Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Towers]

Since I don't lurk around dark corners of the internet, could you explain to me what possible interest 'Boris & Co' could have in 'jab(bing) you' and why he should decree that it be done, to what seemingly to your mind, is unnecessarily

... or are you suggesting that he is a corrupt politician taking backhanders from Pfizer and all the other big pharma companies involved in for-profit vaccine manufacture.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==

No. I'm suggesting that he is in panic mode, making up his 'policy' on this as he goes along, stuck between the advice from all manner of people and organisations, his desperate need to distract attention from the utter shambles of a government that he presides over, and the worry of the half-dead NHS finally falling over.

Informed, measured policy this is not.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==




Various news outlets now reporting Scotland is being "strongly urged" to cancel Christmas parties. Nice.

Actually I tell a lie, not "cancel" - just "defer". You know, until just after Christmas, when all the restrictions will be lifted of course. Or something

 

[DustyBin]

But didn't the WHO not too long ago ask developed nations to help supply poorer nations rather than concentrate on widespread boosters for their own citizens? But that notwithstanding, additional pressures for 3rd and even 4th boosters is possibly going to make it harder for these nations to obtain 1st and 2nd jabs. And if the infrastructure isn't there, we should be helping there too.

I’ve raised this before but how much demand actually is there from these nations? I remember talking to a friend of a friend last year who lives in Kenya and he said something along the lines of “wait until you have a real pandemic”. This fits exactly with what I keep reading from Africa-based members on a couple of other forums I frequent; they just don’t care about covid. Looking at the data from the likes of Botswana and Ethiopia for example I’m not surprised as they’ve seen very few covid deaths. The criticism often levelled at them is that they aren’t testing enough and aren’t recording covid deaths accurately. The latter wouldn’t surprise me but in regard to the former maybe it’s actually us who are getting it wrong?

None of this negates the fact that the West have put themselves first, not once (which was understandable) but now twice as we roll out arguably pointless boosters. I think it’s important to point out though that some parts of the world may not thank us for offering them something they don’t actually feel they need.

 

[21C101]

No. I'm suggesting that he is in panic mode, making up his 'policy' on this as he goes along, stuck between the advice from all manner of people and organisations, his desperate need to distract attention from the utter shambles of a government that he presides over, and the worry of the half-dead NHS finally falling over.

Informed, measured policy this is not.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==




Various news outlets now reporting Scotland is being "strongly urged" to cancel Christmas parties. Nice.

Actually I tell a lie, not "cancel" - just "defer". You know, until just after Christmas, when all the restrictions will be lifted of course. Or something

The tories know that whatever Covid or profligate spending measures they impose, Sturgeon will trump it and Starmer will earnestly condemn the Tories for not doing enough.

Come the election there will be a remake of this starring Starmer and Sturgeon, and basically the Tories can't lose:

 

[johnnychips]

Any conspiracy theorists on here? My mate thinks that there is so much pressure to raise the interest rates, but the global economy can’t handle, it or there is some stock exchange crash likely, these measures will slow the economy down, and Omicron will provide an excuse for not raising them. I am not sure of all the details, but usually when I was calling him an idiot (no, they won’t introduce masks, they wouldn’t think of introducing vaccine passports, we’ll learn to live with it) he has unfortunately been proved right. As you can see I’m not an economist.

 

[Eyersey468]

Any conspiracy theorists on here? My mate thinks that there is so much pressure to raise the interest rates, but the global economy can’t handle, it or there is some stock exchange crash likely, these measures will slow the economy down, and Omicron will provide an excuse for not raising them. I am not sure of all the details, but usually when I was calling him an idiot (no, they won’t introduce masks, we’ll learn to live with it) he has unfortunately been proved right. As you can see I’m not an economist.

Possible but I am not an economist either so can't say.

 

[21C101]

Any conspiracy theorists on here? My mate thinks that there is so much pressure to raise the interest rates, but the global economy can’t handle, it or there is some stock exchange crash likely, these measures will slow the economy down, and Omicron will provide an excuse for not raising them. I am not sure of all the details, but usually when I was calling him an idiot (no, they won’t introduce masks, we’ll learn to live with it) he has unfortunately been proved right. As you can see I’m not an economist.

The authorities seem to be doing their best to prove every nutter going right and have them saying "I told you so"

Its tempting to believe such conspiracy theories at a time like this, but to pull that off you need a *lot* of very clever people who all know how to keep their mouths shut, not the leak prone f***wits infesting the upper echelons we have.

What worries me is that Russia and China and their hangers on are watching this imbecilty and will soon judge we are weak enough for them to get away with a simultaneous invasion of Ukraine and Taiwan etc (including possibly Iran attacking Saudi and North Korea invading the South). Safety in numbers basically.

In terms of conspiracies involving Boris, I suspect he rushed through all these restrictions without waiting for decent evidence on omnicrons deadliness or otherwise to get the announcement out of the way before his wife went into Labour.

 

[johnnychips]

^ I agree with you both, but unfortunately my mate’s been proved right three times (=3 bottles of red wine I owed him).

Mind you, he seriously thought Brian Rose could be mayor of London, so there’s hope…

Edit: @21C101 said ‘before his wife went into Labour’

Now that would be interesting!

 

[kristiang85]

I’ve raised this before but how much demand actually is there from these nations? I remember talking to a friend of a friend last year who lives in Kenya and he said something along the lines of “wait until you have a real pandemic”. This fits exactly with what I keep reading from Africa-based members on a couple of other forums I frequent; they just don’t care about covid. Looking at the data from the likes of Botswana and Ethiopia for example I’m not surprised as they’ve seen very few covid deaths. The criticism often levelled at them is that they aren’t testing enough and aren’t recording covid deaths accurately. The latter wouldn’t surprise me but in regard to the former maybe it’s actually us who are getting it wrong?

None of this negates the fact that the West have put themselves first, not once (which was understandable) but now twice as we roll out arguably pointless boosters. I think it’s important to point out though that some parts of the world may not thank us for offering them something they don’t actually feel they need.

Indeed. If there was an outbreak of an ebola like disease here then we wouldn't need these restrictions - people would hide away automatically without any coercion!

I was in Iraq in October for two weeks and they laughed on the rare occasion when I asked if I needed to wear a mask or tried to social distance; they had many more things to worry about. This is very much a disease and emergency of the west, driven by the media and social media .

 

[bramling]

Anyone would think that the "pot" for furlough was empty, and they simply didn't have the fortitude to go for a full lockdown.

Plan C will no doubt come some time around 22nd December just in time for Christmas, then plan D (the full “Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives”) in the first few days of January…

Its tempting to believe such conspiracy theories at a time like this, but to pull that off you need a *lot* of very clever people who all know how to keep their mouths shut, not the leak prone f***wits infesting the upper echelons we have.

What worries me is that Russia and China and their hangers on are watching this imbecilty and will soon judge we are weak enough for them to get away with a simultaneous invasion of Ukraine and Taiwan etc (including possibly Iran attacking Saudi and North Korea invading the South). Safety in numbers basically.

The latter point is certainly something of concern. What with our buffoon government, the rest of Europe too busy locking up their citizens, and not the most dynamic US president, and it presents quite an opportunity for any regime who feels like doing something.

 

[brad465]

Any conspiracy theorists on here? My mate thinks that there is so much pressure to raise the interest rates, but the global economy can’t handle, it or there is some stock exchange crash likely, these measures will slow the economy down, and Omicron will provide an excuse for not raising them. I am not sure of all the details, but usually when I was calling him an idiot (no, they won’t introduce masks, they wouldn’t think of introducing vaccine passports, we’ll learn to live with it) he has unfortunately been proved right. As you can see I’m not an economist.

While Western Central Banks won't have helped hype up Omicron, I think it's a safe bet their respective chairs, including Andrew Bailey for the Bank of England, were among the very few who slept like a log while everyone else was panicking. The economy is definitely built on a house of cards that our covid response has done nothing but build even higher.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Dec 2021 ==

Indeed. If there was an outbreak of an ebola like disease here then we wouldn't need these restrictions - people would hide away automatically without any coercion!

I was in Iraq in October for two weeks and they laughed on the rare occasion when I asked if I needed to wear a mask or tried to social distance; they had many more things to worry about. This is very much a disease and emergency of the west, driven by the media and social media .

It's possible that in the west one of the main issues is an older and/or more obese population compared to developing countries is driving more negative covid outcomes, but places like Iraq don't have this problem. As I highlighted further up, someone pointed out that covid has exposed the problems of an ageing population and our efforts to try and keep old and frail people alive for as long as possible, without thinking of the consequences of that. This is of course only going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[21C101]

It's possible that in the west one of the main issues is an older and/or more obese population compared to developing countries is driving more negative covid outcomes, but places like Iraq don't have this problem. As I highlighted further up, someone pointed out that covid has exposed the problems of an ageing population and our efforts to try and keep old and frail people alive for as long as possible, without thinking of the consequences of that. This is of course only going to get worse before it gets better.

In summary the consequences of decadence emerging.

 

[adc82140]

It's also probable that the likes of Iraq don't test every Tom, Dick and Harry who has a cold, so there's not this mass panic amongst the political classes, the media and those who lap up everything the press tell them.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Plan C will no doubt come some time around 22nd December just in time for Christmas, then plan D (the full “Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives”) in the first few days of January…

I don’t doubt that Plan C & D won’t happen now, but I won’t cancel my Xmas and I won’t waste another moment of my life on that failing health service ever again, and to prove I’m not a hypocrite I’ll go private if I have to, it’s ironic that these measures will ultimately kill off the NHS entirely.

Good to see a few blue ticks on social media finally growing a backbone and calling this rubbish out, especially with Vax Passes.

I see Andy Burnham has come out against them too

 

[DanNCL]

I get incredibly frustrated with the government and others telling us to protect the NHS. The NHS is there to protect us, not the other way round. If the NHS can’t cope with the demand of covid the government need to be supporting it to cope rather than imposing more restrictions on us.

At least 20 Tory MPs have publicly said they’ll vote against the latest restrictions. If pro-restriction Labour can be convinced to vote against on the basis either of some technicality they don’t agree with, or even just on the basis that it’ll be a defeat in the commons for Boris, then these restrictions will be quashed.

 

[yorksrob]

Here is what she's very recently said about Omicron:

Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid, warns Oxford vaccine creator

This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihood, warns Dame Sarah Gilbert

www.independent.co.uk

Like almost all people in the field she seems to think that we should be taking steps to slow the spread. If that doesn't mean restrictions of some kind, or measures such as mask wearing, then I'm not sure what it does mean. So she'd seem to be significantly at variance with the prevailing view on this thread.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==


www.independent.co.uk
Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid, warns Oxford vaccine creator
This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihood, warns Dame Sarah Gilbert
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

I'd say that the fact that there may be another pandemic in future is all the more reason not to squander the country's capacity/willingness to accept restrictions everytime a more challenging varient of the current virus comes along.

Keep your powder dry.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I get incredibly frustrated with the government and others telling us to protect the NHS. The NHS is there to protect us, not the other way round. If the NHS can’t cope with the demand of covid the government need to be supporting it to cope rather than imposing more restrictions on us.

At least 20 Tory MPs have publicly said they’ll vote against the latest restrictions. If pro-restriction Labour can be convinced to vote against on the basis either of some technicality they don’t agree with, or even just on the basis that it’ll be a defeat in the commons for Boris, then these restrictions will be quashed.

Andy Burnham has come out against vax passes (though the sceptical side of me is thinking that this is more of a leadership aim than his true beliefs on the issue) but I wouldn’t hold your breath with Labour

 

[Smidster]

I get incredibly frustrated with the government and others telling us to protect the NHS. The NHS is there to protect us, not the other way round. If the NHS can’t cope with the demand of covid the government need to be supporting it to cope rather than imposing more restrictions on us.

At least 20 Tory MPs have publicly said they’ll vote against the latest restrictions. If pro-restriction Labour can be convinced to vote against on the basis either of some technicality they don’t agree with, or even just on the basis that it’ll be a defeat in the commons for Boris, then these restrictions will be quashed.

There is no chance the restrictions will be voted down next week - Labour support them and indeed want even more.

Speaking of which the ideas for Plan C are coming together for January:

More Masks - Didn't work in Plan A or Plan B but maybe if we just believe in them a little more?
Return to "Check-Ins" at venues - Didn't work last Summer but maybe if we just believe in it a little more?
Expansion of Vaccine Passports - Didn't work in Plan B but maybe if we just believe in it a little more?
Close Contact Quarantine - Pingdemic Part 2

Would also expect LFTs to be removed from Vaccine Passports or at least require "Medical Supervision" - Of course that has the effect (quite by chance I am sure) of lots more money for Tory Donors and mates.

 

[philosopher]

There is no chance the restrictions will be voted down next week - Labour support them and indeed want even more.

Speaking of which the ideas for Plan C are coming together for January:

More Masks - Didn't work in Plan A or Plan B but maybe if we just believe in them a little more?
Return to "Check-Ins" at venues - Didn't work last Summer but maybe if we just believe in it a little more?
Expansion of Vaccine Passports - Didn't work in Plan B but maybe if we just believe in it a little more?
Close Contact Quarantine - Pingdemic Part 2

Would also expect LFTs to be removed from Vaccine Passports or at least require "Medical Supervision" - Of course that has the effect (quite by chance I am sure) of lots more money for Tory Donors and mates.

Already the Guardian is mentioning tougher measures may be required:

Stricter measures than plan B may be needed to rein in UK’s Omicron growth

Analysis: scientists say home working makes sense but voice fears over advice to go ahead with parties amid steep trajectory in cases

www.theguardian.com

Scientists say that making working from home a first line of defence, ahead of social gatherings, is not necessarily a frivolous choice. In the hierarchy of measures that can be deployed, working from home is an effective way to bring down people’s daily contacts and is relatively painless economically. However, many fear that the threat posed by Omicron will require more than the first line of defence and that plan B does not go far enough.

“People working from home makes a lot of sense as it can massively reduce contacts at a population level,” says Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. “Having said that, the other measure that has the largest effect is reducing gathering sizes. For me it makes no sense to be instituting working from home policies and saying go ahead with parties. That is frankly ridiculous.”

The problem is that we are on such a steep trajectory that hospitals could easily be overwhelmed by January, depending on how case numbers translate into severe illness. “What we are doing now is very unlikely to be sufficient,” said Gurdasani.

While Plan B will almost certainly pass on Tuesday, one can only hope there is enough of a Tory rebellion to disuade the government from going ahead with stricter measures.

 

[DanNCL]

Andy Burnham has come out against vax passes (though the sceptical side of me is thinking that this is more of a leadership aim than his true beliefs on the issue) but I wouldn’t hold your breath with Labour

Of course it’s only a leadership aim from him. We already know the Labour party are pro vaccine passes from what they’re doing in Wales.

There is no chance the restrictions will be voted down next week - Labour support them and indeed want even more.

Labour haven’t always voted through stuff they agree with if voting against will lead to a government defeat. Small chance, but still a chance.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Whoever designed that ping app should be locked up for crimes against humanity.

 

[Class 33]

Why an earth has the government brought in this Plan B nonsense?? They previously said they would only do so if hospital admissions start to rise significantly!! Of which they're not!!! And so much for Johnson's "cautious but irreversible Roadmap"!!! More lies again!!! And a massive over reaction to this Omicron variant!!! Absolutely appalling.

 

[DanNCL]

Why an earth has the government brought in this Plan B nonsense?? They previously said they would only do so if hospital admissions start to rise significantly!! Of which they're not!!! And so much for Johnson's "cautious but irreversible Roadmap"!!! More lies again!!! And a massive over reaction to this Omicron variant!!! Absolutely appalling.

It had nothing to do with “protecting” people, he did it so that the media had something to talk about other than the Downing Street parties last year. Wouldn’t surprise me if he also saw it as a punishment for people being rightly angry with him for not sticking to his own rules.

 

[ls2270]

So refreshing to read all the intelligent comment on here! If only more of the population could think so rationally! The train I’m currently on has five passengers including me in this coach and I’m the only one wearing a mask (much as I disagree with and hate them I don’t like breaking the law). Hopefully it’s an illustration of the tide turning against this nonsense!

 

[duncanp]

Plan C will no doubt come some time around 22nd December just in time for Christmas, then plan D (the full “Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives”) in the first few days of January…



The latter point is certainly something of concern. What with our buffoon government, the rest of Europe too busy locking up their citizens, and not the most dynamic US president, and it presents quite an opportunity for any regime who feels like doing something.

I really don't think that Plan C will happen on 22nd December - Boris Johnson would be toast politically if he decided to sneak out tougher restrictions after parliament has risen for the Christmas recess.

It is more likely that Plan C, IF it is implemented, (and it is by no means certain that this will happen) will come in January.

Early January will be the peak of the Omicron wave, if the doubling time of 2.5 days turns out to be correct.

If you do the maths, after early January the virus will have run out of people to infect, and the curve on the graph will start to fall just as steeply as it has risen.

As for Plan D (ie. full lockdown) - not a chance.

 

[asw22]

Any conspiracy theorists on here? My mate thinks that there is so much pressure to raise the interest rates, but the global economy can’t handle, it or there is some stock exchange crash likely, these measures will slow the economy down, and Omicron will provide an excuse for not raising them. I am not sure of all the details, but usually when I was calling him an idiot (no, they won’t introduce masks, they wouldn’t think of introducing vaccine passports, we’ll learn to live with it) he has unfortunately been proved right. As you can see I’m not an economist.

A side effect of any restrictions will reduce demand in some areas, for example a reduction in travel during lockdown 1 saw petrol fall to 99p per litre for a while as demand fell. This in turn helps to reduce inflationary pressures on interest rates, although this is short term and prices rebounded past their pre covid levels which would mean that the inflationary pressures would only be delayed by a few months.

Many countries have a significant amount of covid debt and an increase in interest rates wouldn't help.

On the opposite side though, if restrictions or lockdown did occur and sectors of the economy had to close (yet again) then would furlough return and could it be afforded? Like with World War Two debt it is likely that this would be spread out over decades to extend payback times.

 

[Dent]

Already the Guardian is mentioning tougher measures may be required:

What "steep trajectory of cases" do they think we are on? The 7 day average actually started falling yesterday after a slow increase. Hospital admissions are stable with maybe a slight increase, but nowhere near a level to overwhelm the NHS.

 

[DustyBin]

I really don't think that Plan C will happen on 22nd December - Boris Johnson would be toast politically if he decided to sneak out tougher restrictions after parliament has risen for the Christmas recess.

It is more likely that Plan C, IF it is implemented, (and it is by no means certain that this will happen) will come in January.

Early January will be the peak of the Omicron wave, if the doubling time of 2.5 days turns out to be correct.

If you do the maths, after early January the virus will have run out of people to infect, and the curve on the graph will start to fall just as steeply as it has risen.

As for Plan D (ie. full lockdown) - not a chance.

All of this assumes we’re playing by the rules though, which I’m not 100% certain we are. I see a government and PM who’ll do as they please and to hell with the consequences. Scarily, if the current regime falls I’m inclined to think the replacement could be even worse!

 

[NorthKent1989]

Scarily, if the current regime falls I’m inclined to think the replacement could be even worse!

This is my worry, the only way out of this is a general election, an do know who im voting for

 

[Bantamzen]

I’ve raised this before but how much demand actually is there from these nations? I remember talking to a friend of a friend last year who lives in Kenya and he said something along the lines of “wait until you have a real pandemic”. This fits exactly with what I keep reading from Africa-based members on a couple of other forums I frequent; they just don’t care about covid. Looking at the data from the likes of Botswana and Ethiopia for example I’m not surprised as they’ve seen very few covid deaths. The criticism often levelled at them is that they aren’t testing enough and aren’t recording covid deaths accurately. The latter wouldn’t surprise me but in regard to the former maybe it’s actually us who are getting it wrong?

None of this negates the fact that the West have put themselves first, not once (which was understandable) but now twice as we roll out arguably pointless boosters. I think it’s important to point out though that some parts of the world may not thank us for offering them something they don’t actually feel they need.

You raise an interesting point. I honestly didn't think for a minute that there might not be that much demand in poorer countries.

 

[quantinghome]

And a massive over reaction to this Omicron variant!!! Absolutely appalling.

Let's hope you're right. At this stage who knows?