Could/should HS2 Eastern leg be shelved?

[6Gman]

Cheshire is in historic Mercia, and the historic boundary between the Midlands and the north of England is along the River Mersey. From a healthcare perspective, Crewe is on the current border of NW England, with many services at Leighton Hospital provided by the University Hospital of North Midlands. From a media perspective, the evening paper is the Sentinel and the local radio station is BBC Radio Stoke.

The moot point is whether the extension of the HS2 north of Crewe will actually be built. The newspaper articles quoted in posts 1 and 2 seem to disagree about this, but agree that the eastern leg of HS2 is unlikely to be built.

However, it is in the North West region for administrative purposes.

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Where do you think Crewe is if it's not in the Midlands ?

It is in the North West (just). I live there.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The ECML and WCML can be rationalised so that the lower passenger loadings can be more cost efficiently transported?

The ECML and WCML incur huge costs partially because of attempts to fit a quart into a pint glass.

HS2+rationalised WCML+ rationalised ECML is still better than bloated mess WCML + bloated mess ECML.

Too late they spent billions on WCML already and are busily doing same on ECML to increase capacity currently - rationalisation isn't cheap cost as much in signalling costs unpicking it all as just leaving it. If passenger loadings are going to be lower, im not so sure, then why bother at all with HS2.

 

[The Planner]

The ECML and WCML can be rationalised so that the lower passenger loadings can be more cost efficiently transported?

The ECML and WCML incur huge costs partially because of attempts to fit a quart into a pint glass.

HS2+rationalised WCML+ rationalised ECML is still better than bloated mess WCML + bloated mess ECML.

What would you conceivably rationalise on either route?

 

[edwin_m]

I haven’t seen too much said on these (and similar threads) about how shelving the eastern leg would prevent HS2 from being any use at relieving congestion on the MML and ECML.

I understand that reducing London-Leeds journey times is maybe less of a priority but this also kicks capacity issues out of St Pancras and KGX into the long grass.

HS2 won't actually release any capacity on the MML, because Leicester and the stations to the south will not benefit significantly and still need a similar service level to today both northwards and southwards.

 

[jfowkes]

Too late they spent billions on WCML already and are busily doing same on ECML to increase capacity currently - rationalisation isn't cheap cost as much in signalling costs unpicking it all as just leaving it. If passenger loadings are going to be lower, im not so sure, then why bother at all with HS2.

Even with the wildest projections of long-term WFH numbers, there will still be millions of car and lorry trips that as much as possible should be on rails. We need to be much more ambitious about modal shift, Covid or not.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Even with the wildest projections of long-term WFH numbers, there will still be millions of car and lorry trips that as much as possible should be on rails. We need to be much more ambitious about modal shift, Covid or not.

Absolutely but modal shift needs far more expenditure than HS2 and the risk currently is its burning so much of the capital budget other schemes will end up being pushed to the right or deferred that are key to unlocking capacity created on WCML. ie you can have all the extra freight paths but NLL is saturated now so not that acts as a constraint.

 

[Roast Veg]

Cancelling HS2 East releases no funds for any other schemes. Nothing will be built in its place. Not now, not ever - it was self funding like the rest of HS2.

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder that this thread isn't in the Speculative Ideas section, therefore any speculation would need to go into a new thread (if there isn't a suitable one already) or an existing one, in that section please. Thanks

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The North-West. Just about.

Crewe is situated within within the area of the county of Cheshire East.

NOTE : I had part finished this posting when I had to take a long telephone call and the posting above it had been made in the interim period by the time that this posting appeared on the thread.

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There's a new critique of HS2 from Simon Jenkins in the Guardian today, claiming it will not get north of Crewe.
He does know his railway stuff, at least on station architecture.

Having an in-depth knowledge of station architecture is not really the same as having the relevant knowledge and experience required when planning a new railway line, with all that so entails.

 

[Ianno87]

HS2 won't actually release any capacity on the MML, because Leicester and the stations to the south will not benefit significantly and still need a similar service level to today both northwards and southwards.

It will release on-train capacity if some passengers from Derby/Nottingham/Chesterfield/Sheffield are abstracted onto HS2.

Although Leicester will still need fast services, you could see them picking up an extra stop or two on the way south without massively impacting the journey time.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This may have been asked several times, but why couldn't the Eastern Leg be built first of the two rather than the main stretch to the north west?

There have always been doubts over the route of the eastern leg, notably about how to serve Sheffield (the current plan takes it well to the east, with a loop through the city on the classic line).
The western leg has (so far) not suffered the same uncertainties, but it still has to get through the local opposition in leafy Cheshire.
The proposed NPR/HS2 connections in Cheshire (towards Liverpool) also seem to complement the overall scheme, but the wider NPR route is still unknown.
What happens with NPR at the Piccadilly terminal is still unresolved, however (through station underground or surface reversal).
HS2's northern rolling stock depot is also supposed to be on the western leg, north of Crewe in the angle between HS2 and the WCML.

Simon Jenkins is right in the sense that the planning issues on the eastern leg may well sink it, at least until NPR is built (which also has huge planning and technical challenges, but has wider political support).
Parliamentary and government committees are also often hostile to mega-projects, as they are rarely efficiently delivered (cf Crossrail, aircraft carriers etc).
They also suck up vast taxpayer funds which are denied to all the other priorities.

 

[Ken H]

I am afraid that the whole project, bar london-brum, is at severe risk of being canned. the public finances are in a complete mess post covid. And WFH will calm down the peaks once people go back to the office. And its largely the in peaks when capacity matters.
I think a root and branch review if transport spending will happen in 2022. going to be a bumpy ride...

 

[Taunton]

Yet another project where the initial budget goes stratospherically upwards.

It never seems to be explained just what has gone up. The basics are pretty well known from the start, cubic metres of earth to be shifted, tons of steel to be purchased, etc, so as the scope remains the same, quite why costs go up so much, beyond basic inflation up to the point where orders are placed and price agreed, really does need some more detailed explanation. Not just a bare "we need yet another £x billion" (always seems to be in billions nowadays).

 

[philosopher]

I am afraid that the whole project, bar london-brum, is at severe risk of being canned. the public finances are in a complete mess post covid. And WFH will calm down the peaks once people go back to the office. And its largely the in peaks when capacity matters.
I think a root and branch review if transport spending will happen in 2022. going to be a bumpy ride...

In way I think HS2 got lucky, if the project had been running behind by more than a few months I suspect the whole thing would have been canned or least postponed due to poor public finances and uncertainty regarding future rail use.

I think Birmingham to Crewe will almost certainly be built as it seems to have quite a lot benefits for relatively low cost and so the government can say it reaches the north, even if only just. However as for the rest of project I am not too hopeful. My guess it that the rest will be put on hold and only resumed if rail use return to something similar to 2019 levels.

 

[takno]

There have always been doubts over the route of the eastern leg, notably about how to serve Sheffield (the current plan takes it well to the east, with a loop through the city on the classic line).
The western leg has (so far) not suffered the same uncertainties, but it still has to get through the local opposition in leafy Cheshire.
The proposed NPR/HS2 connections in Cheshire (towards Liverpool) also seem to complement the overall scheme, but the wider NPR route is still unknown.
What happens with NPR at the Piccadilly terminal is still unresolved, however (through station underground or surface reversal).
HS2's northern rolling stock depot is also supposed to be on the western leg, north of Crewe in the angle between HS2 and the WCML.

Simon Jenkins is right in the sense that the planning issues on the eastern leg may well sink it, at least until NPR is built (which also has huge planning and technical challenges, but has wider political support).
Parliamentary and government committees are also often hostile to mega-projects, as they are rarely efficiently delivered (cf Crossrail, aircraft carriers etc).
They also suck up vast taxpayer funds which are denied to all the other priorities.

I don't think there's been any doubt for several years about the route through south Yorkshire - it's to the east of Sheffield.

Simon Jenkins has been consistently completely wrong about almost every aspect of the project from day one, so if he was suddenly right about this it would be somewhat surprising

 

[Ken H]

Yet another project where the initial budget goes stratospherically upwards.

It never seems to be explained just what has gone up. The basics are pretty well known from the start, cubic metres of earth to be shifted, tons of steel to be purchased, etc, so as the scope remains the same, quite why costs go up so much, beyond basic inflation up to the point where orders are placed and price agreed, really does need some more detailed explanation. Not just a bare "we need yet another £x billion" (always seems to be in billions nowadays).

and this going over budget is what makes the treasury nervy. GWR electrification and crossrail both had considerable cost over-runs. They will be adding in considerable extra contingency into their spreadsheets, probably making a lot of stuff unaffordable.

 

[Taunton]

and this going over budget is what makes the treasury nervy. GWR electrification and crossrail both had considerable cost over-runs. They will be adding in considerable extra contingency into their spreadsheets, probably making a lot of stuff unaffordable.

I think the overruns (and gross descoping as well in the case of GW) on those two projects were way ahead of any Treasury "Optimism Bias" assessment of the funding. It does seem that the overall percentage overrun on such projects is progressively getting worse and worse. Again, a need for an analysis of just why this is happening.

Here in London Docklands we recall how the original DLR project was given "£77 million and not a penny more", which was achieved. Subsequent enhancements of the system did not have this dynamic. The more recent huge footbridge at Poplar station, like something from a TGV station, and which is mostly deserted, probably cost £77 million on its own.

One thing that might aid such public-funded projects would be to ban them being entered for any architectural awards (like that footbridge was), which always seem to encourage frippery and cost wasting features just to get the award.

 

[hwl]

The report from the National Infrastructure Commission in December recommended proceeding with the Western leg as a priority, but suggested the Eastern leg could be phased. Presumably on the basis that the WCML is more congested than the other two mainlines and the benefits of the Western leg are needed sooner. https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-Final-Report-15122020.pdf

With 2a already approved, 2b West is only a small add on and is far more progressed in planning terms. The 2b east is a victim of replanning to avoid Sheffield /Meadowhall and far less defined hence it would be delivered far later. Realistically the government want HS2 spend not to exceed 5-6bn a year hence accelerating the Western side tends to push the eastern back in cash flow terms.

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HS2's northern rolling stock depot is also supposed to be on the western leg, north of Crewe in the angle between HS2 and the WCML.

And east of Leeds near M1

 

[CW2]

The case for the Eastern leg of HS2 has always been weaker than that of the Western leg. Birmingham and Manchester are much bigger than the East Midlands cities, and serving Sheffield was always going to be difficult.
I would favour putting any further work on the Eastern leg of HS2 on hold until NPR is defined, and it's interfaces with HS2 agreed.

 

[Bald Rick]

I am afraid that the whole project, bar london-brum, is at severe risk of being canned.

some contracts have already been let for Phase 2a to Crewe. That is happening. And the Manchester leg is a racing certainty.

I would favour putting any further work on the Eastern leg of HS2 on hold until NPR is defined, and it's interfaces with HS2 agreed.

Which is precisely what is happening! (And has been the position for a year or so)

 

[Factotum]

Generally, as Crewe is in Cheshire it is considered the very southern end of the North West whilst Stoke being in Staffordshire is considered the northern end of the Midlands.

Where would you put Buxton and Glossop?

 

[alf]

Having an in-depth knowledge of station architecture is not really the same as having the relevant knowledge and experience required when planning a new railway line, with all that so entails.

I am not sure this critique of Simon Jenkins is fair.

Apart from being a national newspaper editor with all the access that brings to the influential & powerful I think he was a valued member of the British Railways Board for a long time.
He seemed seriously involved operational, policy & planning matters from his account of his time at the railway helm.

 

[Bald Rick]

Apart from being a national newspaper editor with all the access that brings to the influential & powerful I think he was a valued member of the British Railways Board for a long time.

It’s been nearly thirty years since he fulfilled either of those roles. A lot has happened since.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yet another project where the initial budget goes stratospherically upwards.

It never seems to be explained just what has gone up. The basics are pretty well known from the start, cubic metres of earth to be shifted, tons of steel to be purchased, etc, so as the scope remains the same, quite why costs go up so much, beyond basic inflation up to the point where orders are placed and price agreed, really does need some more detailed explanation. Not just a bare "we need yet another £x billion" (always seems to be in billions nowadays).

Nobody likes the detail it was the same when i was in NR lack of challenge because the big wigs don't understand it and nobody is held to account or ever loses there job aka GWR electrification. These projects employ far too many consultants who are only in it for themselves and without decent leadership from the politicians they just get away with it and then it becomes a too big to cancel project.

 

[daodao]

And the Manchester leg is a racing certainty.

Is that view based on inside information?

It seems worthwhile to me to build HS2 as far north as Crewe, and as you state, this is happening. However, beyond Crewe train services diverge in several different directions, so potential line usage (and thus the economic case) would be less.

 

[Ken H]

Is that view based on inside information?

It seems worthwhile to me to build HS2 as far north of Crewe, but beyond Crewe train services diverge in several different directions, so potential line usage (and thus the economic case) would be less.

save the horrendous costs of building in an urban area too. But you would need to add some infrastructure near manchester. Grade separated junction at Slade lane?

 

[Bald Rick]

Is that view based on inside information?

It’s based on public information, ie that a bill is going to be lodged in Parliament early next year. Bills like this take a year or two to prepare, and are very expensive. It would not have been allowed to proceed, let alone be announced, if it wasn’t happening.

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But you would need to add some infrastructure near manchester. Grade separated junction at Slade lane?

Which is building in an urban area.

 

[Ken H]

It’s based on public information, ie that a bill is going to be lodged in Parliament early next year. Bills like this take a year or two to prepare, and are very expensive. It would not have been allowed to proceed, let alone be announced, if it wasn’t happening.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Aug 2021 ==



Which is building in an urban area.

yes. but not an entirely new line.

 

[Bald Rick]

yes. but not an entirely new line.

A new line that is underground from the Airport to Ardwick, causing little disruption to the urban area it travels through, nor to the existing railway.

 

[Meerkat]

I am not sure this critique of Simon Jenkins is fair.

Apart from being a national newspaper editor with all the access that brings to the influential & powerful I think he was a valued member of the British Railways Board for a long time.
He seemed seriously involved operational, policy & planning matters from his account of his time at the railway helm.

Will the Guardian give HS2 chance to respond on that article?
It is ludicrously inaccurate in its facts!
Its also extre disingenuous to compare the whole cost against hospitals etc. Compare the non-financial part of the cost sure, but HS2 will be bringing in a return on that spending, unlike a hospital.