oKRZRvz_QEaZGobqwsKww&s=19

UPDATE REGARDING AN-225: As per a captain for Antonov Airlines publishing updates on Facebook, the AN-225 is not damaged and is intact, according to him. In saying that, Russian forces have taken the airport the aircraft is located at. Of course, we await to hear more.

 

[GS250]

Don’t know how true it is, I have seen reports that the world’s largest aircraft, the Antonov AN225, may have been destroyed at Hostomel airport today. Can anyone confirm?

Given that some news outlets claimed an F16 was taking part in Russian Air raids......

 

[Peterthegreat]

Given that some news outlets claimed an F16 was taking part in Russian Air raids......

To paraphrase Samuel Johnson and others "the first casualty of war is truth".

 

[DanNCL]

One of the pilots confirmed this as false.
https://twitter.com/DjsAviation/status/1496895351105613826?t=4oKRZRvz_QEaZGobqwsKww&s=19

Given that some news outlets claimed an F16 was taking part in Russian Air raids......

Normally I'd say that this was good news, however these aren't normal times and sadly the reality is that innocent Ukrainians will have lost their lives in that air raid on Hostomel instead. As unique as the AN225 is, better to lose that than even more people.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Normally I'd say that this was good news, however these aren't normal times and sadly the reality is that innocent Ukrainians will have lost their lives in that air raid on Hostomel instead. As unique as the AN225 is, better to lose that than even more people.

You raise a good point. That fast jet firing a missile at an apartment block was just wrong.

 

[Ediswan]

One of the pilots confirmed this as false.
https://twitter.com/DjsAviation/status/1496895351105613826?t=4oKRZRvz_QEaZGobqwsKww&s=19

AN-225 is best quality Soviet engineering. It is not a novelty, it pays its way moving large/heavy cargo. One would hope Putin knows the heritage and would prefer it kept in working order.

 

[Gloster]

The BBC news website is debunking various images posted on line through its Reality Check. There are also similar items on the fullfact.org site.

 

[Spamcan81]

Don’t know how true it is, I have seen reports that the world’s largest aircraft, the Antonov AN225, may have been destroyed at Hostomel airport today. Can anyone confirm?

Given the human tragedy that's unfolding, does it really matter what's happened to the An-225?

 

[najaB]

I always regard talk about taking out other country's leaders the sort of thing you get from people who've seen too many bad movies.

Agreed. It's not going to happen. If Putin is going to be removed from power any time soon it will be by the Russians - when those around him start to feel the wind blowing against him they will turn to follow it.

 

[DanNCL]

Given the human tragedy that's unfolding, does it really matter what's happened to the An-225?

Obviously the human tragedy is considerably more important. As I mentioned in my previous post, as sad as it would be to lose the An-225, better to lose that than more innocent Ukrainians.

 

[brad465]

Agreed. It's not going to happen. If Putin is going to be removed from power any time soon it will be by the Russians - when those around him start to feel the wind blowing against him they will turn to follow it.

Large Protests in Russian cities have broken out in opposition to this invasion and are being reported widely on Twitter and some mainstream media sites. They would need to be sustained for a while in conjunction with the invasion not going to plan to see Putin's downfall.

 

[philosopher]

Large Protests in Russian cities have broken out in opposition to this invasion and are being reported widely on Twitter and some mainstream media sites. They would need to be sustained for a while in conjunction with the invasion not going to plan to see Putin's downfall.

I personally think Putin may have overplayed his hand here, in that I just do not think this war is popular in Russia. Putin I think is using this war to mask deep seated problems in Russia, such as massive inequality and an unbalanced economy. Therefore the war pretty much has to go well for Putin, or he is in further trouble.

Russia will very likely conquer Ukraine, however Russia will then probably face a Ukrainian insurgency, in a similar fashion to what was faced by the US in Iraq. Russia will get bogged down in an unwinnable conflict, Russian causalities will mount and this coupled with the impact of sanctions will cause the opposition to Putin to intensify.

 

[Busaholic]

To paraphrase Samuel Johnson and others "the first casualty of war is truth".

The Pravda (truth) newspaper is now 110 years old and still being published in Russia by the Communist Party, which Putin sees fit to allow to continue so long as they don't threaten his position.

What Putin really hates is to be compared to Hitler: comparison to Stalin bothers him not a jot, in fact he probably revels in it. I compared him to Hitler on this forum years ago, for which I got flack, but I believe his evilness probably has no current equal.

 

[DustyBin]

I personally think Putin may have overplayed his hand here, in that I just do not think this war is popular in Russia. Putin I think is using this war to mask deep seated problems in Russia, such as massive inequality and an unbalanced economy. Therefore the war pretty much has to go well for Putin, or he is in further trouble.

Russia will very likely conquer Ukraine, however Russia will then probably face a Ukrainian insurgency, in a similar fashion to what was faced by the US in Iraq. Russia will get bogged down in an unwinnable conflict, Russian causalities will mount and this coupled with the impact of sanctions will cause the opposition to Putin to intensify.

I think you’re right. Going back to the threats he made to the rest of the world, I suspect he knows it’s game over for him if NATO or a major Western power decides to get involved and messes up his invasion plans (which they undoubtably would).

I also agree with your second paragraph. He’ll most likely take Kyiv, insert a puppet government and declare an end to the conflict having “brought peace” to Ukraine, but in reality he’ll face a never ending guerrilla war waged by extremely determined Ukrainians armed with the latest Western hardware; a nightmare scenario in itself (for Putin).

 

[Peterthegreat]

I think you’re right. Going back to the threats he made to the rest of the world, I suspect he knows it’s game over for him if NATO or a major Western power decides to get involved and messes up his invasion plans (which they undoubtably would).

I also agree with your second paragraph. He’ll most likely take Kyiv, insert a puppet government and declare an end to the conflict having “brought peace” to Ukraine, but in reality he’ll face a never ending guerrilla war waged by extremely determined Ukrainians armed with the latest Western hardware; a nightmare scenario in itself (for Putin).

I think the taking of Kiev (if it happens) will be very bloody on all sides. Hopefully public opinion in Russia will become unstoppable. The Ukrainians are fellow Russians (according to Putin himself). This will not be like Chechnya where there was a "terrorist" element.
I also think the knowledge by both the US and the UK regarding the invasion was more than just gained by satellite.