When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[SuspectUsual]

The chart on this BBC report showing how much extra tax you pay at different salary levels looks pretty progressive to me - someone earning £20K pays an extra £130/year, while someone on £100K pays an extra £1130 - ten times the extra tax for five times the extra salary.

The person on £20k will pay 6.3% in NI; the person on £100k will pay 5.9%. It’s still a rubbish tax that disproportionately favours the well off

 

[Butts]

The person on £20k will pay 6.3% in NI; the person on £100k will pay 5.9%. It’s still a rubbish tax that disproportionately favours the well off

Not in absolute terms which is in the end is the most important figure with regard to revenue raising.

The problem is everyone is in favour of raising taxes for the NHS/Social Care as long as they don't have to contribute themselves - it's always those earning more than them that should pay

 

[SuspectUsual]

Not in absolute terms which is in the end is the most important figure with regard to revenue raising.

The problem is everyone is in favour of raising taxes for the NHS/Social Care as long as they don't have to contribute themselves - it's always those earning more than them that should pay

It might be the most important figure from the point of view of those raising the revenue but I can guarantee you it isn’t the most important from the point of view of those funding it. Income tax is the way it is for a (good) reason. NI needs to follow suit

 

[bb21]

The chart on this BBC report showing how much extra tax you pay at different salary levels looks pretty progressive to me - someone earning £20K pays an extra £130/year, while someone on £100K pays an extra £1130 - ten times the extra tax for five times the extra salary. Also, no-one seems to be pointing out that dividend tax is also going up by the same amount. Having said that, I would have preferred an increase in income tax rather than NI.

Can someone earning £20k a year afford to lose £130?

 

[Butts]

It might be the most important figure from the point of view of those raising the revenue but I can guarantee you it isn’t the most important from the point of view of those funding it. Income tax is the way it is for a (good) reason. NI needs to follow suit

Perhaps they should have whacked VAT up instead as most "essential" items are zero rated - food et al.

Whatever tax you raise someone is going to complain about it.

Most people on here are to young to remember when tax rises were a regular feature of Budgets , and a lot more painful than 1.25% !!

 

[Butts]

Can someone earning £20k a year afford to lose £130?

Depends on their individual circumstances, but living at home with parents - yes.

 

[Typhoon]

But will it translate into ballot box tickets though?

He is not Teflon for no reason.

A lot of those voters might not bother voting at all - that doesn't hurt the Tories as much as if they switch to Labour, but it still hurts a bit.

I'm not certain that it is the ballot box that should be Johnson's biggest concern.

If Sir Graham Brady and his fellow men in grey suits come to call, he may be in trouble, The Conservative Party are not a particularly forgiving bunch. Johnson's policies are hardly typical Tory ones, the signs were there when he was Mayor of London that he was a spender; the retreat from Afghanistan and the cabinet row that followed looks bad - it won't affect voters but it will probably affect MPs as will Johnson's reluctance to sack the inept; the Covid Recovery Group cannot be happy with the plans for a vaccine passport and will be even less happy if things go wrong in the autumn and winter; the debate over the funding of social care on this thread will make little difference, because as @Butts says

The problem is everyone is in favour of raising taxes for the NHS/Social Care as long as they don't have to contribute themselves - it's always those earning more than them that should pay *

Any rise in taxes is unwelcome, but there will be those who have just managed to get on 'the property ladder' as prices have risen by taking out the largest mortgage they can (currently) afford. Add on to that increasing fuel and food prices, mortgage rates can only go up as will council tax. I don't think it will be just those on £20k who are going to be finding life tough.
MPs will hear these rumblings in their constituencies and take them back to Westminster, where he won't get much sympathy from the 'remoaners' who he took the whip from or removed from the cabinet nor from May loyalists who didn't like the way Johnson went about undermining her; also Red Wall Tories may start to feel that the 'Levelling Up' agenda is little more than words and those in the suburbs may start to hear mention of 'Chesham' and 'Amersham'.

Loads of 'if's, 'but's and 'maybe's but Johnson could be encouraged to spend more time with his family and an almost certainly very lucrative book contract rather that face the indignity of a 'no confidence' motion when Labour, Lib Dem and SNP will be joined by the DUP alongside dissident Tories.

* - I disagree slightly, they are prepared to pay more but not as much as they are being asked to pay.

 

[wireforever]

The vote is today I am expecting the white flag tories(formally the red wall tories)to vote with the Govt.The extra money is going to clear the NHS backlog and what is left to social care funding.The vote is due 7pm today will there be another protest vote if the next by election is in a safe tory seat perhaps Hancock will resign

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

.More money is spent/allocated to helping the migrants who cross the channel than on social care or have the figures been misquoted by the media outlets?

What figures have been given? Adult Social care is over £20 billion

 

[Class 466]

Two years without a pay rise, but the cost of living has gone up and now tax too. At least I can say I didn't vote for this I guess.

 

[DarloRich]

it is being reported today that Gavin Williamson confused footballer Marcus Rashford with rugby player Maro Itoje. I mean they are both young black men. It is so easily done! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58490809

BBC:
Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has admitted making a "mistake" when he confused footballer Marcus Rashford with rugby player Maro Itoje.

The Evening Standard newspaper quoted Williamson as saying he had enjoyed a Zoom discussion with England and Manchester United's Rashford.

But an aide later clarified that it had actually been with Itoje.

 

[birchesgreen]

Well the Tories seem to have lost my Mum's vote, she was a life-long Tory but "never again".

Though as she lives in a rock solid safe Labour seat it doesn't really make any difference...

 

[Dai Corner]

Well the Tories seem to have lost my Mum's vote, she was a life-long Tory but "never again".

Though as she lives in a rock solid safe Labour seat it doesn't really make any difference...

Conversely, my Mum (83) has voted Lib Dem for decades but her views are becoming more and more Conservative.

Again, it won't make any difference as she's in a rock-solid Tory constituency!

 

[Revilo]

Generally as people get older and more experienced they are more likely to vote Conservative.

 

[Ianno87]

Generally as people get older and have increasingly rose tinted glasses and less likelihood of having to live with the future consequences of present day decisions they are more likely to vote Conservative.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Revilo]

They are more likely to have children and grandchildren and therefore to care about the consequences of their decisions. Their age means they can therefore see through the woke lefty ideology that their younger selves may have fallen for.

 

[Ianno87]

They are more likely to have children and grandchildren and therefore to care about the consequences of their decisions.

They really don't. Parents voting to take away actual rights from their children and grandchildren.

Their age means they can therefore see through the woke lefty ideology that their younger selves may have fallen for.

What ideology is that exactly?

 

[Revilo]

Which rights are we talking about?

 

[Typhoon]

Generally as people get older and more experienced they are more likely to vote Conservative.

As an older person who lives in an area largely inhabited by older people I would say that 'Generally as people get older they are more reluctant to accept change'. That has traditionally meant voting Conservative (the clue being in the name), whether the current government fits the bill, I'm not so certain. However there are enough on the government backbenches who do.

They are more likely to have children and grandchildren and therefore to care about the consequences of their decisions. Their age means they can therefore see through the woke lefty ideology that their younger selves may have fallen for.

So how will they feel when they realise that their children and grand children are going to pay higher taxes (or NI) to pay for their care but more importantly the care of those richer than them? The majority of my close relatives who are working (ages from early twenties to late forties) are on minimum wage or not a great deal more, certainly nowhere near average wage, nevertheless most of these count as key workers. OK their care may be capped in 20 to 40 years time but I'm not so certain they are looking that far ahead.

 

[seagull]

""Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."

This maxim – variously attributed to Winston Churchill, Benjamin Disraeli and Victor Hugo, among others – neatly captures the common notion that to be on the left of the political spectrum is to be young and idealistic, while to be on the right is to be older and more pragmatic.

Evidence suggests that this is probably not due to “social ageing” (getting married, having children or an increasing income), but rather to the direct psychological processes of ageing that tend to make people more resistant to change. This, in turn, makes people gravitate towards parties that defend the status quo."

The above from a Guardian comment piece: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

I'm not entirely sure that I would attribute "defending the status quo" to the Tories, which is why I think we don't really have a true conservative party in this country.

 

[yorksrob]

which is why I think we don't really have a true conservative party in this country.

We haven't had since they hitched their colours to the wagon of market liberalism.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm not entirely sure that I would attribute "defending the status quo" to the Tories, which is why I think we don't really have a true conservative party in this country.

I wonder if an issue here is that there are two senses of 'conservative' in UK Politics:

1. Conservative = tending to defend the status quo, wanting any change to be slow and gradual.
2. Conservative = supporting the market economy, individual responsibility and small Government (actually strongly related to classical liberalism as a philosophy).

The UK Conservative party has traditionally embraced both those senses to some extent, but up until the time of Margaret Thatcher, it was the sense of defending the status quo that dominated. Mrs. Thatcher decisively shifted the party in favour of the market economy, and was very happy to tear up the status quo in order to achieve that. I would say that from then until Boris Johnson came along, the Conservatives remained largely in that mould, although with much less campaigning zeal than Mrs. Thatcher had. Boris has somewhat thrown a spanner into it all by combining a belief in free markets and private enterprise with support for big Government and big Government spending - two ideas that don't play well together. It all does seem to be creating anguish amongst many more traditional conservatives who regard conservatism as synonymous with low taxes and small Government.

 

[dgl]

Generally as people get older and more experienced they are more likely to vote Conservative.

My Gran was never like that as she ad experienced what it was like under conservative governments and so generally voted Lib Dem, it was the same with Brexit, as she had actually experienced WWII she knew that Europe being united could only be a good thing plus clearly could see that there were other benefits that it brought us as well.

 

[Dai Corner]

How many young people facing an increase of a few pounds a week in their National Insurance would tell their grandparents not to worry about spending all their savings and the value of their house to pay for social care if necessary? Or provide the care themselves to help preserve their inheritance?

 

[birchesgreen]

It all does seem to be creating anguish amongst many more traditional conservatives who regard conservatism as synonymous with low taxes and small Government.

We could go into the next election with the two main parties presenting the opposite to the electorate compared to what they did last time. Tories for higher taxes and spending on big ticket items and Labour for the opposite*. It could be fascinating.

* If we ever do come out with any policies that is.

 

[Butts]

We could go into the next election with the two main parties presenting the opposite to the electorate compared to what they did last time. Tories for higher taxes and spending on big ticket items and Labour for the opposite*. It could be fascinating.

* If we ever do come out with any policies that is.

Are the Conservatives the natural party of Government - (In England at least) ?

 

[Typhoon]

I wonder if an issue here is that there are two senses of 'conservative' in UK Politics:

1. Conservative = tending to defend the status quo, wanting any change to be slow and gradual.
2. Conservative = supporting the market economy, individual responsibility and small Government (actually strongly related to classical liberalism as a philosophy).

The UK Conservative party has traditionally embraced both those senses to some extent, but up until the time of Margaret Thatcher, it was the sense of defending the status quo that dominated. Mrs. Thatcher decisively shifted the party in favour of the market economy, and was very happy to tear up the status quo in order to achieve that. I would say that from then until Boris Johnson came along, the Conservatives remained largely in that mould, although with much less campaigning zeal than Mrs. Thatcher had. Boris has somewhat thrown a spanner into it all by combining a belief in free markets and private enterprise with support for big Government and big Government spending - two ideas that don't play well together. It all does seem to be creating anguish amongst many more traditional conservatives who regard conservatism as synonymous with low taxes and small Government.

This is pretty much spot-on.

Two things I would add are:
Cameron was not in the Thatcher mold, but Osbourne was (is). 'Call me Dave' in some way just wanted to be elected, like Johnson; he was fortunate that he had a Chancellor who he trusted and they were able to make the most of the financial crash which may well have been a whole lot worse in the UK had they been in charge given Osbourne's free market ideas.

Thatcher position in the country improved greatly from the Falklands War*, she was in the political mire beforehand, even though Michael Foot (hardly the most charismatic figure as far as the average voter went) was leader of Labour. I suspect she was able to get a lot of her free market policies through simply because of being 'The Iron Lady' (that and the 'bribes' that Lawson offered voters to buy shares, council houses and the like). Scargill then came along and cemented her in that role.

You are dead right about Johnson, that is why I think his most formidable opponents do not sit opposite him at the Despatch Box but on his right (in more ways than one). He might do well to scan the list of those who didn't vote for the Care Bill.

* - I seem to remember that it was Conservative defence cuts, particularly to the Naval deployment in the South Atlantic, that emboldened Galtieri's government.

 

[yorksrob]

For me, my hope would be that Johnson will lead the Conservatives towards a more "Gaullist", state centered form of conservatism, however the lack of action over company takeovers suggests that the marketeers are still in charge.

 

[DerekC]

For me, my hope would be that Johnson will lead the Conservatives towards a more "Gaullist", state centered form of conservatism, however the lack of action over company takeovers suggests that the marketeers are still in charge.

Johnson isn't going to lead anybody to anything. He doesn't have a political philosophy other than the aggrandisement of himself. He has good political antennae for short term "getting one over" the opposition (whether that's Labour or the Tory grandees), but that's it. Everything else is driven by the need to grab a good headline and shoot a good photo op.

 

[nlogax]

Johnson isn't going to lead anybody to anything. He doesn't have a political philosophy other than the aggrandisement of himself. He has good political antennae for short term "getting one over" the opposition (whether that's Labour or the Tory grandees), but that's it. Everything else is driven by the need to grab a good headline and shoot a good photo op.

While this is true, Johnson possesses a reality distortion field which shields the wider public from all this. That ability to continue climbing political ladders in spite of being a short-sighted, selfish chump should not be underestimated.