When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[AlterEgo]

Quite an incredible result. I thought it would be closer. Well done Boris, that’s quite the majority you lost in North Shropshire. And it wasn’t because your candidate had brown skin either.

 

[DarloRich]

Regarding the North Shropshire by-election result, there was a similar by-election upset in essentially the same constituency (then named Oswestry) in July1904. The Liberal party's success was temporary and was reversed at the next GE in early 1906, despite the Liberal landslide at that GE.

The Tories' selection of an Indian doctor/lawyer from Brum will not have gone down well in this deeply conservative (with a small c) backwater. The result of this by-election is similar to that at Orpington in 1962 (even down to the % vote shares compared to the previous GE result there in 1959), when the Tories also selected a candidate of non-British ethnicity (Peter Goldman) in a non-cosmopolitan locality.

This is a fairly silly statement. I offer Richmondshire in response. This is a "deeply conservative (with a small c) backwater." it is very rural, very farming and very Tory. They elected Rishsi Sunak with a massive 27k+ majority!

In the past they also elected Leon Brittain: The son of emigre Lithuanian jews.

I lived there for a long time. Of all the place is have lived that is the most" non-cosmopolitan" and most dyed in the wool Tory. They were happy with someone with a different skin tome to them. What I actually think happened is that people in Shropshire voted to boot out the Tories for being bent, for being pi$$ takers and for being led by an incompetent, waffling, lying, $hit badger. That or they put up a brown fella. One of the two.

I do agree that come the next election this seat may well swing back to the the Tories but it is a massive result for the lib dems and the Conservatives.

 

[21C101]

Actual result;
Con 31.59%
Lab 9.68%
LD 47.14%
Reform 3.75%
Grn 4.56%

Did the vote really change that radically between Labours 'internal poll' and the vote, or was the internal poll iffy to begin with?

The result reflects that voters felt safe to kick the government hard without letting Labour near power.

As does the disparity between the result and Labours internal polling (indicating that many voters fear Labour and the Left and lie that they are supporting them to avoid trouble/going in their "black book")

 

[DarloRich]

The result reflects that voters felt safe to kick the government hard without letting Labour near power.

They are not going to vote Labour in a safe, Tory, rural, farming seat. Not now, not ever. There is no story here.

 

[jon0844]

Ah, so it's not because we've got the most incompetent Tory government in history, but because they fielded a brown candidate. Okay...

Using your logic, your "deeply conservative" voters in North Shropshire wouldn't have voted for a woman either, would they?

It also ignores the fact that many people will vote for a party and not care who represents it.

 

[gg1]

As does the disparity between the result and Labours internal polling (indicating that many voters fear Labour and the Left and lie that they are supporting them to avoid trouble/going in their "black book")

First point yes, more specifically a fear of the hard left and Labour's process for leadership elections making a repeat of Corbyn a distinct possibility.

For the second point, I seriously doubt many people are that paranoid, and the ones who are would probably never vote Labour in a million years regardless of who leads them or what their policies are.

 

[LSWR Cavalier]

Not surprising really, there have been many such "surprising" results in by-elections (a particularly British way to occupy vacant seats? How is it done elsewhere?)

Hartlepool went tory, I can well imagine tory seats going to labour.

 

[MattRat]

I would like to think that at least some of the swing to the liberals (as opposed to some other parties) was partly due to their more critical stance regarding covid restrictions.

If Lib Dems stick to their guns on protecting freedoms, maybe we can finally have a true opposition again. It's not unprecedented for them to at least cause problems for the big 2.

 

[nw1]

Tory MP who pleaded for Saudi work reported to standards watchdog | Conservatives | The Guardian

I wonder what the chances of a by election in Shrewsbury are? If the Lib Dems win tonight, I would hope they would give Labour a free run in a hypothetical Shrewsbury by election.

That would be a real test for Labour and a better barometer than Bexley.

That individual should have resigned a long time ago.

Here's why:

Shrewsbury MP Daniel Kawczynski asks Polish government to block Brexit delay

Shrewsbury MP Daniel Kawczynski has been in touch with the Polish government, asking it to veto any attempts to delay Brexit beyond the end of next month.

www.shropshirestar.com

Kawczynski is an utter hypocrite. A Polish-born man who is making it more difficult for Polish people to live in the UK. I would argue that he is more corrupt than Paterson, in the sense that he has been consorting with overseas governments which could have caused a potential no-deal outcome. No other MP, Tory or otherwise, had taken such an extreme step.

I've been to Shrewsbury, it's a nice town, it's a shame it has to have such an awful MP.

 

[yorksrob]

If Lib Dems stick to their guns on protecting freedoms, maybe we can finally have a true opposition again. It's not unprecedented for them to at least cause problems for the big 2.

Agreed.

 

[nw1]

Not surprising really, there have been many such "surprising" results in by-elections (a particularly British way to occupy vacant seats? How is it done elsewhere?)

Hartlepool went tory, I can well imagine tory seats going to labour.

The fact that we live in a world where Hartlepool is Tory and North Shropshire isn't shows how strange modern politics is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2021 ==

This is a return to more normal poltics. What is more astonishing is that the tories actually won Old Bexley byelection.

The tories will depose Johnson in short order unless he gets his act together. Personally I don't think having a young family with newborns and toddlers is compatible with being able to focus on the PM job properly. In fact he has probably done well to avoid a nervous breakdown.

The problem for the opposition is that so long as the SNP is so dominant in Scotland, the opposition cannot govern except in coalition with them which tbe tories will milk at elections.

For now it looks to me like Truss will replace Mr Johnson before the next election.

Ah, Twitter Truss. She comes across rather like a Chief Propaganda Minister for a Warsaw Pact country in the Cold War.

She is one of the hard-right 'Britannia Unchained' lot, aka 'all British people are lazy work-shy good for nothing so and sos' (see also Patel and Raab). I doubt she would be a popular choice with the public - essentially a hard-right leader with little personality so not even pressing the buttons Johnson does with some people.

I would guess Sunak would be the least offensive option to the general public. Can't think of anyone else. Javid would have been another possibility but he's been too involved in this latest round of restrictions so perhaps not now.

 

[Class 466]

The fact that we live in a world where Hartlepool is Tory and North Shropshire isn't shows how strange modern politics is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2021 ==



Ah, Twitter Truss. She comes across rather like a Chief Propaganda Minister for a Warsaw Pact country in the Cold War.

She is one of the hard-right 'Britannia Unchained' lot, aka 'all British people are lazy work-shy good for nothing so and sos' (see also Patel and Raab). I doubt she would be a popular choice with the public - essentially a hard-right leader with little personality so not even pressing the buttons Johnson does with some people.

I would guess Sunak would be the least offensive option to the general public. Can't think of anyone else. Javid would have been another possibility but he's been too involved in this latest round of restrictions so perhaps not now.

Times like this I’m reminded and still can’t believe that Liz Truss used to be a Lib Dem. Then again so did Darren Grimes and the less said about him the better.

 

[ainsworth74]

She is one of the hard-right 'Britannia Unchained' lot, aka 'all British people are lazy work-shy good for nothing so and sos' (see also Patel and Raab). I doubt she would be a popular choice with the public - essentially a hard-right leader with little personality so not even pressing the buttons Johnson does with some people.

I would guess Sunak would be the least offensive option to the general public. Can't think of anyone else. Javid would have been another possibility but he's been too involved in this latest round of restrictions so perhaps not now.

Though, of course, the Tory leader is chosen firstly by the MPs and with the last two candidates standing going to a vote of the whole membership. And by all accounts Liz Truss is popular with the wider party membership so as long as enough of her fellow MPs back her so that she gets on the ballot paper to the membership she'd be my odds on pick to win such a contest.

 

[deltic]

Did the vote really change that radically between Labours 'internal poll' and the vote, or was the internal poll iffy to begin with?

No - Internal polls that are made public are pure propaganda and often based on returns from activitists polling areas where their support is based. I have produced leaflets saying our polling shows we are neck and neck with party Y which were true only because we had knocked on doors in areas where our supporters were. In reality we ended up with about 15% of the total vote!

 

[LOL The Irony]

No - Internal polls that are made public are pure propaganda and often based on returns from activitists polling areas where their support is based. I have produced leaflets saying our polling shows we are neck and neck with party Y which were true only because we had knocked on doors in areas where our supporters were. In reality we ended up with about 15% of the total vote!

^^^this^^^
If you ask someone buying a Dairy Milk if they prefer them over Mars Bars, they'll probably say yes. Which goes to show if you ask the right people the right question, you'll get the answer you want, not the actual answer.

 

[Gloster]

One small piece of trivia. One of the minor candidates, Yolande Kenward, has got herself into the record books: the smallest number of votes gained by a candidate at a by-election since 1918. One hopes she asked for a recount to check that she really did get three votes.

 

[jj1314]

I've been to Shrewsbury, it's a nice town, it's a shame it has to have such an awful MP.

Let's just say he rarely gets a welcome when he's out and about in town.

 

[37424]

First point yes, more specifically a fear of the hard left and Labour's process for leadership elections making a repeat of Corbyn a distinct possibility.

For the second point, I seriously doubt many people are that paranoid, and the ones who are would probably never vote Labour in a million years regardless of who leads them or what their policies are.

Really, I did vote Labour in the last By Election we had in my constituency after voting Tory because of Corbyn in 2019, however I would still be concerned about the influence of the left in any government formed by Starmer, and particularly Rayner who Starmer cannot get rid of as Deputy Leader and I wouldn't personally let her run a School Tuck Shop never mind be a part of Government.

As for Boris I hope he stays at least until we get near a General Election as any replacement is almost certainly going to be more right wing than Boris. Boris in a sense an oddity, except on Brexit I think he is centre ground in an increasingly right wing party.

 

[Typhoon]

This is a return to more normal poltics. What is more astonishing is that the tories actually won Old Bexley byelection.

They are two completely different seats - and situations.

Reasons locals gave for voting LibDem were loss of police station, insufficient ambulances , insufficient GP surgeries, loss of village bus service (no service to get post 16s to college). Doubtless if I had the time, I would find other services that have been cut back, such as banking. These people are feeling ignored not 'levelled-up'. One also mentioned that the LibDems had actually called on her, something they are good at. Old Bexley and Sidcup - firstly, with some justification, Conservatives can blame the London Mayor for the loss of some of its services, but even if there are no services in the constituency, they will be in neighbouring Bexleyheath, Dartford, Bromley, all within easy reach.

Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election was as the result of the death of a popular MP, the Tory candidate played on the sympathy vote and got the endorsement of the Brokenshire family; North Shropshire was as the result of the sitting MP resigning after being found to have broken Parliamentary rules and not taking the punishment for it. He may have been popular, but there is a fair chance his popularity will have waned as a result of these actions.

Old Bexley and Sidcup chose a local councillor, North Shropshire chose an outsider with seemingly little knowledge of the area or empathy with the local employment base.

It going for the Red Wall constituencies, the Conservatives are at risk of losing the Blue Field constituencies, there are plenty of largely rural constituencies just like North Shropshire that are being ignored. Just recently there was a Cumbria MP for a rural constituency who droned on about car ownership being a remnant of the twentieth century as we go green and people will get about in shared ownership vehicles, on bikes or scooters. Her seat is ripe for the taking https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...g-transport-minister-Trudy-Harrison-says.html

If you ask someone buying a Dairy Milk if they prefer them over Mars Bars, they'll probably say yes. Which goes to show if you ask the right people the right question, you'll get the answer you want, not the actual answer.

I would go further. I reckon if you asked someone if they prefer Dairy Milk to a Mars Bar, they will tend to agree; if, instead, you asked them whether they prefer a Mars Bar to Dairy Milk they will also tend to agree. A lot of the time people just want to get pollsters/ canvassers off their back. Agree so they go away. There is no come back for fibbing.

 

[Horizon22]

Actual result;
Con 31.59%
Lab 9.68%
LD 47.14%
Reform 3.75%
Grn 4.56%

Did the vote really change that radically between Labours 'internal poll' and the vote, or was the internal poll iffy to begin with?

Labour were just making it up - internal LD polling is normally very accurate. They couldn't stand not being the challengers.

 

[21C101]

The fact that we live in a world where Hartlepool is Tory and North Shropshire isn't shows how strange modern politics is.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Dec 2021 ==



She is one of the hard-right 'Britannia Unchained' lot,

Truss is basically an Orange Book liberal, as was Margaret Thatcher.

People forget that the modern Tory (Conservative and Liberal Unionist) party is essentially the Liberal Party (after absorbing the Liberal Unionists before World War 1 and the National Liberals after World War 1.

The actual Liberal Party post 1920s was the rump of Radicals and the "real" Tories are a moggite rump in the Tory Party.

The coalition near destroyed the Lib Dems in the 2015 election, because the Orange Book Libdems leading the party were philosophically far closer to the Tories than the maiority of Lib Dem Voters (Radicals, Social Democrats and Labour supporters in constituencies that had no chance who used the Libdems as an anti tory proxy vote).

 

[brad465]

Labour were just making it up - internal LD polling is normally very accurate. They couldn't stand not being the challengers.

The local Labour party went rogue in this election; fortunately enough of the local electorate got the tactical vote message. Hopefully they and other local parties might get the message now that the common enemy is the Tories, until they're gone sacrifices will have to be made in places. If they don't learn this we have to hope other voters across the country do realise this.

 

[AM9]

The local Labour party went rogue in this election; fortunately enough of the local electorate got the tactical vote message. Hopefully they and other local parties might get the message now that the common enemy is the Tories, until they're gone sacrifices will have to be made in places. If they don't learn this we have to hope other voters across the country do realise this.

That was what happened in St Albans at the 2019 GE. The local Conservative MP not only had a lacklustre few terms in the City, but was also a leaver. St Albans was definitely not a constituency with a high leaver electorate and there were overtures from the LDs, as the other preferred party for St Albans, for for Labour to give them support. Instead there was a three-cornered fight but fortunately the LD candidate Daisy Cooper won throuigh.

 

[davetheguard]

Hartlepool went tory, I can well imagine tory seats going to labour.

Already happened, hasn't it? Canterbury.

 

[Cloud Strife]

That individual should have resigned a long time ago.

Here's why:

Shrewsbury MP Daniel Kawczynski asks Polish government to block Brexit delay

Shrewsbury MP Daniel Kawczynski has been in touch with the Polish government, asking it to veto any attempts to delay Brexit beyond the end of next month.

www.shropshirestar.com

Kawczynski is an utter hypocrite. A Polish-born man who is making it more difficult for Polish people to live in the UK. I would argue that he is more corrupt than Paterson, in the sense that he has been consorting with overseas governments which could have caused a potential no-deal outcome. No other MP, Tory or otherwise, had taken such an extreme step.

I've been to Shrewsbury, it's a nice town, it's a shame it has to have such an awful MP.

Kawczyński is an absolute cretin, and that's being polite. He occasionally shows up in the Polish media making idiotic statements, and his flirtation with people like Salvini and Orban is well documented. That's before you mention the Saudi links and all the other dubious aspects of his character.

The only thing: please keep him. I'm afraid that if he loses his seat in the UK Parliament, he'll come to Poland and bother us instead!

About the Tories more specifically: I think it's hard to read much into this result. It shows that the Lib Dems can win rural constituencies, but is it enough if the Tories have perfected their message to poorer urban areas?

 

[LSWR Cavalier]

Kawczynski moved to the UK aged six, is his Polish a bit rusty?

I am a Shrewsbury fan too, perhaps the people lucky enough to live there shall tell him to go at the next opportunity.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Kawczynski moved to the UK aged six, is his Polish a bit rusty?

Unfortunately, it's perfectly fine Perhaps more interestingly, he changes his tone completely in the media here. For instance, a couple of years ago, he was promoting the idea that Polish people are "ideal" immigrants to the UK.

He's also connected to a rather nasty Polish-born clown who has been pushing a very right wing agenda among Poles in the UK, who is frqeuently posioning them with the idea that British people loathe them and don't appreciate them.

The only good thing is that Kawczyński is too busy being corrupt to bother much with Poland.

 

[yorkie]

I would like to think that at least some of the swing to the liberals (as opposed to some other parties) was partly due to their more critical stance regarding covid restrictions.

Yes I was delighted to see both the Conservatives and in particular the traitorous Labour party get trounced in this by-election.

The Liberal Democrats really should revise their stance on certain issues in my opinion but they do not seem to have been as bad as Labour who have been absolutely desperate to lock us all down and of course they aren't the Conservatives who implemented many of the authoritarian measures demanded by Labour.

 

[MattRat]

Unfortunately, it's perfectly fine Perhaps more interestingly, he changes his tone completely in the media here. For instance, a couple of years ago, he was promoting the idea that Polish people are "ideal" immigrants to the UK.

He's also connected to a rather nasty Polish-born clown who has been pushing a very right wing agenda among Poles in the UK, who is frqeuently posioning them with the idea that British people loathe them and don't appreciate them.

The only good thing is that Kawczyński is too busy being corrupt to bother much with Poland.

That doesn't sound right wing. That sounds like making Poles play the victim. Don't know the reason for that, of course, but that's how it comes across.

Yes I was delighted to see both the Conservatives and in particular the traitorous Labour party get trounced in this by-election.

The Liberal Democrats really should revise their stance on certain issues in my opinion but they do not seem to have been as bad as Labour who have been absolutely desperate to lock us all down and of course they aren't the Conservatives who implemented many of the authoritarian measures demanded by Labour.

I think they are starting to remember what helped them gain so many seats in 2010, which is being the third option, and distancing themselves from both Labour and Conservatives. Of course it might all go down hill again when they end up having to choose which coalition they want to end up in, as both Labour and Conservatives will throw them under the bus at the first opportunity, but, I'd rather take another Lib Dem coalition than either pure Labour or Conservative right now.

 

[Purple Orange]

As spectacular a defeat this is for the Tories, I don’t see it resulting in a wholesale change in 2024. The red wall seats that fell to the Tories will likely change hands again, with the Tory party having demonstrated that they’ll have done nothing for them. Lib Dems will make gains n 2024 too, but all of this together points more towards a hung parliament. The difference between now and 2010 is that nobody will go in to coalition with the Tories at all.