Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

NATO taking direct military action in Ukraine would be the start of WW3.

As much as I don’t like it we can’t get involved militarily. For the record we (i.e. NATO) almost certainly could drive Russia out but it would invoke wider conflict and be an absolute mess so isn’t even an option. “Toppled from within” as per @BananaRepublic’s post it the best solution here.

 

[birchesgreen]

This is nonsense. Russia has invaded an independent, sovereign nation. It is not for them to decide on foreign policy of other nations.

True but its probably best not to go down that road considering the West's actions over the last few decades in various places.

 

[AlterEgo]

This is nonsense. Russia has invaded an independent, sovereign nation. It is not for them to decide on foreign policy of other nations. It is clear from your posts that at best you see Ukraine as a semi autonomous principality of Russia ( with foreign policy dictated by the Kremlin) and at worst a subsumed ( by force if necessary) part of Russia. It is also illustrative that you casually dismiss the self determination of the Ukrainians and consider thier nation to be an object that the Kremlin may deal with as it wishes

Just call it pro-imperialism, that's what it is.

 

[DarloRich]

True but its probably best not to go down that road considering the West's actions over the last few decades in various places.

Perhaps - but two wrongs don't make a right. We also haven't invaded a democratic European country for a couple of years!

Just call it pro-imperialism, that's what it is.

Agreed - much more succinct!

 

[Simon11]

With Russia providing a huge amount of gas to Europe, I have been wondering if they are considering stopping supplies.

Yes, Russia would lose a huge amount of money but it would seriously impact Europe. Not seen much media noise on the risk of this…

 

[birchesgreen]

So it looks like the Russians are trying to reach Kyiv in a pincer movement, and surround the bulk of the Ukrainian forces which are in the East. Interesting, Putin is going in much harder than most suspected.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==

With Russia providing a huge amount of gas to Europe, I have been wondering if they are considering stopping supplies.

Yes, Russia would lose a huge amount of money but it would seriously impact Europe. Not seen much media noise on the risk of this…

Maybe not, some things are quietly ignored. During the height of the Cold War the US supplied (at a subsidised price!) the USSR with grain after a crop failure.

 

[yorksrob]

But how much of that 'support' is due to ignorance created by a State-controlled media ?

A reasonable amount. However this is why the West needs to exercise its soft power as far as possible.

 

[DarloRich]

I wonder what Johnson will do in response? Cancel a few library tickets? Have the Russian ambassador in for a chat and a place on the naughty step? Lodge a complaint at the UN?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Noting the Putin logic for declaring Ukraine as Russian territory far back in the days when the Tsars held sway, how would he react if the island nation of Japan made similar logic in demands that both Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands were part of Japan, as that particular dispute also goes back centuries.

 

[DustyBin]

So it looks like the Russians are trying to reach Kyiv in a pincer movement, and surround the bulk of the Ukrainian forces which are in the East. Interesting, Putin is going in much harder than most suspected.

To be honest the warning signs were all there; mass mobilisation, large scale exercises etc. I thought if he did it he’d really do it, although I didn’t necessarily think he’d go for the whole of Ukraine.

 

[nanstallon]

Sadly, the consequences of the neo-fascist coup in Kiev exactly 8 years ago are coming home to roost. Russia has had enough of what it perceives as an insolent regime under the direction of Brussels and Washington, and now seems to have decided to use all available means to bring it to heel. The Ukraine is waking up to smell the coffee.

We really do live in the post-truth age, don't we? Ukraine has held two open elections since the so-called 'neo-fascist coup'. Which is a lot more than can be said for Russia.

The West has been like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a Russian tank. Time for us to wake up to smell the coffee before it's too late.

 

[southern442]

NATO taking direct military action in Ukraine would be the start of WW3.

By this logic I would argue that World War 3 has been going on for the past 20 years or so given the constant barrage of proxy wars in the middle east.

One of the very reasons that Putin has been getting so worked up about Ukraine is because he didn't want a border with NATO (assuming Ukraine was going to join). So it would make sense that he doesn't intend to occupy it but rather just put up a Soviet-style puppet government or something of the sorts. But it's anyone's guess I suppose.

One can hope that the sanctions etc that follow will further destabilise Putin's position, and I hope that this is less of a beginning and more of the final battle cry from a dictator on the way out. Certain signs leave room for this sort of optimism but of course the situation is very dire right now. Let us hope that the west can successfully form a united front against this aggression (save for the one member on this forum who appears to be a walking talking copy of Pravda!)

 

[birchesgreen]

Noting the Putin logic for declaring Ukraine as Russian territory far back in the days when the Tsars held sway, how would he react if the island nation of Japan made similar logic in demands that both Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands were part of Japan, as that particular dispute also goes back centuries.

Nationalism has a peculiar logic all of it's own

 

[DanNCL]

Noting the Putin logic for declaring Ukraine as Russian territory far back in the days when the Tsars held sway, how would he react if the island nation of Japan made similar logic in demands that both Sakhalin island and the Kuril islands were part of Japan, as that particular dispute also goes back centuries.

Indeed on the same principle how would Putin like it if Germany made similar logic in demands that Kaliningrad were part of Germany.

 

[nanstallon]

There is something to be said that deposing of Putin could be an excellent catalyst to sorting out some of the structural problems affecting free societies, much as WW2 led to the formation of the welfare state.

Perhaps deposing this twerp could be the warm-up to dealing with the bigger global issues of global heating and inequality?

A great idea, but how do we achieve it?

 

[DanNCL]

One of the very reasons that Putin has been getting so worked up about Ukraine is because he didn't want a border with NATO (assuming Ukraine was going to join). So it would make sense that he doesn't intend to occupy it but rather just put up a Soviet-style puppet government or something of the sorts. But it's anyone's guess I suppose.

Russia of course already has borders with NATO - the Russian mainland bordering the NATO member states of Norway, Estonia and Latvia, and Kaliningrad bordering the NATO member states of Lithuania and Poland.

 

[AlterEgo]

To be honest the warning signs were all there; mass mobilisation, large scale exercises etc. I thought if he did it he’d really do it, although I didn’t necessarily think he’d go for the whole of Ukraine.

Yes, I was for a while unsure if he'd do anything but thought he'd just stay east of the Dnieper if he did.

I became more sure of an invasion after he "recognised" the breakaway states and cancelled my Russian travel plans this year because I can see the writing on the wall for Russian-Western relations.

 

[YorkshireBear]

By this logic I would argue that World War 3 has been going on for the past 20 years or so given the constant barrage of proxy wars in the middle east.

One of the very reasons that Putin has been getting so worked up about Ukraine is because he didn't want a border with NATO (assuming Ukraine was going to join). So it would make sense that he doesn't intend to occupy it but rather just put up a Soviet-style puppet government or something of the sorts. But it's anyone's guess I suppose.

One can hope that the sanctions etc that follow will further destabilise Putin's position, and I hope that this is less of a beginning and more of the final battle cry from a dictator on the way out. Certain signs leave room for this sort of optimism but of course the situation is very dire right now. Let us hope that the west can successfully form a united front against this aggression (save for the one member on this forum who appears to be a walking talking copy of Pravda!)

Hold on, Putin already has a border with NATO as Russia borders Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? So why was the Ukraine one so hard to palate?

Beaten to it and forgot Norway!

 

[najaB]

And it's Ukraine, not The Ukraine, as you've been told so many times.

Continuing to refer to the country of Ukraine with the definite article betrays a certain mindset that wouldn't be far out of sync with one Mr V Putin.

 

[southern442]

Russia of course already has borders with NATO - the Russian mainland bordering the NATO member states of Norway, Estonia and Latvia, and Kaliningrad bordering the NATO member states of Lithuania and Poland.

Hold on, Putin already has a border with NATO as Russia borders Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? So why was the Ukraine one so hard to palate?

Beaten to it and forgot Norway!

This is true actually. I suppose the issue for him with Ukraine being in NATO would have been simply because he had his eye on it, and he was probably already miffed enough about NATO membership of the Baltic states.

 

[Gathursty]

We ask all Russians to search their souls and ask them has Putin truly bought them happiness and economic freedom. Has Putin been graceful in electoral defeat? Has Putin allowed freedom of thought to all even those who disagree with them?

We ask all Russians who are common and decent who go about their daily business to distance themselves from those who tow the Putin dogma.

We ask all Russians who seek freedom and a life without the jackboot of Putin's megalomania to leave Russia so that we can counterstrike with the most minimum of casualties. If members of the Douma and Kremlin staff have felt scared, belittled and blackmailed to follow orders, they will be helped if they leave. For those remaining with love for Putin and his warped view of the world, prepare for economic devastation at the very least.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

A great idea, but how do we achieve it?

Where is John Rambo when you need him?

 

[alex397]

Hold on, Putin already has a border with NATO as Russia borders Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia? So why was the Ukraine one so hard to palate?

Beaten to it and forgot Norway!

To be pedantic, it doesn’t border Poland. Although Belarus does, and that’s pretty much a puppet state of Russia!

 

[YorkshireBear]

To be pedantic, it doesn’t border Poland. Although Belarus does, and that’s pretty much a puppet state of Russia!

I was referring to the Kaliningrad Oblast but yes Belarus is basically a puppet as proven by the invasion also coming from the North of Kyiv

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

One advantage of being an old-timer is that whilst recent memory sometimes fails you, you have no problems in remembering matters from decades ago quite clearly. For those old enough to have watched "That was the week that was", my 84 year-old neighbour was chatting to me this morning with regards to current Putin moves, remembers a satirical song ditty based on the words and tune of "God rest ye, merry gentlemen" sang on an episode of that programme....
"God rest ye, merry gentlemen,
Lie safely in your bed,
The independent British bomb
Is flying overhead,
It's off to kill the Russians
When the rest of us are dead.
Oh tidings of comfort and joy, comfort and joy,
Of tidings of comfort and joy"

 

[najaB]

Cyber warfare would be absolutely massive in a war with Russia, and no doubt China would assist Putin.

That isn't a given. While China and Russia both see "the West" as adversaries their overall goals don't align completely. Russia and China are "frenemies" at best.

 

[alex397]

I feel I should add that many Russians hate Putin, or don’t particularly like him. That’s the impression I get from documentaries and YouTube videos where locals have been interviewed. Many Russians seem to reminisce about the last few years of the USSR, when the country became a little more sane, and can see how the Putin government has really let them down. Life was generally much better for Russians then.
I’ve seen young Russian YouTubers ranting about Putin. Although young Russian YouTubers are not really representative of the whole Russian population, and likely to be more left leaning.

And similar in Belarus, where we saw huge protests against the government, which were eventually repressed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==

I was referring to the Kaliningrad Oblast but yes Belarus is basically a puppet as proven by the invasion also coming from the North of Kyiv

Ah of course - how could I forget! Apologies.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I'm not well-educated on this topic, so I'm not going to comment much and risk sounding ignorant.
I just want to say that I'm very, very sad to see such a desperate situation in Ukraine, with much violence and many deaths already. The situation scares me very much, and I hope with all my heart that we do not find ourselves in a devastating full on war.

 

[southern442]

I feel I should add that many Russians hate Putin, or don’t particularly like him. That’s the impression I get from documentaries and YouTube videos where locals have been interviewed. Many Russians seem to reminisce about the last few years of the USSR, when the country became a little more sane, and can see how the Putin government has really let them down. Life was generally much better for Russians then.
I’ve seen young Russian YouTubers ranting about Putin. Although young Russian YouTubers are not really representative of the whole Russian population, and likely to be more left leaning.

And similar in Belarus, where we saw huge protests against the government, which were eventually repressed.

BBC News has described the reaction to the invasion within Russia as that of 'Shock, horror and bewilderment', perhaps suggesting that there is some level of, if not substantial opposition to, this invasion amongst Russian citizens. Obviously personal mandates do not matter so much there, but I do get the sense that if/when public mood overwhelmingly turns against Putin, it will certainly be felt to some extent.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

To be pedantic, it doesn’t border Poland. Although Belarus does, and that’s pretty much a puppet state of Russia!

If you look at the jointly conjoined land areas of both Belarus and Ukraine, they do make a sizeable part of that area of Europe.