Which tends to show that the public in general are not worried about Covid. So greater restrictions will be a tough sell.
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Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it
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This is the worst type of scaremongering
news.sky.com
So what? Who knows what the trends will do. The vaccines are 75% effective at preventing symptomatic disease, and way more effective at keeping people of hospital. The heat map for infections is stark. Very little in the over 60s, most in school age kids who won't get ill. Although Sky have now changed the headline where their not-so-bright hack claimed it would be 1 million cases a day!
COVID-19: Two jabs offer little protection against Omicron - but booster makes vaccine at least 70% effective
The UK has recorded 448 new Omicron cases in the latest 24-hour period - taking the total across the country to 1,265.
So what? Who knows what the trends will do. The vaccines are 75% effective at preventing symptomatic disease, and way more effective at keeping people of hospital. The heat map for infections is stark. Very little in the over 60s, most in school age kids who won't get ill. Although Sky have now changed the headline where their not-so-bright hack claimed it would be 1 million cases a day!
Has that not always been the case?
bramling
Veteran Member
Absolutely. But some people seem to feel they can demand it unilaterally.
I think the fact that Labour are demanding heavier restrictions keeps his head above water.
No. The WFH guidance has always generally been on a company by company basis rather than an individual manager basis.
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Peterthegreat
Established Member
For the first time I am very much opposed to additional restrictions.
It was quite clear at lockdown no. 1 that cases, hospitalisations and deaths were increasing quite rapidly and that things could get very nasty fairly soon. If anything I believe it was around one week too late but as the virus was new none of us knew exactly what would happen. Similarly it was obvious last Christmas that things were going the wrong way before restrictions were imposed.
However the success rate of vaccines in bringing down serious illness should have made it a completely new ball game.
Unfortunately along comes Omicron and panic breaks out. The media is having a field day with scaremongering. The only thing being reported is the infection rate. Of course we will have a million cases IF the rate is doubling every two or three days, of course hospitals will be overflowing IF the rate doubles AND it is at least as severe.
But it seems to be only the current infection rate that is being considered.
No account seems to be taken that omicron is replacing Delta or that so far, at least, it doesn't seem to be anywhere near as severe.
By all means keep a close watch and act if necessary but so far only a part of the science is being followed.
It was quite clear at lockdown no. 1 that cases, hospitalisations and deaths were increasing quite rapidly and that things could get very nasty fairly soon. If anything I believe it was around one week too late but as the virus was new none of us knew exactly what would happen. Similarly it was obvious last Christmas that things were going the wrong way before restrictions were imposed.
However the success rate of vaccines in bringing down serious illness should have made it a completely new ball game.
Unfortunately along comes Omicron and panic breaks out. The media is having a field day with scaremongering. The only thing being reported is the infection rate. Of course we will have a million cases IF the rate is doubling every two or three days, of course hospitals will be overflowing IF the rate doubles AND it is at least as severe.
But it seems to be only the current infection rate that is being considered.
No account seems to be taken that omicron is replacing Delta or that so far, at least, it doesn't seem to be anywhere near as severe.
By all means keep a close watch and act if necessary but so far only a part of the science is being followed.
brad465
Veteran Member
Yes bringing restrictions in, or at least creating a perception they'll be brought in, has the effect of making people get socials/events out of the way as soon as they can, leading to even more gatherings in a shorter space of time, which of course increases potential transmission even more. I hope nothing more is brought in before Christmas, but even if there are more to come, I would expect whatever is experienced with regards to cases and subsequent illness outcomes at Christmas to already be set in stone.
Kite159
Veteran Member
Some elements of the media (Sky etc) would love another lockdown, solely because people will stay home and watch the various shows on TV (and for the media who have adverts a potential increase of advertising revenue).
DustyBin
Established Member
Some sources are claiming that omicron/moronic/omni-con (delete as you see fit!) may have developed one of it's mutations by acquiring a small amount of genetic material from another coronavirus, most likely that which causes the common cold. Could this potentially lead to an increase in cross-reactive immunity?
It doesn't start until Monday.
Did you not think those people were having Fridays off?
Drogba11CFC
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I think that any "nudge" from SAGE should be met with a very hard elbow to their ribs, repeatedly, until they get the message and back off.
Baxenden Bank
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They should have cross-stiched it. Must be a pattern out there to follow.
It's not the ribs that I have in mind, but somewhere else a little lower down, that would give them a bit more cause to think again.
Re: work from home, yet still have your christmas party.
This is a calculation to based on several things for example;
1. They don't have to financially support hospitality via furlough / VAT reductions etc
2. People can't complain about parties being cancelled two years in a row amongst the current media stories
Meanwhile some people will flock to pubs (while they still can) and forget about media stories
Others who work at home won't bother going out due to fear / distances etc
Some companies actually made it compulsory to work at home in March 2020 and kept it in place long enough that people just haven't gone back in since. This means that the work from home advice will have less of an effect than it did in March 2020.
What is more worrying is the dead cat theory - throw in more restrictions when the govt is under pressure, followed by the birth of the PM's daughter, even the alpaca Geronimo was in the news today.
There is an alternative theory that the dead cat is actually there to disguise the first step to vaccine passports - Martin Niemoller's poem could be updated to:
first they came for the media
then they came for the unvax
then the smoker (see New Zealand)
then the obese
then they came for me - and there was noone left to speak out for me
Voluntary vaccines have achieved high vaccination rates though contradictions between AZ, Moderna and Pfizer re the booster are concerning. Pfizer literally saying that 2 vaccines are not enough, but the booster is. Then in 100 days time the 3rd vaccine is not enough, now you need the omicron variant, and so on. For a sector where overuse of antibiotics has created issues, could we see the same with covid?
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
What seems to go missing in the "scientific modelling" is;
1. School holidays act as firebreak - for example hospital admissions dropped in both July and around October half term
2. Pre covid, January tends to be a quieter month as people have less money to spend in hospitality
3. Feedback from the 100K cases per day in August doesn't appear to get factored in
This is a calculation to based on several things for example;
1. They don't have to financially support hospitality via furlough / VAT reductions etc
2. People can't complain about parties being cancelled two years in a row amongst the current media stories
Meanwhile some people will flock to pubs (while they still can) and forget about media stories
Others who work at home won't bother going out due to fear / distances etc
Some companies actually made it compulsory to work at home in March 2020 and kept it in place long enough that people just haven't gone back in since. This means that the work from home advice will have less of an effect than it did in March 2020.
What is more worrying is the dead cat theory - throw in more restrictions when the govt is under pressure, followed by the birth of the PM's daughter, even the alpaca Geronimo was in the news today.
There is an alternative theory that the dead cat is actually there to disguise the first step to vaccine passports - Martin Niemoller's poem could be updated to:
first they came for the media
then they came for the unvax
then the smoker (see New Zealand)
then the obese
then they came for me - and there was noone left to speak out for me
Voluntary vaccines have achieved high vaccination rates though contradictions between AZ, Moderna and Pfizer re the booster are concerning. Pfizer literally saying that 2 vaccines are not enough, but the booster is. Then in 100 days time the 3rd vaccine is not enough, now you need the omicron variant, and so on. For a sector where overuse of antibiotics has created issues, could we see the same with covid?
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
What seems to go missing in the "scientific modelling" is;
1. School holidays act as firebreak - for example hospital admissions dropped in both July and around October half term
2. Pre covid, January tends to be a quieter month as people have less money to spend in hospitality
3. Feedback from the 100K cases per day in August doesn't appear to get factored in
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eastdyke
Established Member
And today's reported number is:
Friday: 9250
Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa
This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.
www.covid19sa.org
Yesterday I wrongly ascribed Mr to Whitty, today he is simply a bad prophet, a very bad prophet .....
Grauniad working themselves into a lather wanting a full lockdown by Saturday week or we are all doomed, I tell ye, doomed.
I'm going to be highly controversial and say that, at the root of this is secularism and atheism, both of which have become widespread in the West in the years of unprecented prosperity and suppression of death by infectious disease since World War 2.
As a result this life is now seen as everything, we societally cannot cope with unexpected death or even misfortune (which must always be someone elses fault). This is reflected in ever increasng health and safety measures (which until Covid turned up, impacted mostly on the Safety side).
I remember a public figure who "cured" himself of type 2 diabetes quite recently by ignoring the then conventional advice and losing an extreme amount of weight fast, recounting autobiographically how distressing and hard it was for him to go against Public Health England's guidance. This completes the cycle. People now have faith in scientists and secular institution and feel they have sinned if they disregard their strictures.
In The Machine Stops by E.M.Forster which was inflicted on me at School, people were locked down permanently into individual cells, with The Machine providing food and communication and after a geceration or two incapable of moving from the chair at their desk. Religion was eliminated as supersition and banned. Eventually though, one religion was allowed. Worship of The Machine. This happened just as it started to decay and eventually pack up.
Little did I reaslise in the late 1970s what a prophetic work this Victorian Gentlemans seemingly ridiculous book was.
www.theguardian.com
I'm going to be highly controversial and say that, at the root of this is secularism and atheism, both of which have become widespread in the West in the years of unprecented prosperity and suppression of death by infectious disease since World War 2.
As a result this life is now seen as everything, we societally cannot cope with unexpected death or even misfortune (which must always be someone elses fault). This is reflected in ever increasng health and safety measures (which until Covid turned up, impacted mostly on the Safety side).
I remember a public figure who "cured" himself of type 2 diabetes quite recently by ignoring the then conventional advice and losing an extreme amount of weight fast, recounting autobiographically how distressing and hard it was for him to go against Public Health England's guidance. This completes the cycle. People now have faith in scientists and secular institution and feel they have sinned if they disregard their strictures.
In The Machine Stops by E.M.Forster which was inflicted on me at School, people were locked down permanently into individual cells, with The Machine providing food and communication and after a geceration or two incapable of moving from the chair at their desk. Religion was eliminated as supersition and banned. Eventually though, one religion was allowed. Worship of The Machine. This happened just as it started to decay and eventually pack up.
Little did I reaslise in the late 1970s what a prophetic work this Victorian Gentlemans seemingly ridiculous book was.
Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS
www.theguardian.com
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s
Excellent post. I think your second and third paragraphs in particular hit the nail on the head. I’ll give The Machine Stops a look.
A great deal of Orwell’s 1984 has also proven eerily prophetic: “double think” (the ability to simultaneously believe in contradictory viewpoints), an idle, supine population who are brainwashed by the Ministry of Truth via their “telescreens”, which spy on them in their own homes (Amazon Alexa anyone?). I suppose in the end it accurately describes the state of humanity as a whole, hence why it remains applicable so many years after it was written.
Grauniad working themselves into a lather wanting a full lockdown by Saturday week or we are all doomed, I tell ye, doomed.
I'm going to be highly controversial and say that, at the root of this is secularism and atheism, both of which have become widespread in the West in the years of unprecented prosperity and suppression of death by infectious disease since World War 2.
As a result this life is now seen as everything, we societally cannot cope with unexpected death or even misfortune (which must always be someone elses fault). This is reflected in ever increasng health and safety measures (which until Covid turned up, impacted mostly on the Safety side).
I remember a public figure who "cured" himself of type 2 diabetes quite recently by ignoring the then conventional advice and losing an extreme amount of weight fast, recounting autobiographically how distressing and hard it was for him to go against Public Health England's guidance. This completes the cycle. People now have faith in scientists and secular institution and feel they have sinned if they disregard their strictures.
In The Machine Stops by E.M.Forster which was inflicted on me at School, people were locked down permanently into individual cells, with The Machine providing food and communication and after a geceration or two incapable of moving from the chair at their desk. Religion was eliminated as supersition and banned. Eventually though, one religion was allowed. Worship of The Machine. This happened just as it started to decay and eventually pack up.
Little did I reaslise in the late 1970s what a prophetic work this Victorian Gentlemans seemingly ridiculous book was.
Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS
Excellent post. I think your second and third paragraphs in particular hit the nail on the head. I’ll give The Machine Stops a look.
A great deal of Orwell’s 1984 has also proven eerily prophetic: “double think” (the ability to simultaneously believe in contradictory viewpoints), an idle, supine population who are brainwashed by the Ministry of Truth via their “telescreens”, which spy on them in their own homes (Amazon Alexa anyone?). I suppose in the end it accurately describes the state of humanity as a whole, hence why it remains applicable so many years after it was written.
bussnapperwm
Established Member
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- 1,527
To be fair, I don't care if we have a full lockdown as I have happily been working from home in my main job since March last year and I've put in for permanent home working. As long as I can get my Greggs delivered and my online shop selling stuff, I'm happy!
Increasingly clear from that article what the line taken by the government is going to be. Even though 'Omicron' is much less severe it is so much more transmissable that - yes, you guessed it - hospital admissions will 'overwhelm the NHS'. So we have to have very harsh restrictions, maybe even lockdown, until we've got a new vaccine and rolled that one out.
And these *new* vaccines will be the 'route to freedom', honest, and of course we won't try to pull the same trick over and over again and again for the rest of eternity, honest.
I'm sure we can all see the problems with that story by now, but it appears that this is what they're going to try to sell us.
(This may be a good time for people to read up on 'original antigenic sin'. A good introduction can be found here - https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/more-on-original-antigenic-sin-and )
I entirely agree that this appears to be a very major issue with our society as a whole, and the current 'crisis' has brought it into very sharp focus.
We don't appear able to cope with the idea that 'this is all there is', and equally we can't cope with the concept that sometimes 'bad things just happen'. One of the very first posts I made here on Covid, back in May 2020, was partly about that.
There is no doubt that you can interpret the Covid mania as religious fervour - there are now a whole set of prophets, morals, rules, icons, sacred objects, rituals, and sins. And indeed heretics, ie. those who question or try to bring actual facts to the table.
I saw a recommendation to read this on a 'lockdown sceptic' place last year (probably Toby Young's, not much else was around at that point), and having done so I totally agree - very prescient indeed.
And bollocks to those who won't have a job after such a lockdown, kids who will have their education further decimated and for those whose mental health is so far gone that this would be the final straw. But you're okay though, happy days!
Well so long as you’re alright, Jack!
Socialising and spending time with other human beings might not a big part of your life, but rest assured it is very important to others. And absolutely crucial for their mental health.
bramling
Veteran Member
Yes it is ignorant in extremis to think that a lockdown won’t affect *all* of us. No one, by now, can surely have failed to notice consequences like rising prices, tax rises, failed businesses, increasing mental health issues, and all manner of other things, and no doubt plenty more to come.
philosopher
Established Member
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- 1,513
If there is a lockdown implemented before Christmas, I do think it will be a pivotal moment in the pandemic, certainly in the UK and perhaps elsewhere. This would be in social or political rather than epidemiological terms.
The one thing even Orwell didn't anticipate is that we would happily enslave ourselves to the spying apparatus, and indeed pay good money to do so, often rather a lot of it. I think he assumed we'd be *forced* to have the telescreens. But rather we willingly put this apparatus in our homes, and carry other such tracking/spying devices around with us wherever we go. It's really quite astonishing.
And, if we're mentioning 1984, we're pretty much at this stage now
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Don't question, don't look at evidence, even the extremely obvious right in front of you. Just do what we tell you. It's for your own good.
Very good point. I suppose the premise of the book was a communist style command economy/dictatorship where you would be issued with what you needed. How ironic we’ve managed to live up to his “vision”, despite living under the relative freedoms of a mixed/capitalist system. It’s enough to make you weep!
Indeed.
Grauniad working themselves into a lather wanting a full lockdown by Saturday week or we are all doomed, I tell ye, doomed.
I'm going to be highly controversial and say that, at the root of this is secularism and atheism, both of which have become widespread in the West in the years of unprecented prosperity and suppression of death by infectious disease since World War 2.
As a result this life is now seen as everything, we societally cannot cope with unexpected death or even misfortune (which must always be someone elses fault). This is reflected in ever increasng health and safety measures (which until Covid turned up, impacted mostly on the Safety side).
I remember a public figure who "cured" himself of type 2 diabetes quite recently by ignoring the then conventional advice and losing an extreme amount of weight fast, recounting autobiographically how distressing and hard it was for him to go against Public Health England's guidance. This completes the cycle. People now have faith in scientists and secular institution and feel they have sinned if they disregard their strictures.
In The Machine Stops by E.M.Forster which was inflicted on me at School, people were locked down permanently into individual cells, with The Machine providing food and communication and after a geceration or two incapable of moving from the chair at their desk. Religion was eliminated as supersition and banned. Eventually though, one religion was allowed. Worship of The Machine. This happened just as it started to decay and eventually pack up.
Little did I reaslise in the late 1970s what a prophetic work this Victorian Gentlemans seemingly ridiculous book was.
Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals
Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS
interesting post;
They did close churches and places of worship in lockdown 1 assuming that people could worship online although I think this was slightly less strict in lockdowns 2 and 3.
Re EM Forster he was probably referring to the Victorian / Edwardian mills, etc, and projected it forwards - the work at home moving numbers around spreadsheets etc reflects this as people try to get rich in stocks / crypto etc
Is this a serious post?
I would have assumed it was satirical, but based on your previous posts...
If it is serious, then I would ask you to please think about people who could lose their jobs and livelihoods, people with anxieties, people with autism, young people, lonely people and many more, who would suffer.
Lockdowns just delay the inevitable and cause immense harms.
brad465
Veteran Member
In what context/way would it be pivotal do you think? Would it be people finally realising something is up with our approach, and/or pivotal in the sense that this is the future for all eternity?
bramling
Veteran Member
The question I guess is whether it would finally be enough to tip the British population over the edge.
Added on top of all the Johnson antics, it could well be possible.
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