When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[SuspectUsual]

Well, he's having all the blame pinned on him, when it was a team effort (the only thing they've been a team for, lol). What would you call that, if not a scapegoat?

It isn't scapegoating, its being accountable

 

[nlogax]

Extraordinary PMQs. That may well be Johnson's Geoffrey Howe moment.

As close as we're likely to get anyway. Davis has been thoroughly discredited by his arrogance and incompetence during the Brexit process. He's no Howe.

 

[nw1]

As close as we're likely to get anyway. Davis has been thoroughly discredited by his arrogance and incompetence during the Brexit process. He's no Howe.

But interesting to see someone who ought to be on Johnson's side (as a Brexiter) attack him so blatantly.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

From that I assume that DD can be counted among one of the No-confidence letters.

 

[nlogax]

But interesting to see someone who ought to be on Johnson's side (as a Brexiter) attack him so blatantly.

Indeed, and I think in order to really start the Johnson exit rolling a Howe / Commons moment is needed from someone with a higher profile who's a bit more respected than Davis. Not sure it's going to happen though.

 

[nw1]

Indeed, and I think in order to really start the Johnson exit rolling a Howe / Commons moment is needed from someone with a higher profile who's a bit more respected than Davis. Not sure it's going to happen though.

Are there any Howe figures left though?

Perhaps someone like May or Hunt would be relatively respected, amongst the bag of contemptibles that comprises the senior Tory politicians still standing.

 

[nlogax]

Perhaps someone like May or Hunt would be relatively respected, amongst the bag of contemptibles that comprises the senior Tory politicians still standing.

Both stood to ask questions of Johnson in the ongoing Covid debate, sadly neither of them did the deed. I was rather hoping they would!

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I guess for a genuine Howe moment it would need to be someone respected within the government, who would not be considered to be acting to promote their own interest in becoming leader /PM. Not sure who that would be, considering the profile of current ministers

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

"In the name of God, go" - David Davis to Johnson in PMQs

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he.

 

[brad465]

Apologies - it's Politics Live on BBC 2 that I've been watching.

Great thank you, found the moment, and it just so happens Andrew Bowie tweeted about the experience:

https://twitter.com/AndrewBowie_MP/status/1483777699780993025

Ahhh...the joy of live TV

 

[Busaholic]

Well, he would say that, wouldn't he.

Hardly, as a prominent supporter of Johnson to be Tory leader from the word go: also the guy who fought Cameron for the leadership before that and was the favourite before the focus groups were seduced by DC's oleaginous 'charm'. It's the statement of someone sickened by Johnson's Etonian arrogance.

 

[FrodshamJnct]

From that I assume that DD can be counted among one of the No-confidence letters.

He has stated to the BBC after PMQs that he hasn't sent a letter.

 

[Busaholic]

He has stated to the BBC after PMQs that he hasn't sent a letter.

He's never been a backstabber.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Joe Pike's claim was sent around 9pm this evening, so I suspect tomorrow morning we'll know. Sir Graham Brady is obliged to publicly declare if the minimum number of letters has been reached; if no statement comes tomorrow then it's not true.

Any news yet today?

 

[Kez]

Any news yet today?

Apparently not. There are still not 54 Tory MPs who find Johnson's behaviour abhorrent. Remarkable really because there are probably not that number outside Westminster.

Makes you proud to be British.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Apparently not. There are still not 54 Tory MPs who find Johnson's behaviour abhorrent.

There probably are, they're just waiting for the correct time to do it. Remember, if the vote fails, it's a year before they can invoke another one.

 

[birchesgreen]

I read something that said if they do the letters now then the no confidence vote would be friday which is an inopportune time compared to next week.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There probably are, they're just waiting for the correct time to do it. Remember, if the vote fails, it's a year before they can invoke another one.

That should prove a motivation for Cummins to produce more of his revelations in the interim period.

Just imagine if someone like Cummins dared to reveal a few juicy Soviet-style "Putin stories" in Russia, what fate do you think would await them?

 

[nlogax]

From here it looks like a VONC would fail, leaving the Conservatives to hobble on until May's local elections at which point the court of democratic opinion may point the way forward for Johnson's future. Although being immune from a further VONC for the best part of a year may scupper things there if he chooses not to resign.

 

[birchesgreen]

Its the chaos of the May regime all over again.

 

[nlogax]

Its the chaos of the May regime all over again.

Could be worse. Remember how Cameron warned of the chaos we'd have with Ed Miliband as PM?

*coughs to self*

 

[SuspectUsual]

That should prove a motivation for Cummins to produce more of his revelations in the interim period.

Just imagine if someone like Cummins dared to reveal a few juicy Soviet-style "Putin stories" in Russia, what fate do you think would await them?

You do like your whataboutery-style comparisons don't you?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

From here it looks like a VONC would fail, leaving the Conservatives to hobble on until May's local elections at which point the court of democratic opinion may point the way forward for Johnson's future. Although being immune from a further VONC for the best part of a year may scupper things there if he chooses not to resign.

Mid-term of office for any incumbent Government is always a dreaded time to look forward to. It has always been so.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Jan 2022 ==

You do like your whataboutery-style comparisons don't you?

Indeed I do. They brighten up the darkest day....

 

[birchesgreen]

Could be worse. Remember how Cameron warned of the chaos we'd have with Ed Miliband as PM?

*coughs to self*

I know we definitely dodged a bullet there!

 

[nw1]

Could be worse. Remember how Cameron warned of the chaos we'd have with Ed Miliband as PM?

*coughs to self*

Quite.

 

[Busaholic]

There are sources, including Dan Hodges and Christopher Hope, who are claiming some of the whips have jumped ship, which if true means Johnson is a sitting duck. Joe Pike from Sky also has heard reports as of 1-2 hours ago that 54 letters have been sent.

I suspect they've got it completely wrong (not at all uncommon with Dan Hodges, at least.) The Chief Whip and his underlings spent all yesterday threatening and otherwise undermining those of the new cohort of Tory MPs thought to be considering writing letters to Graham Brady. Christian Wakeford was named by the Times yesterday as being prominent in that group, so doubtless got the full treatment, and was probably told he had no chance of ministerial preferment ever if he went ahead. Unfortunately, his defection might mean the chance of those 54 letters being sent may have been set back.

 

[Bodiddly]

He stands accused of breaching a legal matter, yet you end your posting dismissing legality.

You talk about legality and how wording matters. Maybe your head is so far wobbled you don't realise the general public don't give a toss about the finer details. We are now witnessing a pantomime regarding these parties. We're not stupid but the Tories and in particular Johnson, are treating us like idiots.
Well, we're not idiots and we see right through them.
You've now got these ridiculous Covid policies coming out to try and save some face on the ongoing situation. An immediate return to work? How the hell is that going to work over the next few days when a number of people either have Covid or are isolating because of it?
A complete and utter shambles of a PM and Government.

 

[Busaholic]

Here's how I see Johnson's term in office ending, if Sue Gray's report ends with something like this statement:-

' I find it almost impossible to believe that the Prime Minister was unaware that the May gathering in the back garden at 10 Downing Street was a social, not work, occasion'.

I think even Johnson would then realise he'd received his P45 , and if he didn't he'd soon learn in no uncertain terms from his MPs. Being Johnson and 'frit' personified he'd make a statement outside 10 Downing Street rather than in the Commons, then have to go face to face with the Queen (oh, to be a fly on the wall!)

I still maintain my position that this will happen by 26th i.e. next Wednesday, but the report may not be available by then of course.

 

[MattRat]

Here's how I see Johnson's term in office ending, if Sue Gray's report ends with something like this statement:-

' I find it almost impossible to believe that the Prime Minister was unaware that the May gathering in the back garden at 10 Downing Street was a social, not work, occasion'.

I think even Johnson would then realise he'd received his P45 , and if he didn't he'd soon learn in no uncertain terms from his MPs. Being Johnson and 'frit' personified he'd make a statement outside 10 Downing Street rather than in the Commons, then have to go face to face with the Queen (oh, to be a fly on the wall!)

I still maintain my position that this will happen by 26th i.e. next Wednesday, but the report may not be available by then of course.

So after the lifting of all Covid restrictions? Unless the government somehow does the world record backpeddle when Johnson is gone, of course. I might go and grab some popcorn.....

 

[TheEdge]

I still maintain my position that this will happen by 26th i.e. next Wednesday, but the report may not be available by then of course.

That'll be a lovely birthday present for me.