HS2: London - Birmingham - Manchester

[cle]

Manchester might grow to 4 tph to London, even to Birmingham too, but that would be on HS2 rather than the WCML. Basically if the capacity at the HS2 stations at those three cities exists due to the eastern branch not being built, I suspect that over time we will see their frequency grow. As an example, today Leeds to Manchester has 4 fast services running at about 50 mins plus a number of slower services. Post HS2, Birmingham to Manchester will be faster than Leeds to Manchester is today and if the capacity is there I see no reason why frequencies between thise two cities wouldnt be on a par with Leeds-Manc today.

I think there is just much less demand from Manchester to Birmingham than to Leeds overall. They're just not as connected.

4tph WCML to Manchester was once looked at, would have made it 2tph from Wilmslow, also Crewe and probably Stafford and/or TV. But not needed for London-Manchester alone. So it's aggregate demand, which HS2 (captive especially) doesn't do so well. Hence my suggestion of rejoining the trad lines a little sooner to soak up some other journey pairs and demand.

Maybe in time it will all be viable. Would seem for now that we don't need as much stock (or OOC platforms!) - for now.

 

[Glenn1969]

I think there is just much less demand from Manchester to Birmingham than to Leeds overall. They're just not as connected.

4tph WCML to Manchester was once looked at, would have made it 2tph from Wilmslow, also Crewe and probably Stafford and/or TV. But not needed for London-Manchester alone. So it's aggregate demand, which HS2 (captive especially) doesn't do so well. Hence my suggestion of rejoining the trad lines a little sooner to soak up some other journey pairs and demand.

Maybe in time it will all be viable. Would seem for now that we don't need as much stock (or OOC platforms!) - for now.

I think HS2 will grow demand on all sectors by making rail more competitive on journey times against the car

 

[quantinghome]

I think HS2 will grow demand on all sectors by making rail more competitive on journey times against the car

Yes, and given that the road-based alternative for Manchester-Birmingham is the M6, then a 40 minute rail journey has got to be on to a winner. They're the 2nd and 3rd largest conurbations in the country so you'd expect significant flows once the journey time is down to under an hour.

 

[Purple Orange]

I think there is just much less demand from Manchester to Birmingham than to Leeds overall. They're just not as connected.

4tph WCML to Manchester was once looked at, would have made it 2tph from Wilmslow, also Crewe and probably Stafford and/or TV. But not needed for London-Manchester alone. So it's aggregate demand, which HS2 (captive especially) doesn't do so well. Hence my suggestion of rejoining the trad lines a little sooner to soak up some other journey pairs and demand.

Maybe in time it will all be viable. Would seem for now that we don't need as much stock (or OOC platforms!) - for now.

Yeah im not saying from day 1 of operation. Frequency would grow incrementally and as others have said the conpetitor would be the M6, which today is a strong competitor with the train (both at least 90 mins between Brum and Manc). At 40 minutes and much larger cities than Leeds, I think we will certainly see the 4 tph between all three. Even current plans includes a 4th growth path between London & Manc.

 

[MattRat]

Well, if NPR is built to Leeds and York, and maybe Sheffield, that's some routes HS2 trains could go on if there is indeed spare capacity. Obviously, it may conflict with normal services, but it's better than nothing.

 

[mmh]

Most arriving passengers aren't connecting, so hardly worth the tail wagging the dog.

The vast majority of long-distance passengers arriving at Euston *are* connecting. You only have to witness how few walk out of the door compared to go down to the Underground.

 

[Bald Rick]

The vast majority of long-distance passengers arriving at Euston *are* connecting. You only have to witness how few walk out of the door compared to go down to the Underground.

They *all* walk out the door. Some of course then turn round and back in the next door to head to LU.

 

[EllieAquitrain]

Eurostar is only a little part of it. South Eastern Highspeed serve the entire south coast.

Er... what?!

 

[Purple Orange]

The vast majority of long-distance passengers arriving at Euston *are* connecting. You only have to witness how few walk out of the door compared to go down to the Underground.

They *all* walk out the door. Some of course then turn round and back in the next door to head to LU.

Connecting to another transport mode will be key to most HS2 stations. I expect for many passengers going to the City it will be better to connect at OOC than Euston, (unless you specifically need the city branch of the Northern Line). In Manchester & Birmingham, significant numbers will need to transfer back on to other heavy rail or tram routes.

 

[cle]

I bet you 50x “connect” to Oxford Circus than to Paris, Brussels, Margate and Ashford combined.

It’s still just going to London

 

[Purple Orange]

I bet you 50x “connect” to Oxford Circus than to Paris, Brussels, Margate and Ashford combined.

It’s still just going to London

Possibly higher than 50x, but where many people interchange will have shifted due to crossrail. Most people coming in to London switch from heavy rail to underground, often with a change of tube line being needed. Canary Wharf and significant parts of central London become more accessible from OOC than it will be from Euston.

 

[Ianno87]

The vast majority of long-distance passengers arriving at Euston *are* connecting. You only have to witness how few walk out of the door compared to go down to the Underground.

I meant connecting with HS1, which is only a minority of Euston arrivals. Most just want onward connections within London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The vast majority of long-distance passengers arriving at Euston *are* connecting. You only have to witness how few walk out of the door compared to go down to the Underground.

To the Tube, yes. Not to Eurostar or HS1 domestics.

 

[cle]

I meant connecting with HS1, which is only a minority of Euston arrivals. Most just want onward connections within London.

That’s my point too. Tube. Walk. Bus.

I don’t think many are going to the KXSP complex, let alone The Kent Coast (which is not “The South Coast”!)

 

[JKF]

Yes, and given that the road-based alternative for Manchester-Birmingham is the M6, then a 40 minute rail journey has got to be on to a winner. They're the 2nd and 3rd largest conurbations in the country so you'd expect significant flows once the journey time is down to under an hour.

Journey times like that make all kinds of leisure journeys attractive - shopping, nights out etc. Neither would be currently attractive with 3hrs+ of travel involved.

 

[Purple Orange]

Journey times like that make all kinds of leisure journeys attractive - shopping, nights out etc. Neither would be currently attractive with 3hrs+ of travel involved.

I’d argue that there is significant gains to be made between Birmingham & Manchester due to HS2. In fact I’d say that Birmingham and Manchester will become more important to each other than Leeds & Manchester.