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Do you have any actual evidence that the media are presenting Starmer as a hard-left person, unfit to lead the country? Any recent mainstream newspaper reports you could cite that present Starmer in that way? I certainly haven't seen anything like that in what I've read - and I do make an effort to read around various different papers.
I was referencing @daodao's suggestion up-thread that they might do come the next election in #503, rather than saying that the media is doing that currently.
However, on past form, not just with Corbyn but also with Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock, it would not surprise me in the slightest if they did ridicule him in some way.
I was referencing @daodao's suggestion up-thread that they might do come the next election in #503, rather than saying that the media is doing that currently.
However, on past form, not just with Corbyn but also with Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock, it would not surprise me in the slightest if they did ridicule him in some way.
PETER HITCHENS: Starmer has very little chance of getting a majority at the next Election. His only realistic route to No10 is by forming some sort of pact with Nicola Sturgeon.
Should Starmer be leading the Labour party into the next general election, the press/media are likely to focus on his Trotskyite past (he was formerly the editor of the radical magazine Socialist Alternatives), and that he would be in the pocket of Nicola Sturgeon (the most prominent internal enemy of the UK).
I take it you're joking! The Conservative government and their former stooges, the DUP, are doing a grand job of ensuring Northern Ireland won't be part of the U.K. for too much longer, after which we need only refer to GB. Besides which, Buffoon has shown that personal attacks on Starmer only lose him support.
As an Englishman with strong ties to Northern Ireland, the sooner they are allowed to rule themselves the better. Westminster has only ever paid lip service to Ulster
As an Englishman with strong ties to Northern Ireland, the sooner they are allowed to rule themselves the better. Westminster has only ever paid lip service to Ulster
No, I am not. Scottish independence would destroy the UK, in a way that losing the Six Counties would not threaten the integrity of GB. Therefore, the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats (LDs) cannot afford to co-operate with the SNP in any way. Given the animosity between Labour and the LDs, the Labour Party need to win more seats than the Tories and LDs combined in order to have any opportunity of forming the next UK government.
No, I am not. Scottish independence would destroy the UK, in a way that losing the Six Counties would not threaten the integrity of GB. Therefore, the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats (LDs) cannot afford to co-operate with the SNP in any way. Given the animosity between Labour and the LDs, the Labour Party need to win more seats than the Tories and LDs combined in order to have any opportunity of forming the next UK government.
After Brexit, I don't think it's credible for the LDs to prop up the Tories. A non-Corbyn Labour and the LDs working together would be attractive to many supporters of both parties, though probably not many on the Labour left.
As an Englishman with strong ties to Northern Ireland, the sooner they are allowed to rule themselves the better. Westminster has only ever paid lip service to Ulster
No, I am not. Scottish independence would destroy the UK, in a way that losing the Six Counties would not threaten the integrity of GB. Therefore, the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats (LDs) cannot afford to co-operate with the SNP in any way. Given the animosity between Labour and the LDs, the Labour Party need to win more seats than the Tories and LDs combined in order to have any opportunity of forming the next UK government.
Would Scottish independence really be worse than Brexit? Why would an independent Scotland with free movement of people and trade to and from the UK be such a big problem? Seems less disruptive than Brexit, that's for sure.
I'm neither for nor against Scottish independence, but as an English person I don't really see what the big deal is as long as we retain full freedom of movement.
Would Scottish independence really be worse than Brexit? Why would an independent Scotland with free movement of people and trade to and from the UK be such a big problem? Seems less disruptive than Brexit, that's for sure.
I'm neither for nor against Scottish independence, but as an English person I don't really see what the big deal is as long as we retain full freedom of movement.
As the stated aim of the SNP is that an independent Scotland would re-join the EU, we'll likely end up with many of the issues faced in Northern Ireland at a much larger scale.
Even if Scotland doesn't re-join the EU, there's still the matter of disentangling from the institutions that have grown up in a 400-year union rather than a 40-year one.
As the majority of Scotland's 'exports' are to the rest of the UK then facilitating that with as an open a border as possible would seem the obvious thing to do, other political priorities may interfere.
Not a chance an independent Scotland would join the EU - the Spanish would guarantee that.
Add to that the government in Westminster would probably be feeling spiteful towards the Scottish (assuming they don’t take the Catalan solution towards a potential Indy Ref 2) and I get the feeling Scottish independence would unravel very quickly.
The Spanish opposition was to a seceding state dividing its parent's EU membership and taking a portion with it; meaning that they would block an independent Scotland bypassing the accession process by claiming to remain in the EU on the strength of the UK's membership.
On the other hand, Scotland legitimately seceding from the UK and applying to join the EU as a new member sets no precedent for Catalonia and as such is not opposed by Madrid.
But as you say, it is indeed a topic for its own thread.
Yep and on that note let’s leave the (previously much discussed on here) Scottish independence stuff there.
Actually I just had to remind myself what this thread was actually about!
Something that might unravel in the near future that could cause trouble for Labour, is the future of MP Rosie Duffield, who appears to have been the subject of a smear campaign by both former party members and some hard left party members who disagree with her points of view, particularly on trans rights. Recently this has moved to targeting her relocating with her partner to somewhere in the Midlands being leaked by said attackers, and she's publicly said she's considering her position in the party. The Tories have unsurprisingly being trying to get her (who wouldn't try and grab an MP debating their future), and while she has said they've been supportive of her, she's unsure about most of their policies, including Brexit (being the Canterbury MP being critical of Government Brexit policy is a no brainer); the Lib Dems have also asked.
Two things surprise me in this situation: firstly that based on what she's described she hasn't already left, I wonder if she's resisting the move in part because doing so would be to concede victory to those trying to smear her, and/or because Tory ideology is much more extreme now (I reckon she'd have defected a long time ago if this was happening under a Major/Cameron Government). Secondly that the Labour leadership have done very little to combat this, not just for moral reasons, but to lose an MP in this way would be extremely damaging to the party's reputation, and by default its electoral chances. Labour did well to get Christian Wakeford to defect to them, but two can play that game, and if they see another MP go the other way this will not look good in any way, even if sections of the party are pleased with such a move.
Something that might unravel in the near future that could cause trouble for Labour, is the future of MP Rosie Duffield, who appears to have been the subject of a smear campaign by both former party members and some hard left party members who disagree with her points of view, particularly on trans rights. Recently this has moved to targeting her relocating with her partner to somewhere in the Midlands being leaked by said attackers, and she's publicly said she's considering her position in the party. The Tories have unsurprisingly being trying to get her (who wouldn't try and grab an MP debating their future), and while she has said they've been supportive of her, she's unsure about most of their policies, including Brexit (being the Canterbury MP being critical of Government Brexit policy is a no brainer); the Lib Dems have also asked.
Two things surprise me in this situation: firstly that based on what she's described she hasn't already left, I wonder if she's resisting the move in part because doing so would be to concede victory to those trying to smear her, and/or because Tory ideology is much more extreme now (I reckon she'd have defected a long time ago if this was happening under a Major/Cameron Government). Secondly that the Labour leadership have done very little to combat this, not just for moral reasons, but to lose an MP in this way would be extremely damaging to the party's reputation, and by default its electoral chances. Labour did well to get Christian Wakeford to defect to them, but two can play that game, and if they see another MP go the other way this will not look good in any way, even if sections of the party are pleased with such a move.
I don't really agree with this TBH, I think she is a ridiculous attention seeker rather like Joanna Cherry in the SNP. I take her claims with a massive grain of salt because she has been largely only talking to the Telegraph.
I honestly don't think it would hurt the Labour party at all to see Rosie Duffield and Neil Coyle deselected at the next election if Jeremy Corbyn is also not allowed to stand TBH. It would be an easy way for Starmer to restore some credibility with party members without losing any from the electorate.
Something that might unravel in the near future that could cause trouble for Labour, is the future of MP Rosie Duffield, who appears to have been the subject of a smear campaign by both former party members and some hard left party members who disagree with her points of view, particularly on trans rights.
The Rosie Barnes stuff is something that I have to admit to being very interested in at a personal level, since it bears some slight similarities with my own path - I've already defected from being a Labour member to the Tories (indirectly, after spending a long time considering the LibDems) and Labour's attitude towards identity politics was a very significant factor in my making that decision.
Recently this has moved to targeting her relocating with her partner to somewhere in the Midlands being leaked by said attackers, and she's publicly said she's considering her position in the party. The Tories have unsurprisingly being trying to get her (who wouldn't try and grab an MP debating their future), and while she has said they've been supportive of her, she's unsure about most of their policies, including Brexit (being the Canterbury MP being critical of Government Brexit policy is a no brainer); the Lib Dems have also asked.
I'd be pretty surprised if she defected to the LibDems - from what I can tell, they seem on the whole to be even more pro-identity politics and intolerant of those who disagree with the most extreme trans-rights positions than much of Labour is. I think she would really struggle to fit in with the LibDems given how prominent her views on womens' spaces etc. are. Having said that, I would guess her views are closer to the LibDems on many other issues.
One other factor might be that, if she wishes to remain an MP after the next election, she's probably more likely to achieve that by defecting to the Tories than the LibDems. (Impossible to tell how important that might be to her).
Duffield's brought this on herself. To just focus in on the identity politics is to also ignore her indiscretions as an MP, especially towards some of her staffers that brought GMB union to get involved. There's nothing wrong in her position - notably similar to that of Robert Winston, who was vilified by the hard left as being transphobic when pointing out that sex cannot be changed due to biological science. However, her attitude and conduct have been far from standards that you'd want to see from an MP (this government aside).
I'd more concerned about Diane Abbott's claptrap about Russia/Ukraine and making stuff up about Starmer. Which does little for the Labour party. It's about time she went, along with Duffield.
The Rosie Barnes stuff is something that I have to admit to being very interested in at a personal level, since it bears some slight similarities with my own path - I've already defected from being a Labour member to the Tories (indirectly, after spending a long time considering the LibDems) and Labour's attitude towards identity politics was a very significant factor in my making that decision.
I'd be pretty surprised if she defected to the LibDems - from what I can tell, they seem on the whole to be even more pro-identity politics and intolerant of those who disagree with the most extreme trans-rights positions than much of Labour is. I think she would really struggle to fit in with the LibDems given how prominent her views on womens' spaces etc. are. Having said that, I would guess her views are closer to the LibDems on many other issues.
One other factor might be that, if she wishes to remain an MP after the next election, she's probably more likely to achieve that by defecting to the Tories than the LibDems. (Impossible to tell how important that might be to her).
Though would be by no means guaranteed to win the seat again. Canterbury is the sort of place - university town - which has been moving away from the Tories in recent elections, so if she stood as Canterbury's Tory MP I'd suspect that, plus people being annoyed at her for switching parties, would count against her.
(As a caveat I will state that I have not been following this story though and have no idea whether there is a realistic chance of Duffield becoming a Tory).
I'd be pretty surprised if she defected to the LibDems - from what I can tell, they seem on the whole to be even more pro-identity politics and intolerant of those who disagree with the most extreme trans-rights positions than much of Labour is. I think she would really struggle to fit in with the LibDems given how prominent her views on womens' spaces etc. are. Having said that, I would guess her views are closer to the LibDems on many other issues.
One other factor might be that, if she wishes to remain an MP after the next election, she's probably more likely to achieve that by defecting to the Tories than the LibDems. (Impossible to tell how important that might be to her).
I think if the Tories were still aligned to their traditional base and led by a leader with similar mindset to someone like Major or Cameron, and Brexit was not an issue, Duffield would have no trouble defecting to the Tories. In fact, given she entered Parliament in 2017, she may have even tried to stand as a Tory MP and never been in Labour before. However their current stance further to the right and the purge of many moderates in 2019 maybe why she's been hesitant to move so far (she is anti-Brexit and the most vocal anti-Brexit MPs were purged, and/or went to Change UK).
Sometimes when I look at all the transphobia/identity politics stuff around gender going on, I have to wonder whether certain forms of technology/medical advancements really are a good idea. The phrase "just because one can, doesn't mean one should" comes to mind.
I'd more concerned about Diane Abbott's claptrap about Russia/Ukraine and making stuff up about Starmer. Which does little for the Labour party. It's about time she went, along with Duffield.
I reckon there are a selection of Labour MPs who if they stand down at the next election, this alone would boost the overall party's support. Abbott is one of them, along with Corbyn. Both of them are of an age one might expect them to move on, and in Corbyn's case if he doesn't get the whip back he may find it easier to stand down, or he could lose on a vote split. There are around 30 other MPs who have similar thinking to them, but I'd say these 2 have the highest profile, so their actions bear the most influence.
A number of prominent Labour MPs have announced they'll stand down at the next election, which as this is happening under Starmer may help increase the number of fresh talent and similar thinking folk to the centre-left of the party.
I think the point is "Starmer used to be a hard-left communist, or something, in 1978, or something, so clearly he's unfit to lead the country now, or something" in the eye of the right-wing media.
By contrast Tories were good boys when they were young, just spouting Thatcherite c**p and brown-nosing Lady T at university debating chambers (this is actual personal experience of mine with a current semi-prominent Tory) so they are of course perfectly alright then.
They could even have a dig at Starmer and the 2nd to last Labour government by saying something like Starmer was a communist during the winter of discontent.
Though would be by no means guaranteed to win the seat again. Canterbury is the sort of place - university town - which has been moving away from the Tories in recent elections, so if she stood as Canterbury's Tory MP I'd suspect that, plus people being annoyed at her for switching parties, would count against her.
(As a caveat I will state that I have not been following this story though and have no idea whether there is a realistic chance of Duffield becoming a Tory).
History also shows that even MPs who trigger a by-election after defecting and winning the by-election don't survive long after. In 2014 Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from Tory to UKIP, with both triggering and winning by-elections. Within a year Reckless lost his seat at the 2015 GE to the Tories, and while Carswell held on, he left UKIP and became independent in 2017, then stood down in the snap GE. I expect he almost certainly wouldn't have been re-elected in 2017 had he stood again.
I wonder if these outcomes influenced the Change UK clique in 2019 not having by-elections, or for defectors to the Lib Dems, including some of the Change UK lot when that project collapsed? The end result of them all leaving Parliament in Dec 2019 was probably no worse than what would have happened had they all triggered by-elections beforehand.
Something that might unravel in the near future that could cause trouble for Labour, is the future of MP Rosie Duffield, who appears to have been the subject of a smear campaign by both former party members and some hard left party members who disagree with her points of view, particularly on trans rights. Recently this has moved to targeting her relocating with her partner to somewhere in the Midlands being leaked by said attackers, and she's publicly said she's considering her position in the party. The Tories have unsurprisingly being trying to get her (who wouldn't try and grab an MP debating their future), and while she has said they've been supportive of her, she's unsure about most of their policies, including Brexit (being the Canterbury MP being critical of Government Brexit policy is a no brainer); the Lib Dems have also asked.
Two things surprise me in this situation: firstly that based on what she's described she hasn't already left, I wonder if she's resisting the move in part because doing so would be to concede victory to those trying to smear her, and/or because Tory ideology is much more extreme now (I reckon she'd have defected a long time ago if this was happening under a Major/Cameron Government). Secondly that the Labour leadership have done very little to combat this, not just for moral reasons, but to lose an MP in this way would be extremely damaging to the party's reputation, and by default its electoral chances. Labour did well to get Christian Wakeford to defect to them, but two can play that game, and if they see another MP go the other way this will not look good in any way, even if sections of the party are pleased with such a move.
As it is, Canterbury has looked like one of the least likely Labour seats in the country. I think it is the only Labour seat that was Conservative in 1997 & 2001. If Rosie does defect to the Conservatives, Labour might wish they had never won Canterbury in the first place.
Of course Rosie might have won a nomination and been elected elsewhere had Canterbury not chosen her but that's another story.
Sometimes when I look at all the transphobia/identity politics stuff around gender going on, I have to wonder whether certain forms of technology/medical advancements really are a good idea. The phrase "just because one can, doesn't mean one should" comes to mind.
They could even have a dig at Starmer and the 2nd to last Labour government by saying something like Starmer was a communist during the winter of discontent.
(Just for point of clarification, 1978 was just a year plucked at random from Starmer's youth, to make fun of the right-wing press's tendency to drag up things from the past).
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History also shows that even MPs who trigger a by-election after defecting and winning the by-election don't survive long after. In 2014 Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from Tory to UKIP, with both triggering and winning by-elections. Within a year Reckless lost his seat at the 2015 GE to the Tories, and while Carswell held on, he left UKIP and became independent in 2017, then stood down in the snap GE. I expect he almost certainly wouldn't have been re-elected in 2017 had he stood again.
I wonder if these outcomes influenced the Change UK clique in 2019 not having by-elections, or for defectors to the Lib Dems, including some of the Change UK lot when that project collapsed? The end result of them all leaving Parliament in Dec 2019 was probably no worse than what would have happened had they all triggered by-elections beforehand.
The Change UK case was an interesting one, because they were sort-of halfway between Tory and Labour so could have got votes from both.
I did expect some of them to hold on due to the 'incumbent' effect, which I always assumed was a thing, but the 2019 election proved otherwise. But perhaps in by-elections the 'incumbent' effect would have caused them to hold their seats; as you say it seems to be stronger in by-elections.
The contest in Anna Soubry's seat would have been an interesting case in a byelection, you have Soubry as a pro-EU centrist, a Labour candidate who may well also have been pro-EU and a Tory candidate who would have stood on a pro-Brexit platform. So if you are pro-EU and anti-Tory, who do you vote for, Soubry or the Labour candidate? I'd imagine what would happen (sadly IMO) is that the Brexiters would all rally round the Tory, while the anti-Brexit vote would be split between Soubry and Labour.
But really, as I've said many times already, there was too much Judean People's Front in-fighting going on at this time between the non-Tory parties. If Labour, the Lib Dems and Change had sat down and united against the common opponent, we might have got somewhere.
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As it is, Canterbury has looked like one of the least likely Labour seats in the country. I think it is the only Labour seat that was Conservative in 1997 & 2001. If Rosie does defect to the Conservatives, Labour might wish they had never won Canterbury in the first place.
Of course Rosie might have won a nomination and been elected elsewhere had Canterbury not chosen her but that's another story.
Though as I said, it's one of a number of seats which are perhaps swinging away from the Tories due to demographics; the polar opposite of places like Sedgefield, Grimsby and Hartlepool, for instance.
To be honest, given her views on a range of issues I doubt she would defect to the Tories. Would someone with strong pro-EU views defect to a party currently adopting right-wing policies on EU immigration, for instance? If the Tories ditch Johnson and the pro-Brexit clique and revert to a Majorite party in the coming years, maybe yes, but not now I suspect.
As it is, Canterbury has looked like one of the least likely Labour seats in the country. I think it is the only Labour seat that was Conservative in 1997 & 2001. If Rosie does defect to the Conservatives, Labour might wish they had never won Canterbury in the first place.
Of course Rosie might have won a nomination and been elected elsewhere had Canterbury not chosen her but that's another story.
Duffield was a 'local' candidate, living and working in the constituency (and had contested a council seat) so that is why it was a good seat for her.
I think it has gone Labour for two reasons - the previous MP was useless and took the constituency for granted; they got the student vote out - the University of Kent, in particular, and Canterbury Christ Church University are in the constituency. I live in a neighbouring constituency and the activists I have spoken to, speak well of her. I think there is a hardcore of left wingers who are against her, and, if they are not careful, will lose the seat; whether the Conservatives would adopt her to fight the next election is a moot point.
Canterbury itself is not the blue rinse area that it is often held out to be. Of its councillors 7 are Labour, 3 LibDem, 1 Independent*. A ward which combines a part of the city as well as the adjoining area has 2 LibDem and 1 Conservative.
It is the surrounding villages and parts of the coastal area where the Conservative core is.
* - the independent used to be a Conservative who supported the previous, deposed leader; voted against the new leader and his plans to move more power to the cabinet, bypassing the council chamber. Familiar? The council leader used to represent the split ward described above but was booted out, finishing 5th in a 3 seat ward. He was subsequently found a safe seat.
EDIT: I should have added that he resigned from the Conservatives because he was threatened with disciplinary maybe leading to the suspension for his vote against the shift of power, claiming he voted voted with his heart. No place for that in Canterbury Conservatives.
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