Storm Corrie, Sunday 30th January 2022

[Newtraveller58]

I don't know whether the decision was made primarily by scotrail or NR but all trains departing after 18.00 were cancelled. The WCML services mentioned would have started before then.

Unless there are major events, passenger numbers are quite low on most routes on Saturday evenings, and making a simple, easily understood shutdown was easiest for everyone including the public.

I believe that the decision was correct. On Sunday morning, trains were in the right place and, after the usual removal of trampolines etc from the wires, services could restart in the areas which had had the yellow warning. In the North (amber) area trees were down in their hundreds.

From a forecasting perspective, these storms can now be predicted days before they form (unlike in 1987). But there remains uncertainty about their strength and their exact path (the two are linked ). The predicted path of Corrie changed significantly in the run-up to its arrival.

As a comparison, if you fill a bowl with water and put a single beater in, you will eventually get a smooth vortex from the centre to the outside, but initially the circulation will be chaotic as the rotation gradually spreads outwards. The former us a mature depression, the latter a developing storm which will contain furious gusts with speeds well in excess of the average.

Except that the shutdown was on Sunday evening, not Saturday evening. Sunday is a much busier day with people travelling back after Weekends away.

While I have a lot of sympathy with the people that have to make these decisions I think a blanket shutdown is becoming the easy option which I certainly wouldn’t have been encouraged to take 20 or 30 years ago. In my local area near Glasgow the forecast was for winds of up to 45kph. If that is creating significant risk to the railway, there will be lots of days when we shouldn’t be running trains.

We should be looking at improving overall public safety. So if the trains aren’t running will people sit in the house and wait for the weather to stop and the trains to restart or will they will use the roads either in private cars or buses which probably increases public risk. Unfortunately society (and the safety regulators) have driven the train operators to take a very narrow view of risk only to passengers and staff on the railway, rather than overall societal risk.

 

[Falcon1200]

Actually that's my mistake! My apologies - from an earlier post I was under the impression you were train crew, though it now appears I got that wrong and you're a controller - I shall redact!

No problem, thanks.

I think that the disruption experienced as a direct result of these recent winds just shows what a really poor infrastructure we have in place on the railway.

I agree that Network Rail's vegetation management should certainly be reviewed, although there are limits on what can be done, for financial, environmental and other reasons, but it should be noted that a fair amount of the debris blown onto the line, and not just trees, comes from outside the railway and is therefore beyond its control.

 

[InOban]

Except that the shutdown was on Sunday evening, not Saturday evening. Sunday is a much busier day with people travelling back after Weekends away.

While I have a lot of sympathy with the people that have to make these decisions I think a blanket shutdown is becoming the easy option which I certainly wouldn’t have been encouraged to take 20 or 30 years ago. In my local area near Glasgow the forecast was for winds of up to 45kph. If that is creating significant risk to the railway, there will be lots of days when we shouldn’t be running trains.

We should be looking at improving overall public safety. So if the trains aren’t running will people sit in the house and wait for the weather to stop and the trains to restart or will they will use the roads either in private cars or buses which probably increases public risk. Unfortunately society (and the safety regulators) have driven the train operators to take a very narrow view of risk only to passengers and staff on the railway, rather than overall societal risk.

Sorry about the wrong day. Sunday is indeed busy for long distance travel which would have started long before 1800. And as I said, these developing storms produce gusts way higher than the average speed.

 

[APT618S]

We should be looking at improving overall public safety. So if the trains aren’t running will people sit in the house and wait for the weather to stop and the trains to restart or will they will use the roads either in private cars or buses which probably increases public risk. Unfortunately society (and the safety regulators) have driven the train operators to take a very narrow view of risk only to passengers and staff on the railway, rather than overall societal risk.

I agree. When the Railways do their risk assessments they should take ownership of the increased risks caused by the highly likely modal shift from the railway system to the road system.
If closing down the railways for a period of time, on a statistical basis, reduces injuries and death on railway but the result is greater injury and death on the roads then in my opinion it is the wrong decision.

 

[najaB]

I agree. When the Railways do their risk assessments they should take ownership of the increased risks caused by the highly likely modal shift from the railway system to the road system.
If closing down the railways for a period of time, on a statistical basis, reduces injuries and death on railway but the result is greater injury and death on the roads then in my opinion it is the wrong decision.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that when trains are cancelled due to forecast bad weather, most people will postpone their travel. The only people who are likely to then jump into the car are the minority for who the journey isn't optional/can't be delayed.

 

[seagull]

I agree. When the Railways do their risk assessments they should take ownership of the increased risks caused by the highly likely modal shift from the railway system to the road system.
If closing down the railways for a period of time, on a statistical basis, reduces injuries and death on railway but the result is greater injury and death on the roads then in my opinion it is the wrong decision.

Dodgy road to go down (pardon the pun) there. Taken to its logical conclusion it would prevent the use of rail replacement bus services and even the use of taxis to convey passengers potentially, as the risk of them dying in a road accident is obviously far greater than on the train.