Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[JamesT]

A problem has been forgotten by public - "over 80% of the global supply chain of rare earth elements, important minerals for electric vehicles and wind turbine components, is controlled by China." "China controls 51% of the global total of chemical lithium, 62% of chemical cobalt and 100% of spherical graphite — the major components of lithium-ion batteries."
Afghanistan is home to what is believed to be one of the richest reserves of lithium and China would be take control the mining.

Battery vehicles are not just about economic or environment issues, but also about the energy security of the nation.

The problem with statements like that is they're usually based on proven reserves, i.e. what the mining companies have decided is reasonable to dig up at the moment. Despite the name, rare earths are not rare. But they're usually bound up with other elements in rocks.
China are currently willing to do the dirty work and extract things like lithium for a cheap price, so the rest of the world leaves it up to them. We could potentially produce lithium ourselves, there have been news reports about an abundance of it in Cornish brine. But it would cost more so we don't bother. If China becomes problem, then we have another look at the Cornish mines.
It's similar to North Sea Oil. Previously it was considered too harsh an environment to extract oil from sensibly. Then OPEC flexed their muscles in the 70s and we decided that actually exploiting it would be worthwhile.

 

[The Ham]

The problem with statements like that is they're usually based on proven reserves, i.e. what the mining companies have decided is reasonable to dig up at the moment. Despite the name, rare earths are not rare. But they're usually bound up with other elements in rocks.
China are currently willing to do the dirty work and extract things like lithium for a cheap price, so the rest of the world leaves it up to them. We could potentially produce lithium ourselves, there have been news reports about an abundance of it in Cornish brine. But it would cost more so we don't bother. If China becomes problem, then we have another look at the Cornish mines.
It's similar to North Sea Oil. Previously it was considered too harsh an environment to extract oil from sensibly. Then OPEC flexed their muscles in the 70s and we decided that actually exploiting it would be worthwhile.

Indeed, even if we take the fact that no where else produces it then it is also a fact which is out of date (or at least will be):

World’s first battery-grade graphite producer outside of China - pv magazine Global

Australia’s Renascor Resources has confirmed it has raised AUD 15 million ($11.6 million) to fund its Siviour battery anode material project up to the construction phase. The project will be the world’s first integrated mine and purified spherical graphite operation outside of China.

www.pv-magazine.com

Purified spherical graphite is a key component of lithium-ion batteries, which is why a handful of companies across the world are racing to become the first producers outside of China, as the global wave of demand begins begins to peak.

South Australian company Renascor Resources seems to have taken a lead in the race, announcing that it has raised enough to fund its Siviour battery anode material project to the construction phase, which is set to begin in 2022.

i.e. there are reserves elsewhere which just haven't been used to produce it so far.

As Graphite (and whilst not all of it is suitable for making into the material used in batteries) is found in loads of places, as it indicates elsewhere in the article:

The company is sitting on the world’s second-largest proven reserve of graphite and the largest graphite reserve outside of Africa. It says it will be able to create graphite concentrate at among the lowest costs in the world, “competitive with current Chinese production and advantaged over other developments outside of China.” There are a handful of other companies vying to get in early, banking on market appetite for diversifying purified spherical graphite supply chains outside of China. Norway, Sweden and Germany are all in the game, and Australian startup International Graphite is well on its way, too.

 

[Harpers Tate]

And......
When a lithium battery fails, its contents can be recycled. There isn't sufficient volume for this to be economic at the moment. I'd gamble, though, on such an industry developing as a further source of materials as usage of and failure of lithium batteries grows in volume. Possibly in around 10 years as present cars (some of which are already 10 years old) begin to "produce" scrap batteries in sufficient volume.

And.....
If I had to predict: the actual container for stored electricity (battery) may well develop. New chemistries and/or manufacturing techniques will, I feel confident, come. Which will change this picture. Whether it be different elements inside or a whole different approach. Things like this never remain static.

 

[AM9]

A problem has been forgotten by public - "over 80% of the global supply chain of rare earth elements, important minerals for electric vehicles and wind turbine components, is controlled by China." "China controls 51% of the global total of chemical lithium, 62% of chemical cobalt and 100% of spherical graphite — the major components of lithium-ion batteries."
Afghanistan is home to what is believed to be one of the richest reserves of lithium and China would be take control the mining.

Battery vehicles are not just about economic or environment issues, but also about the energy security of the nation.

So perceptions of national interests trump attempting to prevent an unstoppable global climatic disaster. What would you do about personal land transport then?

 

[cactustwirly]

Shop around for the best personal leasing deals.
Lease Loco is a good place to start, as it collates leasing deals from lots of lease providers. A sort of comparison site.

Those cheapest deals are for smaller vehicles and start with the lower spec. models, with the smallest battery capacity in some cases; but they are not much more expensive than small ICE models in terms of personal leasing costs.
That’s before you factor in the lower running costs for an EV.

They’re also brand-new cars and that’s something else to consider if you’re comparing them with a 10 year old ICE car, which has absorbed a large chunk of depreciation and is getting closer to the end of its cost effective lifetime.
That 10 year old car will generally work out a lot cheaper, provided you don’t incur some serious maintenance or repair costs, or have to sell or write it off if it's no longer financially or practically useful.






w

The Corsa E is almost double the price of the ICE equivalent. It's almost as much as a Golf!

Almost £30k is really expensive for an entry level car

 

[Factotum]

Of course it can. Just not concurrently.

True. But every one on the street put their car on charge when they get home - a not unlikely scenario - expect some power cuts.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

No, not at all. Anybody who insists in making heavy demands of energy will be made to pay for it, -

But making a cup of tea at six o'clock is hardly "insisting on making heavy demands of energy". But it will still cost top whack because the tariff is set to punish ev users. Or are the smart meters smart enough to distinguish between mum making a cup of tea and dad charging his car?

 

[Bald Rick]

True. But every one on the street put their car on charge when they get home - a not unlikely scenario - expect some power cuts.

That won’t happen. Firstly - not everyone ‘gets home’ at the same time each day. Some people don’t move their cars for days or weeks on end. Secondly, most people won’t need to charge every time they ‘get home’ - the people I know with EVs typically charge once a week. Thirdly, and this is the crucial point, the nature of charging will eveolve so that even if a lot of people put their cars on at the same time, they won’t all charge at the same time, specifically to manage the network capacity.

 

[BananaRepublic]

That's the biggest load of bollocks I've heard! The Corsa E is almost double the price of the ICE equivalent. It's almost as much as a Golf!

Almost £30k is really expensive for an entry level car

You'll see that I made no mention of the purchase cost.

The post was about personal leasing costs, closing the price differential gap, not about list prices.

Fact, based on offers available today (they change from day to day).

Based on a 4 year personal lease, 8,000 miles pa, with a 12 month payment deposit + 47 monthly payments.
(you can vary the lease term, annual mileage and size of the upfront 1st payment for similar results)

The cheapest deal on an e-Corsa is for an Elite Nav Premium (which is not the cheapest model in the e-Corsa range).
£2,615.47 followed by 47x £201.46 pm

The equivalent trim level petrol model, 1.2L Elite Nav Premium.
£2,587.25 followed by 47x £215.60 pm

The Electric Corsa is cheaper than the petrol version.
The first payment is £28.22 more, but the monthly payments are £14.14 pm cheaper.
A saving of £636.36 over the 4 year term.
That's before you factor in the fuel cost and maintenance savings.

There are cheaper petrol engined Corsa models, which work out a around £30 to £50 a month cheaper than the EV on a personal lease, but note that gap is a lot less than for purchasing the car.
Clue....... residual values.


.

 

[AM9]

But making a cup of tea at six o'clock is hardly "insisting on making heavy demands of energy". But it will still cost top whack because the tariff is set to punish ev users. Or are the smart meters smart enough to distinguish between mum making a cup of tea and dad charging his car?

That statement is a total false equivalence and I think that you know it is. I don't know what you are trying to prove by it.
Boiling a kettle of water is not making heavy demands of energy, it has been recognised as part of the transient load of electricity supplies at least since the spread of TV, and probably radio as well. Since the earliest days of the CEGB, patterns of peak demand have been detected, tracked and used to bring on generator capacity to meet it. In additon to that, the energy required to boil a kettle, - let's say that is a person who doesn't just boil what's needed would be the energy drawn by a typical kettle (2.2kW) for less than 5minutes, i.e 0.183kWH, a typical cost of between 2.75p and 3.6p at current rates. A typical domestic EV charger would be drawing up to 8kW, so that would use 3.64kWH in that same 5 minutes. It would also if unmanaged, continue to do so for maybe 5 hours or more, and with that energy, over 200 kettles could be boiled.
You should also take note of what Bald Rick is saying about EV charging management, just because an impatient driver expects the whole neighbourhood's power to be stressed to (and beyond) it's limits, it doesn't mean that the vehicle will be charged irrespective of other legitimate users. Those that want to get a higher priority will have some tariff options, but they will pay dearly for it. As I said a few posts ago, That's what smart meters are really about.

 

[Gostav]

So perceptions of national interests trump attempting to prevent an unstoppable global climatic disaster. What would you do about personal land transport then?

Trolley bus.

 

[cactustwirly]

You'll see that I made no mention of the purchase cost.

The post was about personal leasing costs, closing the price differential gap, not about list prices.

Fact, based on offers available today (they change from day to day).

Based on a 4 year personal lease, 8,000 miles pa, with a 12 month payment deposit + 47 monthly payments.
(you can vary the lease term, annual mileage and size of the upfront 1st payment for similar results)

The cheapest deal on an e-Corsa is for an Elite Nav Premium (which is not the cheapest model in the e-Corsa range).
£2,615.47 followed by 47x £201.46 pm

The equivalent trim level petrol model, 1.2L Elite Nav Premium.
£2,587.25 followed by 47x £215.60 pm

The Electric Corsa is cheaper than the petrol version.
The first payment is £28.22 more, but the monthly payments are £14.14 pm cheaper.
A saving of £636.36 over the 4 year term.
That's before you factor in the fuel cost and maintenance savings.

There are cheaper petrol engined Corsa models, which work out a around £30 to £50 a month cheaper than the EV on a personal lease, but note that gap is a lot less than for purchasing the car.
Clue....... residual values.


.

But what if you don't want to lease and pay a load of interest? It's still a lot more expensive, and unaffordable for most people.

 

[Bald Rick]

But what if you don't want to lease and pay a load of interest? It's still a lot more expensive, and unaffordable for most people.

Then a brand new EV is not for you at the present time. But it’s fair to say that most private buyers of new vehicles do lease, and that EV prices will fall, and that ICE cars will soon become a minority in the new car market. I give it 4 years.

 

[BananaRepublic]

But what if you don't want to lease and pay a load of interest? It's still a lot more expensive, and unaffordable for most people.

First of all, I question your "most people"?
More than 2 million brand new cars are sold in the UK each year.
Half are to private individuals, paying for the cars themselves, either directly or through some form of finance.
A significant proportion of those cars cost more to buy than the Corsa-e (inc. private purchaser sales).
There are clearly a lot of people able to buy those cars.
Similarly, the used car market is not all about cheap, bargain basement older vehicles.
A significant proportion of used cars being sold each year, still cost more than a brand new supermini sized car (Fiesta, Corsa etc).

That's not to say that there aren't a lot of people who can't afford them.
Obviously a lot of people cannot afford that sort of outlay, but they are not "most people".

On to your main point.
You don't pay interest on a Personal Lease.
Are you confusing it with a PCP (Personal Contract Purchase), which is not the same thing?

Indeed, not everybody wants to lease. Nor is it the best option for some people.
However, personal leasing is growing in popularity.
Sometimes, or often, it works out more expensive than purchasing, even with finance; but conversely it can cost about the same or even slightly cheaper, depending on the circumstances (Car model, deals available, mileage use etc).
The great advantage with a personal lease, is that you don't have to worry, or factor in the residual value at the end of the lease term.
The leasing company have done that and built it into the lease cost and, unlike any purchase finance, it's their risk, not yours.
It may be worth paying a premium (i.e.a slightly higher monthly cost), by choosing a Personal Lease and being able to defer that risk; especially if there is uncertainty about what the car will be worth in future.
Note: As you've effectively rented the car, you just hand it back (subject to condition and mileage being within the T&C's)..

It's not for everyone though.


.

 

[The Ham]

True. But every one on the street put their car on charge when they get home - a not unlikely scenario - expect some power cuts.

Loads of people live within 15 miles of their work, even for a car with 100 miles of range that's only needing to charge every 3 days.

Now whilst there'll be those who need to travel further, I've deliberately picked a fairly low range for the car, so increase that to 170 miles and that's still up to 25 numbers to work and it still only need charging every 3 days (assuming no at work charging or charging elsewhere).

Yes for those who commute 50+ miles each way they will likely be charging every day, however the number who do that are very few in number and so would be unlikely to be more than one person in a street. This is a much likely lower number than the number of retired people who may charge their car from their solar panels during the day.

As such chances are that you'd have to be very unlucky to see the network struggle from cars charging. That's before we see additional upgrades to the network, which may be those who do a lot of miles paying for a 3 phase supply to increase their capacity and in doing so reducing the pressure on the rest of the network.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Corsa E is almost double the price of the ICE equivalent. It's almost as much as a Golf!

Almost £30k is really expensive for an entry level car

New things are always expensive. Remember when a 32" LCD telly was five grand?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

But making a cup of tea at six o'clock is hardly "insisting on making heavy demands of energy". But it will still cost top whack because the tariff is set to punish ev users. Or are the smart meters smart enough to distinguish between mum making a cup of tea and dad charging his car?

It is very likely that smart meters and chargers will be designed to deal with this. It seems quite likely that you'll be able to say you need the car charged up to N per cent by 8am, say, and the charger and smart meter will collaborate, by way of a fancy version of Economy 7, to achieve that at the cheapest price. Or if you want a fast charge now you can, but the price charged will be the current rate which depending on time of day may be much higher.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

But what if you don't want to lease and pay a load of interest? It's still a lot more expensive, and unaffordable for most people.

Within the next 5 years or so, those leased and PCPed vehicles will create a viable used market as exists for ICE cars now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

Trolley bus.

Trolleybuses are public transport, not personal transport, much as they are a good idea.

 

[Bald Rick]

New things are always expensive. Remember when a 32" LCD telly was five grand?

Indeed. In real terms, nearly twice that now.

 

[The Ham]

There's a good few more EV's, (although how much they are more noticeable for to the green numberplate end could be skewing this), a few years ago it wasn't uncommon for my bosses Tesla to be the only EV I saw.

Now it's not uncommon to see 2 or 3 EV's being driven around on may way home from work.

 

[Bald Rick]

There's a good few more EV's, (although how much they are more noticeable for to the green numberplate end could be skewing this), a few years ago it wasn't uncommon for my bosses Tesla to be the only EV I saw.

Now it's not uncommon to see 2 or 3 EV's being driven around on may way home from work.

Battery EVs (BEVs) are approaching 10% of all new car sales, and I suspect will be over 10% by the end of the year (on a monthly basis). Looking at it another way, if you see a car with a 21 plate, nearly 1 in 10 should be a BEV. Around 1% of all cars on the road is now a BEV.

 

[Factotum]

Note: As you've effectively rented the car, you just hand it back (subject to condition and mileage being within the T&C's)..




.

Aye and there's the rub: "subject to condition". There are lots of reports on consumer programmes about people getting a rather large unexpected additional bill when they hand it back. Minor blemishes which wouldn't bother a private buyer are pounced on and charged at a high rate. One friend of mine was surcharged because he returned the car with new Michelin tires rather than the OEM tires.

 

[NoRoute]

But what if you don't want to lease and pay a load of interest? It's still a lot more expensive, and unaffordable for most people.

Then wait 3-4 years, which will be when the wave of used EVs start coming off the lease, PCP and company car schemes and hitting the used car market.

The EV market is rather distorted currently, sales of EVs were really low up until just a year or two ago, there were a few models but the volume was negligible, the sales started ramping in late 2019 when the car manufacturer CO2 targets started kicking in and government introduced the company car benefit in kind tax cut.

So at the moment buying an EV means either buying or leasing brand new, and brand new cars are always expensive, or buying used from a small pool of vehicles, where the limited supply means prices are high and the ranges weren't great.

It's not a good time to buy a used car at the moment, they've all gone up in price, but if you want something electrified, have a look at used plug-in hybrids because these were selling in somewhat higher volumes back in 2017 and 2018 to company car fleets.

 

[Factotum]

It is very likely that smart meters and chargers will be designed to deal with this. It seems quite likely that you'll be able to say you need the car charged up to N per cent by 8am, say, and the charger and smart meter will collaborate, by way of a fancy version of Economy 7, to achieve that at the cheapest price. Or if you want a fast charge now you can, but the price charged will be the current rate which depending on time of day may be much higher.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

That does rather presuppose that "Smartmeters" really are smart and that they can maintain connective. Current reports on the "smartmeter" roll out are not encouraging but I suppose that they will iron the problems in the next twenty years.

And how will people like me who cannot have a "smartmeter" installed be letreated?

 

[XAM2175]

That does rather presuppose that "Smartmeters" really are smart and that they can maintain connective. Current reports on the "smartmeter" roll out are not encouraging but I suppose that they will iron the problems in the next twenty years.

The smart meter rollout in GB has been a mess and shouldn't be taken as being indicative of their capabilities or reliability. It's also majorly complicated by the way in which the electricity market was deregulated - making the meter the responsibility of your electricity supplier, rather than of your distributor, which is the model that's been successfully used in a number of other countries.

The problems originally experienced when people changed to a new supplier were resolved for new installations in mid-2018, and became available for retrofit from early 2019 onwards.

Problems arising from poor data network reception are being addressed by the deployment of meters using 4G and 5G modems, which benefit from network improvements for mobile phone users. Where this is still insufficient and/or unreliable, newer meters also have the ability to form mesh networks with other smart meters.

And how will people like me who cannot have a "smartmeter" installed be letreated?

At some point in the not-too-distant future you are going to end up with a smart meter, because your existing meter's metrology certification will one day expire - assuming the meter doesn't fail before then. The only real exception to this process is if there is a technical reason precluding the installation of a smart meter, but even then you should expect that the list of valid reasons will shrink with time.

Until such time as you do have a smart meter installed, you will not be able to take advantage of any promotions, discount rates, or grid-interactive control schemes that require a smart meter. You will of course still be able to charge an electric vehicle, but you will need to control the process manually or using the vehicle's on-board software only.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Aye and there's the rub: "subject to condition". There are lots of reports on consumer programmes about people getting a rather large unexpected additional bill when they hand it back. Minor blemishes which wouldn't bother a private buyer are pounced on and charged at a high rate. One friend of mine was surcharged because he returned the car with new Michelin tires rather than the OEM tires.

So PCP isn't for you. It's not for me either.

Fortunately for us both, there are enough people who do like it (and leasing) that it supplies a decent number of 2-3 year old used cars for those of us who prefer buying outright to buy, after the majority of depreciation has already happened.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==

That does rather presuppose that "Smartmeters" really are smart and that they can maintain connective. Current reports on the "smartmeter" roll out are not encouraging but I suppose that they will iron the problems in the next twenty years.

And how will people like me who cannot have a "smartmeter" installed be letreated?

Why can't you?

If it is because you rent, legislation will catch up. The first rental contract I signed prohibited change of telecommunications or energy supplier or installing broadband. That would be considered laughable now.

 

[NoRoute]

Until such time as you do have a smart meter installed, you will not be able to take advantage of any promotions, discount rates, or grid-interactive control schemes that require a smart meter. You will of course still be able to charge an electric vehicle, but you will need to control the process manually or using the vehicle's on-board software only.

Yes the smart meter is necessary to provide half-hourly metering, so measuring your consumption in each half-hour period which is needed for many of the new time of use tariffs. Though you could still access Economy 7 if you have an existing non-smart E7 meter.

At the moment though there's no grid interactive control schemes using the smart metering system, if you buy an EV charge point today it won't connect to your smart meter. It will connect to your wifi or 3G/4G and you'll control it via the web or app. Using smart meters for smart EV charging hasn't got anywhere to date.

 

[AM9]

Yes the smart meter is necessary to provide half-hourly metering, so measuring your consumption in each half-hour period which is needed for many of the new time of use tariffs. Though you could still access Economy 7 if you have an existing non-smart E7 meter.

At the moment though there's no grid interactive control schemes using the smart metering system, if you buy an EV charge point today it won't connect to your smart meter. It will connect to your wifi or 3G/4G and you'll control it via the web or app. Using smart meters for smart EV charging hasn't got anywhere to date.

Because of its potential for managing local distribution networks and minimising the level of reinforcement needed to take on electric space heating and EV charging, we can be assured that smart metering will be working before the demand increase requires it. That would be alongside supporting legislation to shape all tariffs towards necessary domestic energy management.

 

[Roast Veg]

That does rather presuppose that "Smartmeters" really are smart and that they can maintain connective. Current reports on the "smartmeter" roll out are not encouraging but I suppose that they will iron the problems in the next twenty years.

All the energy companies are broke right now. Lots of hardware suppliers were expecting contracts for consumer devices but that whole sector is effectively in limbo for the time being.

 

[The Ham]

Aye and there's the rub: "subject to condition". There are lots of reports on consumer programmes about people getting a rather large unexpected additional bill when they hand it back. Minor blemishes which wouldn't bother a private buyer are pounced on and charged at a high rate. One friend of mine was surcharged because he returned the car with new Michelin tires rather than the OEM tires.

It depends on the company, the better ones (especially in the last few years) use the rules set by car hire companies where small dents and scratches are seen as fair wear and tear.

I suspect that the lease was under charged and that's where those companies then make their money (even if they don't lose out due to those differences).

 

[Factotum]

At some point in the not-too-distant future you are going to end up with a smart meter, because your existing meter's metrology certification will one day expire - assuming the meter doesn't fail before then. The only real exception to this process is if there is a technical reason precluding the installation of a smart meter, but even then you should expect that the list of valid reasons will shrink with time.

Until such time as you do have a smart meter installed, you will not be able to take advantage of any promotions, discount rates, or grid-interactive control schemes that require a smart meter. You will of course still be able to charge an electric vehicle, but you will need to control the process manually or using the vehicle's on-board software only.

The reason that I can't have a smart meter is because there isn't room on the meter board. Smart meters are much larger than proper meters and, according to the literature need a full square foot of board. That would preclude a "smart-meter" in any of the houses I lived in and I am sure, many other houses.

I cannot understand why the specification for the "smart-meter" didn't insist that it had the same footprint and terminal positions as the proper meters.
I won't hold my breath for all those supposed advantages. The "smart-meter" that was installed in my office three months ago still isn't working because of problems with the "system"

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Aug 2021 ==

Why can't you?

If it is because you rent, legislation will catch up. The first rental contract I signed prohibited change of telecommunications or energy supplier or installing broadband. That would be considered laughable now.

Because the "smart-meter" is twice the size of the old meter and there isn't room on the board for it without moving the service head - tsk which the installers didn't have time to do.

 

[XAM2175]

I cannot understand why the specification for the "smart-meter" didn't insist that it had the same footprint and terminal positions as the proper meters.

It's because most models of smart electricity meter also include the Communications Hub that supports the connection to the network, to your gas meter if you have one, and to your In-Home Display. Some suppliers do have meters that fit the footprint of legacy meters, but obviously yours didn't at the time of your attempted install.

However since you aren't interested in the advantages you can simply sit back and ignore the whole thing. At some point the supplier will return with an appropriately sized meter, or there will be some form of arrangement and settlement between yourself, your supplier, your distributor, and possibly also the government, to make space.

(This fragmentation of responsibility is one of the major failings of the rollout here and could have been avoided entirely had responsibility for metering been allocated entirely to distributors)

 

[cactustwirly]

So PCP isn't for you. It's not for me either.

Fortunately for us both, there are enough people who do like it (and leasing) that it supplies a decent number of 2-3 year old used cars for those of us who prefer buying outright to buy, after the majority of depreciation has already happened.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Aug 2021 ==



Why can't you?

If it is because you rent, legislation will catch up. The first rental contract I signed prohibited change of telecommunications or energy supplier or installing broadband. That would be considered laughable now.

Um no, most tenancy agreements I've had have that condition. If you change the meter then they'll charge you the cost of a new one off your deposit. Unless you get the landlords permission to change it.