But then what? It’s cutting off the nose to spite the face, because you’ll then either be stuck with ancient and falling apart 455s, or you’ll have to order something new which will take at least three years! Whereas if you stick with the 701s, yes it’s unacceptable but you’ll probably only be waiting for them another year at most. Maybe even two years, which would be shocking and disgraceful, but it’ll still bring new trains into service faster than we could by ordering from scratch now.
If you were buying a new car, and your only option was a car that had 1500 faults (which is what some of the 701s have been found to have), would you take the sub standard new car, or would you make do with the car you already had for a bit longer until a more suitable replacement was available? Most people would choose the latter option.
As for lead times on new stock that all depends on a number of factors. If you’re ordering an already produced design that’s known to work reliably, all the equipment is in place for the work and the factory has capacity, you could have alternative units starting to roll off the production line within 6 months, and potentially in service after little more than a year. The primary reason most new orders take a lot longer is because a lot of design work has to be done before production begins, that wouldn’t be needed in the case of an alternative order from Siemens, and little would be needed for an alternative order from CAF or Hitachi (in both cases simply reducing a 23m design to 20m) of an alternative proven product. Even Stadler could probably adapt the 777 design to be suitable for SWR and deliver it in a reasonable timescale.
I can’t actually believe I’m recommending CAF as an alternative given their known issues, but at least they’ve managed to get units built and working in a reasonable timeframe.
As things currently stand there is a good chance of Stadler’s Tyne & Wear Metro units making it into service before the 701s. That would be pretty damning of the Aventra design as the Stadler units for Metro were ordered almost 3 years later than the 701s were.
Depends on the lead time for something standard like the 707. The 350/2s were ordered in late August/September 2007 but the first 10 entered service in December 2008. The 707s took about 2 years from order to into service and it won't be that long for more with driver training already been done on some drivers.
ÖBB have got a 16 month lead time on the Desiro MLs they’ve ordered from Siemens to replace the Talent 3 order. That includes time for driver training (as the units aren’t for the same regions as their existing Desiro MLs), which wouldn’t be needed to the same extent on SWR as many drivers already sign 707s.