New Defence Pact between the UK, USA and Australia

[JamesT]

Has China gone to war anywhere recently? They’re not a war making people. They’re nouveau-imperialists, and they’re bad, but it’s not Cold War 2. It’s something else.

Not quite got as far as war, but there have been some border skirmishes between China and India in the last couple of years.

 

[birchesgreen]

China also invaded Vietnam in 1979.

More recently lots of aggression against Filpino fishing boats, including a few sunk. Regular border skirmishes against India. But no they are not a warlike people.

 

[hst43102]

Show up,pay bribes to locals to gain influence, start construction, take over the resource and defend it as theirs.

No need for armed conflict unless someone tries to push them off ”their” lands.

That construction force mentality is why infrastructure projects move so fast, the barriers are simply pushed aside.

That's pretty much the same approach that the British did in the 1700s/1800s. I think it's probably inevitable that colonization will happen again, but with a communist flavour this time.

 

[Sm5]

That's pretty much the same approach that the British did in the 1700s/1800s. I think it's probably inevitable that colonization will happen again, but with a communist flavour this time.

The British presence in China in the 1850’s were certainly not ships full of farmers, but it was about trading a pungent form of farm produce.

one of the more informative museums Ive ever visited is the Hong Kong History museum, but of course it was built by the British as a parting gift in 1997… History there maybe subject to revision, like the PLA plaque added to the pilar in Bauhinia Sq after the Handover, giving a slightly different narrative of events.

Thing is people have memories, students my age when I was there now have children listening to their parents.. its confusing for the young, born after c1990, since 1997 Hong Kong has thrived far more than it ever were before 1997… but basic freedoms/ laws are changing taking away norms what they were used to, such as saying what you really think…can now land you in jail… your right to complaining about your MP and voting them out is actually going to disappear..and you could actually disappear if you disagree with your local district council.. slowly its creeping up on a new generation to realise the life of their parents is actually an egg timer draining away…

 

[colchesterken]

I think we have made many wrong decisions since the war on the basis of short term benefit
we should have struggled to maintain our manufacturing base, the whole economy is in the hands of "the money people"
We only bolt together things for foreign companies, My first car was a Hillman
As this is a train site look at railways, on you tube there is a vid of locos being loaded on a boat at Liverpool bound for Spain
where do we get trains from now?
As to the extent of Chinese investment that has been allowed in the UK, and the fact that they are out manufacturing base
What if the west wanted to put sanctions on China?. We are dependant on a nation which many see as our biggest threat
Hong Kong, Human Rights Etc, we should never have allowed it to happen

 

[yorksrob]

I think we have made many wrong decisions since the war on the basis of short term benefit
we should have struggled to maintain our manufacturing base, the whole economy is in the hands of "the money people"
We only bolt together things for foreign companies, My first car was a Hillman
As this is a train site look at railways, on you tube there is a vid of locos being loaded on a boat at Liverpool bound for Spain
where do we get trains from now?
As to the extent of Chinese investment that has been allowed in the UK, and the fact that they are out manufacturing base
What if the west wanted to put sanctions on China?. We are dependant on a nation which many see as our biggest threat
Hong Kong, Human Rights Etc, we should never have allowed it to happen

Well quite.

One can have all the submarines in the world, but we (the West) will have to reduce our dependence for manufactured goods in particular on a communist regime, which is committed to exporting authoritarian values around the world, sooner, rather than later.

 

[bb21]

Well quite.

One can have all the submarines in the world, but we (the West) will have to reduce our dependence for manufactured goods in particular on a communist regime, which is committed to exporting authoritarian values around the world, sooner, rather than later.

Good luck with that.

When Australia placed itself right in the middle of the China-USA war of words aligning heavily with the latter a couple of years ago, relations swiftly cooled and USA were the first to swoop in and gulp up the vacated contracts.

Money talks.

Still trying to understand what Boris expects to gain from this.

 

[Sm5]

Well quite.

One can have all the submarines in the world, but we (the West) will have to reduce our dependence for manufactured goods in particular on a communist regime, which is committed to exporting authoritarian values around the world, sooner, rather than later.

Thats about the size of it.

2021’s Opium is foreign trade. The Chinese cant get enough of it. Trouble is they proportionally dont buy very much. They just hang on to our currency.
When we reign in spending, they just invest internally in development…

remember they are not hunters, but farmers.. 5000 years of history, they were doing exactly the same today back when Pharoahs were building pyramids… take the long road, cultivate and make profit, dont squander but reinvest.

Until we find something that China has to buy and address the trade inbalance, every decade we’ll need to turn on the printing press to address it and devalue our currencies. Only the Trump trade war reduced that gap, but then Covids put it right back again.

Weve been here before in the Mid East, buying Arabic oil, but then regional security was an issue and selling big ticket military was a way of balancing the books.., especially as they had a tendency to use them…they are big style hunters.

Selling Arms to China isn’t exactly the solution here… and if we did, they would copy / sell it rather than use it… farming DNA, again cultivating a product for mass production and profit not using it as a tool for hunting advantage.

Eventually Inflation here, and overdevelopment there will erode Chinese competitiveness… Bad Harvest… Thats when China might try to eat itself, or its neighbours… thats when you need your Subs.

 

[Cowley]

Still trying to understand what Boris expects to gain from this.

I do wonder if there’s something going on here related to casting around for a long term future base for our nuclear fleet eventually, with an eye on what may happen if Scotland eventually achieve independence?
If the SNP stick to their plan of wanting rid of the subs and associated base at Faslane within 5 years of Scotland becoming independent then there really are very few (if any) options around the rest of the UK.

 

[birchesgreen]

I do wonder if there’s something going on here related to casting around for a long term future base for our nuclear fleet eventually, with an eye on what may happen if Scotland eventually achieve independence?
If the SNP stick to their plan of wanting rid of the subs and associated base at Faslane within 5 years of Scotland becoming independent then there really are very few (if any) options around the rest of the UK.

Well annoying France isn't a good move here.

 

[yorksrob]

Good luck with that.

When Australia placed itself right in the middle of the China-USA war of words aligning heavily with the latter a couple of years ago, relations swiftly cooled and USA were the first to swoop in and gulp up the vacated contracts.

Money talks.

Still trying to understand what Boris expects to gain from this.

Ultimately, Australia has experienced the effects of an overdependence on Beijing for trade over the last couple of years, and it's not something any Western nation would want to experience. Other countries have been taking note.

Thats about the size of it.

2021’s Opium is foreign trade. The Chinese cant get enough of it. Trouble is they proportionally dont buy very much. They just hang on to our currency.
When we reign in spending, they just invest internally in development.

Until we find something that China has to buy and address the trade inbalance, every decade we’ll need to turn on the printing press to address it and devalue our currencies. Only the Trump trade war reduced that gap, but then Covids put it right back again.

Weve been here before in the Mid East, buying Arabic oil, but then regional security was an issue and selling big ticket military was a way of balancing the books.., especially as they had a tendency to use them. Selling Arms to China isn’t exactly the solution here… and of we did, they would copy / sell it rather than use it.

Eventually Inflation here, and overdevelopment there will erode Chinese competitiveness… Thats when China might try to eat itself, or its neighbours… thats when you need your subs.

Eventually China should become wealthy enough that someone else will provide the exports and it's power will wane. Will it happen quickly enough to prevent state authoritarianism becoming entrenched as a dominant form of government though.

 

[Cowley]

Well annoying France isn't a good move here.

Well yes, although we seem to have done a fair amount of annoying our nearest neighbours of late.

 

[yorksrob]

Well annoying France isn't a good move here.

Agreed. It seems that the nuclear propulsion technology ultimately was the deciding factor.

 

[bb21]

Ultimately, Australia has experienced the effects of an overdependence on Beijing for trade over the last couple of years, and it's not something any Western nation would want to experience. Other countries have been taking note.

Kind of, but the strategy falls through when the biggest ally then swoops in and takes over all the contracts. All you are left with is Australia being sold down the river and handing over money hand over fist to their supposed ally.

Henry Kissinger is proven time and again to be correct.

I seriously doubt this pact is UK-led, so we should have thought very carefully what we are going to get out of it, especially when it antagonises our most significant near neighbour.

 

[Cowley]

Agreed. It seems that the nuclear propulsion technology ultimately was the deciding factor.

Yes I do agree and I wasn’t hinting that Australia were about to receive a fleet of 4 UK submarines with spicy missiles.
I just wonder what’s going on in the background with this situation and who we (well this current government) see as our future allies?

 

[yorksrob]

Kind of, but the strategy falls through when the biggest ally then swoops in and takes over all the contracts. All you are left with is Australia being sold down the river and handing over money hand over fist to their supposed ally.

Henry Kissinger is proven time and again to be correct.

I seriously doubt this pact is UK-led, so we should have thought very carefully what we are going to get out of it, especially when it antagonises our most significant near neighbour.

I'm not sure it does though. If those contracts were already held by your previous ally, who was threatening massive trade disruption whenever you said something that embarrassed them, and was prepared to launch a barrage of cyber attacks to press home the point, the new ally taking over some of those contracts might not seem such a price to pay.

 

[Gloster]

I think that the main thing is to try and make friends in ‘global Britain’s tilt towards the Indo-Pacific’ (Boris Johnson, 16 September 2021). The hope is that it will improve our trade relations with countries and bring jobs to this country, as we wreck our relationships with our long-standing trade partners as...

Well annoying France isn't a good move here.

...annoying France is always a popular move with some sections of the electorate, even if it is a self-destructive one.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes I do agree and I wasn’t hinting that Australia were about to receive a fleet of 4 UK submarines with spicy missiles.
I just wonder what’s going on in the background with this situation and who we (well this current government) see as our future allies?

I like the spicy missiles idea !

Our future allies will be the same they've been for the past sixty years. America, Europe, the democratic Commonwealth and other Western minded countries.

 

[Sm5]

Well annoying France isn't a good move here.

Its very easy to annoy france.
Indeed its very hard not to annoy France.

They will get over it, they sell arms to anyone… a lot of arms, this was a small deal in their big picture overall.

if anything its the EU thats put out of place.. They were hoping to be the US’s trusted arm. The problem is the EU isnt a military project and the US has squashed them… No ones talking about the EUs pivot to Asia, and their last defence strategy relied heavily on Britains participation in the EU to host that EU strategy…The revision is due today, see below, and now its pretty much based on Frances global prowess, which was just publically humiliated… the EUs own military pivot to asia is nothing more than protecting fishing in the South China Sea, whilst recognising Chinas military spend grew from 20-29% of the regions total.

https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/jointcommunication_2021_24_1_en.pdf

Given the US’s position on the NATO countries shirking their funding, this message from Biden to the EU could well have been a lightening bolt pointing that out that funding gap Leads to the US not taking the EU seriously on military politics, if its NATO members arent themselves taking military matters seriously…

 

[Gostav]

Thats when China might try to eat itself, or its neighbours…

I don't think they try to eat them, they just want to build their own backyard such as Central America in USA, West Africa in France. If they can intervene in these neighbours like USA (in the name of human rights, democracy, infrastructure built or anything), ensure that their main industries are controlled by Chinese so when product in China no longer cheap, they will still have space of long term development. Of course, to achieve that, only have a world's largest green-water navy is not enough, they need a real blue-water navy for operation globally.

 

[yorksrob]

Its very easy to annoy france.
Indeed its very hard not to annoy France.

They will get over it, they sell arms to anyone… a lot of arms, this was a small deal in their big picture overall.

if anything its the EU thats put out of place.. They were hoping to be the US’s trusted arm. The problem is the EU isnt a military project and the US has squashed them… No ones talking about the EUs pivot to Asia, and their last defence strategy relied heavily on Britains participation in the EU to host that EU strategy…The revision is due today, see below, and now its pretty much based on Frances global prowess, which was just publically humiliated… the EUs own military pivot to asia is nothing more than protecting fishing in the South China Sea, whilst recognising Chinas military spend grew from 20-29% of the regions total.

https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/jointcommunication_2021_24_1_en.pdf

Given the US’s position on the NATO countries shirking their funding, this message from Biden to the EU could well have been a lightening bolt pointing that out that funding gap Leads to the US not taking the EU seriously on military politics, if its NATO members arent themselves taking military matters seriously…

I wouldn't interpret it so negatively.

I'd say that compared to most of the second half of the twentieth century, Europe doesn't need massive US military commitment. It is stable and more than capable economically of keeping Putin at bay. (When talking of Europe, I of course include the UK as we're as much part of Europe in terms of defence) Why would the US concentrate it's attention on Europe ?

 

[Sm5]

I wouldn't interpret it so negatively.

I'd say that compared to most of the second half of the twentieth century, Europe doesn't need massive US military commitment. It is stable and more than capable economically of keeping Putin at bay. (When talking of Europe, I of course include the UK as we're as much part of Europe in terms of defence) Why would the US concentrate it's attention on Europe ?

I agree, the US doesnt need to be in Europe, but the US doesnt need the EU, in Asia either.

The EU as you say is stable in itself, it doesnt need outside intervention in European defence.
However the EU is wanting to increase its global projection, beyond Europe.
The EUs problem is to in order to be a credible salesman and project globally, you need to be able back that up with EU product..and it doesnt have it.

Todays EU pivot to Asia backup plan was a rather meagre remit to protect fishing in the South China Sea… the US needs much more commitment than that.

In a crisis, in Asia, could the US rely on the EU 27 countries to vote unanimously to agree who’s troops to commit, how much each country could fund and which nations equipment to use, and overcome 27 different languages in combat situations in a unified command situation to work with America and Australia in a matter of hours ?
not a chance…
they would all be arguing for a share of the pot for construction / logistics contracts and defering someone elses troops to be the one to put their lives on the line… it’d be a prolonged decision making process that could cost american lives whilst waiting.

This is the EUs failing, its a political not a military construct. Only money will build an EU army, but loyalty will always be to a country and an EU armed intervention decision will be a collective nation vote… I actually have doubts an EU force would be much more effective than the Afghan army in an invasion situation.

The only winners in an EU armed force will be the French who could stand up a force, and gain huge military resources funded by the EU and provided by French/German companies with a few minority Italian/Spanish stakes Paid for collectively by the 27.

Frontex is already showing this weakness, which I assume is why Boris agreed it and not Spain, for Gibraltar.

As non of that yet exists and will take decades for an EU decision to build it, the US hasnt got time to wait.

The US knows if it needed to call on military resources in Europe, the answer is 27 phone calls, not 1 to Brussels… Afghanistan showed that.. the “EU” played no part.. it was individual nations… the US chose a deal with the UK, not the EU with Australia because of this weakness.

The EU was never in the running, but It could have been the French instead of the UK, but ultimately they were pushed out, as its also a competitive sale for Hardware to Australia it was getting in the way of a bigger business Plan.

Theres one clue in this that suggests to me its more posture than substance.. when was the last time a CEO did a $50bn deal and met publically with the customer CEO who this deal had been negotiated with.. and yet still not know his name.

 

[yorksrob]

This is true. Militarily, loyalty comes down to the nation state. Decisions come down to it as well.

 

[ainsworth74]

I mean I think the French toys have exited the pram at such velocity as to no longer even be in the same room anymore!

France has recalled its ambassadors to the Unites States and Australia in a backlash over a new security partnership.

The country's foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian made the announcement following the deal between the UK, US and Australia - which aims to help Australia obtain nuclear-powered submarines.

Mr Le Drian said in a statement that the decision, on request from President Emmanuel Macron, "is justified by the exceptional seriousness of the announcements" made by the two countries.

France to recall ambassadors in US and Australia after AUKUS submarine deal snub

On Wednesday, the UK, US and Australia announced they will establish a security partnership called AUKUS that will help Australia get nuclear-powered submarines.

news.sky.com

Must admit I'm slightly tickled that they don't appear to have recalled our ambassador (yet!). Not sure whether that's intended as a slight ("the British aren't actually important to this deal so we won't recall the ambassador from them!") or whether it's a sign that our relationship with the French is solid enough to withstand such arguments!

 

[AlterEgo]

France deserve to be annoyed. This sort of stunt is the sort of thing they pull regularly and are probably especially peeved they didn’t think of it first.

France is also regularly embarrassed it doesn’t have any large francophone allies or ex colonies it can call on like we can with Australia.

No, I’m good with annoying France. They’re at least as perfidious as we are.

 

[yorksrob]

I mean I think the French toys have exited the pram at such velocity as to no longer even be in the same room anymore!

France to recall ambassadors in US and Australia after AUKUS submarine deal snub

On Wednesday, the UK, US and Australia announced they will establish a security partnership called AUKUS that will help Australia get nuclear-powered submarines.

news.sky.com

Must admit I'm slightly tickled that they don't appear to have recalled our ambassador (yet!). Not sure whether that's intended as a slight ("the British aren't actually important to this deal so we won't recall the ambassador from them!") or whether it's a sign that our relationship with the French is solid enough to withstand such arguments!

We've got some bridge building to do.

That's for sure !

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Sep 2021 ==

They’re at least as perfidious as we are.

That I agree with.

The rest I don't.

 

[hst43102]

France deserve to be annoyed. This sort of stunt is the sort of thing they pull regularly and are probably especially peeved they didn’t think of it first.

France is also regularly embarrassed it doesn’t have any large francophone allies or ex colonies it can call on like we can with Australia.

No, I’m good with annoying France. They’re at least as perfidious as we are.

No. If anything, we probably need to be on better terms with France due to the channel situation at the moment.

That being said, I strongly think that the world (and the EU in particular) need to be much firmer with China before it's too late.

 

[yorksrob]

We're looking at it in somewhat parochial terms, but fundamentally this represents a firm commitment of the United States to the security of the region.

After the uncertainty of the last few years, this strikes me as very good news indeed.

 

[hst43102]

We're looking at it in somewhat parochial terms, but fundamentally this represents a firm commitment of the United States to the security of the region.

After the uncertainty of the last few years, this strikes me as very good news indeed.

Absolutely. Good to see Biden taking a stand against China - Trump's attempts were laughable at best!

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely. Good to see Biden taking a stand against China - Trump's attempts were laughable at best!

Indeed. Biden is expressiñg some authority, which we need from the US