Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Freightmaster]

Issued an ultimatum by whom, and what authority do they have to subject the prime minister to an ultimatum?

You've obviously never watched 'Yes, Prime Minister'!





MARK

 

[35B]

Who is denying what?

I think those who refuse to accept that the endgame is endemic equilibrium are in denial.

In the context of my comments, that Covid represents a risk to individuals, and that vaccines are of benefit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2021 ==

The Daily Mail is all over the place on covid opinions, it's reported both sides of the argument as if it supports either one of them.

You mean it's desperately trying to hang on to it's status as fearmonger in chief to middle England, and doesn't know whether it's readers are more afraid of Covid or restrictions?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2021 ==

I agree, there is indeed deep denial at work. There’s also evidence of a complete lack of analysis (not just risk analysis, analysis in general) in some posts. And critical thinking. All from those advocating restrictions……

Also from some - not all - of those opposing them. Some, frankly, constitute wishful thinking.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2021 ==

Issued an ultimatum by whom, and what authority do they have to subject the prime minister to an ultimatum?

The PM is a politician, and relies on political authority to do things. If he loses that authority, then an ultimatum can work quite easily - because he can't compel people to do differently. He is first among equals, not some kind of deity.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2021 ==

It is difficult or impossible for us to judge.

I think that significant numbers of NHS staff are self isolating because they have been "pinged" by the App, or have tested positive for COVID themselves.

There are two issues with this:-

• How accurate is the App? Has it been set to be too sensitive, so that it identifies more people than is strictly necessary as close contacts of an infected person?
• Is it really necessary to self isolate for 10 days, and could a shorter period combined with regular testing be more appropriate?

Shortening the self isolation period is one measure that could be taken immediately. This would reduce staff shortages, and the consequent stress and pressure on the NHS and its staff.

Except that NHS workers aren't supposed to use the app at work. As for isolation periods, that might work - or it might actually make things worse by providing an additional route for infection.

 

[Eyersey468]

I'm glad questions about the modelling are being asked by those in authority, just a shame it wasn't done sooner.

 

[yorkie]

In the context of my comments, that Covid represents a risk to individuals, and that vaccines are of benefit.

There are perhaps about 4 people who could be seen as questioning vaccines on this forum (out of over 4000 active members) but I don't think they are denying that vaccines are of benefit? Have any of them stated vulnerable people shouldn't be vaccinated or that they would choose not to be vaccinated if they were an elderly or at risk person?

I don't agree with their views but I think if we are going to have a constructive discussion you could quote which parts of their posts you disagree with and why you disagree; if anyone is questioning the effectiveness of vaccines I am more than happy to disagree with them.

But the people you are referring to are, I think, making a decision which we may disagree with but which they are entitled to. As long as they are not actively encouraging others not to take the vaccine I don't think there is a problem. It is a difficult area becuause I think we have to respect people having a different opinion on this, even though we may very fundamentally disagree with them. I don't think anyone is denying that Covid represents a risk to invidividuals but the risk to any given individual is generally very low (an unvaccinated 70 year old is obviously not included in that category) and if we are going to get into those levels of risk, we should be questioning all sorts of aspects of our lives.

The messaging on vaccine effectiveness when Omicron was first discovered was absolutely appalling with senior people making statements that suggest the vaccines are less effective; completely missing the point that the purpose of vaccines is to avoid severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths, and that there was absolutely no evidence of more severe outcomes (in vaccinated or unvaccinated) people with Omicron and therefore no basis to sugges vaccines were no longer effective.

Fortunately they changed their messaging, though still not the ideal message, but at least the new messaging was worded in a way tha encouraged uptake of booster doses.

The people who have been most vocal against vaccine effectiveness (at least in terms of what gets reported and what I read/see/here) is actually coming from people who support restrictions; there are numerous people who falsely claim that vaccines are ineffective in order to push the narrative for restrictons. I see those people are deeply irresponsible and dangerous, however there is far too little pushback against such individuals and their views.

Anti-vaxxers don't get much airtime and people quite rightly dismiss their views as nonsense, but why is it that vaccine efficacy deniers do get a lot of airtime and get a lot of the policies they are advocting implemented? It's an absolutely insane situation and Omicron hasn't helped as it has spurred these people on to make even more false/misleading claims about vaccine effectiveness with the latest variant.

I'm glad questions about the modelling are being asked by those in authority, just a shame it wasn't done sooner.

Agreed. I think the issue with the modelling is not the models themselves as such, but some of the parameters that are input into the system. For example an optimistic scenario should include the possibility that the medical experts in South Africa are correct. It made no sense for the most optimistic model to still make the assumption that Omicron was no less virulent than Delta when all the available evidence from SA was (and still is) suggesting that Omicron is milder. Fair enough to have the pessimistic scenario as assuming that they were incorrect, but it should not have been used for all scenarios.

 

[yorksrob]

The PM is a politician, and relies on political authority to do things. If he loses that authority, then an ultimatum can work quite easily - because he can't compel people to do differently. He is first among equals, not some kind of deity.

He is first among equals with his cabinet, not SAGE. They are there to advise, nothing more.

 

[DustyBin]

How many on this website think that mention of the numbers of front line NHS staff said to be affected and therefore reducing the numbers of available staff in hospitals are untruths?

I don't think it's untrue, however the overwhelming majority of these these people won't be too unwell to go to work. They're sat at home twiddling their thumbs as a result of our isolation policy. As I said the other day it's a man made problem.

Both sides of the argument are in denial if you ask me. They only look at evidence that supports their own particular narrative and deride anything that doesn't. There is insufficient evidence of what Omicron is really like IMO - although I'm sure more will become available as time goes by - so in the meantime I will err on the side of caution.

You're probably right, we're all guilty of it to varying extents. In regard to Omicron the evidence we do have strongly suggests that it's more transmissible but causes milder symptoms. Fears that it could evade vaccine induced immunity to a significant degree also seem to be unfounded. Natural immunity appears to offer excellent protection. The biggest danger at this stage therefore is that we cripple the NHS, as well as wider society and the economy, by trying to control the uncontrollable.

I've no problem with individuals erring on the side of caution, everyone's circumstances are different. My issue is that there are those who wish to make decisions for me. The bar for this kind of state intervention should be set incredibly high, and as there is no evidence to support the assertion that Omicron poses a serious threat to public health, we are some way short of that bar at present.

 

[21C101]

How many on this website think that mention of the numbers of front line NHS staff said to be affected and therefore reducing the numbers of available staff in hospitals are untruths?

That is not the point.

Having a lockdown because if you don't half a million will die (the stated reason in March 2020) is one thing.

Locking down and ruining businesses, livlihoods and mental health because of pote tial staff shortage in hospitals is another matter entirely.

 

[Simon11]

Except that NHS workers aren't supposed to use the app at work. As for isolation periods, that might work - or it might actually make things worse by providing an additional route for infection.

Reducing the isolating periods could increase infection, however are NHS staff mandated to carry out regular tests? I would assume there is a bigger risk from staff working in hospitals who are carrying the virus without knowing it.

Answered my own question...

How frequently should I carry out an LFD test? You should carry out LFD testing twice weekly, so every three to four days to fit with shift patterns and leave requirements: for example, Wednesday and Sunday, or Monday and Thursday.

Source: Lateral flow antigen tests for asymptomatic staff testing, Frequently asked questions – NHS trusts (organisations and staff) including community interest companies. 8 September 2021, Version 2

 

[Eyersey468]

Boris Johnson to hold emergency Cabinet meeting at 2pm

Boris Johnson will assemble his Cabinet to thrash out the Government's response to surging Omicron cases.

metro.co.uk

Boris Johnson is holding an emergency Cabinet meeting this afternoon as people brace for lockdown restrictions over the Omicron variant.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Boris Johnson to hold emergency Cabinet meeting at 2pm

Boris Johnson will assemble his Cabinet to thrash out the Government's response to surging Omicron cases.

metro.co.uk

Because doing the same thing over and over gets a totally different result each time, is he wanting to be forced out? We can’t have another lockdown

 

[Class 33]

Absolutely NO to another pointless wreckless damaging lockdown! If he announces it tonight, it will have to be approved by a parliament vote and if so I hope it is heavily defeated this time(unlike all the other parliament votes on restrictions which have all won).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Absolutely NO to another pointless wreckless damaging lockdown! If he announces it tonight, it will have to be approved by a parliament vote and if so I hope it is heavily defeated this time(unlike all the other parliament votes on restrictions which have all won).

What is the view of the Labour Party on the matter of lockdowns?

 

[kez19]

Boris Johnson to hold emergency Cabinet meeting at 2pm

Boris Johnson will assemble his Cabinet to thrash out the Government's response to surging Omicron cases.

metro.co.uk

I see the media write the story themselves… “people brace for lockdown restrictions”. Any chance we can get a gagging order on the media first?

Why not we wait and see than speculate - that’s one thing the media have clearly not learnt since this started.

 

[Simon11]

Boris Johnson to hold emergency Cabinet meeting at 2pm

Boris Johnson will assemble his Cabinet to thrash out the Government's response to surging Omicron cases.

metro.co.uk

I am more interested in the bold statement below. I don't think we have to be worried about a lockdown and appears that the model presented at yesterday COBRA session is being refined

The PM and Chancellor Rishi Sunak are said to be among the ministers reluctant to support new measures before Christmas, The Times reports.

It comes after the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance reportedly urged for restrictions to be brought in as soon as possible to prevent the health service being overwhelmed.

Mr Johnson has reportedly been presented with three options to tackle the spread of the virus.

They range from guidance asking people to limit indoor contacts, to rules on household mixing, social distancing and a curfew on pubs and restaurants, and thirdly a full lockdown.

One unnamed minister told The Telegraph data presented by Sir Patrick and Chris Whitty was ‘just trashed by the Cabinet’.

The source said ‘guidelines, rather than restrictions, are entirely possible’.

 

[Eyersey468]

I see the media write the story themselves… “people brace for lockdown restrictions”. Any chance we can get a gagging order on the media first?

Why not we wait and see than speculate - that’s one thing the media have clearly not learnt since this started.

Completely agree. The last thing the country needs is another lockdown.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The President of South Africa is back in the office today, 7 days after testing positive.

Should we not be viewing what is the view of those in power in the larger European countries when making comparisons?

 

[Simon11]

What is the view of the Labour Party on the matter of lockdowns?

Easy to answer, Labour follow anything Boris proposes or harsher...

 

[Drogba11CFC]

What is the view of the Labour Party on the matter of lockdowns?

That a lockdown until the heat death of the universe doesn't go far enough.

 

[YorkshireBear]

The horrible feeling of deja vu here is brutal. Last Christmas we didn't properly get to see friends and family, but with vaccines starting to be rolled out there was an air of, well we are nearly there, about the place. Yet here we are but this time fully vaccinated but still facing possible restrictions, and if they don't announce it now, I am pretty sure it will come after Christmas. Maybe I am just preparing myself for the worst as I expect nothing better from the current crop. Although pleased to see data is being challenged, but you have to ask why has it taken until now?

 

[kez19]

Completely agree. The last thing the country needs is another lockdown.

By looking at it by and only quoting Metro - seems like media are already having a few pints themselves.

 

[Class 33]

That GMB poll was 17% YES and 83% NO this morning. It's now just 11% YES and 88% NO.

Was feeling a bit more positive this morning that there won't be another blasted lockdown announced. However there is now an "Emergency cabinet meeting" at 2pm, and a Downing Street News Conference at 5pm. So I'm getting a bit worried again. If it's with Johnson and also Whitty and Vallance, and Johnson comes out looking all grim and stressed, then expect it to be bad news for us. Either a full lockdown or option 2 which means the return of the dreaded social distancing restrictions and all the problems for the economy and people's mental health that will cause all over again.

 

[Gricer99]

I tested positive this weekend. Symptoms are like a head cold, no worse. I can still smell and taste so I’m guessing it is Omicron.
Maybe because I’ve had the booster the symptoms are so light, who knows?
But if this is as bad as it gets, there is no need for a lockdown, let the vulnerable be protected but let it run and we will be fine.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Are there any European countries already with measures in force that have been decried in postings on this thread?

 

[MikeWM]

The horrible feeling of deja vu here is brutal.

And entirely deliberate. As I've pointed out a number of times in the past year or so, we're in an abusive relationship with our government.

 

[DerekC]

I agree, there is indeed deep denial at work. There’s also evidence of a complete lack of analysis (not just risk analysis, analysis in general) in some posts. And critical thinking. All from those advocating restrictions……

I fully agree with your post, just except for the last half-sentence, which I think is the opposite of the truth. The pandemic seems, at macro level, to have gone roughly in line with the predictions made by the virologists and epidemiologists as soon as the characteristics of the virus were clear. Most people on this thread seem to have convinced themselves, through a combination of wishful thinking and selection of facts that they like, that some easier set of options is possible which will magically result in less damage to the economy and very few extra deaths. If there is any coherent analysis to support this I haven't seen it, so this amounts to a belief, not a rational conclusion.

 

[Aaron1]

The chances of a full lockdown is very unlikely, parliament will need to be recalled and imposing yet another lockdown will just make Boris even more unpopular than he already is

 

[Peterthegreat]

I fully agree with your post, just except for the last half-sentence, which I think is the opposite of the truth. The pandemic seems, at macro level, to have gone roughly in line with the predictions made by the virologists and epidemiologists as soon as the characteristics of the virus were clear. Most people on this thread seem to have convinced themselves, through a combination of wishful thinking and selection of facts that they like, that some easier set of options is possible which will magically result in less damage to the economy and very few extra deaths. If there is any coherent analysis to support this I haven't seen it, so this amounts to a belief, not a rational conclusion.

I agree. There seems to be a belief if we don't impose restrictions life for most people will go on as normal. It won't. We are already seeing lots of train cancellations due to staff testing positive or isolating, many health centres/hospitals are short of staff, my local chippy is closed due to staff having tested positive. My Christmas lunch has been cancelled because the host has tested positive today. Most people agree the number of people testing positive will continue to increase so the number of these sorts of incidents will also increase.
I am not pro-lockdown but we cannot just pretend things will be normal if we don't.

 

[MikeWM]

I fully agree with your post, just except for the last half-sentence, which I think is the opposite of the truth. The pandemic seems, at macro level, to have gone roughly in line with the predictions made by the virologists and epidemiologists as soon as the characteristics of the virus were clear. Most people on this thread seem to have convinced themselves, through a combination of wishful thinking and selection of facts that they like, that some easier set of options is possible which will magically result in less damage to the economy and very few extra deaths. If there is any coherent analysis to support this I haven't seen it, so this amounts to a belief, not a rational conclusion.

Sweden, Florida, Texas, South Dakota. We don't need models, we have real-life examples.

 

[brick60000]

I cannot withstand the mental health impact of yet another lockdown. I can also not withstand this constant carrot dangling being pulled away and replaced with a stick. It’s absolutely destroying the confidence of so many people. Every time I hug my family, my friends & my boyfriend goodbye I am absolutely petrified it will be the last time I’m legally able to do so for another 6 months. How, just how, is the mental health impact this is having on so many flying so successfully under the radar???

My intolerance this time particularly relates to the lack of any clear exit from this. We always questioned the exit strategy of a lockdown and the answer “vaccines” was given. Well we’ve got those, we’ve had them. IF a lockdown is needed, then how on earth do we get away from this? What is the golden ticket this time?

Mental health awareness is supposedly at an all time high. Clearly not within the ranks our government and their advisors.

 

[kristiang85]

Are there any European countries already with measures in force that have been decried in postings on this thread?

Netherlands for sure.

COVID-19: Netherlands enters new nationwide lockdown to curb Omicron spread

It will reportedly build on the 5pm to 5am curfew already in place for most shops, bars, and restaurants in the country, which was introduced at the end of last month, and last until 14 January.

news.sky.com

The Netherlands has entered into a tough lockdown to curb the spread of Omicron, with non-essential shops, bars, restaurants, and other public places to close.

Schools will also shut from Monday, and the lockdown will run until at least 14 January, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced.

He said it was "unavoidable because of the fifth wave caused by the Omicron variant that is bearing down on us".