Why would anyone buy new sleeper stock when cross border services are dying out?

[daodao]

Mod Note: Posts #1 - #8 originally in this thread.

I really don't understand why any European rail company is buying new sleeper cars. Longer distance international trains are dying, and in many places are already dead. There no longer seem to be any passenger trains on the following international routes:

• Belgrade to Budapest/Sarajevo/Skopje/Sofia/Timisoara/Zagreb
• Gdansk-Kaliningrad
• Kosice-Krakow/Warsaw
• Lisbon-Madrid/Hendaye (for Paris)
• Nice-Italy (through services ceased, although connections are still available at Ventimiglia)
• Oslo-Gothenburg/Stockholm
• Salonika-Skopje/Sofia
• Sarajevo-Zagreb
• Warsaw-Kiev/Lviv

There are still bus/coach connections along many of these routes, so it doesn't seem to be due to Covid-related closure of frontiers.

 

[Austriantrain]

I really don't understand why any European rail company is buying new sleeper cars. Longer distance international trains are dying, and in many places are already dead. There no longer seem to be any passenger trains on the following international routes:

• Belgrade to Budapest/Sarajevo/Skopje/Sofia/Timisoara/Zagreb
• Lisbon-Madrid/Hendaye (for Paris)
• Nice-Italy (through services ceased, although connections are still available at Ventimiglia)
• Oslo-Gothenburg/Stockholm.
• Kosice-Krakow/Warsaw

There are still bus connections along many of these routes, so it doesn't seem to be due to Covid-related closure of frontiers.

As I already pointed out to you in other threads, you are wrong. Long-distance international trains are not dying. They are thriving wherever rail companies are prepared to to de the hard work to actually offer them, and where they know how to run them. ÖBB is, fortunately, one of these rail companies, so it is no wonder they are prepared to invest.

In any case, why do you even care? You are obviously not interested and more than welcome to use a bus.

 

[daodao]

As I already pointed out to you in other threads, you are wrong. Long-distance international trains are not dying. They are thriving wherever rail companies are prepared to to de the hard work to actually offer them, and where they know how to run them. ÖBB is, fortunately, one of these rail companies, so it is no wonder they are prepared to invest.

In any case, why do you even care? You are obviously not interested and more than welcome to use a bus.

I provided examples from all corners of Europe. OBB seems to be the exception, possibly because it serves the centre of Europe, with Vienna having historic connections with other German-speaking territories and the former provinces of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

I actually find this isolationism rather sad, but it is a fact elsewhere in Europe. It is not just international passenger rail services that have disappeared. There are no longer any passenger ferries from Great Britain to anywhere in Scandinavia.

 

[Alfonso]

I really don't understand why any European rail company is buying new sleeper cars. Longer distance international trains are dying, and in many places are already dead. There no longer seem to be any passenger trains on the following international routes:

• Belgrade to Budapest/Sarajevo/Skopje/Sofia/Timisoara/Zagreb
• Gdansk-Kaliningrad
• Kosice-Krakow/Warsaw
• Lisbon-Madrid/Hendaye (for Paris)
• Nice-Italy (through services ceased, although connections are still available at Ventimiglia)
• Oslo-Gothenburg/Stockholm
• Salonika-Skopje/Sofia
• Sarajevo-Zagreb
• Warsaw-Kiev/Lviv

There are still bus/coach connections along many of these routes, so it doesn't seem to be due to Covid-related closure of frontiers.

Belgrade to Budapest is closed for upgrading, a couple of others are suspended because if Covid and may or may not return

 

[Austriantrain]

I provided examples from all corners of Europe.

You didn’t. You chose some examples to make your point while ignoring the much more numerous ones where the opposite is true. Why choose Nice - Milano when both Italy and France (which are both not good at doing this) have several other examples where there is decent international service (eg France- Germany/Switzerland; Italy - Switzerland/Austria)?

Why Norway when it is well known that international trains are stopped because of Covid?

Why the Balkan countries, which cannot even provide decent national services?

OBB seems to be the exception, possibly because it serves the centre of Europe, with Vienna having historic connections with other German-speaking territories and the former provinces of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

No.

 

[daodao]

Italy - Switzerland/Austria

The Italy-Austria through services are essentially run by OBB (with DB on the Brenner pass route); they barely penetrate to places not formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. Italy-Switzerland through services seem to be exclusively operated by SBB to/from Milan only. Italian railways, one of the premier rail systems in Europe with their Pendolino trains, do not seem interested in promoting/developing cross-border services.

 

[superalbs]

I really don't understand why any European rail company is buying new sleeper cars. Longer distance international trains are dying, and in many places are already dead. There no longer seem to be any passenger trains on the following international routes:

• Belgrade to Budapest/Sarajevo/Skopje/Sofia/Timisoara/Zagreb
• Gdansk-Kaliningrad
• Kosice-Krakow/Warsaw
• Lisbon-Madrid/Hendaye (for Paris)
• Nice-Italy (through services ceased, although connections are still available at Ventimiglia)
• Oslo-Gothenburg/Stockholm
• Salonika-Skopje/Sofia
• Sarajevo-Zagreb
• Warsaw-Kiev/Lviv

There are still bus/coach connections along many of these routes, so it doesn't seem to be due to Covid-related closure of frontiers.

Warszawa to Kyiv always used to be one of the longest (and highest capacity) sleeper trains outside of the former USSR area, it only disappeared in March 2020. I expect it will return.

 

[JonasB]

I really don't understand why any European rail company is buying new sleeper cars. Longer distance international trains are dying, and in many places are already dead.

The fact that they are buying new sleeper cars seems like an indication that you are wrong.

Italy-Switzerland through services seem to be exclusively operated by SBB to/from Milan only.

There are plans for more, a Zürich-Rome night train will return soon.

 

[Jim Jehosofat]

A couple of two word answers.......................................

Global Warming

Environmentally Friendly

I'm sure there are others too.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There's plenty of evidence of improved long-distance/cross-border services being planned, involving large investments in route upgrades:

Rail Baltica
Semmering/Koralm and Brenner routes in Austria (to/from Italy/Slovenia)
Full Gotthard/Ceneri upgrade now complete
Lyon-Turin
Madrid-Irun (-France)
Fehmarn Tunnel (DE-DK)
Budapest-Subotica-Belgrade (currently closed for upgrading)
(Bulgaria-) Edirne-Istanbul

The primary reason for most of these upgrades is freight as part of the TEN-T network, but the benefits will be there for passenger services as well.
With reduced journey times, day trains will be feasible over longer distances.
National systems complexity is reducing with multi-standard stock and ETCS.
Night trains have heavy competition from airlines, but ÖBB are investing to grow the market (the decarbonisation agenda will help).

 

[D6130]

The Italy-Austria through services are essentially run by OBB (with DB on the Brenner pass route); they barely penetrate to places not formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

The OBB sleeper service from Vienna to Italy runs as far as Rome, which is some considerable distance from the former frontiers of the Austro-Hungarian empire.

 

[Fragezeichnen]

Lots more good news for night trains this week:

• RegioJet are planning a year-round night train connection from Berlin via Prague and Vienna to Ljubljana and Zagreb, starting in December 2022.
• They have also signed on to be the operator of the "European Sleeper" project linking Ostend via Brussels and Amsterdam to Berlin.
• Regular international night trains to Paris will restart in December with the launch of the Paris - Wien NightJet, the final paths have already been agreed SNCF Infra and DB Netz.

However, it is true that international links are often neglected. Britain is arguably no different - the government has little interest Eurostar, and even on this forum, many opeople were steadfastly against the idea that Eurostar should receive any help whatsoever during the pandemic, either on the grounds that it was on unecessary luxury of the elite, or that it wasn't British enough.

 

[AlbertBeale]

Lots more good news for night trains this week:

• RegioJet are planning a year-round night train connection from Berlin via Prague and Vienna to Ljubljana and Zagreb, starting in December 2022.
• They have also signed on to be the operator of the "European Sleeper" project linking Ostend via Brussels and Amsterdam to Berlin.
• Regular international night trains to Paris will restart in December with the launch of the Paris - Wien NightJet, the final paths have already been agreed SNCF Infra and DB Netz.

However, it is true that international links are often neglected. Britain is arguably no different - the government has little interest Eurostar, and even on this forum, many opeople were steadfastly against the idea that Eurostar should receive any help whatsoever during the pandemic, either on the grounds that it was on unecessary luxury of the elite, or that it wasn't British enough.

It's surely the air equivalents to Eurostar which are the luxury - and one which the planet can't afford.

Since [amongst many other things of course] most air travel within Europe has to be wound down rather quickly (or we might as well all give up on expecting to live on a planet which continues to be at all comfortable for our species), and given that there will still be a desire for travel from country to country, then international passenger rail capacity - including sleepers - will obviously increase in the coming years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However, it is true that international links are often neglected. Britain is arguably no different - the government has little interest Eurostar, and even on this forum, many opeople were steadfastly against the idea that Eurostar should receive any help whatsoever during the pandemic, either on the grounds that it was on unecessary luxury of the elite, or that it wasn't British enough.

Point of order, it's because it's a French owned operation these days. They were quite rightly pointing out that chucking British money at it would be the same as chucking British money at Air France just because they happen to serve the UK. I would not have an issue with the idea of purchasing a stake back in the operation as a means of funding, though.

 

[Austriantrain]

The principles remain valid: where railway companies are interested in promoting long-distance cross-border services, they can be very successful. The most important thing is - except for the very few cases where cross-border demand is intrinsically so high that separate services can be justified (eg Paris - Brussels) that they be integrated with national services.

Obviously, Central Europe has an advantage in that there are usually several decent-sized cities on both sides of each border. Madrid - Lisbon is not so easy. But I don’t have the slightest doubt that a two-hourly Marseille - Genova - Milano service run together by SNCF and TI would work well (with a little patience so as to allow traffic to build up), as would a regular service from Perpignan to Barcelona on the HSL.

In this as in so many other things, railways are their worst own enemy.

 

[stuu]

Since [amongst many other things of course] most air travel within Europe has to be wound down rather quickly (or we might as well all give up on expecting to live on a planet which continues to be at all comfortable for our species), and given that there will still be a desire for travel from country to country, then international passenger rail capacity - including sleepers - will obviously increase in the coming years.

I was involved in a discussion about the numbers involved if air passengers were to switch to rail. It's completely unfeasible e.g. for one single popular route like London-Barcelona, you need to run 20 non-stop 400m trains every day to match pre-pandemic airline capacity, which from memory was 16,000 seats per day. Once you start adding up all the other similar routes it's clear that the options are A) less travel B) carbon-free flights. So in the short to medium term it has to be less travel: There is no way that building enough rail infrastructure is possible, as it would mean building whole new lines through countries which mainly benefit passengers from elsewhere.

That said, I don't fully understand the fixation on air travel as a source of carbon emissions, it's a low single digit percentage globally. Sorting out space heating is a far bigger win

 

[Bletchleyite]

I was involved in a discussion about the numbers involved if air passengers were to switch to rail. It's completely unfeasible e.g. for one single popular route like London-Barcelona, you need to run 20 non-stop 400m trains every day to match pre-pandemic airline capacity, which from memory was 16,000 seats per day.

Are you sure there are 16K seats per day from the UK to Barcelona? If you use the upper end of an A320's capacity (say 200, it's 190-something really) that's 80 flights. There surely aren't 80 flights per day from London to Barcelona or indeed anywhere near that - it's going to be more like 15-20 (I don't even think there are going to be 80 to Amsterdam, and I believe that's the busiest air route from the UK). I know the odd widebody gets used at busy times, but not to the extent that it would make up those numbers.

Worth bearing in mind though that there are (in the full 3tph timetable) something like 50 260ish metre trains per day from Euston to Manchester, so on specific shorter routes that sort of capacity is entirely viable.

Of course without air demand would drop. A 2 hour flight is fine for a weekend away - call it 4 hours each way by the time you've got to/from the airport and faffed about - but a many-hour train journey much less so, and not everyone is willing to use Sleepers. What it does mean though is that there should be plenty of custom for them. The whole idea of a weekend in Barcelona rather than it being your week-long summer holiday is from the low-cost airline era. With rail you're pretty much limited to Paris, Brussels or at a push Amsterdam, or places reached by a short local train journey from those.

 

[Austriantrain]

Are you sure there are 16K seats per day from the UK to Barcelona? If you use the upper end of an A320's capacity (say 200, it's 190-something really) that's 80 flights. There surely aren't 80 flights per day from London to Barcelona or indeed anywhere near that - it's going to be more like 15-20 (I don't even think there are going to be 80 to Amsterdam, and I believe that's the busiest air route from the UK). I know the odd widebody gets used at busy times, but not to the extent that it would make up those numbers.

Worth bearing in mind though that there are (in the full 3tph timetable) something like 50 260ish metre trains per day from Euston to Manchester, so on specific shorter routes that sort of capacity is entirely viable.

Of course without air demand would drop. A 2 hour flight is fine for a weekend away - call it 4 hours each way by the time you've got to/from the airport and faffed about - but a many-hour train journey much less so, and not everyone is willing to use Sleepers. What it does mean though is that there should be plenty of custom for them. The whole idea of a weekend in Barcelona rather than it being your week-long summer holiday is from the low-cost airline era. With rail you're pretty much limited to Paris, Brussels or at a push Amsterdam, or places reached by a short local train journey from those.

One of the busiest air routes in the world, Sydney - Melbourne, had - pre-COVID - about 9 million passengers a year, so about 24.000 per day. That’s about 22 double TGV Oceane (11 per direction). Not really impressive, SBB offers vastly more capacity between Zurich and Bern every day.

According to the Wikipedia site I consulted, no European air route even makes it into the top 50 worldwide.

 

[daodao]

I don’t have the slightest doubt that a two-hourly Marseille - Genova - Milano service run together by SNCF and TI would work well

Italian Railways don't share your vision, and as one of Europe's leading rail companies, i presume they have made a sound judgement about the viability of international passenger rail services.

 

[AlbertBeale]

I was involved in a discussion about the numbers involved if air passengers were to switch to rail. It's completely unfeasible e.g. for one single popular route like London-Barcelona, you need to run 20 non-stop 400m trains every day to match pre-pandemic airline capacity, which from memory was 16,000 seats per day. Once you start adding up all the other similar routes it's clear that the options are A) less travel B) carbon-free flights. So in the short to medium term it has to be less travel: There is no way that building enough rail infrastructure is possible, as it would mean building whole new lines through countries which mainly benefit passengers from elsewhere.

That said, I don't fully understand the fixation on air travel as a source of carbon emissions, it's a low single digit percentage globally. Sorting out space heating is a far bigger win

If it means less international travel for some years to come, so be it. And it's not a fixation with air travel [though that is an interesting case of a small minority of the world's population trashing the ecosystem for everyone, hence worth addressing], but this is after all a transport forum. It would be less relevant for me to go on about how I don't use a car, don't eat meat, don't buy anything new if old stuff can be repaired/recycled, etc etc etc ... though I do those things (and others) as well as avoiding European flights.

 

[HSTEd]

I was involved in a discussion about the numbers involved if air passengers were to switch to rail. It's completely unfeasible e.g. for one single popular route like London-Barcelona, you need to run 20 non-stop 400m trains every day to match pre-pandemic airline capacity, which from memory was 16,000 seats per day.

Those are some low capacity 400m trains.

Even a 374 (Modern Eurostar set) would fit 16,000 seats into 18.

As this is a long distance service, rapid boarding is much less of a problem and we are looking at double deck formations with 1100 seats (2 TGV Duplex) or ~1250 (2 Avelia Horizon).

Then we are looking at 13-15 trains.

That said, I don't fully understand the fixation on air travel as a source of carbon emissions, it's a low single digit percentage globally. Sorting out space heating is a far bigger win

It's a single digit percentage globally because the vast majority of the world don't really do air travel to a significant extent!

It expends ~10% of UK petroleum consumption.

It's also one of the few sectors for which no simple, efficient technological solution exists.

If ground transport is electrified and, as is likely, aviation consumes synthetic kerosene, it will consume more electrical energy than all of ground transportation in the UK

 

[Austriantrain]

Italian Railways don't share your vision, and as one of Europe's leading rail companies, i presume they have made a sound judgement about the viability of international passenger rail services. I also note that SNCF have passed their Paris-Turin/Milan service over to their low cost subsidiary Ouigo, presumably as high value time conscious business travellers fly from Paris to Turin/Milan.

That’s why I made the point about railway companies being interested. Or better said, at least basically competent. It has been a very long time since SNCF or Trenitalia have been „premier“ railways. In Western Europe, they are among the worst of the bunch.

BTW, a very easy search showed me that at least currently, Paris - Milano TGV are not operated by Ouigo. Wonder where you get your information from.

 

[daodao]

BTW, a very easy search showed me that at least currently, Paris - Milano TGV are not operated by Ouigo. Wonder where you get your information from.

I looked up a search engine. Is inOUI not the same as OUIgo?

 

[Austriantrain]

Is inOUI not the same as OUIgo?

No. It is the opposite = classic TGV services.

 

[daodao]

No. It is the opposite = classic TGV services.

Apologies for my error on this point, but the French terminology is confusing. I shall remove the sentence from my original post.

It has been a very long time since SNCF or Trenitalia have been „premier“ railways. In Western Europe, they are among the worst of the bunch.

In the UK, the perception is that SNCF and Trenitalia, along with RENFE, are the leading rail companies in Europe, because of their extensive high speed networks, with trains to match, such as the TGV and Pendolino.

 

[Bald Rick]

g. for one single popular route like London-Barcelona, you need to run 20 non-stop 400m trains every day to match pre-pandemic airline capacity

London - Barcelona is one of the most popular routes in Europe. Pre pandemic it carried just short of 4m passengers a year, on around 30 flights each way a day. This could be comfortably accommodated on 7 Eurostars each way per day, with seats spare. But as has been said, with a minimum 7 hour journey time (assuming the Montpellier - Perpignan line is built), most people simply wouldn’t do it.

 

[stuu]

Are you sure there are 16K seats per day from the UK to Barcelona? If you use the upper end of an A320's capacity (say 200, it's 190-something really) that's 80 flights. There surely aren't 80 flights per day from London to Barcelona or indeed anywhere near that - it's going to be more like 15-20 (I don't even think there are going to be 80 to Amsterdam, and I believe that's the busiest air route from the UK). I know the odd widebody gets used at busy times, but not to the extent that it would make up those numbers.

Worth bearing in mind though that there are (in the full 3tph timetable) something like 50 260ish metre trains per day from Euston to Manchester, so on specific shorter routes that sort of capacity is entirely viable.

Of course without air demand would drop. A 2 hour flight is fine for a weekend away - call it 4 hours each way by the time you've got to/from the airport and faffed about - but a many-hour train journey much less so, and not everyone is willing to use Sleepers. What it does mean though is that there should be plenty of custom for them. The whole idea of a weekend in Barcelona rather than it being your week-long summer holiday is from the low-cost airline era. With rail you're pretty much limited to Paris, Brussels or at a push Amsterdam, or places reached by a short local train journey from those.

You're absolutely right, that number is far too high for just London, it must have been UK to Barcelona, I'm sure the total was 92 flights per day or something around there. I must admit it wasn't academic level research that got to that number, but either way the numbers are pretty significant and there just isn't the capacity for those additional numbers to travel by train.

The fact is people are going to have to stay closer to home, more of the time. Sleeper trains don't have the capacity to be anything more than a niche product

 

[Austriantrain]

In the UK, the perception is that SNCF and Trenitalia, along with RENFE, are the leading rail companies in Europe, because of their extensive high speed networks, with trains to match, such as the TGV and Pendolino.

Technical Expertise has nothing to do with the quality of passenger service. Apart from RENFE, SNCF is probably the worst of the bunch. They are actually not interested in offering an even half decent service long-distance, it has been getting worse and worse. If they didn’t have a ^=10 million capital region and an extensive HSL network paid by the taxpayer, I wonder if they would still run any passenger trains at all. If you don’t happen to live along an HSL and wish to go to or from Paris, better forget it.

Trenitalia is vastly better, but they still focus almost exclusively on their most important HSL routes to the detriment of everything else.

BTW, I would argue that UK railways are among the best systems in Europe

 

[stuu]

In the UK, the perception is that SNCF and Trenitalia, along with RENFE, are the leading rail companies in Europe, because of their extensive high speed networks, with trains to match, such as the TGV and Pendolino.

I'd bet good money that more people would say DB, even if their reputation isn't really deserved

 

[Bald Rick]

You're absolutely right, that number is far too high for just London, it must have been UK to Barcelona, I'm sure the total was 92 flights per day or something around there.

London - Barca is roughly 70% of the U.K. - Barca traffic. There’s around 15,500 passengers per day total U.K. - Barca, so 16,000 seats will be about right (8,000 each way).