Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[adc82140]

New mask regulations have landed, hurray :-/

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1400/made

Lots more places as expected, nothing else appears surprising.

Expiry now 26th January. I must say that I was looking forward to the promised three-weekly review next week, but for some reason they seem to have forgotten about that now

(as usual, despite Parliament sitting, these are 'too urgent' to be approved ahead of time. But you guessed that already).

Not going to affect me. I will cite my exemption if necessary, but in the week and a half since they became compulsory in shops again, no one has even asked.

 

[nw1]

But anarchism is a very extreme form of libertarianism.

Most people who are centre left leaning who are more on the libertarian side then authoritarian would be very much opposed to anarchism.

There is some really quite disgusting stuff in that article. It seems to equate lockdown scepticism with not only right-wing politics, but also anti-Semitism which is vile and beyond the pale.

 

[Eyersey468]

I would simply listen to Dr Sarah Gilbert. If she ever says fourth doses are necessary then I will take that as true.

My understanding is that she doesn't feel a booster is necessary for most people (notwithstanding the caveat I've covered before, regarding the gap between doses) so there would have to be a dramatic turn of events for this to happen.

I would deem her to be infinitely more trustworthy on this matter than a director of a company like Pfeizer

Sorry for my ignorance who is Doctor Sarah Gilbert?

 

[bramling]

New mask regulations have landed, hurray :-/

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1400/made

Lots more places as expected, nothing else appears surprising.

Expiry now 26th January. I must say that I was looking forward to the promised three-weekly review next week, but for some reason they seem to have forgotten about that now

(as usual, despite Parliament sitting, these are 'too urgent' to be approved ahead of time. But you guessed that already).

All coming together now for our annual winter return to restrictions. Plan C will land just in time for Christmas, SAGE already hinting that the current lot of restrictions unlikely to be enough.

Meanwhile, try getting in touch with a GP. I consider that a bigger risk to health than Covid.

 

[Jonny]

Sorry for my ignorance who is Doctor Sarah Gilbert?

She is credited as the designer of the AstraZeneca Vaccine.

 

[Eyersey468]

She is credited as the designer of the AstraZeneca Vaccine.

Thank you

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==

All coming together now for our annual winter return to restrictions. Plan C will land just in time for Christmas, SAGE already hinting that the current lot of restrictions unlikely to be enough.

Meanwhile, try getting in touch with a GP. I consider that a bigger risk to health than Covid.

One of my concerns is that every winter there will be demands for restrictions, we can't keep flitting in and out of restrictions forever more.

 

[Jonny]

New mask regulations have landed, hurray :-/

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1400/made

Lots more places as expected, nothing else appears surprising.

Expiry now 26th January. I must say that I was looking forward to the promised three-weekly review next week, but for some reason they seem to have forgotten about that now

(as usual, despite Parliament sitting, these are 'too urgent' to be approved ahead of time. But you guessed that already).

The new rules are all over the proverbial shop, including places of worship but exempting singing. If that is the case, why bother at all; if you are singing then you are spraying whatever throughout the venue.

As much as anything else, it smacks of being badly thought-out. I am going to wait for the carnage to settle.

 

[NorthKent1989]

One of my concerns is that every winter there will be demands for restrictions, we can't keep flitting in and out of restrictions forever more.

Agreed, it’ll damage the economy and their precious NHS but hey ho

 

[Eyersey468]

Agreed, it’ll damage the economy and their precious NHS but hey ho

I wonder how long it will take them for the penny to drop and of those in favour of restrictions now how many will change their tune when a close family member has no job any more because of it

 

[Jonny]

Agreed, it’ll damage the economy and their precious NHS but hey ho

Anyone would think that the "pot" for furlough was empty, and they simply didn't have the fortitude to go for a full lockdown.

 

[21C101]

I wonder how long it will take them for the penny to drop and of those in favour of restrictions now how many will change their tune when a close family member has no job any more because of it

Locally social media they are all bellyaching about the non appearance so far of a step free access footbridge and lifts costing several million.

Normally they are bellyaching that the government is not having enough restrictions and not throwing enough furlough/grants/universal credit covid £20 extra a week around.

They are of course totally unable to make any connection between the two subjects they are bellyaching about.

 

[westv]

New mask regulations have landed, hurray :-/

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1400/made

Lots more places as expected, nothing else appears surprising.

Expiry now 26th January. I must say that I was looking forward to the promised three-weekly review next week, but for some reason they seem to have forgotten about that now

(as usual, despite Parliament sitting, these are 'too urgent' to be approved ahead of time. But you guessed that already).

I imagine that the WFH advice will also run until at least 26/1 too.

 

[takno]

Unfortunately some views being expressed on this thread are well beyond "falling just slightly to one side of the line", in my opinion. Some seem to be the product of misinformation and excessively narrow reading, again in my opinion.

I'm sure we can all agree on that. There may however be some difference in our lists of who is deluded and who isn't.

 

[DustyBin]

Maybe because they’re experts and have substantive evidence and experience behind them?

Quite possibly, or alternatively they're making it up as they go along.

Aren’t the immunosuppressed receiving a fourth dose already?

I believe so. However as per my previous posts, there is clear justification for this in the form of a significant increase in the level of protection offered to those individuals. Can the same be said of boosters for healthy 40 years olds?

I would simply listen to Dr Sarah Gilbert. If she ever says fourth doses are necessary then I will take that as true.

My understanding is that she doesn't feel a booster is necessary for most people (notwithstanding the caveat I've covered before, regarding the gap between doses) so there would have to be a dramatic turn of events for this to happen.

I would deem her to be infinitely more trustworthy on this matter than a director of a company like Pfeizer

I'll look her up, thanks. The issue of course is that the government is more likely to listen to Pfizer, and it's the government making the decisions....

 

[route101]

I imagine that the WFH advice will also run until at least 26/1 too.

Can see the WFH advice last all winter!

 

[nw1]

Thank you

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==


One of my concerns is that every winter there will be demands for restrictions, we can't keep flitting in and out of restrictions forever more.

That is the issue, and that is what the politicians need to be quizzed about. It is this, more than anything else, which disturbs me personally - as I have said before.

If Omicron is causing harsh restrictions (thankfully not extreme harsh just yet, but do you trust U-turn Johnson) then Sigma at the end of 2022 will do the same and Chi at the end of 2023 the same. They do seem to be more prone to imposing restrictions in winter in general: when Delta became a problem in the late spring there were not so many calls for harsh restrictions even though it was seen as a worrisome mutation.

Politicians need to be up-front and state whether they believe that a January-March lockdown every year, assuming a new mutation (which there will be, I'm sure) is going to become the norm. Then people can vote on whether they see this as the least-worst option, or not.

 

[Darandio]

I cannot believe we are still talking potential future lockdowns for what is a survivable illness for 99%+ of the people it infects. And that's without the ever increasing possibility that Omnicron is a much milder variant, not that you would know that because many news outlets are bending over backwards to avoid telling you.

Any future damaging restrictions are no longer based on the 'science' or to protect anybody, they are purely political.

 

[AlterEgo]

I agree with the tenor of posts that lockdown/restrictions could become an annual thing. I’m suspicious of this too.

 

[nw1]

The only hope is I suspect the reaction to a lockdown this time will be different, in terms of public opinion. I suspect that, unless Omicron proves to be a deadly mutation with a higher death rate than Alpha, Delta, etc, most people will be against.

Witness the big demos in Continental Europe for example. I think many people are getting sick and tired of this now, and as I've said above, frightened of this becoming an annual event.

 

[BRX]

I would simply listen to Dr Sarah Gilbert. If she ever says fourth doses are necessary then I will take that as true.

My understanding is that she doesn't feel a booster is necessary for most people (notwithstanding the caveat I've covered before, regarding the gap between doses) so there would have to be a dramatic turn of events for this to happen.

I would deem her to be infinitely more trustworthy on this matter than a director of a company like Pfeizer

Here is what she's very recently said about Omicron:

Amid concerns about the omicron variant, now discovered in 30 countries, she said the spike protein of this variant "contains mutations already known to increase transmissibility".

"But there are additional changes that may mean antibodies induced by the vaccines, or by infection with other variants, may be less effective at preventing infection with omicron. Until we know more, we should be cautious, and take steps to slow down the spread of this new variant," she added.

Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid, warns Oxford vaccine creator

This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihood, warns Dame Sarah Gilbert

www.independent.co.uk

Like almost all people in the field she seems to think that we should be taking steps to slow the spread. If that doesn't mean restrictions of some kind, or measures such as mask wearing, then I'm not sure what it does mean. So she'd seem to be significantly at variance with the prevailing view on this thread.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==

****

And meanwhile from SAGE meeting two days ago (my bold):

SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19, 7 December 2021

www.gov.uk

17. Any wave of significant infection, almost irrespective of immune escape, will spill over into hospitalisations, and ultimately deaths. If initial estimates of transmission advantage and immune escape from South Africa are applicable to the UK population, there is the potential for a very substantial peak of infections much larger than occurred during the winter wave of January 2021. Even if severity of omicron were half that of delta, the sheer number of infections could lead to significantly more pressures on health and care settings; currently there is no strong evidence that omicron infections are either more or less severe than delta infections.

18. If omicron’s immune escape reduces vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation from, say, 96 per cent to 92 per cent, that would effectively double the number of vaccinated individuals who are not protected from hospitalisation.

23. Assuming that omicron has the same severity or pathogenicity as delta, all modelled scenarios from the three groups so far have qualitative similarities across sensitivities analysed, irrespective of immune escape and transmissibility assumptions made and the interplay between these. Even assuming the lower end of this observed growth rate, many scenarios see hospitalisations close to or going beyond previous peak levels, if there is no reduction in transmission. The situations where the peak of the epidemic is below 1,000 to 2,000 omicron hospital admissions per day (without intervention) require low immune escape and very high protection from boosters to be consistent with observed growth.

24. The rapid rate of increase currently observed suggests that omicron-based hospital admissions alone could be of the order of 1,000 per day by the end of 2021.

 

[Jonny]

The only hope is I suspect the reaction to a lockdown this time will be different, in terms of public opinion. I suspect that, unless Omicron proves to be a deadly mutation with a higher death rate than Alpha, Delta, etc, most people will be against.

Witness the big demos in Continental Europe for example. I think many people are getting sick and tired of this now, and as I've said above, frightened of this becoming an annual event. I think this, together with the risk of economic collapse for certain sections of the economy, may - hopefully - cause the politicians to think again soon.

Last year we were promised the vaccines would end this. Currently, the politicians are appearing to promise nothing. This is just going to cause fear, and anger, in many people. It's time they adopt a bit of honesty, let us know what the long-term strategy is, and let us decide - perhaps via referenda - whether we want that or not.

I am watching the government's reactions and I hope that this is Biosecurity Theatre, because I really don't want to think about the alternatives.

 

[Bikeman78]

Here is what she's very recently said about Omicron:

Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid, warns Oxford vaccine creator

This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihood, warns Dame Sarah Gilbert

www.independent.co.uk

Like almost all people in the field she seems to think that we should be taking steps to slow the spread. If that doesn't mean restrictions of some kind, or measures such as mask wearing, then I'm not sure what it does mean. So she'd seem to be significantly at variance with the prevailing view on this thread.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==

****

And meanwhile from SAGE meeting two days ago (my bold):

SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19, 7 December 2021

www.gov.uk

Around half of the population cannot work from home. I don't know anyone in work that has got seriously ill from Covid, let alone died of it. How scared are we supposed to be? We're not all going to put our lives on hold forever to save the NHS, especially as it's already broken. If Covid is as serious as the government makes out then I doubt they'd be having parties. They'd be doing all they could to avoid catching it.

 

[Towers]

Around half of the population cannot work from home. I don't know anyone in work that has got seriously ill from Covid, let alone died of it. How scared are we supposed to be? We're not all going to put our lives on hold forever to save the NHS, especially as it's already broken. If Covid is as serious as the government makes out then I doubt they'd be having parties. They'd be doing all they could to avoid catching it.

Scared enough to unquestioningly let Boris & Co jab and restrict you to whatevet extent they decree is needed. It's for your own good you see...

 

[21C101]

Regarding Sage and the other "Experts"

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth.

This very kindness stings with intolerable insult.

To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.

C.S. Lewis

 

[Kez]

Scared enough to unquestioningly let Boris & Co jab and restrict you to whatevet extent they decree is needed. It's for your own good you see...

Since I don't lurk around dark corners of the internet, could you explain to me what possible interest 'Boris & Co' could have in 'jab(bing) you' and why he should decree that it be done, to what seemingly to your mind, is unnecessarily

... or are you suggesting that he is a corrupt politician taking backhanders from Pfizer and all the other big pharma companies involved in for-profit vaccine manufacture.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Dec 2021 ==

Regarding Sage and the other "Experts"

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth.

This very kindness stings with intolerable insult.

To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.

C.S. Lewis

Nice quote ... but you do know that 'Sage and the other 'Experts' , don't actually make public policy. They inform it.

In the novel 1985 (IIRC), Anthony Burgess argued that freedom was the freedom to do something (smoking, mainly) in full knowledge that it was bad for you. I don't have a problem with people smoking or not being vaccinated, they can do what they like ... it is when those people start want treatment on the NHS and get it in preference to others who made choices to protect their health that I start having problems.

 

[Bantamzen]

It doesn't work like that.

For example South Africa has a surplus of vaccines which they seem unable to use as people don't want the vaccine.

Other countries may have people who are willing but lack the infrastructure to actually deliver the vaccines.

Also the AZ vaccine is the best one for developing countries, however the booster is an mRNA which is less suitable because it needs to be stored at colder temperatures

The UK is going to be supplying many AZ doses around the world; taking a booster in the UK won't finish our ability to do that

But didn't the WHO not too long ago ask developed nations to help supply poorer nations rather than concentrate on widespread boosters for their own citizens? But that notwithstanding, additional pressures for 3rd and even 4th boosters is possibly going to make it harder for these nations to obtain 1st and 2nd jabs. And if the infrastructure isn't there, we should be helping there too.

 

[dave87016]

Apologies if I’m coming across as thick but the legislation link above won’t open for some reason , are the likes of pubs , restaurants , gyms and places of worship still exceptions from mask wearing being a requirement ?

 

[Darandio]

Apologies if I’m coming across as thick but the legislation link above won’t open for some reason , are the likes of pubs , restaurants , gyms and places of worship still exceptions from mask wearing being a requirement ?

Pubs, restaurants and gyms still are. Masks are required in places of worship though, unless you are singing a hymn...........

 

[eastdyke]

For those who reckon I'm pulling doubling rates in the region of 2-3 days out of thin air, here are some sources.

Firstly, early data from Gauteng Province

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1467944178713862146

Well if you run that log graph of Gauteng cases along a bit, rather than an 'exponential increase' it seems to have err.. stalled.
Reporting of day before - reported day:
Thursday 8281
Friday 11554
Saturday 11625
Sunday (weekend) was 7931
Monday (weekend) was 4501
Tuesday 8449
Wednesday 11703
Thursday 11791

From the graphs here:

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

Can Mr Whitty please redo his slides?

 

[nw1]

In the novel 1985 (IIRC), Anthony Burgess argued that freedom was the freedom to do something (smoking, mainly) in full knowledge that it was bad for you. I don't have a problem with people smoking or not being vaccinated, they can do what they like ... it is when those people start want treatment on the NHS and get it in preference to others who made choices to protect their health that I start having problems.

I do have a problem with smokers being treated as lower-class human beings when being considered for treatment for cancer or any other diseases they might get. This seems judgemental in the extreme. If the NHS can't cope with treating smokers, maybe the NHS needs to be funded better and/or managed better. No time for sanctimonious, holier-than-thou 'you brought this cancer on yourself' nonsense.