Light Rail v Heavy Rail

[Purple Orange]

^^^ well said.

 

[daodao]

the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester central stations is 26-38 minutes.

Your comparison is not valid in the case of Warrington as the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester Oxford Road station by the half-hourly fast train service is 19 minutes, rather than 26-38 minutes as stated in your post. For places like that, a 2 tph fast train service is preferable to 5 tph by a much slower tram. Modern trams, being lightweight and having different wheel profiles to enable them to run on grooved track in streets, tend to "hunt" excessively on fast sections of track, giving a very uncomfortable ride.

 

[HSTEd]

Your comparison is not valid in the case of Warrington as the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester Oxford Road station by the half-hourly fast train service is 19 minutes, rather than 26-38 minutes as stated in your post. For places like that, a 2 tph fast train service is preferable to 5 tph by a much slower tram, which being lightweight, will "hunt" excessively on fast sections of track giving a very uncomfortable ride.

Well for the rest of today the absolute fastest journey time NationalRail.co.uk is giving me to Manchester Stations is 23 minutes, and most are much longer than that.

Checking Monday and so far all I can find is 23 minutes or longer - so if 19 minute trains do exist they certainly aren't common.

 

[Purple Orange]

Your comparison is not valid in the case of Warrington as the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester Oxford Road station by the half-hourly fast train service is 19 minutes, rather than 26-38 minutes as stated in your post. For places like that, a 2 tph fast train service is preferable to 5 tph by a much slower tram, which being lightweight, will "hunt" excessively on fast sections of track giving a very uncomfortable ride.

Once again, it will never be a tram or even a tram-train on the Warrington line, if it is converted to Metrolink.

 

[yorkie]

Well for the rest of today the absolute fastest journey time NationalRail.co.uk is giving me to Manchester Stations is 23 minutes, and most are much longer than that.

Checking Monday and so far all I can find is 23 minutes or longer - so if 19 minute trains do exist they certainly aren't common.

18 minutes today to Oxford Road on EMR services

 

[HSTEd]

18 minutes today to Oxford Road on EMR services

For some reason National Rail doesn't want you getting off East Midlands trains at Oxford Road....


But 1 train per hour at 18 minutes is of negligible usefulness given that it would have an adjusted journey time of 48 minutes.....

As British Rail proved again and again, and many other operations have shown afterwards, both in the UK and a broad - handfuls of fast trains are worthless for driving patronage and modal shift.

What drives modal shift is high intensity timetables with reasonable journey times available throughout the day.

EDIT:

Right now, taking a sample hour, there is a 19 minute journey at xx18, a 27 minute journey at xx35 and a 35 minute journey at xx59.

On average, arriving at a random time during that sample hour, journey time to Oxford road is on the order of 37 minutes.

With a 5tph evenly spaced tram service you are looking at an average wait of 6 minutes and thus the tram has to do it in 31 minutes.

Which is an average speed of only 30mph.

So I think my point remains substantially intact.

 

[Purple Orange]

18 minutes today to Oxford Road on EMR services

That’s off topic!

 

[daodao]

Checking Monday and so far all I can find is 23 minutes or longer - so if 19 minute trains do exist they certainly aren't common.

Before my previous post, I checked the National Rail enquiry service for Monday 11th October 2021 for trains in the middle of the day. I found half-hourly departures at 18/48 minutes past the hour from Warrington Central, arriving Manchester Oxford Road at 37/07 minutes past the hour respectively, which is a journey time of 19 minutes.

 

[HSTEd]

Before my previous post, I checked the National Rail enquiry service for Monday 11th October 2021 for trains in the middle of the day. I found half-hourly departures at 18/48 minutes past the hour from Warrington Central, arriving Manchester Oxford Road at 37/07 minutes past the hour respectively, which is a journey time of 19 minutes.

I show three trains per hour with only one having a journey time of 19 minutes in most hours.

(For some reason, EMR trains don't go to Oxford Road according to NationalRail)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Your comparison is not valid in the case of Warrington as the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester Oxford Road station by the half-hourly fast train service is 19 minutes, rather than 26-38 minutes as stated in your post.

It would be interesting to see the relative passenger numbers between those taking Merseyrail from Liverpool to Chester (4tph but slower) and those taking TfW (1tph but faster).

I suspect you might find they don't actually agree with your premise, because a half-hourly service is only useful if the times suit.

There are limits to this. I suspect if you asked around Bletchley if people would prefer 5tph all stations to Euston (journey time about 1 hour) or the present two semifasts (40-something minutes) and a fast (bit less than that) they'll go for the latter, but I think if you're talking 20 minutes to 30 minutes I think most people would choose the higher frequency, as if you just miss a half hourly service (or the times don't suit your purposes) the de-facto journey time can go right up to 49 minutes (29 minute wait + 20 minute journey time), and the worst-case of the 5tph service to only 41 minutes (11 minute wait + 30 minute journey time). If you add to that that the tram will almost certainly take them closer to their central Manchester destination (exception: if that happens to be the universities) then you've got even more gain there.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2021 ==

(For some reason, EMR trains don't go to Oxford Road according to NationalRail)

They do.

 

[HSTEd]

They do.

I mean, if you order trains from Warrington Central to Manchester Stations, EMR trains take you to Manchester Picadilly rather than Oxford Road, like the Northern Trains do.

 

[daodao]

I show three trains per hour with only one having a journey time of 19 minutes in most hours.

(For some reason, EMR trains don't go to Oxford Road according to NationalRail)

You need to state Manchester Oxford Road station as the destination (not Manchester stations) to find all the fast trains from Warrington Central on National Rail Enquiries.

It would be interesting to see the relative passenger numbers between those taking Merseyrail from Liverpool to Chester (4tph but slower) and those taking TfW (1tph but faster).

There is a big difference between a train frequency of 1 tph and 2 tph in terms of usefulness and comparison with a more frequent tram service.

There is a tipping point in terms of distance/speed/comfort between a 5 tph tram service and a 2 tph heavy rail train service. In my opinion, places like Macclesfield, Wilmslow and Warrington are beyond the limit where a frequent tram service is preferable or practical, in contrast to Altrincham, Bury or Oldham. Chester is slightly different, because (in the absence of any other rail traffic on the line), Merseyrail have been able to provide a 4 tph electric heavy rail service from Liverpool.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I mean, if you order trains from Warrington Central to Manchester Stations, EMR trains take you to Manchester Picadilly rather than Oxford Road, like the Northern Trains do.

The EMR service from Liverpool to Nottingham/Norwich stops at Oxford Road and always has (give or take any engineering closures) for as long as the service has been in its current form. If you don't believe me, check Realtime Trains, I just did and I'm correct.

 

[HSTEd]

You need to state Manchester Oxford Road station as the destination (not Manchester stations) to find all the fast trains from Warrington Central on National Rail Enquiries.

This seems to be entirely illogical behaviour. Some trains terminate the routing at Oxford Road but not others?

It turns out the second 19 minute train in an hour does exist but seems to run at a seemingly randomly selected set of times.

In an hour where it does run we shrink adjusted journey time to 31 minutes, and thus the tram equivalent journey time of 25 minutes.

Without proper modelling I can't tell if that is achievable or not, after all a tram does have dramatically better performance than a Sprinter or similar.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you're having a mare with NRE. The EMR service is hourly, mostly at xx18, though some are seemingly missing at the moment (I guess COVID cuts, as it traditionally was hourly all day). All of them call at MCO.

Realtime Trains - Departures from Warrington Central

Realtime Trains is an independent source of live realtime running information for the Great British railway network.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

The Northern service terminates at Oxford Road, which is probably why this is happening when you just search for Manchester.

 

[daodao]

This seems to be entirely illogical behaviour. Some trains terminate the routing at Oxford Road but not others?

It turns out the second 19 minute train in an hour does exist but seems to run at a seemingly randomly selected set of times.

In an hour where it does run we shrink adjusted journey time to 31 minutes, and thus the tram equivalent journey time of 25 minutes.

Without proper modelling I can't tell if that is achievable or not, after all a tram does have dramatically better performance than a Sprinter or similar.

Nearly all the slow/semi-fast trains from Warrington Central to Manchester terminate at Oxford Road station.

There are currently a few gaps in the half-hourly fast service pattern, presumably due to Covid-related planned cancellations. I would expect the full half-hourly fast service to be restored at some point.

 

[Purple Orange]

This debate about the merits of metrolink v EMR on the CLC to Warrington is missing the point entirely.

If the line was converted, there would still be a heavy rail service alongside the metrolink services.

 

[daodao]

This debate about the merits of metrolink v EMR on the CLC to Warrington is missing the point entirely.

If the line was converted, there would still be a heavy rail service alongside the metrolink services.

It would not be possible to run a 2 tph fast service from Warrington Central to Manchester on the CLC line as well as a 5 tph tram-train stopping service. The most that could be accommodated is either a Metrolink tram service, or a 2 tph fast train service combined with a 2 tph stopping train service, the latter leaving Warrington Central and Manchester Oxford Road stations just after a fast train has departed.

The situation at Rotherham (Central) station shows that while tram-train services are feasible, they cannot be run at a high frequency because of the need to accommodate other heavy rail services.

 

[HSTEd]

This debate about the merits of metrolink v EMR on the CLC to Warrington is missing the point entirely.

If the line was converted, there would still be a heavy rail service alongside the metrolink services.

Running a residual heavy rail service would be problematic for timetable reasons unless it was slowed down to be not much faster than the trams.

In addition, it would be quite a lot of work given the operational problems today's services cause with the flat junction onto Castlefield.

Eliminating those annoyances is probably one of the main ways such a scheme would get funded.

 

[Purple Orange]

It would not be possible to run a 2 tph fast service from Warrington Central to Manchester on the CLC line as well as a 5 tph tram-train stopping service. The most that could be accommodated is either a Metrolink tram service, or a 2 tph fast train service combined with a 2 tph stopping train service, the latter leaving Warrington Central and Manchester Oxford Road stations just after a fast train has departed.

The situation at Rotherham (Central) station shows that while tram-train services are feasible, they cannot be run at a high frequency because of the need to accommodate other heavy rail services.

Running a residual heavy rail service would be problematic for timetable reasons unless it was slowed down to be not much faster than the trams.

In addition, it would be quite a lot of work given the operational problems today's services would cause with the flat junction onto Castlefield.

Eliminating those annoyances is probably one of the main ways such a scheme would get funded.

A mix of light rail & heavy rail works between Newcastle & Sunderland. Although I think it won’t specifically be tram-trains on the line, the principal of them is to run on track shared with heavy rail. You’d get 5 tph light rail and 1 tph heavy rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A mix of light rail & heavy rail works between Newcastle & Sunderland. Although I think it won’t specifically be tram-trains on the line, the principal of them is to run on track shared with heavy rail. You’d get 5 tph light rail and 1 tph heavy rail.

And if you did, guess which most non-enthusiast people would use from Warrington to Manchester? (See also my Chester example - OK, Merseyrail isn't light rail, but the point is that the simple, high frequency service is the one they will go for even if it's slower).

 

[Purple Orange]

And if you did, guess which most non-enthusiast people would use from Warrington to Manchester? (See also my Chester example - OK, Merseyrail isn't light rail, but the point is that the simple, high frequency service is the one they will go for even if it's slower).

Oh certainly. Especially given that Warrington metrolink cant happen unless a tunnel under manchester is built. This makes it unlikely that tram-trains would use the line, but it also increases the likelihood of the conversion not happening.

 

[daodao]

A mix of light rail & heavy rail works between Newcastle & Sunderland.

The distance between Newcastle & Sunderland is shorter than that between Manchester Oxford Road and Warrington Central, and the heavy rail journeys are significantly slower. In my opinion, unless the heavy train service speed was significantly reduced to the same as that of the trains, one couldn't operate a heavy rail service as well as tram-trains on the CLC line.

Historically, there was a combination of steam (later diesel) services with frequent stopping electric services on the MSJ&A line from Altrincham & Bowdon to Manchester, but again the distance was significantly shorter than that between Warrington Central and Manchester.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh certainly. Especially given that Warrington metrolink cant happen unless a tunnel under manchester is built. This makes it unlikely that tram-trains would use the line, but it also increases the likelihood of the conversion not happening.

I would be amazed if a third city crossing (probably a Den Haag-esque Tramtunnel) was not built within 10 years, certainly 20. TfGM's strategy is for basically the whole local rail network to be Metrolinked give or take the bits that have too much long distance traffic.

 

[py_megapixel]

I would be amazed if a third city crossing (probably a Den Haag-esque Tramtunnel) was not built within 10 years, certainly 20. TfGM's strategy is for basically the whole local rail network to be Metrolinked give or take the bits that have too much long distance traffic.

Do they actually want to Metrolink it, or just take over the heavy rail services?

To be fair, Metrolink has a lot more in common with an S-bahn than what you might traditionally describe as a tramway.

 

[daodao]

I would be amazed if a third city crossing (probably a Den Haag-esque Tramtunnel) was not built within 10 years, certainly 20.

I would be amazed if a third city crossing is built within 10 years, or even 20, if it is planned to be underground.

The obvious next Metrolink conversion is that of the ex-GC lines to the south-east of Manchester, and they can be linked to the existing services from Bury and Altrincham that terminate at Piccadilly without the need for any surface or underground construction in the city centre. These would effectively be "spend-to-save" conversions of existing expensive-to-run heavy rail lines (and in the case of the Rose Hill line, of poor quality).

If there are any funds for further capital investment by the Westminster government in light rail services, then it would be preferable to allocate them to anywhere but Manchester, which has had more than its fair share of such funds already. Such government funds as exist for urban rail development would be better spent in conurbations such as the West Midlands with more sympathetic regional mayors than the insolent Burnham.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do they actually want to Metrolink it, or just take over the heavy rail services?

I believe their strategy is very much towards Metrolink. If they were OK with trains, why would Metrolink to Hadfield (already an electrified heavy rail route) be proposed?

To be fair, Metrolink has a lot more in common with an S-bahn than what you might traditionally describe as a tramway.

In German terms they'd call it a "Stadtbahn", which would otherwise be known as a "pre-metro", which is essentially a light rail metro with street running because they haven't segregated it yet. In terms of the "letters" they are usually given the U classification.

An S-bahn is a heavy rail metro. Merseyrail is a good UK example of one of these, though they do vary a bit*, and there's a reasonable chance that a number of the local services through Manchester Piccadilly and Victoria would also get this designation.

* Hamburg's S4, for example, was used for years for the half-hourly classic (loco and 4-5 Silberling coaches) diesel service from Hbf to Ahrensburg, though is no longer given that classification.

 

[Purple Orange]

I would be amazed if a third city crossing (probably a Den Haag-esque Tramtunnel) was not built within 10 years, certainly 20. TfGM's strategy is for basically the whole local rail network to be Metrolinked give or take the bits that have too much long distance traffic.

There are three infrastructure proposals for metrolink in Central Manchester:

1. A new Piccadilly metrolink station and a Piccadilly East metrolink station, as a part of the HS2 plans.
2. A new line in to the city centre from Salford Crescent to accommodate Wigan via Atherton, Eccles and Media City services.
3. An underground metro tunnel.

These three items are a part of the TfGM 2040 strategy and so it all needs to be considered in this context.

In my opinion, the underground line is unlikely. I think it is more likely that the GM Rail concept will take on a 4 tph heavy rail stopping service on the CLC to the Airport by the time 2040 rolls around.

 

[tbtc]

I think that we'd be better discussing lines that are relatively "stand alone" with a fairly uniform pattern of passenger services and no freight rather than fixating on the unusual circumstances of the Warrington Central route, given that they could be converted with relatively minimum fuss, rather than all of the complications of these Warrington Central proposals (tunnel under Manchester etc)

think you're having a mare with NRE

I think that the issue is that NRE has been set up to give you a time to the "main" station if you just select "Manchester Stations" rather than specifying Oxford Road

Similarly, if you select a train from western Scotland/ Fife to "Edinburgh Statins" then (AFAICR) it'll give you a time to Waverley even though it'll stop at Haymarket on the way in

It makes sense that it'll prioritise the main city centre station if the train stops there, hence suggesting the Piccadilly time for the EMR service rather than the Oxford Road time (even though it obviously stops there first)

 

[Purple Orange]

I think that we'd be better discussing lines that are relatively "stand alone" with a fairly uniform pattern of passenger services and no freight rather than fixating on the unusual circumstances of the Warrington Central route, given that they could be converted with relatively minimum fuss, rather than all of the complications of these Warrington Central proposals (tunnel under Manchester etc)

Agreed. As a concept, it certainly seems that most would prefer the light rail network as opposed to the ‘traditional’ heavy rail frequency that needs to fit in with freight and long distance at some point on the journey.