Former UN rapporteur claims UK bus privatisation breached basic rights

[A0]

Cross subsidy isn't an issue. It's a very normal part of operating any business.

Businesses are typically open all day. There will be times during the day when the takings do not exceed the cost of being open, but they stay open for the convenience of customers, because it's simple and because good service breeds repeat custom.

Some people in here seem to think it's some sort of evil to operate a journey that isn't itself remunerative as part of a whole, and it's bizarre. Tesco doesn't shut when it gets a bit quiet.

Poor example that - because you can't forecast how much custom you'll get at various points of a day and with opening times it's about being open at consistent times.

If you want to use the supermarkets as an analogy they *don't* cross subsidise (nor do any successful retailers) because cross subsidy would be accepting store 'x' makes a loss year on year, which is off-set by the profits in other stores. Retailers monitor the profitability of their stores very closely and stores which make losses are closed because otherwise those losses drag down the overall performance of the company.

And incidentally one change they might make to reduce their costs is to amend the opening hours - which does happen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Poor example that - because you can't forecast how much custom you'll get at various points of a day and with opening times it's about being open at consistent times.

If you want to use the supermarkets as an analogy they *don't* cross subsidise (nor do any successful retailers) because cross subsidy would be accepting store 'x' makes a loss year on year, which is off-set by the profits in other stores. Retailers monitor the profitability of their stores very closely and stores which make losses are closed because otherwise those losses drag down the overall performance of the company.

I suppose store openings/closures are equivalent to routes, and opening times are equivalent to timetables.

Stores cross subsidise timetables but not routes.

You absolutely can forecast custom levels at given times - you might notice that if you search for a business - any business - on Google they'll show you such a forecast.

 

[A0]

I suppose store openings/closures are equivalent to routes, and opening times are equivalent to timetables.

Stores cross subsidise timetables but not routes.

You absolutely can forecast custom levels at given times - you might notice that if you search for a business - any business - on Google they'll show you such a forecast.

Google forecasts it - but how good that forecast is, who knows. It's certainly not being driven by any data the retailers are giving Google. It's not like Google Maps where there is data available from bodies like the Highways Agency about how busy roads are.

There are 'quieter' times of the day - usually first thing in the morning and later in the evening - but retailers will change opening hours if they find they're the only store open on a high street at 7pm and there's nobody around. But in itself, being open at quieter times isn't a 'cross subsidy' - because the store is inherently profitable and will have profit targets to reach in a given year. If it doesn't meet those, then decisions will be made - can costs be reduced by having fewer staff, shorter opening hours etc and ultimately if the store is loss making it will be closed, no question. None of the big retailers want loss making stores on their books - they simply can't afford them. And it may actually better for them to close the store and pay the rent to the landlord of an empty unit, because the additional costs of having the unit open may actually worsen the loss.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Google forecasts it - but how good that forecast is, who knows. It's certainly not being driven by any data the retailers are giving Google.

Retailers will be able to forecast it pretty accurately using their till data. People are very predictable, by and large.

 

[A0]

Retailers will be able to forecast it pretty accurately using their till data. People are very predictable, by and large.

You'd be surprised how *unpredictable* it is. Local factors can throw a complete curve-ball in.

An example for yesterday would be the thunderstorms which broke out across East Anglia - highly localised, that would be enough to throw any such forecast out.

 

[johncrossley]

Perhaps cross-subsidy only becomes relevant when most services are profitable but some are not. In Britain (outside London) we have profitable services because fares are unregulated. In London and probably most places outside Britain, it would be unacceptable to increase fares to levels that would make many routes profitable. Even if some are profitable, it would only be a small proportion of routes. In other countries there may be other reasons why profitability isn't possible even on a busy route with relatively high fares, even if they have slashed costs by franchising. For example, high vehicle standards mandated by the council/state or the need for the bus to wait at railway stations for long periods to maintain connections. So if there is cross-subsidy, it would be a case of transferring subsidy from a loss-making route to an even more loss-making route. The authority in charge could still have the discipline to withdraw routes which lose a lot of money, which may become necessary anyway from time to time due to periodic funding cuts.

 

[edwin_m]

If the Council were able to formally regulate the service, rather than owning and having a majority of seats on the Board of the local monopoly bus company, what do you think they'd do differently?

Deregulation laws forbid the council to subsidise the operator, although they can allow it to plough operating surpluses back into the business rather than expecting a return as a normal shareholder would. So there is some scope for more cross-subsidy in municipal operators, which is probably why many (not all) of the cities that have one also have better bus services than elsewhere. But too much cross-subsidy means the operator either goes directly out of business, or has to charge high fares that leave them open to competition on their profitable core routes, which if not addressed would ultimately put them out of business anyway.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Perhaps cross-subsidy only becomes relevant when most services are profitable but some are not. In Britain (outside London) we have profitable services because fares are unregulated. In London and probably most places outside Britain, it would be unacceptable to increase fares to levels that would make many routes profitable. Even if some are profitable, it would only be a small proportion of routes. In other countries there may be other reasons why profitability isn't possible even on a busy route with relatively high fares, even if they have slashed costs by franchising. For example, high vehicle standards mandated by the council/state or the need for the bus to wait at railway stations for long periods to maintain connections. So if there is cross-subsidy, it would be a case of transferring subsidy from a loss-making route to an even more loss-making route. The authority in charge could still have the discipline to withdraw routes which lose a lot of money, which may become necessary anyway from time to time due to periodic funding cuts.

You do realise just how much fares are subsidised in other cities? Even London is less reliant on subsidy that say Paris or Amsterdam where farebox revenues on public transport constitute c.40% of income, and that's before you get to other British cities.

If money is no object, you can have anything you like but you won't find a politician promising that and the attendant taxation to go with it. You might be affluent enough or altruistic enough to pay more taxes but politicians think "how will this make me look" and so you can forget that. Quite simply, there is a long established view in Europe that is massively different to the UK in many respects, and I don't think that has narrowed since 2016.

Another argument on cross-subsidy is London itself. Much of the subsidy to London's buses is courtesy of a profit on the Underground. However, even before Covid, tube patronage was down, reducing the ability to cross-subsidise. That subsidy had failed to stop falling bus patronage - a decline perhaps attributable to a failure to address traffic congestion and lower road speeds. Faced with a choice of increasing resources (and costs), they have instead pared back services and so affecting bus revenue that the tube has to work harder to bridge the gap.

 

[johncrossley]

You do realise just how much fares are subsidised in other cities?

That's basically what I said earlier. The UK situation (outside London and NI) is niche, so the whole question of cross-subsidy doesn't really arise.

 

[stuu]

Google forecasts it - but how good that forecast is, who knows. It's certainly not being driven by any data the retailers are giving Google. It's not like Google Maps where there is data available from bodies like the Highways Agency about how busy roads are.

The data for both traffic on maps and how busy businesses are come from mobile phone data. They have billions of data points so the forecasts are very accurate

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That's basically what I said earlier. The UK situation (outside London and NI) is niche, so the whole question of cross-subsidy doesn't really arise.

In that if you have sufficient money, you can charge next to nothing.... Well, yes, you can. However, in the UK....

 

[daodao]

Major factors outwith bus operators' control that have reduced local public transport demand need to be considered, such as:

• the nature, location and layout of many new housing developments make them unattractive to serve by bus. An example is the new estate on the former Woodford aerodrome; the sole bus service running nearby is an hourly (evenings excepted) service (42B) that does not run to the nearest major town (Stockport).
• The relocation of many key public services to out of town locations. An example is the new Grange University Hospital on the edge of Cwmbran, which is now the main acute hospital for the Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB). Newport Transport serve it with a single route (29), which runs every 30/60 minutes, but not after 2030. Compare its accessibility by public transport with that of Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, formerly ABHB's main acute hospital.
• The development of out of town retail and entertainment facilities, with large car parks, and reduction in such facilities in town centres. An example is Marks and Spencer's large store at the Handforth Dean retail park and closure of its Stockport town centre store. Handforth Dean's sole regular bus service is an hourly (evenings and Sundays excepted) service (42C) that does not run to the nearest major town (Stockport).

 

[johncrossley]

Major factors outwith bus operators' control that have reduced local public transport demand need to be considered, such as:

• the nature, location and layout of many new housing developments make them unattractive to serve by bus. An example is the new estate on the former Woodford aerodrome; the sole bus service running nearby is an hourly (evenings excepted) service (42B) that does not run to the nearest major town (Stockport).
• The relocation of many key public services to out of town locations. An example is the new Grange University Hospital on the edge of Cwmbran, which is now the main acute hospital for the Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB). Newport Transport serve it with a single route (29), which runs every 30/60 minutes, but not after 2030. Compare its accessibility by public transport with that of Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, formerly ABHB's main acute hospital.
• The development of out of town retail and entertainment facilities, with large car parks, and reduction in such facilities in town centres. An example is Marks and Spencer's large store at the Handforth Dean retail park and closure of its Stockport town centre store. Handforth Dean's sole regular bus service is an hourly (evenings and Sundays excepted) service (42C) that does not run to the nearest major town (Stockport).

These trends became less common from the 90s onwards. Big leisure complexes continued to be built, but more likely near town centres. Still with substantial car parking but more accessible to people without cars. In addition, we have seen huge growth of town/city centre living. Many town centre shops have been closed to make way for flats. There are vast tower blocks currently being built in Woking. Local councils, in the SE in particular, are reluctant to build in the green belt and so building flats is easier politically. A lot of these developments have limited car parking.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

In addition, we have seen huge growth of town/city centre living. Many town centre shops have been closed to make way for flats.

These are also reasons outwith bus company control that have impacted ridership. Town centres are less of the draw than they were whilst we've also seen the creation of many more local supermarkets that has contributed to this.

However, the biggest killer to bus patronage is traffic congestion, reducing reliability and attractiveness whilst increasing costs.

 

[Dai Corner]

The relocation of many key public services to out of town locations. An example is the new Grange University Hospital on the edge of Cwmbran, which is now the main acute hospital for the Aneurin Bevan Health Board (ABHB). Newport Transport serve it with a single route (29), which runs every 30/60 minutes, but not after 2030. Compare its accessibility by public transport with that of Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, formerly ABHB's main acute hospital.

The two commercial operators who between them run about ten limited stop buses an hour between Newport and Cwmbran could have rerouted them to serve the hospital with little or no time penalty chose not to so it was left to Newport Transport to serve it on the slow route via Caerleon and Ponthir.

 

[johncrossley]

These are also reasons outwith bus company control that have impacted ridership. Town centres are less of the draw than they were whilst we've also seen the creation of many more local supermarkets that has contributed to this.

These flats reduce the need for local buses, but are good news for sustainable transport in general, as they can do most of their local trips on foot and for long distance they can use the train, or maybe inter-urban buses.

 

[daodao]

These trends became less common from the 90s onwards.

I have not noticed this - is it primarily a London phenomenon?

 

[johncrossley]

I have not noticed this - is it primarily a London phenomenon?

It is probably a commuter region phenomenon. Obviously the SE is the most typical, but the other big cities have seen a lot of growth in flat building, notably Manchester.

 

[Dai Corner]

It is probably a commuter region phenomenon. Obviously the SE is the most typical, but the other big cities have seen a lot of growth in flat building, notably Manchester.

Even smaller cities like Newport have seen hundreds of flats built within walking distance of the city centre.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

These flats reduce the need for local buses, but are good news for sustainable transport in general, as they can do most of their local trips on foot and for long distance they can use the train, or maybe inter-urban buses.

As a keen cyclist, I'm a great advocate for sustainable transport. However, it's clear that's one factor behind bus patronage falling. Another issue is not the large out of town developments of the 1990s; they are less prevalent simply because the opportunities were so reduced. It's the building of local supermarkets (thinking mainly of Aldi/Lidl) that reduce travel requirements.

Happy to hammer poor operators but even the good ones are at the whim of demographics, changes to social and leisure patterns, etc.

I have not noticed this - is it primarily a London phenomenon?

Not really. If you were to travel into Manchester from Stretford (as one example), there are loads of new flats for city centre living (not least Beetham Tower). Same with Bristol if you travel in from Avonmouth through Hotwells (opposite the Great Britain). Even saw it in St Helens the other day with loads of new flats right by the canal and train station.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a keen cyclist, I'm a great advocate for sustainable transport. However, it's clear that's one factor behind bus patronage falling. Another issue is not the large out of town developments of the 1990s; they are less prevalent simply because the opportunities were so reduced. It's the building of local supermarkets (thinking mainly of Aldi/Lidl) that reduce travel requirements.

Happy to hammer poor operators but even the good ones are at the whim of demographics, changes to social and leisure patterns, etc.

I think pubs shutting at different times would also have an effect. If you had a 23something last bus 20 years ago on a Friday/Saturday you'd pick up people from the closing pubs who weren't going onto a club. Now closing times in town/city centres are more staggered and so people are more likely to use taxis. Add to that that using a taxi is now much, much easier than it was - no faffing with cash, no possibility for the driver to overcharge as the app charges what the meter says automatically, no phoning up a busy, barely understandable call centre in a noisy setting to book and being told "5 minutes" whether it'd be 30 seconds or an hour, no trying to work out which car is yours. Private hire taxis have got markedly better with the apps, buses have stayed basically the same.

 

[edwin_m]

It's the building of local supermarkets (thinking mainly of Aldi/Lidl) that reduce travel requirements.

I very much doubt many people would use the bus to access a large, less local, supermarket. Anyone with a car available is likely to use it simply because they would be buying too much to carry (and they are often buying fuel as well). People without a car would use their nearest shop, supermarket or otherwise, to buy a smaller amount. So I'd say a redistribution of shopping demand from larger to smaller supermarkets is probably largely neutral for bus patronage.

Specific "shopper buses" may be an exception, but I suspect the number using these is a vanishingly small proportion of total supermarket patronage.

 

[carlberry]

The two commercial operators who between them run about ten limited stop buses an hour between Newport and Cwmbran could have rerouted them to serve the hospital with little or no time penalty chose not to so it was left to Newport Transport to serve it on the slow route via Caerleon and Ponthir.

I realise it's getting outside the general discussion however I cant see how those routes could serve the Grange without at least a 5 minute hit, more likely 8 or even 10. Given that the Newport-Cwmbran time is 15 minutes then it's a major hit on the service. As it's one of the few examples of competitive services left then, if there was a major traffic flow, one of the operators would already have done this (even only on some journeys) if they thought they'd pick up more passengers than they'd lose by making the service much slower.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I very much doubt many people would use the bus to access a large, less local, supermarket.

Non car owners very often do, or did - bus to the supermarket, taxi back with the shopping. That's why supermarkets used to have taxi phones near the exit to put you straight through to the local company.

I suspect deliveries may have reduced this, plus people just using taxis both ways as they're easier to use with the apps.

The point he was making - and he's right - is that Tesco Express/Sainsbury's Local/Co-op have transformed local small supermarkets from highly overpriced, poorly stocked corner shops to good quality and well-stocked, so if you don't mind slight reductions in options and a slightly higher price it's entirely feasible to live only from shopping in those stores. 20 years ago it wasn't - corner shops were just rubbish. You've also got Aldi opening up in lots of suburbs as he said.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I very much doubt many people would use the bus to access a large, less local, supermarket. Anyone with a car available is likely to use it simply because they would be buying too much to carry (and they are often buying fuel as well). People without a car would use their nearest shop, supermarket or otherwise, to buy a smaller amount. So I'd say a redistribution of shopping demand from larger to smaller supermarkets is probably largely neutral for bus patronage.

You might doubt that but it's absolutely the case. Quite simply, you would have people who would nip into town and get a couple of bags of shopping, once or twice a week. That just doesn't happen when the neighbourhood Aldi opens.

I remember the case of Tesco opening a new store in Exmouth about 30 years ago, and patronage on the town services fell by nearly 20% almost overnight.

 

[daodao]

Not really. If you were to travel into Manchester from Stretford (as one example), there are loads of new flats for city centre living (not least Beetham Tower). Same with Bristol if you travel in from Avonmouth through Hotwells (opposite the Great Britain). Even saw it in St Helens the other day with loads of new flats right by the canal and train station.

While I may live in Greater Manchester (just), I have not travelled north of Stretford for over a year, and do most of my local travelling (solely by car) within Cheshire itself. I thought that people are now seeking properties with a garden (private or communal).

Incidentally, TfGM are discouraging public transport use; I visited the enquiry office at Altrincham station yesterday, and there was a loudspeaker announcement in the adjacent bus station advising prospective passengers only to use public transport if they have no alternative. I have taken this message on board.

 

[johncrossley]

We're just copying what other countries have long done in having smaller supermarkets relatively close to where you live, and that's surely a good thing, as it means fewer car trips, or at least shorter car trips, even if it means fewer bus trips as well. For years it was assumed you couldn't live without a car, but such a lifestyle has become easier. Food shopping can be delivered or picked up from a local supermarket within walking distance, instead of driving to the out of town Tesco. Other shopping can be done online, instead of driving to the out of town warehouse type store, and either delivered or picked up at an Amazon locker (in a town centre or railway station) or local collection point. Instead of driving to an out of town business park or factory, work started to become more concentrated in city centre offices, and now Covid means that such work can be done from home at least some of the time.

 

[daodao]

For years it was assumed you couldn't live without a car, but such a lifestyle has become easier.

Only in selected places. It isn't really feasible in Cheshire, or that part of Cheshire now subsumed within Greater Manchester, unless one lives within a 10 minute walk of a major town centre like Altrincham or Macclesfield.

 

[johncrossley]

Only in selected places. It isn't really feasible in Cheshire, or that part of Cheshire now subsumed within Greater Manchester.

People who want to live such a lifestyle will move to an appropriate area where it is easier. However I'd be surprised if someone couldn't do all the things I just mentioned living in Altrincham or Sale, assuming flats near the tram stop exist in those areas (I presume they do, given their reputation as commuter havens). They can get a job in Manchester city centre and commute by tram which runs every 6 minutes. Supermarkets deliver there. Fibre broadband surely exists. Amazon lockers presumably exist. I'd be surprised if that area wasn't well served by Uber-style taxi firms.

 

[daodao]

People who want to live such a lifestyle will move to an appropriate area where it is easier. However I'd be surprised if someone couldn't do all the things I just mentioned living in Altrincham or Sale, assuming flats near the tram stop exist in those areas (I presume they do, given their reputation as commuter havens). They can get a job in Manchester city centre and commute by tram which runs every 6 minutes. Supermarkets deliver there. Fibre broadband surely exists. Amazon lockers presumably exist. I'd be surprised if that area wasn't well served by Uber-style taxi firms.

Only if one lives within a 10 minute walk of a major town centre like Altrincham or Macclesfield. It is not practicable if one lives 20 minutes walk away.