Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[DustyBin]

Danger of going way off topic here but great choice, I nearly bought a Focus RS in 2018. Kind of wish I had now as the values have stayed really strong but I got an M2 instead.

At the moment there's no real need for manufacturers to make EV's desirable on a driver-focussed level. They will sell plenty of EV's anyway because, if you can afford to get into one, they are currently attractively cheap to run. The real challenge will be once everyone is driving EV's, what's going to drive people to change cars every few years? At the moment you see hundreds of 'M-Sport' BMW's and 'AMG-line' Mercedes on the road, and what drives the sales of these? High performance halo products.

Making an electric car fast is relatively easy compared to an ICE car, it offers a lot more flexibility with packaging as batteries can be distributed a lot more creatively than great lumps of engine, gearbox and fuel tank. You could also have motors powering individual wheels so 'true' torque vectoring, which would make them engaging to drive. The possibilities are exciting, I just hope someone delivers on them.

Funnily enough the M2 would have been my second choice, another proper drivers car!

I agree with you, the possibilities are exciting when it comes to EVs and I say that as a confirmed petrol head.

In response to those of you discussing MPVs, don’t forget some people use them as a small van. My mother drives a Grand C-MAX, the back seats are very rarely needed but it’s great for trips to the garden centre, DIY store etc.!

 

[Factotum]

r. My house, built over a century ago, has a 100A supply, as does every other house on my ‘estate’. There won’t be several million houses with a shared 100A connection.

You say that has a 100A supply but I think that you men that the main fuse is 100Amps. Not the same thing. That fuse is to protest the supply cable but the distribution network isn't designed on the basis of every house on the talking 100 amps simultaneously; more like 10amp with occasional 30amp loads
A 100amp supply will sustain 23KW which is adequate for a 17kW charger (70 amps).
But the supply to the whole street is based on a lot of diversity so 20 or 30 houses all charging at once is going to overload the cables in the street.

 

[skyhigh]

A 100amp supply will sustain 23KW which is adequate for a 17kW charger (70 amps).

Almost all home chargers are 7kW. The next step up is 22kW which requires a 3 phase supply.

Wow, 24 out of how many?

Obviously there's more than 24 services, but this is one charging operator. There's also BP Pulse, Shell, Instavolt, Ionity and more doing similar. Gridserve are planning 100 electric only forecourts.

 

[yorkie]

I was thinking of posting a new thread when I saw this article, but I think it's probably relevant here; these concerns are consistent with concerns expressed by @py_megapixel in the opening post of this thread:

Never mind going electric, where will we park?

UK roads are already jam-packed and that looks set to get worse as more people snap up EVs.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's a long article; here are a few key extracts:

Drivers already own 32 million cars - that's up 28% since 2001, during which time the population has only risen by 13%. And by 2050 there will be 44 million cars in the UK - so start looking for that parking space now.

Congestion and traffic jams come down to one simple fact - cars are space-inefficient. They take up seven times the space of a bike but usually carry only up to five people. Often this number is much lower - and that's only when they're moving.

"People who have electric vehicles (EVs) are going to feel entitled to certain car-parking spaces, and those without EVs are going to get further squeezed in terms of space," [Prof Jillian Anable] says.

At the current rate, managing these neighbourhood battles over territory will require more space to be surrendered from either the road or the pavement.

Someone will have to give way.

Well, let me tell you now: space must NOT be surrendered from the pavements!

There are many reasons why we need to encourage walking, cycling and the use of public transport, and discourage the use of cars - regardless of how those cars are powered.

Yes EVs may be better than traditional cars with combustion engines, but they are not a panacea.

 

[Domh245]

Yes EVs may be better than traditional cars with combustion engines, but they are not a panacea.

Whilst I fully agree with this point, I'm curious as to how realistic the figure of 44m cars by 2050 is. The SMMT paper I referred to earlier in the thread expects the total number of cars to stay roughly static at ~35m in their "high" scenario, and decrease to ~33.5m in their central scenario based on current vehicle lifespans and an expectation that there'll be a move away from vehicle ownership based on their forecasts. The paper where they've pulled the 44m figure from seems to be based on a 2018 forecast by the DfT, which arrives at the figures based on "changes in GDP and employment, as the population becomes more affluent and households effectively transition to having access to a greater number of cars." rather than a more detailed forecast and analysis

I'm inclined to think that the projection will be somewhere nearer the SMMTs numbers than the DfTs, though the extent to which the expected reduction in car ownership may be reduced, particularly if we continue to see a post-pandemic shift away from cities

 

[yorkie]

Whilst I fully agree with this point, I'm curious as to how realistic the figure of 44m cars by 2050 is. The SMMT paper I referred to earlier in the thread expects the total number of cars to stay roughly static at ~35m in their "high" scenario, and decrease to ~33.5m in their central scenario based on current vehicle lifespans and an expectation that there'll be a move away from vehicle ownership based on their forecasts. The paper where they've pulled the 44m figure from seems to be based on a 2018 forecast by the DfT, which arrives at the figures based on "changes in GDP and employment, as the population becomes more affluent and households effectively transition to having access to a greater number of cars." rather than a more detailed forecast and analysis

I'm inclined to think that the projection will be somewhere nearer the SMMTs numbers than the DfTs, though the extent to which the expected reduction in car ownership may be reduced, particularly if we continue to see a post-pandemic shift away from cities

Good point and I hope you are right!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, let me tell you now: space must NOT be surrendered from the pavements!

I'd not be that absolute. Some pavements are uselessly wide and could be narrowed to the width that, say, two wheelchair users could pass each other, without causing any problems. Some are too narrow and need to be widened.

There could do with being a review of urban parking as a whole. For example in narrow terraced streets it would be better to have charger-fitted herringbone parking in one direction and a one way system than the present free for all with parking on both sides. The angle of the herringbone bays can be adjusted depending on the width of the road. Or in some of the narrower streets it might be better for Councils to buy up some of the end houses on a terrace (these are typically in very cheap areas, so if you make a decent offer...) and provide parking areas with chargers, and stop parking on the road entirely.

 

[Bald Rick]

You say that has a 100A supply but I think that you men that the main fuse is 100Amps

It’s a 100A supply. I’ve seen the cable where it connects to the network.

I'm inclined to think that the projection will be somewhere nearer the SMMTs numbers than the DfTs, though the extent to which the expected reduction in car ownership may be reduced, particularly if we continue to see a post-pandemic shift away from cities

Agreed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It’s a 100A supply. I’ve seen the cable where it connects to the network.

I would be very, very surprised if diversity* wasn't applied, i.e. each house will have what is nominally a 100A supply, but if all houses drew 100A at once the substation breakers would trip.

Clearly the setup needs one house to be able to draw 100A or the main fuse would not provide sufficient protection to the cable in the event of a short.

But if you think it through...the setup is sized for everyone to draw say 13A at once, because when Eastenders goes to the break and all the kettles go on** that is exactly what happens, and if it's winter you've got lights and some electric heaters on too, not to mention the telly itself. So if these home chargers were mostly 13A you've not got a fundamental issue - and a 13A charger is fine for overnight.

* For those unfamiliar with the term, it means that electrical systems tend not to be specified for everything to be used to its maximum because it basically never is. For example, you might have a room that has 4 sets of sockets in it, but you aren't exactly going to plug an iron or electric fire into each one, nor are those things going to be on 100% of the time due to their thermostats, so in reality the supply to that room doesn't need to provide for doing that. Most socket circuits are on a 32A breaker, but if you count the number of sockets on your circuit and multiply that by 13A that will give you many, many times that.

** Notably this is exactly what the pumped storage station at Dinorwig is designed for!

 

[Bald Rick]

I would be very, very surprised if diversity* wasn't applied

I’d be surprised too, but I didn’t see that part of the network! But I know I have 100A, and have used nearly all of it at one point when testing my new electrics.

 

[Aictos]

Shop around for the best personal leasing deals.
Lease Loco is a good place to start, as it collates leasing deals from lots of lease providers. A sort of comparison site.

Those cheapest deals are for smaller vehicles and start with the lower spec. models, with the smallest battery capacity in some cases; but they are not much more expensive than small ICE models in terms of personal leasing costs.
That’s before you factor in the lower running costs for an EV.

They’re also brand-new cars and that’s something else to consider if you’re comparing them with a 10 year old car, which has absorbed a large chunk of depreciation and is getting closer to the end of its cost effective lifetime.
That 10 year old car will generally work out a lot cheaper, provided you don’t incur some serious maintenance or repair costs, or have to sell or write it off as being financially or practically useful.

That's true but most of the service stations near me don't yet have charging points for EVs; there is one at a railway station near me but that's a 10 to 15 drive away, the nearest petrol station only does petrol or diesel and it looks unlikely to change. That's one reason why I can't get one even if it's a rental as there's nowhere near my home that has a charging point nor is there one anywhere at work unless I leave the vehicle in the local train station and just walk the 15 minutes to work which kinda of defeats the object as I can drive from work to home in 30 mins whereas using public transport takes me a hour.

I did also look at a Volkswagen Golf or a Toyota Prius as both have decent range, the former as a diesel or petrol model and the latter as a hybrid.

 

[Factotum]

It’s a 100A supply. I’ve seen the cable where it connects to the network.

What size is it?
The network cannot sustain 100 amps to every house

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure it's quite as niche as you make out ... I see plenty of MPVs on the road still (Ford S-Max, VW Touran, Seat Alhambra, Vauxhall Zafira etc) and indeed 10% of households on my road have one. I'm not suggesting the full capacity is needed all or even most of the time, but the point is it is needed on occasion (otherwise why buy one?) and for me at least the economics of replacing it with a smaller EV and short term hire/alternatives don't (yet) stack up. The MPV market is currently poorly served by the range of EVs available.

A lot of people used to have 7 seaters to accommodate 3 child seats in their car, the rise of SUV's has meant that is less of an issue.

Then many would keep them (if there was much more than 3 year gaps between kids) as then it wasn't long between the eldest not needing a car seat and them being fairly tall and the extra space is useful (says someone who's parents had to buy a car without a sun roof so that I could fit in the back, and before anyone says that's unlikely; I'm long in the body so at the time wouldn't fit in the middle row of a Galaxy but someone taller than me when stood up could!).

 

[Bald Rick]

The network cannot sustain 100 amps to every house

Of course it can. Just not concurrently.

 

[ashkeba]

There are many reasons why we need to encourage walking, cycling and the use of public transport, and discourage the use of cars - regardless of how those cars are powered.

Yes EVs may be better than traditional cars with combustion engines, but they are not a panacea.

What rail-rail connections can be made easily with e-bikes to open up faster journeys? I've done Hatfield-St Albans and Cambridge-Huntingdon on an unpowered bike. Sandy-Bedford is another close to me that looks obvious but maybe does not open up lots of journeys until East West Rail runs to Oxford. Watford Junction to Gerrards Cross looks useful.

What links could be improved to encourage more ebikes? Stevenage-Luton Airport are both intercity and looks OK but also looks like it could be made better and more direct.

Do any rail stations have ebike charging yet?

 

[AM9]

What size is it?
The network cannot sustain 100 amps to every house

Every time there is a discussion on EVs, this old chestnut get's dragged into the conversation.
Most domestic installations these days have a BS88 100A 'company' fuse, (in case somebody wants to derail the discussion, yes I know that there are some with 60A, mainly older terrace properties and some small apartments).The 'company' fuse is the encloses one first in the Line wire and is not (legally) accessible to the consumer. That 100A fuse has a nominal continuous rating of 100A| and will withstand short-term excess current surges such as startup loads, (Typically 150-200% of rating but I don't have any data on BS** types). The connected loads can be well over that, - I have 5 32A power circuits plus 16A immersion heater and (the opportunity for) a 45A cooker load, which would certainly see the company fuse off but there is little to zero chance that it would ever be that way outside a series of unlikely faults. Most modern houses have circuits that could overload the primary fuse. That is what diversity means in domestic supplies.
Now to repeat what has already been explained many times in RUK discussions about EVs, just because everybody in the street can draw 100A, the distribution system is not designed to deliver that load. But every EV in the future will have the ability to manage it's charging cycle for the following reasons:

not every car needs to be fully charged as soon as it is connected to a charger, (just like every IC car doesn't need to be filled with fuel every time it's owner parks it.​

costs for domestic supplies will soon be based on their time of use, i.e. if a car owner gets home at 18:00 on a cold windless November evening and insists charging their vehicle fully before going out later, they will pay top whack for that electricity, maybe as much as 50p per kWh at present day prices. Those who manage their use and charging better will set the process to start, say, at 23:00 until 06:00, and will get the benefit of cheaper electricity, - far less than the standard rate of about 15-20p/kWh.​

there will be some EV owners who already have a fully charged vehicle and are not be planning to use it for a couple of days, they will have the option to sell ,say, 25% of their charge backk to the supplier and receive payment.​

By these methods, consumers will be nudged to only demand electricity at peak times when a) they really need it and b) if they are prepared to pay extra. That means that the distribution system and even the primary supplies can be provisioned and used much more efficiently. There will be far less power stations running all night with no real load, yet burning gas because the plant cannot be shut down and restarted at will. This is what smart meters in homes are all about.

 

[Meerkat]

A majority, not all.

Chargers, not necessarily fast chargers

And some service station spaces are used all week round / year round !

Because of range anxiety etc most EV owners will plug in and top up whenever they stop at the services which means the charger spaces will be full at busy times, which is when people are most likely to be driving long distance and need them. I just can’t see enough chargers being installed due to the economics of all the ones that will only be used at the busiest times.
This will be even more the case for pubs and tourist attractions.

i.e. if a car owner gets home at 18:00 on a cold windless November evening and insists charging their vehicle fully before going out later, they will pay top whack for that electricity, maybe as much as 50p per kWh at present day prices

So EV cars are likely to put up peak prices, even for non-car owners?

 

[Bald Rick]

Because of range anxiety etc most EV owners will plug in and top up whenever they stop at the services

They don’t now, so why would they in future?

Range anxiety is only an issue for people without EVs...

 

[87 027]

This is what smart meters in homes are all about.

That is very true - the real bigger picture benefit is the ability to manage the energy system more intelligently.

So EV cars are likely to put up peak prices, even for non-car owners?

Tariffs will get a lot more fine grained based on time of day and type of usage, based on the ability to see which circuits in a house are consuming the electricity.

 

[Meerkat]

They don’t now, so why would they in future?

Range anxiety is only an issue for people without EVs...

Because they tend to have expensive ones and home chargers.
We‘ve been told that the people without home chargers will be fine as they can top up all over the place….

 

[Bald Rick]

Because they tend to have expensive ones and home chargers.

Not all of them by any means.

 

[AM9]

Because of range anxiety etc most EV owners will plug in and top up whenever they stop at the services which means the charger spaces will be full at busy times, which is when people are most likely to be driving long distance and need them. I just can’t see enough chargers being installed due to the economics of all the ones that will only be used at the busiest times.
This will be even more the case for pubs and tourist attractions.

So EV cars are likely to put up peak prices, even for non-car owners?

No, not at all. Anybody who insists in making heavy demands of energy will be made to pay for it, - a bit like peak train travel. That will incluude the increase in domestic space heating when new gas boilers are no longer installed.
In fact by making energy already stored in batteries available for distribution to others, most eV owners will actually be helping keep the cost of peak energy demand lower. Those continuing to drive IC vehicles will still be contributing to CO2 levels and pollutants from burning hydrocarbons though.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Aug 2021 ==

They don’t now, so why would they in future?

Range anxiety is only an issue for people without EVs...

It's so wierd that EV fobia is taking away all sense of reason, - must be the fumes at the pumps.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Of course it can. Just not concurrently.

And nor need it. What it can probably do is sustain about 30A or so to every house, because that's what it does every day at teatime when people put the cooker, possibly an electric heater, the kettle, the telly and all the lights on at once. Conveniently 7.5kW at 230V is about that, and overnight people will barely have anything else on at all. I'm not even sure that there is a need for 7.5kW chargers for use overnight, though, 13A would do fine for that use-case if you plug in every night, and it can definitely do 13A to every house at once, as a full set of incandescent bulbs will head you that way.

 

[AM9]

And nor need it. What it can probably do is sustain about 30A or so to every house, because that's what it does every day at teatime when people put the cooker, possibly an electric heater, the kettle, the telly and all the lights on at once. Conveniently 7.5kW at 230V is about that, and overnight people will barely have anything else on at all. I'm not even sure that there is a need for 7.5kW chargers for use overnight, though, 13A would do fine for that use-case if you plug in every night, and it can definitely do 13A to every house at once, as a full set of incandescent bulbs will head you that way.

The anti EV types are just clutching at straws. The net demand from charging all cars in the UK based on current mileage is dwarfed by the increase in electric space heating that will be mandated.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The anti EV types are just clutching at straws. The net demand from charging all cars in the UK based on current mileage is dwarfed by the increase in electric space heating that will be mandated.

Not really, because the switch won't be to electric space heating - it's inefficient* and expensive. The switch will be to air and ground-source heat pumps, which use far less electricity than resistant heating - they're more like running aircon (which itself is growing in popularity) in reverse. Possibly also hydrogen.

I do however completely agree that the EV thing is now a non-issue, and if suitable used vehicles for my needs (i.e. not a Nissan Leaf) were widely available I would buy one tomorrow.

* Yes, I know it's technically 100% efficient in converting electrical energy to heat energy, but when you consider the whole system back to the power station...

 

[AM9]

Not really, because the switch won't be to electric space heating - it's inefficient* and expensive. The switch will be to air and ground-source heat pumps, which use far less electricity than resistant heating - they're more like running aircon (which itself is growing in popularity) in reverse. Possibly also hydrogen.

I do however completely agree that the EV thing is now a non-issue, and if suitable used vehicles for my needs (i.e. not a Nissan Leaf) were widely available I would buy one tomorrow.

* Yes, I know it's technically 100% efficient in converting electrical energy to heat energy, but when you consider the whole system back to the power station...

"Power Station" doesn't necessarily mean a CO2 generator, -it can be wind, hydro, tidal, and any stored source (including solar), then there's the building new with air and ground heat pumps. Once any of those sources is established, power distribution will be reinforced and will form part of a largely electric environment.

 

[Meerkat]

Not really, because the switch won't be to electric space heating - it's inefficient* and expensive. The switch will be to air and ground-source heat pumps,

Again there are an awful lot of homes that can’t do either of those, certainly not unless they can make the air source pumps quiet enough to use nearer to neighbours.

 

[The Ham]

I'd not be that absolute. Some pavements are uselessly wide and could be narrowed to the width that, say, two wheelchair users could pass each other, without causing any problems. Some are too narrow and need to be widened.

There could do with being a review of urban parking as a whole. For example in narrow terraced streets it would be better to have charger-fitted herringbone parking in one direction and a one way system than the present free for all with parking on both sides. The angle of the herringbone bays can be adjusted depending on the width of the road. Or in some of the narrower streets it might be better for Councils to buy up some of the end houses on a terrace (these are typically in very cheap areas, so if you make a decent offer...) and provide parking areas with chargers, and stop parking on the road entirely.

Herringbone parking isn't very efficient, typically two rows of parking fit more cars in. Having said that it depends on what space you have, if you have a two way road and parking down both sides and you make it one way with herringbone parking then you can get more in.

The other time it works is of you want to add more footway space.

A better user of space for many side roads would be to make them LTN and make the remaining roads shared space with no formal footways.

Of course most such streets are in urban areas where it would be better to reduce parking availablity, provide better public transport and more landscaping (like micro parks). This would reduce the temperature in the urban environment (less solar gain onto dark surfaces, typically tarmac during the days when people have taken their cars away from their home), reduce the risk of flooding (the micro parks having a better ability to absorb water) and improve the value of homes (by them bring in a nicer setting).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Aug 2021 ==

On the subject of replacing the battery in an EV, there's a misconception that the battery is like a giant AA, when in reality is lots of them, as such there's people who are already finding the cell(s) which are damaged and replace them.

Whilst more expensive per Kwh, as typically very few are seriously damaged it's much cheaper than replacing the whole pack.

 

[paul1609]

Not really, because the switch won't be to electric space heating - it's inefficient* and expensive. The switch will be to air and ground-source heat pumps, which use far less electricity than resistant heating - they're more like running aircon (which itself is growing in popularity) in reverse. Possibly also hydrogen.

I do however completely agree that the EV thing is now a non-issue, and if suitable used vehicles for my needs (i.e. not a Nissan Leaf) were widely available I would buy one tomorrow.

* Yes, I know it's technically 100% efficient in converting electrical energy to heat energy, but when you consider the whole system back to the power station...

Air source heat pumps aren't the great solution they are made out to be. The very high capital cost per Kw when compared to a natural gas boiler is one of the trades best kept secrets. Number 2 is that they will only have an average life of around 10 years. it remains to be seen if it will be economic to change a failed compressor (or if the parts will be available) at that stage. The government grants will have long since disappeared by then.

 

[Gostav]

A problem has been forgotten by public - "over 80% of the global supply chain of rare earth elements, important minerals for electric vehicles and wind turbine components, is controlled by China." "China controls 51% of the global total of chemical lithium, 62% of chemical cobalt and 100% of spherical graphite — the major components of lithium-ion batteries."
Afghanistan is home to what is believed to be one of the richest reserves of lithium and China would be take control the mining.

Battery vehicles are not just about economic or environment issues, but also about the energy security of the nation.