Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[The Lad]

Could you just have a switch which selects grid supply or Local supply then the two can't meet.
What about earthing?

 

[paul1609]

In the context of EV charging, the other option is to install a solar array, and rather than connect it to the grid, charge a battery bank during the day. Then you plug your EV in in the evening to charge overnight. Now you're not going anywhere near your grid connection, it's completely separate. I did some research and it works out much cheaper and more cost effective that connecting a solar array to the grid and complicated tariffs. Parked for now as I'm going to wait a bit until I get an EV.

You'd need a very big house or be doing very low mileage.
As I've already pointed out a 4 Kwp array will produce a max average of 3kwh/day in January-once you take charging efficency in to account on my ex employers employers Nissan Leaf pool cars that would get you around 9 miles with the heating off.

 

[reddragon]

90% of new cars may be bought on PCP, but used car sales outnumber new 4:1. Purchase price will be the key factor in buying used.
EVs may well be the lowest running costs, but it depends on your mileage whether that’s enough of a saving to make the overall cost lower.

Every used car was new once!

Used car prices are more related to supply & demand than their new price. Used easy to own / maintain / repair / insure cars often demand higher prices than high end cars than cost a bomb to own.

EVs demand high 2nd hand prices as buyers know they'll be fine in most cases

 

[trebor79]

Every used car was new once!

Used car prices are more related to supply & demand than their new price. Used easy to own / maintain / repair / insure cars often demand higher prices than high end cars than cost a bomb to own.

EVs demand high 2nd hand prices as buyers know they'll be fine in most cases

They are also relatively scarce at the moment.
I do wonder what will happen in the next few years. the manufacturers have increased the list prices quite significantly in many cases over the past few months, but PCP deals haven't really got any more expensive (or at least, not to the same extent). Someone is taking a risk that the residual values will stay high.
It'll be also be interesting to see what happens to new EV pricing once the current chip supply crunch is over, there's more availability and car companies are back to worrying about how to keep their factories running flat out (and therefore with the lowest unit costs) than pricing to regulate demand (and make up a bit for the factory not running at capacity). There will also be more competition from established and new entrants. If they start slashing the cost of new cars, that's going to impact the residuals on cars coming to the end of their PCP deal. If they don't slash the cost of new cars, people with les money to spend (which is most people) will simply move to buying from new market entrants such as MG, Great Wall ORA etc.

 

[reddragon]

If there's no used market, EVs will go nowhere. I will not buy a car on PCP, I always buy used. A PCP is simply paying off depreciation, I get no asset and no control.

I would conventionally lease over a PCP. The former offers more options and flexibility. Neither offers me ownership unless I buy it separately at the end of the contract - PCP is a misnomer, as unless you pay the "guaranteed future value" no purchase ever occurs. It is just a form of lease contract, in practice.

I only ever bought used until my 1st EV.

I did the maths for my 2nd hand diesel estate cars, Capital, fuel, maintenance, tax, servicing etc and came up with my monthly cost for my old cars

I then looked at the PCP plus lower servicing costs, power etc, but no maintenance, MOT, tax to determine the monthly cost.

In every case my new EV was cheaper than a used diesel or petrol car to own, by a lot.

My wife has an old petrol car. If I add up the tax, extra servicing & maintenance plus fuel for the miles I do it adds up to my monthly PCP cost each month and that is without capital costs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

EVs demand high 2nd hand prices as buyers know they'll be fine in most cases

Most EV platforms are new, so I think quite the opposite - I don't doubt some platforms will be found to have flaws, and I don't doubt some will be quite serious including fires.

It's purely scarcity in my view. There isn't much of a used market yet. It'll take another 3-5 years for it to establish, unless you want a Nissan Leaf.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2022 ==

I only ever bought used until my 1st EV.

I did the maths for my 2nd hand diesel estate cars, Capital, fuel, maintenance, tax, servicing etc and came up with my monthly cost for my old cars

I then looked at the PCP plus lower servicing costs, power etc, but no maintenance, MOT, tax to determine the monthly cost.

In every case my new EV was cheaper than a used diesel or petrol car to own, by a lot.

My wife has an old petrol car. If I add up the tax, extra servicing & maintenance plus fuel for the miles I do it adds up to my monthly PCP cost each month and that is without capital costs.

Is that new vs. "bangernomics"? I've near-always bought 2-3 years old and kept cars for 3-5 years, and thus far have never had any serious MoT fails nor significant maintenance costs. All I've had is tyres, brakes, one exhaust ever and one seized brake caliper. That's in about 20 years of driving.

Or are you comparing different classes of car, e.g. a small EV vs. a large diesel estate?

The car I've had most trouble with was bought new.

 

[trebor79]

Most EV platforms are new, so I think quite the opposite - I don't doubt some platforms will be found to have flaws, and I don't doubt some will be quite serious including fires.

Indeed. Hyundai have already had to recall many Kona EV's because of the batteries potentially igniting or failing completely. The 'temporary' fix has been to software limit them to a maximum charge state of 90%, but it seems nobody has yet had the promised battery replacement, or date for it to be done.
The VW stable seem to be particularly inefficient in everyday use.

It's purely scarcity in my view. There isn't much of a used market yet. It'll take another 3-5 years for it to establish, unless you want a Nissan Leaf.

That and people who want a car NOW being prepared to pay the new list price (or even higher in some cases) for a used example.

 

[reddragon]

Most EV platforms are new, so I think quite the opposite - I don't doubt some platforms will be found to have flaws, and I don't doubt some will be quite serious including fires.

It's purely scarcity in my view. There isn't much of a used market yet. It'll take another 3-5 years for it to establish, unless you want a Nissan Leaf.

EV issues have generally been limited to software issues that are easy to fix or rogue battery cells that are easy to replace. With so few moving parts, there really is little to go wrong.

ICE cars have fires all the time at a rate many times that of EVs, something to do with highly flammable gasses and very hot surfaces, lots of leaks, rattles and smoke!

VW does have software issues on the IDs!

 

[Bletchleyite]

EV issues have generally been limited to software issues that are easy to fix or rogue battery cells that are easy to replace. With so few moving parts, there really is little to go wrong.

ICEs are very, very reliable these days. Turbos sometimes seem to be a sticking point, and there are a few known-bad engines e.g. the PSA 1.6 turbodiesel from about 5-10 years ago, but if you buy a used ICE car about 3 years old and you service it correctly it is near-certain these days that you won't have any sort of serious engine fault.

ICE cars have fires all the time at a rate many times that of EVs, something to do with highly flammable gasses and very hot surfaces, lots of leaks, rattles and smoke!

I think it's too early to judge that.

VW does have software issues on the IDs!

As with trains I suspect software will be a significant sticking point.

Don't get me wrong, I'm pro EV, but I think this early on "you'll have less trouble with one than an ICE" is not a given yet.

 

[Bald Rick]

They are also relatively scarce at the moment.

1.7% of cars for sale on Autotrader are EVs, which is roughly the same proportion of EVs to cars on the road as a whole.

 

[trebor79]

Is that new vs. "bangernomics"? I've near-always bought 2-3 years old and kept cars for 3-5 years, and thus far have never had any serious MoT fails nor significant maintenance costs. All I've had is tyres, brakes, one exhaust ever and one seized brake caliper. That's in about 20 years of driving.

I am in exactly this position with my wifes 11 year old car with 110,000 on the clock. All sorts of clunks and bangs coming from the suspension. She's booked it in for a "full" service (£350) and MOT later this month. They've already said the brake discs will likely need replacing (was hundreds of pounds last time because they come as one assembly with bearings and ABS modules), and I'll be very surprised if nothing else serious needs doing. I'm bracing myself for a bill well in excess of £1,000. And we'll have the same again next year plus a cam belt change which 5 years ago was £700 so will be getting on for £1,000 by itself).
Spending all this money on a battered piece of junk really annoys me. I'm seriously considering slipping the mechanic £20 so to find every possible thing wrong on the MOT, then I can say "I'm not spending all the money on the heap of junk, let's get an MG ZS/other new car".

 

[Bletchleyite]

1.7% of cars for sale on Autotrader are EVs, which is roughly the same proportion of EVs to cars on the road as a whole.

1.7% sounds pretty scarce to me. Also, when you do look, it's biased towards two things - models that have been around for a while e.g. Nissan Leafs (which won't suit everyone), and dealers doing pre-registration to fiddle their stats (a lot of MGs, it appears).

 

[trebor79]

1.7% of cars for sale on Autotrader are EVs, which is roughly the same proportion of EVs to cars on the road as a whole.

Yes, but a lot of them are very old Leafs with poor range, or impractical rubbish like the Renault Twizy. You don't see that many Zoes, Teslas etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am in exactly this position with my wifes 11 year old car with 110,000 on the clock. All sorts of clunks and bangs coming from the suspension. She's booked it in for a "full" service (£350) and MOT later this month. They've already said the brake discs will likely need replacing (was hundreds of pounds last time because they come as one assembly with bearings and ABS modules), and I'll be very surprised if nothing else serious needs doing. I'm bracing myself for a bill well in excess of £1,000. And we'll have the same again next year plus a cam belt change which 5 years ago was £700 so will be getting on for £1,000 by itself).
Spending all this money on a battered piece of junk really annoys me. I'm seriously considering slipping the mechanic £20 so to find every possible thing wrong on the MOT, then I can say "I'm not spending all the money on the heap of junk, let's get an MG ZS/other new car".

It generally seems you can get to about 8 to 10 years old with an ICE car before you start having expensive trouble. But in most cases that trouble won't be with the engine, it'll be suspension and the likes, and often electrics - all things that EVs have as much as ICEs do.

Yes, cambelts are an issue but they are very often 10 years/100K miles or more now, so if you buy on the age model I do you rarely need one, and some engines are chain driven so don't need one at all. My usual reckoning with discs is that a set of discs lasts two sets of pads. But of course EVs have brakes too; typically regen is a separate thing from the friction braking system and essentially configurable to act like varying levels of engine braking, presumably so what happens when you press the brake pedal is entirely predictable. (See the Pendolino buffer bump at Liverpool Lime St for what happens if it isn't).

I forgot one - I have had to replace a battery (!) once. Dead easy DIY job though, so it was well under £100. Many EVs actually have a lead acid accessory battery, interestingly, so that same issue remains. This is so you can't end up in a position where stuff like the door locks and electronic handbrake don't work if you run out of traction battery charge.

As to your position, it probably is heading towards time to replace the car, though what with is a separate question.

 

[reddragon]

EVs seem to take 150-200k miles to wear out brake pads due to regen. Discs only suffer if not used occasionally & rust.

EVs do still have lead acid 12V batteries, except the latest Teslas. The lack of starting load does make them last a lot longer but also you don't get a warning that the battery is getting low / about to die because you never load it to start a lump of iron!

 

[paul1609]

Indeed. Hyundai have already had to recall many Kona EV's because of the batteries potentially igniting or failing completely. The 'temporary' fix has been to software limit them to a maximum charge state of 90%, but it seems nobody has yet had the promised battery replacement, or date for it to be done.
The VW stable seem to be particularly inefficient in everyday use.

That and people who want a car NOW being prepared to pay the new list price (or even higher in some cases) for a used example.

I believe that Hyundai have effectively withdrawn the Kona EV from the market for at least 2023 because of the fire issue. Apparently the 90% charge software mod isn't 100% effective in preventing the fires and all the cars need to have their battery packs replaced. Ditto for the Chevy Bolt in the USA.

 

[bspahh]

I am in exactly this position with my wifes 11 year old car with 110,000 on the clock. All sorts of clunks and bangs coming from the suspension. She's booked it in for a "full" service (£350) and MOT later this month. They've already said the brake discs will likely need replacing (was hundreds of pounds last time because they come as one assembly with bearings and ABS modules), and I'll be very surprised if nothing else serious needs doing. I'm bracing myself for a bill well in excess of £1,000. And we'll have the same again next year plus a cam belt change which 5 years ago was £700 so will be getting on for £1,000 by itself).
Spending all this money on a battered piece of junk really annoys me. I'm seriously considering slipping the mechanic £20 so to find every possible thing wrong on the MOT, then I can say "I'm not spending all the money on the heap of junk, let's get an MG ZS/other new car".

Its nice to avoid having to pay big bills for wear and tear damage. However, its better to fix things before they break, so that you can plan around it, and you need to balance the chance of spending £1000s on repair bills with the certainty of spending £1000s on depreciation on a newer replacement.

In any case would get the suspension checked, in case a spring has broken on a speed bump.

What is the model of car? I would prepare to avoid buying a car where a wear and tear item like a brake disc is integrated with expensive components.

 

[trebor79]

Its nice to avoid having to pay big bills for wear and tear damage. However, its better to fix things before they break, so that you can plan around it, and you need to balance the chance of spending £1000s on repair bills with the certainty of spending £1000s on depreciation on a newer replacement.

But I'd rather spend slightly more money on a PCP for a few years and have a nice new cheaper to run vehicle than a battered and worn out barely better than scrap car. I never buy cars on PCP, but will for first EV because I think prices are inflated at present and I'm certain there will be huge improvements in technology in a relatively short time frame. So if the manufacturers are prepared to take a huge risk on residual value, I'll let them!

In any case would get the suspension checked, in case a spring has broken on a speed bump.

No, I think the steering rack or CV joints are shot, going to an from full lock there's definite "Clunk" at certain points, and always the same points. Mrs hasn't noticed, or course!

What is the model of car? I would prepare to avoid buying a car where a wear and tear item like a brake disc is integrated with expensive components.

Renault Grand Scenic with a 1.6 petrol lump that was a dinosaur even when new. We didn't know about the ABS thing of course. Mrs thinks it drives well and "is really powerful". Costs about 20p a mile in fuel alone. Absolute heap.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Renault Grand Scenic with a 1.6 petrol lump that was a dinosaur even when new. We didn't know about the ABS thing of course. Mrs thinks it drives well and "is really powerful". Costs about 20p a mile in fuel alone. Absolute heap.

French cars and bad design? Well I never

 

[trebor79]

French cars and bad design? Well I never

TBF it's OK for what we use it for - hauling kids and clutter around. We only paid £4.5k for it 6 years ago (think it had about 45,000 on the clock) so it's been inexpensive in some respects. We've trashed it - dented, scraped, broken wing mirror housing (she was astonished it "just shattered, it was only overhanging the corner of the wall I reversed past by a millimetre") that's been gaffa taped up, the rear bumper was ripped off by a reversing cement lorry and had never quite fitted properly since, that also destroyed the parking sensor system. The straps to deploy and fold the third row of seats have both snapped off (on the same day!), the tonneau cover has never been in our possession, the seat belts are starting the fray, some of the internal trim has dropped off. The bonnet isn't fitted square and you can see massive differences in the shut lines, not sure what caused that, suspect it's been crashed at some point. There was some issue with the built in TomTom satnav when we bought it - dealer reckoned it cost him a grand to sort - my heart bled, but the upshot it we don't have the code for the radio, so if the battery ever needs changing... Currently trying to persuade Mrs that we should downgrade the insurance to 3rd party - she looked at me like I had 2 heads. Really boils my p*** o spend significant money on it. I need to get her in a relatively good mood to explain why I think we should cancel this mega service and replace...
Or maybe I'll just drive it head on into a Toyota Yaris at 55mph, which is how I ended the life of her previous car

The irony is she really like the MG ZS when I borrowed one for an overnight test drive, and over the next couple of years at least it would probably be cost neutral for us. She just gets scared about the £ per month headline. She's always accused me of being crap with money because I'll get stuff on 0% credit etc - I think she just doesn't understand finance. Why wouldn't you take 0% credit and keep the lump sum in your bank account?!

 

[Harpers Tate]

In every case my new EV was cheaper than a used diesel or petrol car to own, by a lot.

Agree. In my case it was a comparison between

a) the actual costs, incuding depreciation, of the brand new EV I bought in 2017 vs
b) the estimated* costs of continuing to use the 12+ year old diesel it replaced

over a two year period.

I know exactly what the new car was worth after 2 years, because I PXd it for another new one of the same type, updated. And I know what it cost to service and tax, etc. I included domestic and remote actual "fuel" costs and the cost of parking where required to access a remote charger. And so on. To the best of my ability, everything was accounted for. I made no deductions for parking concessions where available to EVs since I typically would park somewhere free anyway.

Net additional cost of running a brand new EV for 2 years vs running the old diesel was within a few £ of zero.

==============
* I sold the diesel so I know what it was worth. I estimated its further reduced value 2 years later. I followed its MOT history on the DVLA site and thereby know it had to have some work done on its front bearings after a year. Cost of that work estimated. Two servies - estimated. I assumed the same mileage as we actually did in the EV and estimated fuel costs based on previous real mpg figures for the diesel and the then current fuel prices. I calculated the road tax. I assumed no difference in insurance premium (there wasn't much when I did change). etc.

 

[david1212]

But most people (and organisations) in the new car market are leasing. The cheapest VW Golf lease I can find is £230/month. The cheapest VW ID3 is £260/ month. Hardly ‘substantially more’.

Add in the respective costs in Vehicle Excise Duty (£155 vs £0), ‘fuel’ (15p mile vs 5p/ mile), maintenance etc, and the ID3 will be cheaper.

Fine for those who can afford / justify ~ £3000 pa capital cost.

In a totally different league to buying 1 - 2 year old used then keeping around 8 years with average depreciation i.e. capital cost of £1000 - £1250 pa. To repeat what I posted yesterday the purchase price is relatively insignificant. i.e it does not matter if pay £20,000 and sell for £10,000 or pay £11,000 and sell / scrappage for £1000.

 

[Bald Rick]

Fine for those who can afford / justify ~ £3000 pa capital cost.

an awful lot of people can, and do.

 

[Bletchleyite]

an awful lot of people can, and do.

And it's great that they do, because they prime the second-hand market for the rest of us (alongside company buyers).

 

[reddragon]

Fine for those who can afford / justify ~ £3000 pa capital cost.

I cannot afford / justify £2.5k in fuel when my annual average is now £70 or car tax, costly servicing & maintenance or slowly killing myself with fumes!

 

[Shrop]

Fine for those who can afford / justify ~ £3000 pa capital cost.

The car market has an unbelievable amount of wasted money in it. Ask yourself how much it costs to have 4WD capabilities in a car - it's actually many £thousands per car. Then think how many thousands of 4WD cars there are on our roads. Now ask yourself how many people really do use these 4WD capabilities of the car, and how many never, ever drive them off road, ie they only ever drive them where 2WD cars are every bit as capable.
Every time it snows you you can see 4WD drivers going gingerly along roads holding everyone else up, even though their cars can cope far better than 2WD cars. It's the same following many 4WD cars over road humps.
Many thousands, or even millions pay small fortunes for capabilities they never use, such is the amount of money around.
This unfair distribution of wealth is such a shame when many less well off people would really appreciate good car capabilities, but simply can't afford them. Then again, most people (arguably often the more well off?) would benefit immensely from more walking and cycling than they actually do ...

 

[Bald Rick]

The car market has an unbelievable amount of wasted money in it.

You can say the same about almost any market. Housing for example. Watches. Gym membership. To pick three at random.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Every time it snows you you can see 4WD drivers going gingerly along roads holding everyone else up, even though their cars can cope far better than 2WD cars. It's the same following many 4WD cars over road humps.

I agree with the general principle, but don't forget that a 4 x 4 with road tyres does not *stop* any more easily than a normal car (all cars have braking on all four wheels) so they are being sensible by driving carefully in winter. You see plenty in ditches from people who don't get that.

 

[reddragon]

The car market has an unbelievable amount of wasted money in it. Ask yourself how much it costs to have 4WD capabilities in a car - it's actually many £thousands per car. Then think how many thousands of 4WD cars there are on our roads. Now ask yourself how many people really do use these 4WD capabilities of the car, and how many never, ever drive them off road, ie they only ever drive them where 2WD cars are every bit as capable.
Every time it snows you you can see 4WD drivers going gingerly along roads holding everyone else up, even though their cars can cope far better than 2WD cars. It's the same following many 4WD cars over road humps.
Many thousands, or even millions pay small fortunes for capabilities they never use, such is the amount of money around.
This unfair distribution of wealth is such a shame when many less well off people would really appreciate good car capabilities, but simply can't afford them. Then again, most people (arguably often the more well off?) would benefit immensely from more walking and cycling than they actually do ...

You sound like my dad, jealous of those who did better than him!

 

[DustyBin]

I agree with the general principle, but don't forget that a 4 x 4 with road tyres does not *stop* any more easily than a normal car (all cars have braking on all four wheels) so they are being sensible by driving carefully in winter. You see plenty in ditches from people who don't get that.

This is true. One of my cars is AWD and whilst it makes no pretence at being an off-road vehicle(!) it has very little grip on snow and ice. It’s all down to the tyres (235/35/R19 semi-slicks in this case).