HS2 Crewe-Manchester Bill Published

[Starmill]

But… there will always be winners and losers. one of the reasons the railway is in the state it is is that the politicians want there to be ‘no bad news’.

For what it’s worth, given traffic levels Leicester to each of Derby and Nottingham, hourly is probably enough. There is also the opportunity to change at EMP To give more connected frequency (similar to how you get from Bedford to Leicester via Kettering.)

I think it's quite proper and correct to point out that services for some journeys between large, nearby cities in the 2040s may well be significantly inferior to in the 2010s, and question it. When government presents their plans as better and tries to hide the risks and disbenifits deep in a later publication, all the more so people should see that and come to their own conclusions.

Obviously, whether that tips the equation on the overall package, we cannot easily say from this vantage, especially because there's all sorts of other implications for capacity.

However, if I were forced to come to a view, my view would be that the full Y had a perfectly adequate business case, albeit not perhaps a 'bombastic' one, and that in time this network will prove to contain such compromises that it won't produce a better one.

Also, the demand profile for Bedford to Leicester is not similar to Nottingham to Leicester, and I think you know it

 

[Bald Rick]

But then the UCR recommended the Golbourne link should be extended further potentially to somewhere just south of Preston with further improvements north to reduce the journey time between London and Glasgow to 3 hours

extending the link to just south of Preston won’t deliver Glasgow in 3 hours. It would deliver 3h30, at a guess.

 

[Starmill]

Well as Starmill says - something is wrong with the website. The Dft homepage says updated January 24 2022 - but I am still searching.

Which document did that chart of potential services come from, please? Seems to show a serious curtailment of services from Grantham and Newark ....

I've found a link that appears to actually work: https://assets.publishing.service.g...gic-alternatives-to-high-speed-2-phase-2b.pdf

Edit: I think that this is the same link that GRALISTAIR has edited in above. Looks like some errors have crept in on the gov.uk site today.

 

[Bald Rick]

Also, the demand profile for Bedford to Leicester is not similar to Nottingham to Leicester, and I think you know it

oh I quite agree, but then there are only two direct trains a day from Bedford to Leicester, and the last one of those is at 0711

also, in the southbound direction, the 2tph frequency from both Nottingham and Derby to Leicester isn’t half hourly but something like 22/38.

 

[Starmill]

also, in the southbound direction, the 2tph frequency from both Nottingham and Derby

It is indeed slightly poorer yes. But it's probably exceedingly tricky to serve Loughborough (another important traffic driver that really shouldn't be 'going without') properly without that creeping in. Perhaps we should be looking at building a new line for London to Sheffield traffic so this is no longer such an issue?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

extending the link to just south of Preston won’t deliver Glasgow in 3 hours. It would deliver 3h30, at a guess.

Its not the only intervention its part of it but not all of it further bypasses are required further north but an extension to Preston would reduce it further than the current plans.

 

[Starmill]

Which document did that chart of potential services come from, please? Seems to show a serious curtailment of services from Grantham and Newark ....

For what it's worth, I think there's probably an error in it and there should be a spot on the Hull service at Doncaster. So Newark North Gate could at least retain a two-hourly service to Doncaster. It's still pretty poor though along with hourly to London.

Grantham does a little bit better with 2tph to London and retention of an hourly through service to York.

 

[RSimons]

Marsden seems a peculiar destination for a high speed rail link. Have I missed something? How is the line supposed to get there and what happens next?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Marsden seems a peculiar destination for a high speed rail link. Have I missed something? How is the line supposed to get there and what happens next?

Well the line ends there doesnt mean trains will stop there.

 

[Nottingham59]

Marsden seems a peculiar destination for a high speed rail link. Have I missed something? How is the line supposed to get there and what happens next?

As I understand it, the new line will provide effectively four tracks from Manchester Piccadilly to the Eastern end of the Standedge Tunnel (i.e. Marsden), merging into a combination of three and four tracks through Huddersfield nearly to Leeds; and then some sort of pixie dust to reconfigure the Western Approaches to Leeds station, still to be worked out.

 

[Bald Rick]

How is the line supposed to get there and what happens next?

in tunnel from Manchester, then using the existing (and upgraded) lines thence via Huddersfield to Leeds.

 

[Nottingham59]

So Newark North Gate could at least retain a two-hourly service to Doncaster. It's still pretty poor though along with hourly to London.

I wonder how long before the good people of Newark realise that they are going to lose their twice hourly connections to York and beyond?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I've found a link that appears to actually work: https://assets.publishing.service.g...gic-alternatives-to-high-speed-2-phase-2b.pdf

Edit: I think that this is the same link that GRALISTAIR has edited in above. Looks like some errors have crept in on the gov.uk site today.

I think this is the Technical Annex that goes with the IRP.
It seems to be technical in a strategic and financial sense, rather than railway-technical.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1049558/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands-technical-annex.pdf

 

[snowball]

in tunnel from Manchester,

Are you revealing some inside knowledge there? There have also been some suggestions of routes at least partially on the surface.

 

[Bald Rick]

Are you revealing some inside knowledge there? There have also been some suggestions of routes at least partially on the surface.

underground knowledge

A quick look at a map shows that it has to be in tunnel, simply to avoid suburban Manchester and then very difficult topography the rest of the way. It might pop up for air in a couple of places I suppose. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I wonder how many TBMs it will need. Lots, I imagine.

 

[Nottingham59]

My guess is 4 tracking to Guide Bridge, then tunnel to Marsden, coming up for air around Greensill where there is an old alignment across the valley, which is not all built on. EDIT: I meant Greenfield of course

They have to tunnel to get across Standedge

 

[Bald Rick]

My guess is 4 tracking to Guide Bridge, then tunnel to Marsden, coming up for air around Greensill where there is an old alignment across the valley, which is not all built on.

They have to tunnel to get across Standedge

V unlikely that a line alongside the existing to (and via) Guide Bridge can meet the journey times. It needs to be much straighter (and shorter). Also nowhere obvious for a portal at Guide Bridge.

 

[Revaulx]

My guess is 4 tracking to Guide Bridge, then tunnel to Marsden, coming up for air around Greensill where there is an old alignment across The Valley , which is not all built on.

They have to tunnel to get across Standedge

Greenfield?

That’ll be tricky. Best to have it in tunnel all the way to Marsden. The Saddleworth valleys are pretty built up these days.

 

[Nottingham59]

V unlikely that a line alongside the existing to (and via) Guide Bridge can meet the journey times. It needs to be much straighter (and shorter). Also nowhere obvious for a portal at Guide Bridge.

OK. If it's tunnel effectively all the way then, then that makes it a Pennine Base Tunnel.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

How much more expensive would an underground station in Manchester be? Is there a rough estimate?

 

[Bald Rick]

OK. If it's tunnel effectively all the way then, then that makes it a Pennine Base Tunnel.

not really, seeing as it will emerge at Marsden at around 500feet above sea level!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2022 ==

How much mor expensive would a under ground station in Manchester be? Is there a rough estimate?

I think there has but I’ve never seen it. Safe to say it would be something like an extra £5bn, and a certain decade longer on the delivery date. And all because a few people can’t get their heads round trains reversing.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

not really, seeing as it will emerge at Marsden at around 500feet above sea level!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2022 ==



I think there has but I’ve never seen it. Safe to say it would be something like an extra £5bn, and a certain decade longer on the delivery date. And all because a few people can’t get their heads round trains reversing.

£5 billion which would be better spent elsewhere (Leeds to Sheffield section of HS2 for example).

 

[g22]

But… there will always be winners and losers. one of the reasons the railway is in the state it is is that the politicians want there to be ‘no bad news’.

For what it’s worth, given traffic levels Leicester to each of Derby and Nottingham, hourly is probably enough. There is also the opportunity to change at EMP To give more connected frequency (similar to how you get from Bedford to Leicester via Kettering.)

Seriously. To compare Leicester/Nottingham with Bedford/Leicester. The last time any figures were published there were 570,000 journeys between Leicester and Nottingham (total both ways) per annum. Leicester and Bedford 26,000 per annum. Obviously Covid will have changed things for now, but that applies anywhere.
People doing a large volume local journey between the two largest cities in the East Midlands really shouldn't have a service partly based around changing trains. Surely there needs to be a stand alone Leicester /Nottingham in the opposite half hour to supplement, and I don't mean the stopping service on the slow lines.

 

[RSimons]

Thanks for the info about Marsden. I knew there was discussion about a new line, largely in tunnel, from Manchester to Yorkshire but I thought it was mainly wishful thinking and not even close to being included in official plans.

 

[deltic]

I wonder how long before the good people of Newark realise that they are going to lose their twice hourly connections to York and beyond?

As its a theoretical timetable for around 20 years hence I dont think anyone will care.

 

[edwin_m]

For Leicester-Nottingham I wonder if they plan to upgrade the slow service to semi-fast and create a new stopper that would go to Toton then on to Mansfield. By using the High Level lines this wouldn’t add to congestion at Trent. Apologies if the document already comments on this, only on a phone and can’t easily read it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

V unlikely that a line alongside the existing to (and via) Guide Bridge can meet the journey times. It needs to be much straighter (and shorter). Also nowhere obvious for a portal at Guide Bridge.

Piccadilly to Marsden is 30 km in a straight line, from Guide Bridge it's 20 km.
If we can contemplate a 30 km tunnel* I wouldn't have thought it mattered cost- or time-wise whether the Piccadilly end was on the surface or underground.

* similar length to the Guadarrama tunnel north of Madrid

 

[snowball]

Thanks for the info about Marsden. I knew there was discussion about a new line, largely in tunnel, from Manchester to Yorkshire but I thought it was mainly wishful thinking and not even close to being included in official plans.

It was in the Integrated Rail Plan for the Midlands and North published in November that there will be a new line from Manchester (immediately east of Piccadilly High Speed) to Yorkshire (though it didn't explicitly say in tunnel). There were strong hints that it will only just reach into Yorkshire. This leaves it unclear how much 3- or 4-tracking there will be between the end of this line and Huddersfield. There is another proposal, for which a decision is awaited on the recently completed public inquiry, for a new pair of fast lines from Hudds to just beyond Ravensthorpe. So the capacity concerns remaining are Marsden to Hudds, Ravensthorpe to Leeds, Leeds station, and east of Leeds.

 

[Roast Veg]

Government publications must be like buses - no clues about the IRP for months on end, then a bunch of documents with conflicting information (maps mostly) all at once.

 

[Bald Rick]

I wouldn't have thought it mattered cost- or time-wise whether the Piccadilly end was on the surface or underground.

it very much does matter.