New Defence Pact between the UK, USA and Australia

[brad465]

Still trying to understand what Boris expects to gain from this.

A short-term positive headline that holds up his popularity enough to get him to next week, before he has to find something else to hold things up.

 

[AlterEgo]

Absolutely. Good to see Biden taking a stand against China - Trump's attempts were laughable at best!

No they weren’t - he was the only president to have the balls to start trying to reverse the trend of America’s industrial base being stripped away and outsourced to the Chinese. Incidentally that was marginally more important than getting Australia to build some proper submarines.

 

[bb21]

I'm not sure it does though. If those contracts were already held by your previous ally, who was threatening massive trade disruption whenever you said something that embarrassed them, and was prepared to launch a barrage of cyber attacks to press home the point, the new ally taking over some of those contracts might not seem such a price to pay.

I'm not quite sure either your Treasury or business leaders would dismiss it so lightly, or try telling that to the lobster fishermen and wine makers. Interestingly I rarely see the Americans on the losing side of these types of transaction. If they truly stood together with their ally, they could have exerted pressure in trade talks with China and, oh I don't know, perhaps not snatch these contracts from the Australians. As I said, money talks. That is politics. There is no forever friend or forever enemy on the world stage, especially so in front of money these days.

You are kidding yourself if you think America's in it for any other reason than its own interests, and to reassert its authority on the world stage following Trump's antics. If it requires ditching an ally somewhere down the line, it will do exactly that. Afghanistan is your latest in a long line of examples. The effect is then felt by other allies nearby, India for example in this case.

To think Biden is tough on China rather than his actions being efforts at pacifying more extreme voices in the Capitol is more than just naive. American and Chinese economies are so intertwined these days massively antagonising each other will just result in a lose-lose situation, which is why successive US governments have always talked the talk but very rarely walked the walk. Biden is no different. While we are all happily sitting here rejoicing the latest development, Biden's team are (not so) secretly seeking to reopen trade talks with China, and that is unlikely to work well if he continued to poke them into a reaction. Seems like Australia will likely be the biggest loser again, but hey if that upholds the moral high ground for them then who am I to criticise.

 

[AlterEgo]

We've got some bridge building to do.

That's for sure !

No we absolutely do not. We don’t owe France anything.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Sep 2021 ==



That I agree with.

The rest I don't.

You can bet your life if the French had a francophone former colony the size and influence of Australia they’d be leveraging that and then some.

 

[Sm5]

No we absolutely do not. We don’t owe France anything.

You can bet your life if the French had a francophone former colony the size and influence of Australia they’d be leveraging that and then some.

Canada ? .. they still have 2 islands as French inside Canadian Territory too…
St Pierre and Miquelon.

As for recalling Ambassadors, Macrons problem is suddenly a lot of politicians at home and abroad now smirking at him… he’s been totally flat footed, French media is having a fiesta ontop of a flambe right now.

elections come in 6 months… his opponents have seen the Christmas Turkey arrive early and start naievely start gobbling the ground in front of the chef.

lefigaro is calling it his Indopacific Trafalgar

Sous-marins : Biden torpille le «contrat du siècle» entre la France et l'Australie, les leçons d'un Trafalgar indopacifique

ANALYSE - Le nouveau pacte entre les États-Unis, l'Australie et le Royaume-Uni pour contrer la Chine signe l'avènement d'une logique de blocs en Asie-Pacifique, et marginalise l'Europe et la France dans la région clé du XXIe siècle.

www.lefigaro.fr

There will be a break clause and France will get something, but France -US relations are always interesting.. Aside of the gulf war, dont forget the Mistral ships to Russia were questioned by the US back in 2010 and following the Crimea invasion France walked on the deal and sold them to Egypt.

I wonder if Taiwan will get the French sub contract instead ? George Bush promised them back in 2004, but had no means of supplying diesel subs (no US Manufacturer) and its been a political football since… Having France supply Australias diesel subs to Taiwan closes that issue and gets further increased presence in the pacific too… though it means the French also upsetting China.
France -Taiwan relations are strong, I came across strong french presence when I was working there.

 

[AlterEgo]

Canada ? .. they still have 2 islands as French inside Canadian Territory too…
St Pierre and Miquelon.

Remind me who the head of state of Canada is and whether French Canada keeps bringing up secession.

 

[brad465]

No they weren’t - he was the only president to have the balls to start trying to reverse the trend of America’s industrial base being stripped away and outsourced to the Chinese. Incidentally that was marginally more important than getting Australia to build some proper submarines.

It would be nice to see some of our own politicians doing the same here, but if anything our lot just keep lapping up to them. Cameron certainly did by enabling the Chinese to have a stake in Hinkley Point (along with the French as it happens), and, while I'm not sure how far this got, I recall Johnson considering getting the Chinese in on HS2 to get it built faster after early 2020 approval. Okay we have tried to get citizenship for Hong Kong residents in light of problems there, but we are certainly still as much reliant on outsourced Chinese manufacturing as the US and other Western states are.

 

[hst43102]

No they weren’t - he was the only president to have the balls to start trying to reverse the trend of America’s industrial base being stripped away and outsourced to the Chinese. Incidentally that was marginally more important than getting Australia to build some proper submarines.

Not too sure about that. It certainly looked like a very sloppy and foolish way of trying to achieve that and probably hurt American businesses more than it hurt the Chinese.

 

[AlterEgo]

Not too sure about that. It certainly looked like a very sloppy and foolish way of trying to achieve that and probably hurt American businesses more than it hurt the Chinese.

National security isn’t free.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not quite sure either your Treasury or business leaders would dismiss it so lightly, or try telling that to the lobster fishermen and wine makers. Interestingly I rarely see the Americans on the losing side of these types of transaction. If they truly stood together with their ally, they could have exerted pressure in trade talks with China and, oh I don't know, perhaps not snatch these contracts from the Australians. As I said, money talks. That is politics. There is no forever friend or forever enemy on the world stage, especially so in front of money these days.

You are kidding yourself if you think America's in it for any other reason than its own interests, and to reassert its authority on the world stage following Trump's antics. If it requires ditching an ally somewhere down the line, it will do exactly that. Afghanistan is your latest in a long line of examples. The effect is then felt by other allies nearby, India for example in this case.

To think Biden is tough on China rather than his actions being efforts at pacifying more extreme voices in the Capitol is more than just naive. American and Chinese economies are so intertwined these days massively antagonising each other will just result in a lose-lose situation, which is why successive US governments have always talked the talk but very rarely walked the walk. Biden is no different. While we are all happily sitting here rejoicing the latest development, Biden's team are (not so) secretly seeking to reopen trade talks with China, and that is unlikely to work well if he continued to poke them into a reaction. Seems like Australia will likely be the biggest loser again, but hey if that upholds the moral high ground for them then who am I to criticise.

Even if you take away the politics, the Chinese manufacturing capability is so big that anyone who gets too close will lose. They will lose their manufacturing capabilities and become dependant. China was able to play that side of things down for many years when it was diplomatically quiet, but with new belligerent China at the fore, people are noticing.

Everyone knows that America, like any sensible country will look after its own interests. However Beijing has ensured that pretty much any relationship that Australia might conceivably have with the USA or the wider West, couldn't be any worse than the one it has with Communist China now.

 

[Typhoon]

I mean I think the French toys have exited the pram at such velocity as to no longer even be in the same room anymore!

France has recalled its ambassadors to the Unites States and Australia in a backlash over a new security partnership.

French presidential election just over 6 months away, Macron just overtaken Le Pen in the polls for the first time this year*. I bet he's annoyed.


* - strictly speaking she's undertaken him, his vote is a pretty steady 24%, her vote has dropped off.

Source:POLITICO Poll of Polls — French polls, trends and election news for France – POLITICO

 

[Scotrail314209]

Ultimately what do we think is going to come of this? I do think the West should be cautious when it comes to testing China, nobody wants a full blown war.

But I do feel Taiwan may become a battleground of sorts, given China conducting exercises in their airspace and with the US being an ally to Taiwan.

It’s an interesting if not slightly scary (for me at least) development.

 

[yorksrob]

Ultimately what do we think is going to come of this? I do think the West should be cautious when it comes to testing China, nobody wants a full blown war.

But I do feel Taiwan may become a battleground of sorts, given China conducting exercises in their airspace and with the US being an ally to Taiwan.

It’s an interesting if not slightly scary (for me at least) development.

It's problematic, but the commitment to Taiwan isn't isn't of the "attack on one is an attack on all" in the same way that NATO is. We still don't even recognise Taiwan properly as a state currently.

If anything, the new agreement further embeds Australia in the Western military system and should help it to brush off China's increasingly belligerent actions towards it .

 

[Scotrail314209]

It's problematic, but the commitment to Taiwan isn't isn't of the "attack on one is an attack on all" in the same way that NATO is. We still don't even recognise Taiwan properly as a state currently.

If anything, the new agreement further embeds Australia in the Western military system and should help it to brush off China's increasingly belligerent actions towards it .

Very true.

I should probably stop reading what the likes of Owen Jones is tweeting about a new cold war, as are tons of other columnists. You’d think theyd want a blasted war.

 

[ainsworth74]

You know, whilst Taiwan is perhaps the most obvious target of any Chinese aggression I'm not sure it's actually the most likely. Taiwan is dangerous for China. Undoubtedly the PLAN have the capability to land sufficient forces to take the island particularly considering the PLAF forces which will be able to range over the islands. Meanwhile any US forces and possible Korean and Japanese forces will basically be having to fight their way into what will likely be Chinese held waters and land (not wishing to sell the Taiwanese willingness and ability to fight short but it'd be heavy going for them to hold off Chinese forces for very long). But, it's still risky. And if they lose that may well bring down the whole regime if it goes sufficiently poorly. But that would be a big move to invade or at least attack Taiwan.

If I was China and I wanted to basically announce myself on the world stage I'd get into a conflict with Vietnam. China has territorial disputes with Vietnam therefore it's easy to find a pretext but more importantly who does Vietnam call asking for help? Vietnam doesn't have much in the way of alliances and doesn't have much in the way of countries that would be willing to throw down with China in their defence. Vietnam, for my money, is in some respects the more likely target of Chinese aggression. Were they to decide to take such a course of action.

 

[Scotrail314209]

You know, whilst Taiwan is perhaps the most obvious target of any Chinese aggression I'm not sure it's actually the most likely. Taiwan is dangerous for China. Undoubtedly the PLAN have the capability to land sufficient forces to take the island particularly considering the PLAF forces which will be able to range over the islands. Meanwhile any US forces and possible Korean and Japanese forces will basically be having to fight their way into what will likely be Chinese held waters and land (not wishing to sell the Taiwanese willingness and ability to fight short but it'd be heavy going for them to hold off Chinese forces for very long). But, it's still risky. And if they lose that may well bring down the whole regime if it goes sufficiently poorly. But that would be a big move to invade or at least attack Taiwan.

If I was China and I wanted to basically announce myself on the world stage I'd get into a conflict with Vietnam. China has territorial disputes with Vietnam therefore it's easy to find a pretext but more importantly who does Vietnam call asking for help? Vietnam doesn't have much in the way of alliances and doesn't have much in the way of countries that would be willing to throw down with China in their defence. Vietnam, for my money, is in some respects the more likely target of Chinese aggression. Were they to decide to take such a course of action.

In a way, the whole thing with China and Taiwan reminds me of the years old issue between the United States and Cuba, with the back and forth between and the accusations towards the US of being cruel towards the people of Cuba.

It does show, countries may have different values but there are always similarities, especially with the superpowers.

 

[bb21]

Ultimately what do we think is going to come of this? I do think the West should be cautious when it comes to testing China, nobody wants a full blown war.

But I do feel Taiwan may become a battleground of sorts, given China conducting exercises in their airspace and with the US being an ally to Taiwan.

It’s an interesting if not slightly scary (for me at least) development.

Nothing will come of this. The Americans got the money they wanted, and they stepped on French heads on the way there. Whether rumours that the Aussies wanted out of this contract in the first place are true or not, the damage is done and it will look like this is very convenient timing. Scott Morrison scores a few more political points for talking tough on China, and possibly saves some big money in the process. Boris, well, I still struggle to think what Boris gets out of it, aside from a few high-fives from within an echo chamber (but I note the suggestion upthread about possibly preparing a way out should Scottish independence become reality).

Intelligence sharing is already taking place anyway. You don't need a pact to do that. The pact will not change any dynamic in the Asia Pacific region.

The Republic of China-People's Republic issue (for Taiwan is the name of an island, not a country) is one that has no mutually acceptable solution forthcoming as things currently stand, so no one will want to rock the boat too much, and that includes the Americans. In the extremely unlikely event of a full invasion (unless the former seeks formal independence, which the US will not allow), see Crimea for an example of what will happen by way of reactions, but I highly doubt it will come to that. It is a cruel, cruel world, and when it comes to the crunch, it is every man for himself, as the whole shenanigan around Covid vaccines aptly demonstrated to the whole world. Don't blame African countries for pivoting towards China. Outside strategic considerations, western governments don't give a damn about poorer countries.

I find it amusing that a lot of westerners seem to think counteracting the Chinese Communist Party with conflict and threats is going to work. They clearly do not understand how the country evolved over 5000 years. I can't really decide whether that is the result of heavily biased portrayal in much of the western "free" media or a superiority complex to put it more bluntly. The change will need to come from within, and that is not something which can be rushed in 30 years. It will take a couple of generations, and the best way to achieve that is to be as open as possible to enable their people to see and feel the advantages of a free democratic society. Unfortunately shutting the doors to Chinese students, for example, by the one and only Mr Trump, is going to dial that progress back many years, and if truth be told, the island of Taiwan is doing a marvellous job at demonstrating to everyone how democracy should not be implemented.

 

[daodao]

Must admit I'm slightly tickled that they don't appear to have recalled our ambassador (yet!). Not sure whether that's intended as a slight ("the British aren't actually important to this deal so we won't recall the ambassador from them!") or whether it's a sign that our relationship with the French is solid enough to withstand such arguments!

I suspect it is because the French don't expect more honourable behaviour from Perfidious Albion (or Bojo), whereas they did from the USA and Australia.

 

[AlterEgo]

Very true.

I should probably stop reading what the likes of Owen Jones is tweeting about a new cold war, as are tons of other columnists. You’d think theyd want a blasted war.

Owen Jones just likes to pretend China is very benign.

 

[yorksrob]

Nothing will come of this. The Americans got the money they wanted, and they stepped on French heads on the way there. Whether rumours that the Aussies wanted out of this contract in the first place are true or not, the damage is done and it will look like this is very convenient timing. Scott Morrison scores a few more political points for talking tough on China, and possibly saves some big money in the process. Boris, well, I still struggle to think what Boris gets out of it, aside from a few high-fives from within an echo chamber (but I note the suggestion upthread about possibly preparing a way out should Scottish independence become reality).

Intelligence sharing is already taking place anyway. You don't need a pact to do that. The pact will not change any dynamic in the Asia Pacific region.

The Republic of China-People's Republic issue (for Taiwan is the name of an island, not a country) is one that has no mutually acceptable solution forthcoming as things currently stand, so no one will want to rock the boat too much, and that includes the Americans. In the extremely unlikely event of a full invasion (unless the former seeks formal independence, which the US will not allow), see Crimea for an example of what will happen by way of reactions, but I highly doubt it will come to that. It is a cruel, cruel world, and when it comes to the crunch, it is every man for himself, as the whole shenanigan around Covid vaccines aptly demonstrated to the whole world. Don't blame African countries for pivoting towards China. Outside strategic considerations, western governments don't give a damn about poorer countries.

I find it amusing that a lot of westerners seem to think counteracting the Chinese Communist Party with conflict and threats is going to work. They clearly do not understand how the country evolved over 5000 years. I can't really decide whether that is the result of heavily biased portrayal in much of the western "free" media or a superiority complex to put it more bluntly. The change will need to come from within, and that is not something which can be rushed in 30 years. It will take a couple of generations, and the best way to achieve that is to be as open as possible to enable their people to see and feel the advantages of a free democratic society. Unfortunately shutting the doors to Chinese students, for example, by the one and only Mr Trump, is going to dial that progress back many years, and if truth be told, the island of Taiwan is doing a marvellous job at demonstrating to everyone how democracy should not be implemented.

And as Communist China is finding out, there are limits to what it can achieve through applying bully-boy tactics to Western countries such as Australia.

In the meantime, "being as open as possible to allow people to see the advantages of a free and open society" shouldn't entail rolling over and giving Xi Xing Ping everything he wants, or kowtowing to Communist China's sensibilities everytime it embarrasses itself, as with the latest viral outbreak.

 

[fourtytwo]

IMOP the French boats were simply not capable of dealing with the technology the Chinese either have or soon will in there missile boats. The solution is the best hunter killers available and at the moment that's the UK Astute class and USA Virginia class, both very stealthy with high performance passive sonars.

 

[43096]

I suspect it is because the French don't expect more honourable behaviour from Perfidious Albion (or Bojo), whereas they did from the USA and Australia.

Somewhat ironic if that is the case: it's not like the French have always been honourable, is it?

The whole point of a nation is to protect itself and do what's in its own best interests. If the Aussies have come to the conclusion that what's best for them is the Aukus agreement and the France deal wasn't what they now needed, then who can blame them for binning off the French.

 

[birchesgreen]

Thats true no one can blame them but then again no one can blame the French for not being happy about the loss of the contract, if it was the other way around i suspect we'd be a bit miffed too.

But it'll blow over of course.

 

[AlterEgo]

Somewhat ironic if that is the case: it's not like the French have always been honourable, is it?

The whole point of a nation is to protect itself and do what's in its own best interests. If the Aussies have come to the conclusion that what's best for them is the Aukus agreement and the France deal wasn't what they now needed, then who can blame them for binning off the French.

Well quite.

France and the EU have, rightly or wrongly, treated the UK as a political adversary for several years. None of us can feel terribly good at the latest episode of UK-US military cooperation in Afghanistan, but the reality is the US is transforming its military policy towards maintaining a balance of power rather than hegemony. The EU meanwhile is doing very little of use by comparison.

Nuts to France. One of the few countries more full of woe and insecurity than we are, and if the shoe were on the other foot you'd have the forum full of people bemoaning the stupidity of our leaders.

 

[brad465]

When criticising France/any other country, I think we should bear in mind the following: "We have more in common with the citizens of any other country in the world than any group of citizens has with its respective Governments."

What I mean here is, by all means criticise another regime, such as the French Government/regime, but to criticise a country as a whole is to attack that country's citizen's who have little or no control/involvement in whatever was decided by its respective regime, as well as those citizens having more in common with us than we think.

 

[Cowley]

When criticising France/any other country, I think we should bear in mind the following: "We have more in common with the citizens of any other country in the world than any group of citizens has with its respective Governments."

What I mean here is, by all means criticise another regime, such as the French Government/regime, but to criticise a country as a whole is to attack that country's citizen's who have little or no control/involvement in whatever was decided by its respective regime, as well as those citizens having more in common with us than we think.

I think that’s a fair comment actually Brad.

 

[Falcon1200]

Whatever type of submarine Australia eventually gets, I hope they are better built and managed than 'Vigil' as currently portrayed on the BBC.....

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Boris, well, I still struggle to think what Boris gets out of it, aside from a few high-fives from within an echo chamber (but I note the suggestion upthread about possibly preparing a way out should Scottish independence become reality).

Does there have to be something Boris gets personally out of it? Couldn't it be a case of, genuine concern about China and a desire to defend democracy?

(Actually if you are looking for a self-interest motivation, I would imagine Tory Brexiters will be thinking they can use this as an argument for claiming that Brexit was a success in terms of enabling us to develop new alliances).

 

[nlogax]

Does there have to be something Boris gets personally out of it? Couldn't it be a case of, genuine concern about China and a desire to defend democracy?

Some, sure. Standard 'a little from column A, little from column B' situation.

 

[johncrossley]

If you are not safe unless the country you live in has nuclear submarines, what are people in small countries (which could never hope to afford a nuclear submarine) supposed to do?