That Hyundai is a good looking car. Car of the year. Good range. 800v architecture so super fast charging compatible. Will be difficult to beat.
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Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?
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That Hyundai is a good looking car. Car of the year. Good range. 800v architecture so super fast charging compatible. Will be difficult to beat.
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R
RailUK Forums
Agree, but I've been watching some reviews and it appears to be quite inefficient, only about 3 miles/kWh. And the stated near 300 mile range is actually just a tad over 200. I know they never achieve the range figures, but that is really quite poor and it's me off a bit. The MG5 for example seems to achieve 90% of the stated range in real world driving. Just a shame it's such an old fashioned design.
DustyBin
Established Member
At the end of the day there will always be a market for dated, poorly built, dynamically rubbish but cheap cars (remember LADA?!) and MG are in a good position to corner that end of the EV market. Even I’ll concede that they actually have some decent tech in them, credit where it’s due. Do you want a Chinese car though? I’m not going to be a hypocrite here; as much as I try not to buy Chinese products, especially the throwaway tat they specialise in producing, it’s practically impossible to avoid them altogether as they make so much stuff (some of it very good). They also make a lot of components that find their way into things such as cars, for (a pertinent) example. Splashing £30k on something made in China by a Chinese company though just doesn’t sit right with me (you may of course feel differently, I’m not here to judge!).
reddragon
Established Member
The rates I quoted were quite old, I haven't seen the latest rates. The 2p/kw is a fixed rate offered to new solar & wind in the bidding for the stuff being installed today. That may be a minimum rate? I'm no expert in the electricity wholesale market.
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There are no offers on the MG5 due to demand and the new model is a visual revamp due late 22. Excellent car with lots of space. The only drawback with the current model is the infotainment is a bit slow.
The IONIQ5 is a wow car with the Kia/Hyundai leading efficiency & tech. Not much more space than the MG5 by wow its a good car.
The PSA group e208/Corsa/Citreon etc are on a compromise platform so space inside is tiny and dealer knowledge is minimal. I ruled this one out unless you want it as a 2 seater.
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Most of what we buy today was made in China and most of the electrics in EU/UK made cars are Chinese. The MG5 is solid tech with years under its belt in China, modern tech in a older styled car. Like Tesla, they update with the latest battery tech every few months. The ZS had a 44 kw battery, the MG5 a 50 now 60kw battery and the new ZS a 70 kw battery. The MG5 will get that in 2023 I guess.
You cannot say that any of the EU manufacturers have an EV with a few years of proof of life under the belt other than the old Zoe or LEAF which are equally dated in finish but ancient battery tech wise.
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gg1
Established Member
This again.
20 years ago South Korean cars were regarded as cheap, poorly built junk
50 years ago Japanese cars had the same reputation
Times change, I predict by 2040 Chinese cars will have earned a reputation for reliability and high build quality.
reddragon
Established Member
If you look at what is starting to come out of China now as in new cars, they put us to shame. MG like many in China are an economy brand, but for your money they better the PSA group & Nissan etc. I can put up with styling issues but not outdated compromise tech underneath seen in Nissan & PSA (Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen etc)
Nio & Xpeng for example are surpassing the West and Tesla Shanghai even outdoes Tesla USA
ash39
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(Link is to an Autotrader advert for a 7 year old Tesla S, nearly 100k miles, £34,495. That’s 50% depreciation in 7 years, something most BMW, Audi etc owners of cars that mileage will be rather envious of).
Of course the depreciation is low on a Tesla, we're in a transition period and everyone thinks EV's are saving the world so there's a huge demand for used ones and relatively low supply as they've only recently become more mainstream.
Fast forward 10 years and all the EV's being purchased new today will be on the used market. Supply and demand will level out and used prices will follow the same trend as used ICE cars currently do.
Provided the government don't ban them or tax them off the road, there will be an increase in value of the last ICE vehicles as there will be a number of people who will do anything to avoid changing to an EV until it's forced upon them.
reddragon
Established Member
You are missing a key point.
A Petrol car has a reliable life of up to 100k miles and a diesel 150k miles. After then reliability & maintenance are their downfall. Businesses keep them for 3-4 years depending on warranties.
Very early EVs were 100k miles, most today are 500k miles and LFP battery cars its 1000k miles. Companies will keep these 5-7 years because of reliability and longer warranties.
As the average life of an EV will be longer, the depreciation will naturally be slower.
Also, at the end of life a Petrol / Diesel car is usually valued as scrap whereas an EV has a battery & equipment valued at £5-10k at least and up to £25k in the case of Teslas. That will not change much other than to follow the base cost of a new battery pack which is dropping.
DustyBin
Established Member
It's a fair assessment of the situation as it stands.
Your prediction may be correct; Chinese cars will improve, but so will all the others. Look at what the likes of BMW, Ford, Porsche (the list goes on) have achieved over a relatively short period of time. The issue is that their EVs are expensive, however my prediction is is that the technology will filter down into more affordable models. It remains to be seen how much appetite the West will have for Chinese products going forward, certainly when it coms to high value items such as cars.
I actually agree with you in regard to the likes of PSA, they don't have much to offer IMO but they shouldn't be used as a yardstick in this context.
ash39
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That's a fair point for businesses, but regardless of service life a lot of people (and I'm including 'normals' in this, not just car enthusiasts) change their cars every 2-3 years regardless, because they want a change of brand, or an upgrade, or in some cases the same car in a different colour!
Loads of 3 year old ICE cars with 20-30k miles on the clock get returned after PCP terms/leases end. I don't see this changing with EV's, manufacturers will still need to tempt people to change to keep themselves in business.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
True, and that's not an issue any more than it is for those who like to move house more often than they strictly need to, a market in which there is no depreciation at all, quite the opposite. Indeed, it's easier to change frequently in a market where there is no or lower depreciation as there's a smaller gap to finance.
I too tend to keep cars 3-5 years then want a change, FWIW, not necessarily because I need a change but because a change is as good as a rest, as it were, and what's on the market will have changed too so there could be something more suitable or preferable.
I doubt that there will be a significant drop for demand for 'a car' before or after the 2030 deadline so as far as manufacturers are concerned, their market will just switch to EVs. So they will continue to push cars that cosmetically feed the latest fad and the purchasers will follow. I also doubt that a PCP deal will be worth having for an ICV after about 2025 as the resale value would be so uncertain by 2028. EVs will of course be fine for PCP (as they are already). It's only those who can't/won't accept the rapid change to EVs that seem to be assuming that late ICVs have some rarity value and there will be an ongoing thriving market for them to enjoy. The motor industry will move on and any long-term support would be from a shrinking cottage industry and only be affordable for those who see ICVs as a lifestyle hobby.
reddragon
Established Member
The UK lead on this model which is fairly unique due to our taxation history encouraging company cars and loans laws allowing cheap PCP deals. In much of Europe, hire purchase deals such as these are rare or are not allowed and few companies provide cars as tax wise it's a bad idea. Most people I know in Europe buy a car new and use it until it is too old to be suitable for them or they cannot afford it.
With Global drivers, we can expect that we will fall in line with more international purchase models eventually and EVs may force that change.
Until I got my 1st EV I only bought ex lease cars around 4 years old & drove them to their grave. That stopped because cars started to become too costly to maintain & unreliable with age. The low cost of ownership pushed me into EVs on PCP, limiting me at first but not any longer.
ash39
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Agree with all of that. You might have misunderstood my point about manufacturers though - of course demand won't drop for cars, but if people start to keep EV's for longer than 2-3 years then they will need to be creative in finding a way to motivate people into upgrading. Lets say the average ownership period is 3 years and it increases to 6 years with EV's, how will manufacturers cover the 50% decrease in new car sales? By incentivising, which then makes it more tempting to buy new than used, which then forces down the price of used cars. Hence my point about current depreciation of a Tesla not being entirely representetive of the future we're heading towards.
I do think you're underestimating how many people will want to stick with an ICE until the bitter end. Not just petrolheads and long distnace drivers, but also nervous drivers who are intimidated by ICE's. You and I will know that there's no real difference in terms of driving (if anything an EV or automatic ICE car is easier to drive than a manual ICE car) - but a lot of people will only drive manual ICE cars because it's what they're used to.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
There's plenty of innovation still to do - the biggest one is developing battery technology (and efficiency, e.g. better use of regenerative braking) to increase range. Much as most "range anxiety" is not actually justified, an EV with a 600-1000 mile range, or more, is a definite holy grail.
The EV is no new thing, they've arguably existed longer than ICE vehicles have, but you can't deny they've developed hugely from the first milk floats in the early 20th century to a Tesla.
reddragon
Established Member
Car sales will decline significantly. We have already discussed the longer usable life of an EV in particular for businesses.
EVs also suit the rent by the hour model due to their low maintenance and ability to be parked plugged into a charger. London has hundreds of e-Golf zip-cars. This will kill off the second / third car and reduce on street parking in cities. Why would you want to pay for a parking permit & 100% of car costs and have to hunt for parking when you can just collect a car at the end of the road, use it and park it in a dedicated spot?
They think that around 15% of drivers will try to hold out. In cities they'll get banned and in rural areas Petrol Stations will vanish. Even the die hards will have to concede!
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Some of the second/third cars, not all of them. Indeed, because car clubs have existed with ICE cars for a long time, you could argue that those who would use them already do.
They are no use, for example for commuting on a journey that is poorly provided for by public transport, because, like other forms of demand-responsive shared transport, availability isn't guaranteed at the required time. Most cars are bought for commuting.
reddragon
Established Member
Cities are over run with parked cars used for the weekly shopping or a weekend trip. That will change quickly. Otherwise I agree with you.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'd agree on that. Car hire for a weekend away has typically been awkward - you have to go and pick it up, and returns are usually not possible on Sundays. Car clubs can change that particularly if booking is possible.
I'm not sure. I think we're 3 or 4 years from a tipping point where people will be more likely to buy an EV. For a lot of people with two cars, one being an EV seems like a given and I think once people get one and get over battery anxiety they'll seek to change the other. Charging infrastructure improvements will play a part (and, again, in a few years I expect big improvements there) and of course, reduced costs for buying or leasing an EV.
By the time the car industry is reaching the point where they're getting ready to stop selling ICE vehicles, I think they'll have shrunk the range down considerably.
Bar supercars and other niche market vehicles (but the sort of luxo-barge that will be driving celebs around town will already be electric by then and I'm sure the car makers will have ensured celebs and influencers are only showing off electric powered supercars too), what car choices will there really be? What engine configurations? Maybe the most basic eco-friendly petrol engine (like a 4cyl 1ltr turbo) and little else for ordinary cars, and a handful of petrol cars for track days (and people with very deep pockets).
I am not sure who will want one of those. Petrol heads wouldn't be buying those spec models, so who else?
Frankly, the only ICE cars car enthusiasts will be driving then will be current cars - not new ones bought at the last moment. Any cars still available to buy are more likely going to be purchased for collections, not to drive on the road day to day.
Rest assured, car forums will embrace EVs and people will realise how they can still get their kicks from electric power. I get that the lack of noise and exhaust popping might disappoint some, but they'll get over it - or there will be mods to simulate both!
johncrossley
Established Member
They've already shrunk the city car range considerably. I've been looking for a new small car and found that there are hardly any to choose from, especially automatic ones. What used to be small cars are now big, for example the Corsa and Fiesta. If you want an automatic Fiesta they only offer it on the more expensive models, meaning you are paying well over £20K. So I'll be keeping my old car running instead.
reddragon
Established Member
That is a sensible choice today, you just need to wait for the cheaper EVs
The BYD due next year is cheaper than a Fiesta
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
There are a few reasons for that, mostly unrelated to EVs:
1. "Model inflation", which has been going on for years. The Focus is now for example the large Ford classic estate, before that was the Mondeo, and originally the Granada sat above that. Vauxhall is the same - the Astra estate is now the large* one, before that the Vectra and before that the Carlton. The reason they do that is because people like sticking with the same model, so it grows with their needs as e.g. they have a family. The Corsa now is what the Astra was 10 years ago. Every now and then you insert another at the bottom, e.g. the KA and Adam**.
2. Automatics cost more to make, are harder to make comply with emissions regs (because "slushboxes" waste energy just like Class 170 hydrodynamic transmissions do, and hydraulic-controlled H-gates are expensive), and hardly anyone wants them. Thus they are very much a premium option in budget car ranges.
* The Insignia is specifically aimed at business users and has a smaller boot than the Astra, so was never really a direct Vectra replacement and more competing with some of the BMW range.
** Oddly named, but makes sense when you consider that the full name of the Opel company was Adam Opel.
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reddragon
Established Member
The model range also shrunk because every model & sub model needs to pass both WLTP and real-world tests, which is both costly and pointless as we are moving to EVs
Also anyone wanting automatic can by an EV
johncrossley
Established Member
But they seem to have mostly made the old cars bigger without replacement. The Ka is now big and the Adam no longer exists. Families are getting smaller all the time, so can't see the logic here.
reddragon
Established Member
Car size growth and move to SUVs is the biggest issue causing more CO2 currently outdoing the move to EVs
However with WFH having the potential to reduce the need to commute every day and EV's having their costs in their perchance two things could happen.
Firstly people look to have fewer cars, as they may only need a second car for one day a week or a few times a month.
Secondly, the cost of car clubs could fall. If a car club car is doing (say) 20,000 miles a year there's a lot of add on costs (increased servicing, fuel costs, etc.) whilst an EV wouldn't have such an increase in costs and could realistically be kept for a longer period, potentially spreading the purchase price out (although it may be that as the car gets older it gets moved to another area).
reddragon
Established Member
A good report on learning about battery degradation
EV Battery Health: Key Findings from 22,700 Vehicle Data Analysis | Geotab
Analysis of electric vehicle battery health of 22K+ EVs reveals a 2.3% average battery degradation rate. High-power DC fast charging is the top risk factor.www.geotab.com
Car clubs would be more beneficial for electric cars than ICE ones, as there could be a dedicated parking space with a fast charger. That would appeal for people who don't have their own off-road parking and charging.
Even at the higher rate of 2.3% per year that's still going to give you 80% charge on a 10 year old car.
Given that most ICE cars are getting too the point where they'll need things like Cam belts, clutches and other fairly high value fixes at about that sort of time, it's not likely that it's going to put too many people off ownership, even if they have to fix some cells to retain a higher range.
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