I tried to work out TPE rough fleet needs based on the latest timetable proposals, MRTF and the Scarborough / Hull swap. I ended up with excess 185s to the order of 15 or so, I.e. the amount planned to be released. Diversions for the TPE upgrade will increase turn length and therefore fleet needs but i do find it odd that at a time when the industry is being told to cut costs TPE's fleet costs will balloon.
Oh well great news for TPE passengers!
Not sure where you are getting those figures from? Currently the fleet is effectively fully deployed and yet there are still some diagrams which are singles.
The list below shows the number of circuits for the 185-operated service groups that will be running in December 22:
- MAN-HUD - 2 circuits
- HUD-LDS - 2 circuits
- MIA-RCC - 7 circuits
- MAN-SCA - 5 circuits
- LIV-HUL - 6 circuits
- LIV-CLE - 8 circuits
Now whilst the first 2 services will always be single units due to platforming constraints, all the rest ought to be doubles. If so, you would need 56 units out in service each day. There are only 51 units in the fleet, with 4 sets on maintenance on weekdays and 6 on weekends.
That leaves you 11 units short on weekends and 9 short on weekdays. And that's without allowing for any spares, driver training units or anything like that - which is unrealistic.
Now obviously the Mk5s will be covering for quite a few of those - there are already 4 in service and in due course that "should" rise to 11 out of 13 in service each day. Each Mk5 is roughly equivalent to a double 185 in terms of seating capacity, so that's between 8 and 22 185s freed up.
There is also the matter of the 802s, because even with their newfound deployment on the WCML, there will still be some spare sets - the 802 service groups will not be returning to what they were pre-Covid. That would perhaps enable them to cover one or two circuits, so another 2-4 185s freed up.
But, even taking all the above into account, 15 sets coming off lease would mean having a lot of diagrams being reduced to singles (as in the dark days of the past). The penny has - finally - dropped with the DfT.