They might be cheap bums on seats, but they all help to make the political case for the railway.
I suppose Thameslink is limited because of fixed eight carriage formations.
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How busy have your trains been?
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They might be cheap bums on seats, but they all help to make the political case for the railway.
I suppose Thameslink is limited because of fixed eight carriage formations.
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bramling
Veteran Member
The trouble is these comparatively low-revenue bums just aren’t paying the bills, in the same way that a Thameslink transporting 1,500 people into London every few minutes does.
This isn’t to say that Thameslink trains are still running around empty, they absolutely aren’t, but the commuter peak still hasn’t really recovered in huge numbers.
I’d like to agree on the political case, but unfortunately I’m not sure anyone in positions of power really cares if the Sprinter to Skegness or Whitby is crowded on a Summer Friday.
From a personal view, I fear there’s the danger of a bit of a race to the bottom if a crisis of confidence leads the industry to go down some kind of Megabus route of trying to stuff things full of cheap fares. The sums don’t really add up to make it work, and all it does is devalue the end product. Attracting people out of cars requires some level of quality. My wonderfully civilised empty 387 home after a day out in London yesterday largely succeeded in delivered that (apart from the uncomfortable seats). But when I’m off to Nottingham in a couple of weeks time I’m unlikely to even consider the train as I know it will be a nightmare. Buses already have a stigma to many, I fear trains could go the same way if the primary market becomes transporting bored teenagers around with the odd Jeremy Kyle family sprinkled in for good measure.
I suppose for the time being, the railway has the peak fare system, which will put a lot of people off when the classic commuters are supposed to travel.
DannyMich2018
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Thursday 19th August. Manchester Pic (12.01) to Crewe, Northern Class 319, stopping service via Stockport, fairly quiet, fair few getting on and off at stations along the way. Planned to have lunch in Crewe but struggled to find pub doing lunches. What a depressing place this town is. Station not much better. Such an air of neglect. Glad to get 14.33 to Nuneaton. 8 car 350 lightly loaded but fair few got on at stations on route. Thorough ticket checks on both trains which is good. Nuneaton 16.24 to Hinckley 2 car 170. About just over half full.
deltic
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It is commuter traffic that is unsustainable - huge investments in rolling stock and infrastructure that even before the pandemic was required just for a few hours mid-week carrying people at discounted rates. The growth in public transport use in recent years has been exactly leisure traffic providing decent loads on some routes throughout the day. As Peter Hendy has made clear the future is a railway serving the leisure market.
The teenagers and children using the railway today are the full fare paying passengers of the future and should be encouraged not demonised. Its good that public transport is for everyone and not just for middle class middle aged men in suit.
As things settle down, this could be a good thing for the railway. Work journeys more spread over the course of the day, and on higher fare-per-journey daily or flexi tickets (and possibly commuting longer, but less often)
This x1000. Remember how many people don't use rail regularly today, and how projects like HS2 get public flack as being "just for rich business men" because so many people don't see rail as relevant to them. I think it's about time that rail's market "clique" got shaken up a bit, and recognition that rail's user base has, at times, been a bit of an "old boys club".
bramling
Veteran Member
I'm not demonising it, just making the point that this market doesn't really cover its costs. The teenagers and children won't be filling weekday trains with leisure trips this time next month because they'll be at school, and this year's leisure boom will likewise tail off from September onwards as (1) fewer people are on leave, (2) people return to the workplace, (3) pent-up demand easer, and (4) weather tails off and days get shorter. Then what are we left with?
Planning a recovery based on leisure is very risky because of so many factors, not least the discretionary nature of leisure journeys. They're very sensitive to a range of factors, not least price - jack the price up too much and the journey won't happen, which is not good news for an industry which needs to cover costs.
At the moment I'd be looking to get back those commuters who *are* currently travelling to/from a workplace but are using other means, specifically the car. The way to do that is to offer them reliability, space and comfort. Max out train lengths (which the London & South East area fortunately has the infrastructure to do), reduce the number of services running in order to trim staff costs, and try and sort the current issues with reliability.
bramling
Veteran Member
I'm not sure "old boys club" is the right diagnosis. In my experience it's the baby-boom generation who are more likely not to use trains. Certainly in my town there are many who would use trains for a London journey (simply because it really is generally the most viable option), but if you suggested using a train for any other local or long-distance journey they would laugh at you.
Young people don't seem to subscribe to the stigmas, but by the same token many will be taking driving lessons not long after they cease being eligible for child fares.
trainophile
Established Member
I'm a baby boomer and wouldn't travel any other way than via rail. The roads are horrendous these days, I have a driving licence but am not in the least inclined to venture any distance by road.
I think there is a distorted view of rail depending on which area of the UK you live in, those down south are spoilt with the sheer volume and availability of trains, they do not need to spend hours poring over websites or timetables and sorting out affordable connections to where they want to go. Those of us living in areas with a predominance of hourly services have to do their homework!
Back in Victorian times the rail was largely aimed at the (generally well-heeled) leisure market. Hence all the stations at coastal resorts. Yes there is a market for business travel which needs to continue to be serviced, but I believe leisure is the way forward, as business becomes more home based with the rapid improvements in technology. Leisure travellers are perhaps more concerned about things like getting a seat as they are travelling further, and speaking for myself I would be prepared to pay a bit more for a comfortable journey with all the facilities you might expect. All intercity routes should be reservations available, although I wouldn't advocate reservations compulsory as if you're only going one stop as a walk-up passenger you probably aren't too bothered.
I think there is a distorted view of rail depending on which area of the UK you live in, those down south are spoilt with the sheer volume and availability of trains, they do not need to spend hours poring over websites or timetables and sorting out affordable connections to where they want to go. Those of us living in areas with a predominance of hourly services have to do their homework!
Back in Victorian times the rail was largely aimed at the (generally well-heeled) leisure market. Hence all the stations at coastal resorts. Yes there is a market for business travel which needs to continue to be serviced, but I believe leisure is the way forward, as business becomes more home based with the rapid improvements in technology. Leisure travellers are perhaps more concerned about things like getting a seat as they are travelling further, and speaking for myself I would be prepared to pay a bit more for a comfortable journey with all the facilities you might expect. All intercity routes should be reservations available, although I wouldn't advocate reservations compulsory as if you're only going one stop as a walk-up passenger you probably aren't too bothered.
Harold Hill
On Moderation
Only been once and yes, the area around the station looked forlorn. I ended up walking and walking until I came across a big Tesco with a cafe where I had something to eat
Harold Hill
On Moderation
Fossil fuel cars are on the way out, apparently, and electric cars are impractical for long journeys. So, railways are the future, they just have to be supported by the taxpayer until then
Down South also tends to have good offers via the Network card, groupsave etc which we don't have up here.
Suggest you look at the electric car threads elsewhere on these pages. EVs are entirely practical for long journeys.
In any event, only a very small percentage of U.K. rail journeys are long distance (more than 100 miles).
bramling
Veteran Member
Where are all these leisure journeys going to come from? Two weeks from now kids will be back at school, and far fewer people will be taking a form of leave, plus winter is round the corner.
Filling a sprinter here and there isn't going to balance the books.
trainophile
Established Member
We have a bigger retired population than ever before, and the majority of them are comfortably off due to improvements in pension schemes, property values, and people being able to build up savings. You only have to look at the platforms at somewhere like Manchester Piccadilly, almost everyone has a suitcase, and you wouldn't have one of those if you're just popping to the shops.
Many older people prefer to travel in the school holidays.
No they don’t.
Decent little load heading to Rosslare on the Fishguard boat train today, mostly originating in Swansea with a fair few connecting off the ex-Manchester.
Fair load heading back too, with more joining at Fishguard & Goodwick.
Fair load heading back too, with more joining at Fishguard & Goodwick.
Although leisure travel is likely to be boosting things, it should be noted that when compared to previous years rail use has seen an increase (now circa 58%) over the late spring (circa 50%), as that's compared to previous years it's also factoring in the changes in trains for travel to some extent. (Although probably not entirely as some may have more leave during the summer having not taken much earlier in the year).
Whilst there's lots of trains down south, they mostly go to/from London, of you're trying to go across that flow it's often difficult to find suitable services and connections.
I'd also highlight that long distance car travel (+50 miles) is also quite a small percentage of travel. That of course unless you're talking about the suitability of an EV, in which case many appear to drive Exeter to Edinburgh (or longer) every few days.
The fact that the roads are clogged proves how popular they are. The M5 is usually very slow over summer weekends. Surely most people know this but they still sign up for it. Likewise the M4 around Newport. It looks okay today but the eastbound queue often stretches back to Pontprennau, a distance of around seven miles. Cardiff city centre is often as bad as it was pre Covid. The other day I could literally walk faster than the buses. Having said that, most long distance trains in Wales are packed this time of year so no scope for tempting people off the roads. I don't know what the solution is.
bramling
Veteran Member
This is small change compared to work journeys, and volatile for a number of reasons.
My current car has never been more than 40 miles from home. I do have family that live around 175 miles away but recent trips have all been by train. My kids are used to going by train and it has the advantage that I don't need to keep making toilet stops. The biggest down side is having to get the bus to the station but I can usually arrange a lift.
It's the outcome of the being +26% cars yet the population having increased by +17%.
As to how to solve it, there's no simple solution and different areas need different things. However generally making walking/cycling feel safer and reducing rail/bus ticket prices (and sometimes the buses have higher costs due to being stuck in traffic and needing more vehicles running).
Indeed, although mileage driven per car has reduced over the years, and continues to do so.
26% over what period? I recall walking to the station in the 1980s. There might have been around 10 cars parked on the road. Now there's a continuous line of parked vehicles on the pavement along both sides of the road, until the parking restrictions start closer to the station. This leaves a single file route down the middle. Bald Rick's comment partially explains this. More vehicles doing fewer miles means more parked vehicles.
Sorry, since 2000.
As you highlight the big issue with more parked cars is that they then restrict road capacity.
Indeed, however the total number of miles traveled had still increased, as since 2000 car milage traveled has risen by 20% (so a fall on average of 5% per car given the 26% increase in cars).
Indeed, but a 20% increase in vehicle miles matches pretty well with a 17% increase in population.
Spamcan81
Established Member
Caught a Peterborough train at FPK around 17:15 on Tuesday. Very busy with standing in some carriages. Cambridge trains however seemed much less busy with plenty of seats available.
Indeed and I suspect that WFH is likely to impact those numbers going forwards. Potentially lower per car miles again. As to overall car numbers it's possible that there could be a small fall, but only if people start to feel happy using public transport again (which is looking more hopeful, but time will tell), although the other factor is how congested the roads get which then make rail look more attractive.
Road traffic is already close to 100% of pre pandemic levels (with vans and lorries being typically higher and cars still being a little lower), that's likely to mean that most of the growth is off peak. However peak hour travel will be interesting to watch to see what is doing from mid September onwards.
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