What if the British rail network became an entirely open access operation?

[PTR 444]

This will never happen in a million years and is not something I advocate, but often I have wondered what would happen if the government decided to let go of all railway services and offer them to various open-access operators running them for profit with no funding from the taxpayer. Basically like airlines, coaches and local buses.

This could be imagined in four possible scenarios:

1. The government (Network Rail) still owns the infrastructure but runs no trains, leaving them to open-access passenger operators and freight.
2. A single private company takes control of all the infrastructure and charges a fee to allow open-access operators to use it.
3. Multiple private companies take control of infrastructure on different parts of the network, with each one charging a separate fee to allow open-access operators to use it.
4. The open-access operators own the infrastructure in addition to the services they operate, charging access fees for trains that aren’t their own.

For each of the following scenarios:

1. How much money would the taxpayer save?
2. How much of the existing network would survive (based on pre-Covid loadings)?
3. What would the longer term impact be on society as a whole?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd look at Serpell for what would survive.

 

[pdeaves]

I'd look at Serpell for what would survive.

Exactly. There would be huge losses (which is why subsidy for socially necessary routes became a thing).

 

[HSTEd]

2. How much of the existing network would survive (based on pre-Covid loadings)?

Very little.

Before coronavirus the only franchise that was net receiving net subsidy from the government was c2c.

Vast parts of the network would definitely close overnight and only small fragments of the least unprofitable franchises would survive - some of traffic out of Waterloo and King's Cross, but not much else. (C2C obviously)

 

[PTR 444]

I imagine all the existing Open Access services would survive as they currently have to operate to a profit, but with the significant loss of infrastructure under such a plan could they still be justified?

Especially in scenario 4 where the DfT hands over responsibility of infrastructure to the OAOs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Very little.

Before coronavirus the only franchise that was net receiving net subsidy from the government was c2c.

Vast parts of the network would definitely close overnight and only small fragments of the least unprofitable franchises would survive - some of traffic out of Waterloo and King's Cross, but not much else. (C2C obviously)

I don't think it would lose that much, because routes like London to Manchester could, I imagine, be made profitable if fares increased considerably and the timetable was rejigged to avoid running quite so much fresh air around. I do think Serpell is a reasonable guide to what would be left. Certainly nothing operated by Northern, TfW, TPE, Merseyrail*, nor probably EMR, would remain, and GWR would probably just be Paddington-Bristol and possibly Cardiff.

* A reduced Merseyrail network might well be possible based on the fact that Metrolink breaks even operationally, but it would be DOO and all stations unstaffed, and probably would prune some branches e.g. north of Maghull N, Hooton-Ellesmere Port and probably north of Birkenhead North. Liverpool Lime St might well survive but with one platform serving a London service maybe a few times a day.

 

[Grecian 1998]

What was left would also have shut down every day by 2000 for intercity services and earlier for commuter routes (no secondary routes would survive). Lots of bus routes operate hourly until 1800 and then frequencies fall off a cliff.

 

[Gareth]

So, we'd be looking at a basic intercity service and nothing local or medium distance.

Perhaps some of the South East commuter rail could be profitable though.