Should the NPR services have 1st Class?

[LOL The Irony]

The IRP suggests that Liverpool services will need to be extended as far as York, but the case for having a Liverpool service go to Newcastle is not there. Therefore it can only be the Birmingham trains that head to Newcastle, and in that situation we would not see any diagrams forming of Liverpool-Leeds-Brum-Leeds-Liverpool.

Where did I mention Newcastle?

 

[tomuk]

The IRP suggests that Liverpool services will need to be extended as far as York, but the case for having a Liverpool service go to Newcastle is not there. Therefore it can only be the Birmingham trains that head to Newcastle, and in that situation we would not see any diagrams forming of Liverpool-Leeds-Brum-Leeds-Liverpool.

There is probably more chance of it being Newcastle-Birmingham-Nottingham-Birmingham-Newcastle.

Where does it say that in the IRP? Liverpool to Newcastle has been a service for years how can there not be a case?

However NPR and HS2 are different routes. NPR will be at most 140 mph and HS2 will be 225mph. These two different routes need two different trains. As currently available this would be Zefiro for HS2 and Hitachi A-train 395/80x for NPR.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they do use 80x, are we perhaps thinking it could be existing 80x used on NPR and new stock ordered for new Northern EMU local services, perhaps?

 

[py_megapixel]

If they do use 80x, are we perhaps thinking it could be existing 80x used on NPR and new stock ordered for new Northern EMU local services, perhaps?

Do those not already have enough stock? There's quite a lot of 331s around plus the current allocation of 323s, plus the extra 323s turning up at some point from the west midlands which will already be way more than enough to see off the 319s, and also 9 more available if they want them.

The new stock Northern needs at the moment is surely Sprinter replacements.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do those not already have enough stock? There's quite a lot of 331s around plus the current allocation of 323s, plus the extra 323s turning up at some point from the west midlands which will already be way more than enough to see off the 319s, and also 9 more available if they want them.

The new stock Northern needs at the moment is surely Sprinter replacements.

I am making the assumption that NPR would effectively replace TPE North entirely, but that you would need Northern local services to fill in some of the gaps it would leave on the newly electrified route. Thus more EMUs would be needed.

They could be used ones, but either way it is more EMUs, you don't want to be running 185s under the wires.

 

[Purple Orange]

Where does it say that in the IRP? Liverpool to Newcastle has been a service for years how can there not be a case?

However NPR and HS2 are different routes. NPR will be at most 140 mph and HS2 will be 225mph. These two different routes need two different trains. As currently available this would be Zefiro for HS2 and Hitachi A-train 395/80x for NPR.

3.44 in the IRP states that there will be 6 tph from York to Newcastle, with an intention to increase this to 7 or 8. This gives Manchester-Newcastle a minimum 2 tph. We can take from this that a 3rd tph could happen if the York-Newcastle paths are increased to 7 or 8.

However on 3.65, the IRP suggests that Liverpool NPR services should extend to York to allow interchange for other ECML destinations.

3.104 states that the 7th and 8th York-Newcastle path should not be used for Liverpool services, as there is insufficient revenue to be had.

Throughout the IRP, Birmingham-Newcastle is cited regularly.

This leads me to conclude that Liverpool will only go as far as York, with Birmingham going to Newcastle.

PS, NPR services will share HS2 track in to Manchester. It’s not completely separate.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1035019/integrated-rail-plan-for-the-north-and-midlands-web-version.pdf

Where did I mention Newcastle?

You didn’t, but I was highlighting that the diagram could not work because of Newcastle.

 

[tomuk]

PS, NPR services will share HS2 track in to Manchester. It’s not completely separate.

I know that but that still doesn't justify the use of HS2 stock as the Manchester spur is only 140mph

 

[Purple Orange]

I know that but that still doesn't justify the use of HS2 stock as the Manchester spur is only 140mph

That’s the argument I am making. I agree it should be something like a Javelin for services starting in Liverpool.

In fact I would have updated variants of 6-car Javelins, which could be doubled up in the peaks.

 

[Brooke]

I am quite happy today to use TPE’s current 1st class offering between eg Leeds and Huddersfield, Liverpool and Huddersfield, etc.

So I think yes, if that bit of differentiation will help (1) get people like me out of my car and hence grow the rail market overall and (2) can therefore be justified in price-elasticity terms, then go for it.

 

[Purple Orange]

I am quite happy today to use TPE’s current 1st class offering between eg Leeds and Huddersfield, Liverpool and Huddersfield, etc.

So I think yes, if that bit of differentiation will help (1) get people like me out of my car and hence grow the rail market overall and (2) can therefore be justified in price-elasticity terms, then go for it.

I'm intrigued by this. Why would it be the case that 1st class gets you on the train but standard class results in you driving?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm intrigued by this. Why would it be the case that 1st class gets you on the train but standard class results in you driving?

Comfort? Legroom? Seat width? The ability to work on the train, taking into account the slower journey? (Yes, it will still be slower for most people post NPR, because most people don't live in city centres and the distance is not long enough to gain back that time through fast running).

 

[Brooke]

I'm intrigued by this. Why would it be the case that 1st class gets you on the train but standard class results in you driving?

Sure, two reasons:
1) More space to work, which is the main reason I take the train anyway (vs driving)
2) better chance in my experience to get a seat

(Pré-Covid in standard, it was pretty normal at busy times to not get a seat, even if you’d booked one, since impossible to reach it, someone sat in it, etc..)

 

[Gareth]

If there's a market for it, why does it matter what the reasons are?

 

[Purple Orange]

Sure, two reasons:
1) More space to work, which is the main reason I take the train anyway (vs driving)
2) better chance in my experience to get a seat

(Pré-Covid in standard, it was pretty normal at busy times to not get a seat, even if you’d booked one, since impossible to reach it, someone sat in it, etc..)

More space to work, I agree. Yet you can’t work in your car...

 

[Bletchleyite]

More space to work, I agree. Yet you can’t work in your car...

The car is quicker and will still be so after NPR because most people don't live in, or anywhere near, city centres, and so they have to spend up to an hour getting to the station, and unlike say the WCML or HS2 proper the journeys aren't long enough for the high speed to gain that time back.

 

[Purple Orange]

The car is quicker and will still be so after NPR because most people don't live in, or anywhere near, city centres, and so they have to spend up to an hour getting to the station, and unlike say the WCML or HS2 proper the journeys aren't long enough for the high speed to gain that time back.

A journey from south Manchester to Leeds will often take an hour or more in the car. NPR on this basis is certainly competitive.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A journey from south Manchester to Leeds will often take an hour or more in the car. NPR on this basis is certainly competitive.

Though by the time you've driven to Manchester Airport (HS2), parked up, walked into the station and onto the platform and boarded, having left a bit of slack, it won't be *that* impressive.

 

[Brooke]

More space to work, I agree. Yet you can’t work in your car...

Yeah, exactly. Car is quicker, so it’s only worth taking the train if I can work on the way. To do that, First class is the most reliable bet - whereas in standard you might or might not be able.

 

[tomuk]

I'm intrigued by this. Why would it be the case that 1st class gets you on the train but standard class results in you driving?

If the seat doesn't have a First Class Antimacassar on it I refuse to sit in it

 

[Purple Orange]

Though by the time you've driven to Manchester Airport (HS2), parked up, walked into the station and onto the platform and boarded, having left a bit of slack, it won't be *that* impressive.

That's not quite right. In most cases we're talking about a 20 min journey in to Piccadilly at most (from the periphery of GM) and then a 33 min journey to Leeds, from which point most places are easy walking distance. Whenever I go to Leeds these days for work purposes, the time by car is only equal at best to the train. You simply could never do that journey in 1 hour in the morning. It often takes an hour to get to the M62.

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Yeah, exactly. Car is quicker, so it’s only worth taking the train if I can work on the way. To do that, First class is the most reliable bet - whereas in standard you might or might not be able.

Clearly you do not use the M60 enough or travel through Manchester much. The time taken on the train will be eaten up by traffic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's not quite right. In most cases we're talking about a 20 min journey in to Piccadilly at most (from the periphery of GM) and then a 33 min journey to Leeds, from which point most places are easy walking distance.

I think you're missing the quite significant fact that you need to walk/drive to the station and there needs to be connection time between the two trains, plus a walk, taxi, bus or connecting train at the other end.

And not everyone is travelling in the morning peak.

To give you an idea, Bletchley-Euston typically takes about 50 minutes, but from my house to our office by train in central London is over 90 minutes, closer to 2 hours at times.

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Clearly you do not use the M60 enough or travel through Manchester much. The time taken on the train will be eaten up by traffic.

The M60 is bad in quite narrow narrow peak times. Away from them it is mostly free flowing. It's not the M25 (which itself is nowhere near as bad as some suggest).

 

[Brooke]

I think you're missing the quite significant fact that you need to walk/drive to the station and there needs to be connection time between the two trains, plus a walk, taxi, bus or connecting train at the other end.

And not everyone is travelling in the morning peak.

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The M60 is bad in quite narrow narrow peak times. Away from them it is mostly free flowing. It's not the M25 (which itself is nowhere near as bad as some suggest).

Yes, just travel at the right times, and there’s very little traffic …

 

[Purple Orange]

Yes, just travel at the right times, and there’s very little traffic …

And that is the point. You can't always travel at the right times. If I am going to go to Leeds tomorrow for work, no chance am I driving. The journey times are prohibitive and this is where NPR steps in.

I think you're missing the quite significant fact that you need to walk/drive to the station and there needs to be connection time between the two trains, plus a walk, taxi, bus or connecting train at the other end.

And not everyone is travelling in the morning peak.

To give you an idea, Bletchley-Euston typically takes about 50 minutes, but from my house to our office by train in central London is over 90 minutes, closer to 2 hours at times.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Dec 2021 ==



The M60 is bad in quite narrow narrow peak times. Away from them it is mostly free flowing. It's not the M25 (which itself is nowhere near as bad as some suggest).

Driving or getting the bus to the local station is not overly common that it accounts for most passengers. Its really rather easy to do. Plus if you drive, you have to find a parking space and then walk from your car to your destination. You also have a greater likelihood of traffic jams.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Driving or getting the bus to the local station is not overly common that it accounts for most passengers. Its really rather easy to do. Plus if you drive, you have to find a parking space and then walk from your car to your destination. You also have a greater likelihood of traffic jams.

The vast majority of people do not live within easy walking distance of a railway station. And where they do, it is often one with a service that isn't suitable for a long distance journey, e.g. because it starts too late, finishes too early, is too infrequent etc.

But yes I can walk to the station if you want. How's 25 minutes on top sound?

Unless you live in a city centre and are going to a city centre, rail, even high speed rail, and unless your specific journey at your proposed time is subject to a lot of traffic congestion, it is almost never the case that rail will be quicker, even at 140mph. NPR will simply change things from "unacceptably slow" to "in the realms of the tolerable". Rail also has to win in other ways, e.g. a wide seat with a table to work on the way - and that's where reasonably priced First Class comes in.

 

[Purple Orange]

The vast majority of people do not live within easy walking distance of a railway station. And where they do, it is often one with a service that isn't suitable for a long distance journey, e.g. because it starts too late, finishes too early, is too infrequent etc.

But yes I can walk to the station if you want. How's 25 minutes on top sound?

Unless you live in a city centre and are going to a city centre, rail, even high speed rail, and unless your specific journey at your proposed time is subject to a lot of traffic congestion, it is almost never the case that rail will be quicker, even at 140mph. NPR will simply change things from "unacceptably slow" to "in the realms of the tolerable". Rail also has to win in other ways, e.g. a wide seat with a table to work on the way - and that's where reasonably priced First Class comes in.

Right now, at 4:30pm, a time when many people will be wanting to travel from Leeds to a point in Greater Manchester, the journey time is 90 minutes in the car.

In either direction the city centre will more than likely be the destination. Irrespective of driving or the train you could have up to a 10-20 min journey from you start to getting moving on the train or in the car. With NPR you've then got 33 minutes to the other city centre. Then you could be 30-40 minutes from your home destination. There will be outliers beyond that but not the majority. The car in this scenario loses out every time.