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Could/should HS2 Western leg be shelved?

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Ianno87

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HS2 only got permission to be built from parliament and royal assent with the term "Full Y-shaped network" applied, as far as I am concerned, HS2 ltd are in breach of contract, and planning permission if they build the network without the Eastern Leg.

Each Phase of HS2 has a business case that stands on its own merit, and does not require subsequent Phases to be built in order to stand up (but the Bills will describe how future phases are supported).

E.g. Phase 1 as an entity has a business case.
Phase 2a has a business case as an extension of Phase 1
Etc.
 
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Bald Rick

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Regardless of what happens, Phase 1/2a will be in operation before 2b is built. I would hope any problems would already be worked out for during that interim period.

Well of course Phase 1/2a will be in operation before Phase 2b is built (ie completed). As other wise it would all be Phase 1.

However Phase 2b will be well under construction by the time Phase 1/2a are in operation. It’s possible, even probable, that the main Civils will be finished.



HS2 only got permission to be built from parliament and royal assent with the term "Full Y-shaped network" applied, as far as I am concerned, HS2 ltd are in breach of contract, and planning permission if they build the network without the Eastern Leg.

Not so. Firstly there is no ‘contract’ to be in breach of. Secondly, the Consent to build HS2 is covered in two Acts of Parliament:

High Speed Rail (London-West Midlands) Act 2017
High Speed Rail (West Midlands-Crewe) Act 2021

Both permit the construction of the sections of line concerned. Neither require it, nor rely on the construction of any future phases.
 

MattRat

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So in conclusion, the western leg needs to be built. Close thread.
It's not just as simple as that. If either the Eastern leg or the Western leg were to be cancelled, what would you pick? That is after all one of the reasons I made the thread, as a possible way to save the Eastern leg.
 

snowball

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It's not just as simple as that. If either the Eastern leg or the Western leg were to be cancelled, what would you pick? That is after all one of the reasons I made the thread, as a possible way to save the Eastern leg.
Given that phase 2a (which is west only) is now fully authorised and physical work on site can legally start, and that the government has said it will soon introduce the bill for the western side of phase 2b, and that design is apparently not sufficiently advanced for a bill to be introduced any time soon for any part of the eastern arm, I think we can conclude that the western arm has won.
 

The Ham

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People band around the term "White Elephant" on anything that doesn't make (in some cases) very ambitious passenger forecasts

Using that definition, unless there's some very long term impacts from Covid on passenger numbers, HS2 is fairly unlikely to be a White Elephant for much beyond 2040.

As pre Covid passenger numbers on the London to West Midlands/North West/Scotland flows had already surpassed those expected at the opening of Phase 1.

Opening of Phase 1 was expected to be 155 for every 100 in 2009.

2019 saw 175 for every 100 in 2009.

Opening of Phase 2 was expected to be 200 for every 100 in 2009.

Even allowing for a 40% fall in rail use due to Covid, between now and 2036 there would need to be annual growth of 4.4%, or 3.45% by 2040.

However if that fall is 20% the growth would only need to be 2.41% year on year to 2036 or 1.85% to 2040.
 

Purple Orange

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It's not just as simple as that. If either the Eastern leg or the Western leg were to be cancelled, what would you pick? That is after all one of the reasons I made the thread, as a possible way to save the Eastern leg.
I’d pick the western leg to be built, if only one can be built.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Given that phase 2a (which is west only) is now fully authorised and physical work on site can legally start, and that the government has said it will soon introduce the bill for the western side of phase 2b, and that design is apparently not sufficiently advanced for a bill to be introduced any time soon for any part of the eastern arm, I think we can conclude that the western arm has won.
This
 

HSTEd

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If we are talking about sacrificing trackwork for the benefit of other trackwork, and the eastern leg is lost, I would suggest sacrificing the Wigan branch for trackwork in East Manchester to allow trains from Leeds to reach Manchester Picadilly HS2 platforms more rapidly.
 

NoRoute

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Build all of it. The trouble with this country and major infrastructure investment is no one has the will to deliver a project in full.

No, the trouble comes from the inability to accurately estimate the costs of major projects and deliver them at anything near the original forecast.

The will evaporates because the project has been mis-sold, it cannot deliver what it promised for anywhere near the cost it claimed. As the costs escalate people quite reasonably start to ask whether the project represents good value for money and whether there are better alternatives for the money.
 

irish_rail

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So in conclusion, the western leg needs to be built. Close thread.
Not so sure. The countries broke. Brexit is going to damage the country for many years to come. People aren't getting payrises yet taxes and cost of living are shooting up. People aren't going to tolerate a project that to your man on the street isn't seen as needed and isn't popular. Frankly the whole thing needs scrapping but I imagine its too late to bin the first bit.
 

The Planner

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Not so sure. The countries broke. Brexit is going to damage the country for many years to come. People aren't getting payrises yet taxes and cost of living are shooting up. People aren't going to tolerate a project that to your man on the street isn't seen as needed and isn't popular. Frankly the whole thing needs scrapping but I imagine its too late to bin the first bit.
We have done this one a hundred times before, but considering we are still using 175 year old infrastructure, why do people only look at the next 5-10 years when it comes to HS2?
 

Purple Orange

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Not so sure. The countries broke. Brexit is going to damage the country for many years to come. People aren't getting payrises yet taxes and cost of living are shooting up. People aren't going to tolerate a project that to your man on the street isn't seen as needed and isn't popular. Frankly the whole thing needs scrapping but I imagine its too late to bin the first bit.
The country is not 'broke'. That is a soundbite created by the right wing to make people think we need to stop spending money on public services and infrastructure. That isnt how government finances work and investing now to create an asset to last several centuries will benefit the country in spades. You invest capital in to infrastructure to increase econonic output and thus increasing tax reciepts to spend on day to day sercixes like education and the health service.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We have done this one a hundred times before, but considering we are still using 175 year old infrastructure, why do people only look at the next 5-10 years when it comes to HS2?
Exactly. I happen to have set off on my journey to london today about an hour ago. On HS2 I'd be arriving in Euston about now. Instead my train is in the counreyside somewhere north of birmingham.
 
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Grumpy Git

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The key to understanding HS2 is understanding that its main purpose is *not* getting people to the Midlands and North quicker - that is just a happy coincidence.

So why the fixation with the uber high-speed and the cost implications this brings as opposed to say 150mph? Is it "willy-waving" on the part of those in charge?
 

Purple Orange

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So why the fixation with the uber high-speed and the cost implications this brings as opposed to say 150mph? Is it "willy-waving" on the part of those in charge?
Actually it is about imoroving times from Manc to Brum too. The train does not compete very well with the car on that journey and reducing journey times from 90 mins to 40 mins will be a huge bonus, bringing two city regions of 3 million much closer together.
 

Grumpy Git

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Actually it is about imoroving times from Manc to Brum too. The train does not compete very well with the car on that journey and reducing journey times from 90 mins to 40 mins will be a huge bonus, bringing two city regions of 3 million much closer together.

But it is only 90 miles, so a 40 minute journey does not need a 200+ mph train.
 

MattRat

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The countries broke. Brexit is going to damage the country for many years to come.
The country is not 'broke'. That is a soundbite created by the right wing to make people think we need to stop spending money on public services and infrastructure.
Did you just call a remainer right wing? I've seen it all now.
But it is only 90 miles, so a 40 minute journey does not need a 200+ mph train.
You underestimate how slow it is to get into and out of cities. The 200+ speed is to compensate for that and keep average speeds high.
 

The Planner

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But it is only 90 miles, so a 40 minute journey does not need a 200+ mph train.
Which currently takes 96 minutes on average, with an average speed of 56mph which has little scope of being increased. If you can get a higher speed out of HS2 for a reasonable outlay because the trace allows it, why wouldn't you? An hours reduction is a game changer.
 

Purple Orange

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Did you just call a remainer right wing? I've seen it all now.
No, I said the soundbite has been created by the right wing to convince people that we should be reducing government spending, when that fails to work. Remainers can also be right wing, just look at all those tories who were purged by Johnson.
 

Bald Rick

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So why the fixation with the uber high-speed and the cost implications this brings as opposed to say 150mph? Is it "willy-waving" on the part of those in charge?

because the cost difference from (say) 150mph and 200mph is essentially negligible.
 

HSTEd

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But it is only 90 miles, so a 40 minute journey does not need a 200+ mph train.

Savings of several minutes doesn't sound like a lot until you realise how much money is spent elsewhere in the system to achieve those savings.

The line should be built to the highest possible speed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Did you just call a remainer right wing? I've seen it all now.

Right wing remainers do exist?
Just as left wing Brexiteers do exist?
 

irish_rail

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No, I said the soundbite has been created by the right wing to convince people that we should be reducing government spending, when that fails to work. Remainers can also be right wing, just look at all those tories who were purged by Johnson.
I am most definitely not right wing.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We have done this one a hundred times before, but considering we are still using 175 year old infrastructure, why do people only look at the next 5-10 years when it comes to HS2?
OK, seeing as we are looking to the long term future why the assumption that places like Birmingham and Manchester will continue to grow at such a fast rate?
The evidence now is pointing to people wanting to live a more rural existence and many are deserting the characterless largest cities such as London, Brum, and Manchester in favour of smaller cities, towns and the countryside. If anything, id argue going forward the real growth will be on routes to rural Wales, the South west and probably Scotland.
Yet even the mention of raising the linespeed west of Newton Abbot to Plymouth and Cornwall above the current pathetic 60mph and its in the "too expensive pile ".
 

JamesT

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I was under the impression that HS2 had gone for a higher speed than was considered 'normal' high speed?

Not especially. HS2 is being planned for rolling stock that can do 360kph maximum, but generally running at 320kph allowing some headroom for trains to make up time.
European high speed railways generally have a top speed of 320kph but they're older so were working with what the technology allowed at the time. The Chinese are running in service at 350kph.
As a comparison, the world record on steel rails is currently almost 575kph, so we're not anywhere close to the bleeding edge.
 

snowball

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If we are talking about sacrificing trackwork for the benefit of other trackwork, and the eastern leg is lost, I would suggest sacrificing the Wigan branch for trackwork in East Manchester to allow trains from Leeds to reach Manchester Picadilly HS2 platforms more rapidly.
Such a link is believed to be part of NPR. The latest alterations to HS2 phase 2b include stubs for a junction near Piccadlly.

The line to Wigan is not a branch, it's the main line. The line to Manchester is a branch, just as the line to Curzon Street is a branch.
 

daodao

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....

However, I'd like to get other people's opinions on the matter. What do you think about shelving the Western Leg of HS2?

Edit: By Western leg, I mean the Phase 2b section from Crewe to Manchester.
Yes, it should be shelved north of Crewe.
 

Purple Orange

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Such a link is believed to be part of NPR. The latest alterations to HS2 phase 2b include stubs for a junction near Piccadlly.

The line to Wigan is not a branch, it's the main line. The line to Manchester is a branch, just as the line to Curzon Street is a branch.
Is the line to Wigan really the mainline? On the WCML that might be true, but this isnt the WCML here. Its a high speed line between London, Manchester and Birmingham. I'd say Wigan is the branchline back to the WCML.
 

Bald Rick

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Is the line to Wigan really the mainline? On the WCML that might be true, but this isnt the WCML here. Its a high speed line between London, Manchester and Birmingham. I'd say Wigan is the branchline back to the WCML.

The route to Wigan is the mainline, as confirmed by the planning drawings. The route to Manchester is a ‘spur’.

3CFA21D2-5689-451F-B4D6-97237127E79A.jpeg
 

Starmill

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It's exceptionally popular in British culture to go around calling things 'White Elephants' or describing them as a waste of money for no reason at all beyond that you personally find some small element of them objectionable.
 

snowball

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Is the line to Wigan really the mainline? On the WCML that might be true, but this isnt the WCML here. Its a high speed line between London, Manchester and Birmingham. I'd say Wigan is the branchline back to the WCML.
I don't know the design speeds or radii at the junction but the line towards Wigan is straight or nearly so, while the line towards Manchester is a relatively tight curve through about 90 degrees.

Same on the eastern arm - towards Leeds is a relatively tight curve, and towards Church Fenton is straighter.

The map posted by Bald Rick is not the latest - there is now due to be a 3-level structure in place of the 2-level one, to accommodate also the up NPR line from Liverpool towards Crewe, but the alignments towards Wigan and Manchester are unchanged or nearly so.
 
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