Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Baxenden Bank]

One for the older generation.

Anyone remember The Kenny Everett Television Show, BBC 1981-88?

Everytime someone mentions the Omicron variant (especially when pronounced as in micro, micro-brewery, microscope etc), I get flashbacks of his character Cupid Stunt.

O Micron, it's all done in the best possible taste.

from Wikipedia

Thames Television claimed copyright on Everett's characters and tried to prevent their use by the BBC. Although this action failed, it did lead to the creation of new characters such as orange-haired punk Gizzard Puke (intended to replace Sid Snot) and the spooneristically named Cupid Stunt, a blonde, glamorous American B-movie actress with pneumatic breasts. Played in full drag but with no attempt to disguise Everett's beard, she told a cardboard cutout of Michael Parkinson (and later Terry Wogan) about her latest trashy film projects, and lurid tales of life on set with Burt Reynolds and other male stars of the era. Her final action in each sketch was to uncross her legs then swing them wildly to recross them (brazenly giving viewers an eyeful of her racy red lingerie) as she uttered the catchphrase "It's all done in the best possible taste!"

Back to the serious stuff....

 

[Ediswan]

Technically isn't it "meeting in COBRA to be held at 5pm"?
Probably a bit too pedantic though!

The committee is named after the meeting room.

 

[duncanp]

Today’s covid data out and still no visible increase in hospital attendance, yet alone any signs of hospitals being overwhelmed.

This is the point - every day this "NHS will be overwhelmed" figleaf is getting smaller and smaller, and it is more difficult for SAGE and all the locktivists to hide behind it.

It is all very well to say "cases will peak at X per day", or "hospitalisations will peak at Y per day", but what is crucially important is how long they stay at their peak level.

If cases go up very fast, they are likely to come down just as quickly, because the virus will run out of people to infect much sooner.

Then you have to consider, the percentage of cases who end up in hospital, how long they stay in hospital for, and the proportion of hospitalisations that will require intensive care.

Once these figures are available, you have to consider whether the NHS can cope, and if not what treatments have to be deferred.

All of these factors will contribute to "pressure on the NHS", and so it is crucial not to ignore any of them.

If there hasn't been a noticeable increase is hospitalisations by the New Year, then it will be more and more difficult to argue that the NHS will not be able to cope.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

The committee is named after the meeting room.

Is COBRA: Christmas Operation Bring Real Ale.

 

[duncanp]

Is COBRA: Christmas Operation Bring Real Ale.

Come On Boris, Resignation Accelerated.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Some numbers.
NHS statistics on COVID bed occupancy

Total beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00)

03-Dec-21​

04-Dec-21​

05-Dec-21​

06-Dec-21​

07-Dec-21​

08-Dec-21​

09-Dec-21​

10-Dec-21​

11-Dec-21​

12-Dec-21​

13-Dec-21​

14-Dec-21​

England

5,573​

5,491​

5,601​

5,682​

5,697​

5,713​

5,763​

5,726​

5,731​

5,840​

5,970​

5,986​

East of England

519​

506​

516​

542​

546​

549​

560​

566​

570​

583​

620​

628​

London

1,017​

1,006​

1,040​

1,057​

1,079​

1,083​

1,111​

1,139​

1,147​

1,196​

1,274​

1,248​

Midlands

1,096​

1,066​

1,081​

1,082​

1,089​

1,114​

1,093​

1,077​

1,105​

1,112​

1,058​

1,152​

North East and Yorkshire

906​

892​

892​

912​

900​

889​

881​

850​

841​

836​

861​

837​

North West

735​

716​

760​

737​

758​

741​

757​

760​

736​

759​

779​

762​

South East

766​

783​

795​

819​

788​

793​

816​

797​

800​

825​

830​

823​

South West

534​

522​

517​

533​

537​

544​

545​

537​

532​

529​

548​

536​

Confirmed COVID-19 patients who are being treated primarily for COVID-19 (as at 08:00)

Name

03-Dec-21​

04-Dec-21​

05-Dec-21​

06-Dec-21​

07-Dec-21​

08-Dec-21​

09-Dec-21​

10-Dec-21​

11-Dec-21​

12-Dec-21​

13-Dec-21​

14-Dec-21​

ENGLAND

4,115​

4,061​

4,125​

4,235​

4,214​

4,217​

4,276​

4,225​

4,247​

4,358​

4,404​

4,387​

East of England

367​

364​

371​

402​

391​

417​

419​

420​

439​

450​

481​

471​

London

837​

826​

850​

873​

905​

900​

907​

925​

912​

946​

984​

963​

Midlands

715​

681​

696​

704​

706​

718​

717​

693​

673​

735​

688​

747​

North East and Yorkshire

622​

623​

619​

638​

627​

617​

614​

596​

606​

588​

599​

580​

North West

538​

525​

570​

540​

539​

510​

533​

534​

558​

576​

576​

554​

South East

587​

594​

583​

630​

605​

608​

637​

609​

616​

635​

626​

640​

South West

449​

448​

436​

448​

441​

447​

449​

448​

443​

428​

450​

432​

 

[brad465]

I'm seeing reports that Steve Barclay is attending COBRA instead of Johnson. Can't tell if this is a good or a bad thing.

 

[MikeWM]

Some numbers.
NHS statistics on COVID bed occupancy

That's really useful, thanks! Finally some place we can find an attempt to distinguish between 'with' and 'of'. This could be very important over the next few weeks.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

That's really useful, thanks! Finally some place we can find an attempt to distinguish between 'with' and 'of'. This could be very important over the next few weeks.

There are caveats to the numbers, as explained on the spreadsheets, a variety are available including daily admissions.

These weekly updates are also informative:
UK Health Security Agency - Weekly Surveillance Reports

 

[Busaholic]

I don't like to dive into whataboutery often, but I think if they were in power they wouldn't have got away with anywhere near everything they've supported/demanded; the press would have scrutinised them far more strongly, and certain newspapers may even have demanded civil disobedience in response to restrictions (especially if "communist Corbyn" was in charge).

That said if I was the Labour leadership I'd be demanding all the essential data showing costs and benefits of all restrictions, considering finances and all health problems, get published before a vote on a set level of restrictions. If such a disclosure reveals a poor cost to benefit analysis, or they fail to publish one at all, that's an automatic vote against.

Piers Corbyn has now been arrested for inciting civil disobedience, specifically arson, during public demonstrations in London earlier in the week. Naturally, having inherited the same genes as Brother Jeremy, he describes any further restrictions as being evidence of a Fascist government. He obviously wants to be a martyr, rather than just the rather stupid and ineffectual individual he's spent most of his 74 years becoming.

If Corbyn's Labour had attained power, I suspect his time at the helm would be over by now, a combination of constant media hostility and internecine party warfare having done for him. Somehow I think elements high in policing would also have seen much more appetite to act on supposed infractions in the public sphere than they do with the Tories, the Met in particular.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Come On Boris, Resignation Accelerated.

I'll correct that one for you:
Come On, Boris Resignation Accepted.

 

[Class 466]

This is the point - every day this "NHS will be overwhelmed" figleaf is getting smaller and smaller, and it is more difficult for SAGE and all the locktivists to hide behind it.

It is all very well to say "cases will peak at X per day", or "hospitalisations will peak at Y per day", but what is crucially important is how long they stay at their peak level.

If cases go up very fast, they are likely to come down just as quickly, because the virus will run out of people to infect much sooner.

Then you have to consider, the percentage of cases who end up in hospital, how long they stay in hospital for, and the proportion of hospitalisations that will require intensive care.

Once these figures are available, you have to consider whether the NHS can cope, and if not what treatments have to be deferred.

All of these factors will contribute to "pressure on the NHS", and so it is crucial not to ignore any of them.

If there hasn't been a noticeable increase is hospitalisations by the New Year, then it will be more and more difficult to argue that the NHS will not be able to cope.

The big issue is sickness amongst NHS staff as well as other industries at the moment. All well and good having beds for patients but they’re pointless if there’s no nurses to care for them. Therefore the NHS can indeed become overwhelmed that way.

 

[21C101]

The big issue is sickness amongst NHS staff as well as other industries at the moment. All well and good having beds for patients but they’re pointless if there’s no nurses to care for them. Therefore the NHS can indeed become overwhelmed that way.

That is because of the government insisting people isolate for ten days if testing positive to something they have been vaccinated against two or three times.

ie self inflicted.

 

[Simon11]

The big issue is sickness amongst NHS staff as well as other industries at the moment. All well and good having beds for patients but they’re pointless if there’s no nurses to care for them. Therefore the NHS can indeed become overwhelmed that way.

Is it sickness or having to unnecessary isolate for longer than really needed?

One point to note on the hospital data is that it is heavily delayed (Headline figures based on data to 13th Dec atm) and not all updated daily like cases and vaccination data.

 

[brad465]

That is because of the government insisting people isolate for ten days if testing positive to something they have been vaccinated against two or three times.

ie self inflicted.

It's also because there are not enough staff in the first place. There's a shortage of at least 40,000, probably more now, for existing hospitals/facilities.

 

[MikeWM]

It's also because there are not enough staff in the first place. There's a shortage of at least 40,000, probably more now, for existing hospitals/facilities.

Plus many will likely be starting to move to other jobs rather than wait to get fired on April 1st for not being vaccinated. And many of those choosing to remain *for now* may not be working as hard as they would otherwise (I'd certainly stop going 'above and beyond' for my employer if I knew I was getting sacked soon).

 

[Peter Mugridge]

The question is who asked them only to model the doom scenarios and omit the better ones.

I would have thought that such an order would have had to have come from either Hancock or Johnson.

If it was the former, we would also need to know did he do it with or without Johnson's knowledge?

As the forecasts coming out of SAGE are still stuffed full of gloom and doom, we have to assume the policy is still in place - to the question now needs to include whether or not Javid is aware of it. If he is not ( or at least was not until that tweet exchange yesterday brought it into the public sphere ), then that would surely point the finger very firmly towards Johnson?

 

[AlterEgo]

This is what Javid said back in September.....


View attachment 107272

But there wasn’t Omicron then either.

 

[DustyBin]

I share the frustration of @Kez; the determination of some to deny the implications of their behaviour on themselves and others defies belief.

What implications are these? I asked our friend @Kez to provide some evidence to support the assertion that the unvaccinated pose more risk of asymptomatic transmission than the vaccinated. I’m yet to see any. If @John Luxton was advocating going out with symptoms and coughing over people I’d join you in telling him he’s a naughty boy, but he isn’t. His behaviour is perfectly reasonable.

By contrast, I have huge respect for @LowLevel and his clear sighted acceptance of the risk trade-offs that are involved. I'm not sure I'd make completely the same judgements as him, but I absolutely support the process behind them.

We all accept the risk trade-offs, well those of us opposed to restrictions anyway. That’s the whole basis of our argument!

Sensible risk management involves accurately assessing the risk against both the probability and consequence if it happens. In my working life, the worst outcomes have consistently come about when people have chosen not to acknowledge a risk, or the role of mitigation, and just taken the "it'll never happen" path.

Whilst I shan’t accuse you of creating a straw man, nobody is refusing to acknowledge the risk, to themselves or others. Not everybody buys into the “if you’re not vaccinated you’re a danger to yourself and others” narrative however. If you have symptoms stay at home, it’s as simple as that.

 

[brad465]

But there wasn’t Omicron then either.

But there had been plenty of variants to say that they'll crop up again in future, and what Theresa May said in Parliament recently about how there'll always be variants and we can't shut down for them all was being said/thought by others pre-Omicron.

 

[52290]

Is COBRA: Christmas Operation Bring Real Ale.

I'm waiting for some brewery to bring out a beer called Omicron Bitter, or preferably Omicron Mild.

 

[DustyBin]

But there had been plenty of variants to say that they'll crop up again in future, and what Theresa May said in Parliament recently about how there'll always be variants and we can't shut down for them all was being said/thought by others pre-Omicron.

We’ve been saying this for what, 18 months now? Variants are the key to a never ending pandemic, which is exactly what some people seem to want……

 

[farleigh]

I'm waiting for some brewery to bring out a beer called Omicron Bitter, or preferably Omicron Mild.

 

[Simon11]

Careful, you may get a mild hangover from it

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Today’s covid data out and still no visible increase in hospital attendance, yet alone any signs of hospitals being overwhelmed.

Interesting to see the media still showing a worrying picture but not being able to mention any concerns on hospitals with the use of data and evidence! [whether from UK or abroad.....]

Hospital data doesn't get updated over the weekend. NHS national entities only update Mon-Fri so we will get a good idea tomorrow whats happened over the last 3 days as by now there should be a definitive trend emerging albeit the lag on hospital admissions from positive test is upto 14 days. Thus it will be close to end of December before admissions spiral upto the forecasters 4000/day scenarios based on recent cases increases.

 

[duncanp]

I'm seeing reports that Steve Barclay is attending COBRA instead of Johnson. Can't tell if this is a good or a bad thing.

I would have though it is a good sign.

If restrictions were imminent (ie. before Christmas) I would have thought that Boris Johnson would have attended personally.

They are probably talking about compensation packages for the various sectors affected by the Omicron outbreak.

 

[brad465]

I would have though it is a good sign.

If restrictions were imminent (ie. before Christmas) I would have thought that Boris Johnson would have attended personally.

They are probably talking about compensation packages for the various sectors affected by the Omicron outbreak.

Considering this report has emerged of extra funding being provided to all the devolved nations to tackle covid, it's possible that was indeed the main discussion:

Covid: Scotland to receive additional emergency Treasury money

The Scottish government disputes the chancellor's claim it represents a doubling of additional funds.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scotland is to receive an extra £220m from the UK government to help tackle Covid-19.
The Scottish government has made repeated calls for more money from the Treasury as Omicron numbers rise.
It had already said bars and restaurants would receive a £66m support package but hospitality bosses said this was not enough.
The extra funding follows discussions between the devolved nations and Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
The UK government said the money was on top of the £220m it had already provided from the Autumn Budget.

'More urgency'​

However, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to check if this was the case.
She tweeted: ": "Before we get spin on 'doubling', the £220m announced last week was NOT new or additional (it was actually £48m less than we had been expecting). Seeking confirmation if this new £220m is additional (tho if so £48m will just make up last w/k loss) & if it has to be repaid to the extent it is new/additional, @scotgov will make sure it goes in full to helping business and the overall Covid effort."
She further tweeted: "As infections soar and businesses suffer, we still need much more urgency in action/support from UK Gov - so that devolved gov hands not tied. To that end, it was disappointing and frustrating that neither the PM nor the Chancellor attended this evening's COBRA."

The Welsh government was allocated an extra £270m and the Northern Ireland Executive £150m. They both received the same amounts in the Autumn Budget.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: "Following discussions with the devolved administrations, we are now doubling the additional funding available.
"We will continue to listen to and work with the devolved administrations in the face of this serious health crisis to ensure we're getting the booster to people all over the UK and that people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are supported."

This will definitely annoy many English voters in many ways. In terms of what it means for England restrictions it could go either way: the devolved nations getting funding can allow them to get away with more without England having to be put into more restrictions as well, but at the same time this means louder calls from those in support of restrictions to follow the devolved nations' actions.

 

[duncanp]

The COVID Bedwetter Daily Mail is up to its usual tricks with a screaming headline about UK MAY NEED LOCKDOWN BEFORE DECEMBER 25TH and COVID INFECTIONS TOP 80,000 FOR THE FOURTH TIME SINCE START OF THE PANDEMIC

When you read the story, it says that "...Sajid Javid refused to rule out a lockdown before December 25th...", which is actually quite a different thing from saying that there will be, or that there is likely to be, a pre Christmas lockdown.

Except that Sajid Javid didn't actually say "..I refuse to rule out a lockdown before Christmas...".

What he actually said was "...There are no guarantees in this pandemic, I don't think. At this point we just have to keep everything under review..." and "..we do have to challenge data and underlying assumptions, I think that is appropriate, and take into account a broader set of facts..."

Which is actually quite encouraging, because it would imply that the government is prepared to challenge the doom laden predictions emanating from SAGE, and also take into account the wider economic, social and mental health implications of any new restrictions.

So although SAGE may demand a closure of indoor hospitality and a ban on household mixing, the actual level of restrictions may be less than that, such as indoor hospitality remaining open under the rules that existed between 17th May and 18th July this year, and strengthened guidance to reduce household mixing rather than an outright ban.

I also believe it is getting too late to announce a ban on household mixing for Christmas.

A lot of people have already travelled to the place they will be spending Christmas, if Euston station on Friday was anything to go by.

Others will have spent money on food for the people they are expecting, and are likely to stick two fingers up to any government order that they should not have any relatives round, especially after "Partygate".

 

[35B]

What implications are these? I asked our friend @Kez to provide some evidence to support the assertion that the unvaccinated pose more risk of asymptomatic transmission than the vaccinated. I’m yet to see any. If @John Luxton was advocating going out with symptoms and coughing over people I’d join you in telling him he’s a naughty boy, but he isn’t. His behaviour is perfectly reasonable.



We all accept the risk trade-offs, well those of us opposed to restrictions anyway. That’s the whole basis of our argument!



Whilst I shan’t accuse you of creating a straw man, nobody is refusing to acknowledge the risk, to themselves or others. Not everybody buys into the “if you’re not vaccinated you’re a danger to yourself and others” narrative however. If you have symptoms stay at home, it’s as simple as that.

Actually, reading some posts on here, I sense deep denial at work. Risk analysis requires analysis, not wilful ignoral.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The COVID Bedwetter Daily Mail is up to its usual tricks with a screaming headline about UK MAY NEED LOCKDOWN BEFORE DECEMBER 25TH and COVID INFECTIONS TOP 80,000 FOR THE FOURTH TIME SINCE START OF THE PANDEMIC

This number is total tests reported today not the day they were taken. Below shows the day the test was actually taken and the change from yesterday to today courtesy of https://twitter.com/lawrencegilder



What this is showing though is test processing is lagging several days behind again whereas it was largely 24hrs lag a few weeks ago. Also don't know if all laboratories work at weekends. On the face of it this looks promising but what we don't know is how many tests from each day remain to be processed. Also there is also a lag if you receive a positive LFT test then getting a PCR test to confirm. So currently this is becoming very backward looking data which is why the forecasters models are used by scientists to try and anticipate what this data will say with certainty in about five days time to inform the ministers now not when its potentially too late. What ive not seen is the govt commission some independent reviews of the robustness of the models and maybe Javid is pushing back to get that integrity check on them.