Wisbech to March line consultation.

[William3000]

According to this article, there is likely to be a consultation on reopening Wisbech to March. It seems to me there are probably four options:

1) heavy rail
2) light rail
3) guided bus/very light rail
4) bus service improvements

Given the lack of business cases to apparently stack up for light rail between say Cambridge and Haverhill, I struggle to see how a Wisbech to March business case stacks up but nevertheless it would be good to see something reopened.

The advantage of heavy rail is obviously through trains to Cambridge and Possibly Peterborough. Wisbech’s population is about 30,000, not that much smaller than King’s Lynn with its 40,000 population and the latter gets a direct link to London proposed to be increased to half hourly. Disadvantage is presumably cost and the fact that Wisbech’s station would inevitably be in an industrial area some distance from the town centre. March Station probably has enough capacity with the existing two platforms to accommodate this but there are several redundant platforms that could be brought back into use.

Light rail seems more flexible and potentially could penetrate Wisbech town centre and would make it easier to retain existing level crossings - particularly the A47, which is increasingly busy. It would however require a change at March, which itself doesn’t have the best service. This option would inevitably require the reopening of disused platforms for light rail.

A busway can never be ruled out and Cambridgeshire has a history of building busways but it almost gets to the point that you think why not just travel on conventional roads which are not exactly busy in the area.

With costs, I can see this just ending up with improved local bus services. It’s not an affluent area and Cambridgeshire is a bit like the UK in microcosm - Cambridge being like London - booming and buoyant while Wisbech can feel peripheral and left behind.

I hope a rail option is delivered to this historic Georgian town but I remain unconvinced it will happen.

Wisbech Rail project chugs along with news it could involve 'light rail' option

The long-awaited 'Wisbech Rail Project' could move to public consultation later this year and is likely to be some sort of 'light rail' option.

www.fenlandcitizen.co.uk

 

[Southern Dvr]

unless it’s going to form part of a High Speed Line I don’t think there’s any money in the kitty for new projects. My understanding at the moment is the priority is to try and save what we have not try and get more.

 

[A0]

I suspect the economic case for this hasn't improved since the last thread on it about 16 months ago.

Wisbech-March line reopening cost increase to £200m

In The Cambs Times https://www.cambstimes.co.uk/news/plenty-of-ifs-in-200m-fenland-rail-link-proposals-1-6543479 Note that only seven of the level crossings are on public roads, the rest are farm crossings. The £200m projected cost of re-instating the seven-mile long line to March is dwarfed...

www.railforums.co.uk

And I think Blad Rick's post #588 responding to claims about this one having a goid Business Case sums it up quite nicely:

"I’m afraid it doesn’t, at all. The business case done for the proponents demonstrates a good case to increase the train service between March and Cambridge, assuming that someone else pays for the necessary works at Ely. Extending that service to Wisbech makes the case considerably worse, as you pay a lot more for it, and gain very little additional benefit. In this case, the whole is worth less than the sum of the parts."

 

[Bald Rick]

It makes me chuckle / frustrated that people who really should know better keep saying that this project has a “strong” business case, when it patently and demonstrably does not.

It also makes me chuckle when I read “if we get approval...” very little chance of DfT coughing any money for this. They have seen through the “business case” for the poorly disguised confidence trick that it is.

The answer here, if any, is an express bus/coach from central Wisbech to March station, and interavailable fares. This could be implemented in a matter of weeks if the will was there, rather than wasting more money to try and justify a project that is not justifiable. Happily Wisbech has long been in the rail fares system.

 

[A0]

It makes me chuckle / frustrated that people who really should know better keep saying that this project has a “strong” business case, when it patently and demonstrably does not.

It also makes me chuckle when I read “if we get approval...” very little chance of DfT coughing any money for this. They have seen through the “business case” for the poorly disguised confidence trick that it is.

The answer here, if any, is an express bus/coach from central Wisbech to March station, and interavailable fares. This could be implemented in a matter of weeks if the will was there, rather than wasting more money to try and justify a project that is not justifiable. Happily Wisbech has long been in the rail fares system.

I too chuckle when I see things like this is the linked article "the Combined Authority is ready to go to the next stage, which if given the go-ahead and if land was available would see a 'heavy rail' scheme with full-barrier crossings, running alongside some form of 'light rail' scheme with automated half-barrier crossings"

So what on earth is that supposed to mean? It is concurrently light rail and heavy rail? Eh?

The fact that it failed to secure RYR funding "An application for funding from the DfT via its ‘Restoring Railways Fund’ had failed because the cost was greater than the Government had envisaged." ought to be ringing alarm bells very, very loudly.

IMHO Mr Rowland Potter is, to put it politely, urinating in the wind and probably ought not be doing the job he is, no doubt, handsomely paid for by the taxpayer.

 

[bluenoxid]

The fact that it failed to secure RYR funding "An application for funding from the DfT via its ‘Restoring Railways Fund’ had failed because the cost was greater than the Government had envisaged." ought to be ringing alarm bells very, very loudly.

It is not their fault that those in Westminster do not share their vision.

There is lots of this as established support groups for the no-hoper brigade of multi-mile reopening projects get the feedback that they don’t want. Unfortunately, instead of understanding a no, there’s lots of talk about the business case that is weak as if more work shifting numbers on the spreadsheet will deliver a miracle.

Rowland Potter will be taking directions on the proposal from leadership in his organisation. If they wanted to extend the M11 to Wisbech, he would be presenting the case for that.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

According to this article, there is likely to be a consultation on reopening Wisbech to March. It seems to me there are probably four options:

1) heavy rail
2) light rail
3) guided bus/very light rail
4) bus service improvements

Surely a fifth option is funding being frittered away on consultations, and then nothing still happening.

 

[6Gman]

I too chuckle when I see things like this is the linked article "the Combined Authority is ready to go to the next stage, which if given the go-ahead and if land was available would see a 'heavy rail' scheme with full-barrier crossings, running alongside some form of 'light rail' scheme with automated half-barrier crossings"

So what on earth is that supposed to mean? It is concurrently light rail and heavy rail? Eh?

I assume it means that at the next stage these two options would be explored (i.e. busway and bus improvements excluded).

 

[A0]

Surely a fifth option is funding being frittered away on consultations, and then nothing still happening.

Ironically number 4 could be delivered almost immediately with minimal outlay, no new infrastructure and probably within the authority's own budget - which begs the question why they aren't saving public money and pursuing that option.

 

[Bald Rick]

Ironically number 4 could be delivered almost immediately with minimal outlay, no new infrastructure and probably within the authority's own budget - which begs the question why they aren't saving public money and pursuing that option.

Well exactly. I only wish I lived there and I’d be writing to my MP and Mayor accordingly.

Perhaps someone local should do an FOI to request details of the cost / benefit assessment of a dedicated express bus option.

 

[A0]

Well exactly. I only wish I lived there and I’d be writing to my MP and Mayor accordingly.

Perhaps someone local should do an FOI to request details of the cost / benefit assessment of a dedicated express bus option.

I wonder if @berwicksfinest is still around here and living in Wisbech....... A quick email to those bodies could yield some interesting results.

 

[berwicksfinest]

Yes I am still here !!

Yes still living in the Federal Republic of Wisbeckistan.

To be fair I haven't kept up with this, (promise I'll read back ). As far as I'm aware, no bus plans have been mentioned. Locally there seems to much more of a fight with planning permission of a incinerator. Transportation is pretty low on the agenda, I mean they haven't even sorted th A47 at Guyhirn.

Even regards the Bramley Line. seems particularly quiet.

 

[Irascible]

£200m? good lord. That manages to dwarf the roughly equally distant Tavistock plan - and Tavistock has a tunnel, and hills & so on... what is that going on.

 

[berwicksfinest]

Right all caught up.

And to be fair, my first thought being, Someone hasn't got enough to do.

What is the main aim ?? Firstly look at the population in Wisbech, where do they work/ commute to ?? I personally know of one person that works in Cambridge, and unless it was a 24 hour day service, it would be of no use. March, mmm again possible but would it be enough to tempt them out of their cars. Peterborough ?? this is my commute and again with a pretty good Excel service would the cost justify the spenditure

My second though these consultancy fees must starting to rack up with very little to show for it

 

[A0]

£200m? good lord. That manages to dwarf the roughly equally distant Tavistock plan - and Tavistock has a tunnel, and hills & so on... what is that going on.

It's about 10 miles, if we use Bald Rick's "wet finger in air" approach of £30-40m a mile then £200m is probably on the light side.

It also suggests if Tavistock's campaigners reckon it can be done for less, they are even less in touch with reality than the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Combined Authority.

 

[Irascible]

It's about 10 miles, if we use Bald Rick's "wet finger in air" approach of £30-40m a mile then £200m is probably on the light side.

It also suggests if Tavistock's campaigners reckon it can be done for less, they are even less in touch with reality than the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough Combined Authority.

I think the last estimate was somewhere around £90m, but I'm really not sure ( possibly £120m ). It was in a document linked recently somewhere I've forgotten. Well under £200m though.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think the last estimate was somewhere around £90m, but I'm really not sure ( possibly £120m ). It was in a document linked recently somewhere I've forgotten. Well under £200m though.

The last estimate for the March - Wisbech line, as per the published ‘Full’ Business Case, was £178m point ie with no risk added. A proper quantified risk assessment has not been done, which for a project purporting to be at “GRIP 3” is a serious omission and enough to set off alarm bells. Essentially it isn’t at GRIP 3.

Because there’s no quantified risk assessment at this stage you need to add Optimism Bias of 56% (as per Government assessment guidance), which makes it £278m. The business case doesn’t mention that number, not surprisingly.

But - that’s at a price basis of Q4 2019 prices. Projects are required to be assessed based on the capital cost at the price basis applicable at the mid point of construction. If Government took leave of its senses and asked for development and consents work to begin tomorrow, construction might be able to start in 2025; let’s be optimistic and say midpoint construction would be Q4 2026. Construction inflation has been c4% pa since 2019, and the costs of fuel and materials is still rising quickly. Let’s assume, optimistically, 3% pa until 2026. That’s compound 25% from Q4 2019 to Q4 2026, which means the estimate, optimistically, will be £347m.

 

[Irascible]

That’s compound 25% from Q4 2019 to Q4 2026, which means the estimate, optimistically, will be £347m.

I would concur with the optimism! perhaps we ought to be adding a pessimism multiplier to these things. I'm going to assume in that case that the March pricing doesn't include modifiers either.

And even at £90m Tavistock would be ridiculous, yes.

 

[Bald Rick]

I would concur with the optimism! perhaps we ought to be adding a pessimism multiplier to these things. I'm going to assume in that case that the March pricing doesn't include modifiers either.

And even at £90m Tavistock would be ridiculous, yes.

my apologies, I misread your earlier post. The figures I quote are for the Wisbech line; I’ll edit my post to make it clear.

Tavistock would be over £100m. Can’t see it happening, the South West region has already had a Beeching restoration, with another two (Wellington & Cullompton) well down the development process. It would hardly be ‘levelling up’ if a fourth project there got money From the limited pot.

 

[camflyer]

Even though I live in the area, I wouldn't put a Wisbech to March line in my top 10 most desirable rail improvements, especially at such a large cost.

 

[TheBigD]

Even though I live in the area, I wouldn't put a Wisbech to March line in my top 10 most desirable rail improvements, especially at such a large cost.

Indeed. Getting the existing XC 170 operated Cambridge to Peterborough via March service up to half hourly would be preferable.

 

[Irascible]

my apologies, I misread your earlier post. The figures I quote are for the Wisbech line; I’ll edit my post to make it clear.

Tavistock would be over £100m. Can’t see it happening, the South West region has already had a Beeching restoration, with another two (Wellington & Cullompton) well down the development process. It would hardly be ‘levelling up’ if a fourth project there got money From the limited pot.

There are more urgent areas to spend £100m of rail money on down in the south-west anyway. I'll wager there's areas of the fens that need some attention too...

But that does lead me back to how on earth this has come out so expensive? crossings to bridges?

 

[yorksrob]

Well exactly. I only wish I lived there and I’d be writing to my MP and Mayor accordingly.

Perhaps someone local should do an FOI to request details of the cost / benefit assessment of a dedicated express bus option.

I see the fantasy world of integrated bus services is still alive, in spite of these not having been achieved anywhere else in the de-regulated bus sector.

 

[Bald Rick]

I see the fantasy world of integrated bus services is still alive, in spite of these not having been achieved anywhere else in the de-regulated bus sector.

It’s going to happen, maybe not here, but somewhere, and soon. It will be the only way of keeping some existing railway open.

 

[yorksrob]

It’s going to happen, maybe not here, but somewhere, and soon. It will be the only way of keeping some existing railway open.

Well if they've not managed to achieve it with a non-rail served settlement, what makes you think they will with one with a railway service where there will be infinitely more political resistance ?

 

[A0]

I see the fantasy world of integrated bus services is still alive, in spite of these not having been achieved anywhere else in the de-regulated bus sector.

It did happen for about 10 years between Corby & Kettering before Corby was reopened. So despite your cynicsm an integrated train/bus link *has* been achieved.

The far bigger fantasy - which is worrying given the amount of public money which is being wasted investigating it - is the claim reopening the Wisbech line is even remotely viable, when in reality it doesn't have a snowflake in Hades chance.

I assume Wisbech is another of these places that you regularly visit and in your opinion clearly justifies an half hourly train service ? You really are the St Jude of the rail network.

 

[stuu]

I see the fantasy world of integrated bus services is still alive, in spite of these not having been achieved anywhere else in the de-regulated bus sector.

Minehead has through-tickets from anywhere on the rail network, and the buses are shown in journey planners and on the screens at Taunton station. So it's definitely not a fantasy. Why it can't be achieved more often is another matter

 

[RT4038]

I see the fantasy world of integrated bus services is still alive, in spite of these not having been achieved anywhere else in the de-regulated bus sector.

Nothing to do with bus de-regulation, and all to do with funding (or the lack of it).

 

[A0]

Minehead has through-tickets from anywhere on the rail network, and the buses are shown in journey planners and on the screens at Taunton station. So it's definitely not a fantasy. Why it can't be achieved more often is another matter

As, indeed, does Wisbech as a quick look at the NR journey planner shows ! However that is for the coach to Peterborough (presumably the First 'Excel' route ?).

That said a dedicated bus link to March is still far cheaper than trying to reinstate the railway and could be achieved in a couple of months by the relevant authorities from within their own budgets - which again begs the question why the Cambs & Peterboro Combined Authority aren't pursuing this route to demonstrate demand and instead are wasting huge amounts of taxpayers money on further studies about the rail viability - especially given they failed in their bid for RYR funding - which suggests they weren't properly prepared.

 

[RT4038]

As, indeed, does Wisbech as a quick look at the NR journey planner shows ! However that is for the coach to Peterborough (presumably the First 'Excel' route ?).

That said a dedicated bus link to March is still far cheaper than trying to reinstate the railway and could be achieved in a couple of months by the relevant authorities from within their own budgets - which again begs the question why the Cambs & Peterboro Combined Authority aren't pursuing this route to demonstrate demand and instead are wasting huge amounts of taxpayers money on further studies about the rail viability - especially given they failed in their bid for RYR funding - which suggests they weren't properly prepared.

The relevant authorities will probably not be able to afford a dedicated bus link from their own budgets (in Public Transport stretched by reduced patronage, and more generally by soaring social care costs). It is always better to promote rail enhancements/re-opening, not because trains are necessarily better for the job in hand, but because their ongoing losses will be funded by central government, rather than bus services which have to be commercial or funded by competing with their statutory responsibilities. Bonkers, and quite unjust to the large proportion of the population not directly served by rail.