Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[Bikeman78]

If people are hypochondriac enough to stress about working in a shop floor environment they are in the wrong job. It’s not as if masks make much (if any) difference and by now they will now have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.

In any case I’d suggest the staff taking it upon themselves to order customers about aren’t stressed, at all, they just enjoy being jobsworths.

My recollection is that staff in my local Sainsburys only started wearing masks when it was mandatory. Now they are far more lax about them than most customers, having them below the nose and often pulling them down completely to chat with each other. None of this bothers me but it would be rather hypocritical to complain about customers not wearing masks.

 

[Pete_uk]

Seems to me like the scientists are in a lather about the lifting of restrictions, hence some of the back peddling that's going on. I dread to think what projected data they are being shown.

As for the masks, I can see to many people not wearing them in places like the tube for the authorities to do anything about it. I just don't see the practicality in some TOCs mandating them and others not. A recipe for confusion.

 

[Bikeman78]

Seems to me like the scientists are in a lather about the lifting of restrictions, hence some of the back peddling that's going on. I dread to think what projected data they are being shown.

As for the masks, I can see to many people not wearing them in places like the tube for the authorities to do anything about it. I just don't see the practicality in some TOCs mandating them and others not. A recipe for confusion.

Totally agree. Enforcement is already minimal and close to zero on DOO trains. Last week I was in the front coach of a pair of Desiros and the guard came round to check tickets. I'd taken my mask off as there was no one else in the carriage. He said "don't worry about your mask, we're all sick of them and there's no one else in the carriage anyway."

 

[HSTEd]

Given this article in the Economist, it is essentially that all lockdown measures be ended as rapidly as possible before they become further entrenched

Boris johnson can often channel John Bull, a ruddy cartoon figure from Georgian England. He personified the liberty-loving English yeoman, in opposition to Napoleonic tyranny. Announcing England’s first pandemic lockdown in March 2020, Mr Johnson lamented “taking away the ancient, inalienable right of free-born people of the United Kingdom to go to the pub”. Government behavioural scientists warned that Britons would defy even modest restrictions, and fretted about disorder and looting.

Anything that is not gone this summer is highly unlikely to ever go.

 

[island]

If I am reading this correctly it says 19% of people surveyed think the UK a should have a permanent 10pm curfew and 26% think nightclubs and casinos should never reopen.

Who fills out these polls? This one was Ipsos MORI which I would have thought more reliable than Yougov.

 

[liam456]

I can't believe I'm typing these words, but I'm thanking my lucky stars for a conservative government right now.

(off to have a shower right now after that.... )

 

[DelayRepay]

If I am reading this correctly it says 19% of people surveyed think the UK a should have a permanent 10pm curfew and 26% think nightclubs and casinos should never reopen.

Who fills out these polls?

Obviously people who do not go out after 10pm. Maybe the poll was only open between 10pm - midnight?!

 

[quantinghome]

I can't believe I'm typing these words, but I'm thanking my lucky stars for a conservative government right now.

(off to have a shower right now after that.... )

Why? The government is essentially repeating the mistake it made back in September 2020, when they first announced we had to 'learn to live with the virus', and look how that panned out. Yes, vaccines have changed the picture but there are all sorts of problems with the government plan as it stands - principally that test & trace has never worked properly and despite having had nearly a year to sort it out it's still an almighty mess. Combine that with a much more transmissible variant than last summer, tens of millions still unvaccinated, and insufficient testing capacity, the chances of something going horribly wrong are pretty high. At best we'll have a chaotic situation where know one knows what the right thing to do is in a given situation - because we're asked to use our own judgement but aren't given sufficient information to do so. And at worst we'll incubate an even worse variant which escapes the vaccine, admittedly a worse case scenario.

It's assumed that the release of legal restraints will mean things will return to normal pretty quickly, I don't think that's how it will pan out. And while it's very unlikely we will see deaths on the same scale, the effects of millions going down with the virus are still going to be significant in terms of disruption to our lives.

 

[kristiang85]

If I am reading this correctly it says 19% of people surveyed think the UK a should have a permanent 10pm curfew and 26% think nightclubs and casinos should never reopen.

Who fills out these polls? This one was Ipsos MORI which I would have thought more reliable than Yougov.

People who have had their youth and are perfectly happy for nobody else to be able to experience fun...

 

[Dent]

Why? The government is essentially repeating the mistake it made back in September 2020, when they first announced we had to 'learn to live with the virus', and look how that panned out. Yes, vaccines have changed the picture but there are all sorts of problems with the government plan as it stands - principally that test & trace has never worked properly and despite having had nearly a year to sort it out it's still an almighty mess. Combine that with a much more transmissible variant than last summer, tens of millions still unvaccinated, and insufficient testing capacity, the chances of something going horribly wrong are pretty high. At best we'll have a chaotic situation where know one knows what the right thing to do is in a given situation - because we're asked to use our own judgement but aren't given sufficient information to do so. And at worst we'll incubate an even worse variant which escapes the vaccine, admittedly a worse case scenario.

It's assumed that the release of legal restraints will mean things will return to normal pretty quickly, I don't think that's how it will pan out. And while it's very unlikely we will see deaths on the same scale, the effects of millions going down with the virus are still going to be significant in terms of disruption to our lives.

What alternative do you suggest? The release had already been delayed to the point that any further delay will push the exit wave into winter when the health service is always under strain, and will eat into the peak holiday season when the hospitality industry can ill afford to be under restrictions.

 

[kez19]

If I am reading this correctly it says 19% of people surveyed think the UK a should have a permanent 10pm curfew and 26% think nightclubs and casinos should never reopen.

Who fills out these polls? This one was Ipsos MORI which I would have thought more reliable than Yougov.

I wonder how a 10pm curfew would work?

Aaah the saddos are out in force not wanting the nightlife culture back - what sad people they really are!

I wonder if the polls had asked differently if questions were - no TV/no Radio or social media (banned from using internet at 10pm etc), i'll bet opinion would be different.

 

[quantinghome]

What alternative do you suggest? The release had already been delayed to the point that any further delay will push the exit wave into winter when the health service is always under strain, and will eat into the peak holiday season when the hospitality industry can ill afford to be under restrictions.

I do see the logic of the exit wave happening now rather than later, for precisely the reason you give - better to have the inevitable exit wave over the summer rather than autumn/winter.

But the government doesn't seem to have a plan to manage or minimise the effects of the exit wave, and there will be significant consequences particularly if it is uncontrolled (as it inevitably will be under the government's 'let it rip' approach). Most people may be sufficiently aware of the efficacy of the vaccines not to be afraid of dying from Covid, but they will be rightly apprehensive about catching it, or unknowingly passing it on to others, if they live in an area with soaring case rates. Ask yourself how the hospitality industry will cope in peak holiday season when people decide to keep out of each other's way and half the staff (mostly young and so not yet fully vaccinated) go down with it or have to self-isolate as close contacts? Bear in mind this is the best case scenario assuming deaths 'only' get into the low hundreds.

 

[yorkie]

Why? The government is essentially repeating the mistake it made back in September 2020, when they first announced we had to 'learn to live with the virus', and look how that panned out. Yes, vaccines have changed the picture but there are all sorts of problems with the government plan as it stands - principally that test & trace has never worked properly and despite having had nearly a year to sort it out it's still an almighty mess.

As you say things are different now. As for T&T, we don't need that going forward .

Combine that with a much more transmissible variant than last summer..

A better way to put it is that the virus has increased fitness, which is absolutely in line with expectations.

tens of millions still unvaccinated,

86.6% of adults in the UK have been vaccinated with at least one dose now, and that number is increasing nicely.

and insufficient testing capacity, the chances of something going horribly wrong are pretty high.

What did you have in mind? I can't think of anything that would be reasonably described as going "horribly wrong" and having a "pretty high" chance of happening. If you have evidence of your claim, I'd be interested to hear it, and I look forward to debunking it.

At best we'll have a chaotic situation where know one knows what the right thing to do is in a given situation - because we're asked to use our own judgement but aren't given sufficient information to do so. And at worst we'll incubate an even worse variant which escapes the vaccine, admittedly a worse case scenario.

Could you use any more hyperbole if you tried? The use of the term "incubate" is inaccurate. Any suggestion that the vaccines can be rendered useless are completely unfounded and go against what leading virologists and immunologists are saying.

Who do you get this inaccurate info from? I assume you are not making this up and are reading this scaremongering claptrap somewhere else?

It's assumed that the release of legal restraints will mean things will return to normal pretty quickly, I don't think that's how it will pan out.

Do you have any good reason for this?

And while it's very unlikely we will see deaths on the same scale

It's impossible! The vaccines do work!

the effects of millions going down with the virus are still going to be significant in terms of disruption to our lives.

The biggest problem right now is the nonsense of fit & healthy people being told to isolate, but that's a political decision to placate people who have similar views to yourself, who don't appear to believe in the effectiveness of vaccines.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2021 ==

Yes we're fortunate that they don't mutate in a evasive way and vaccines provide very long lasting immunity. For now Covid has not mutated to completely evade vaccines, but if it does the best I think we can hope for is giving updated boosters to the same cohorts who get annual flu shots as a minimum and hoping the virus follows natural laws of mutations to be less serious long term.

Coronaviruses mutate sufficiently enough to continue to circulate in a state of endemic equilibrium.

People who are pro-restrictions/lockdowns tend to either claim that they can mutate so much that our adaptive immune response is worthless (which is absolutely nonsensical) and therefore we should lockdown indefinitely on that basis, or alternatively claim that we can eliminate the virus in a so-called "Zero Covid" (!) strategy, and ignore the obvious fact that the virus will continue to circulate.

Their arguments make as much sense as a Japanese VCR instruction manual.

 

[island]

I don’t think anyone using emotive terms like “‘let it rip’ approach” is likely to be interested in rational argument.

 

[yorkie]

I don’t think anyone using emotive terms like “‘let it rip’ approach” is likely to be interested in rational argument.

Indeed.

@quantinghome I ask you this: do we let the existing seasonal coronaviruses and rhinoviruses "rip"? What do you even mean by using this nonsensical phrase?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2021 ==

My recollection is that staff in my local Sainsburys only started wearing masks when it was mandatory. Now they are far more lax about them than most customers, having them below the nose and often pulling them down completely to chat with each other. None of this bothers me but it would be rather hypocritical to complain about customers not wearing masks.

Mask wearing is all about authoritarianism, pure & simple. And I can assure you that authoritarians do enjoy being hypocritical.

 

[nlogax]

86.6% of adults in the UK have been vaccinated with at least one dose now, and that number is increasing nicely.

Not quite that simple. The uptake rate has visibly dropped in the last couple of weeks and there is zero constraint on vaccine supply. It's hard to say whether this is because there are thousands of younger people who have recently tested positive and therefore unable to have the vaccine immediately, or if there's a simple lack of desire to get jabbed. Either way vaccine rates really need to get moving upwards again.

 

[quantinghome]

@quantinghome I ask you this: do we let the existing seasonal coronaviruses and rhinoviruses "rip"? What do you even mean by using this nonsensical phrase?

If you object to a colloquialism then I'll rephrase 'let it rip' as 'circulate with no restrictions (legally enforced or otherwise) so it reaches the entire population'. Seasonal viruses are already in endemic equilbrium, and have a much lower R0 than the Delta variant. Long term of course Covid-19 will eventually reach an equilibrium but it's clearly not there yet, as we can see from the surging case rate.

It's how we minimise the damage of the exit wave that now concerns me. Once again the government hasn't really got a proper plan and is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

Mask wearing is all about authoritarianism, pure & simple. And I can assure you that authoritarians do enjoy being hypocritical.

I just don't get the mask wearing = authoritarianism thing. Personally I find it the least intrusive thing I've had to put up with over the last 16 months. Appreciate you have a very different view. We'll never agree so I'll not push the point any further.

 

[Domh245]

It's how we minimise the damage of the exit wave that now concerns me. Once again the government hasn't really got a proper plan and is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

Ensuring that the most vulnerable are vaccinated would be a good start, as would making sure we don't dump the exit wave into the middle of 'peak' season for healthcare

I just don't get the mask wearing = authoritarianism thing. Personally I find it the least intrusive thing I've had to put up with over the last 16 months. Appreciate you have a very different view. We'll never agree so I'll not push the point any further.

Just because it's the "least" intrusive doesn't mean it isn't intrusive.

A timely reminder of the definition of authoritarianism may help remind you why mask mandates are authoritarian. It's not the most authoritarian thing in the world, but trying to argue it isn't authoritarian is to deny the obvious.

"favouring or enforcing strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom"

 

[yorkie]

If you object to a colloquialism then I'll rephrase 'let it rip' as 'circulate with no restrictions (legally enforced or otherwise) so it reaches the entire population'.

How would you propose to avoid this virus having the same reach as other Coronaviruses?

Seasonal viruses are already in endemic equilbrium

And this one needs to be, too.

, and have a much lower R0 than the Delta variant.

I don't think you know what R0 means; it means the reproductive value without any immunity or mitigations.

Long term of course Covid-19 will eventually reach an equilibrium but it's clearly not there yet, as we can see from the surging case rate.

Yes but it will get there. What do you propose ? how long do you think it's viable to restrict us for? Weeks, months, years?

It's how we minimise the damage of the exit wave that now concerns me. Once again the government hasn't really got a proper plan and is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

And your proposal is...?

I just don't get the mask wearing = authoritarianism thing.

That much is obvious but the evidence is there for all to see.

Personally I find it the least intrusive thing I've had to put up with over the last 16 months.

Just because you've found it easy isn't a good justification to mandate that others wear them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2021 ==

Ensuring that the most vulnerable are vaccinated would be a good start

And we achieved that a long time ago.

, as would making sure we don't dump the exit wave into the middle of 'peak' season for healthcare

I also agree; delaying reopening until the autumn would be a bad idea.

Just because it's the "least" intrusive doesn't mean it isn't intrusive.

A timely reminder of the definition of authoritarianism may help remind you why mask mandates are authoritarian. It's not the most authoritarian thing in the world, but trying to argue it isn't authoritarian is to deny the obvious.

"favouring or enforcing strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom"

Indeed, agreed.

 

[MattA7]

Not quite that simple. The uptake rate has visibly dropped in the last couple of weeks and there is zero constraint on vaccine supply. It's hard to say whether this is because there are thousands of younger people who have recently tested positive and therefore unable to have the vaccine immediately, or if there's a simple lack of desire to get jabbed. Either way vaccine rates really need to get moving upwards again.

From what I have been told the drop in vaccination rates is due to the fact younger people are more likely to refuse the vaccine than the older population. Not sure if this is due to the fact younger people are more likely to be anti-Vaxer or they feel that it’s unnecessary due to the odds of death being lower. If I recall correctly The death rate for covid has reduced from 1 in 60 to 1 in 1000 due to the vaccine and advances in treatments.

 

[brad465]

Sorry to bring pessimism into this, but I expect that in the next few days we'll see/hear relentless pressure in the media from those who want restrictions to continue trying to force the Government's hand. Given the decision is supposed to be confirmed on Monday, most of any such calls will be made tomorrow to Sunday, although the Euro's final may overshadow a lot of it later on. How much of an effect they actually have though is anyone's guess, Javid seems to be solid on this going ahead and him conceding would be the biggest climbdown of the pandemic so far, but would be far from the first.

 

[Freightmaster]

From what I have been told the drop in vaccination rates is due to the fact younger people are more likely to refuse the vaccine than the older population. Not sure if this is due to the fact younger people are more likely to be anti-Vaxer or they feel that it’s unnecessary due to the odds of death being lower...

I thought young people were terrified of 'Long Covid'??





MARK

 

[Richard Scott]

I thought young people were terrified of 'Long Covid'??





MARK

From my experience the majority couldn't care less about this virus and just want to get on with their lives.

 

[brad465]

From what I have been told the drop in vaccination rates is due to the fact younger people are more likely to refuse the vaccine than the older population. Not sure if this is due to the fact younger people are more likely to be anti-Vaxer or they feel that it’s unnecessary due to the odds of death being lower. If I recall correctly The death rate for covid has reduced from 1 in 60 to 1 in 1000 due to the vaccine and advances in treatments.

First doses are apparently at 86.6% of the adult population, so it would make sense if we're nearly at maximum uptake, but is still a very high rate nonetheless.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Why? The government is essentially repeating the mistake it made back in September 2020, when they first announced we had to 'learn to live with the virus', and look how that panned out. Yes, vaccines have changed the picture but there are all sorts of problems with the government plan as it stands - principally that test & trace has never worked properly and despite having had nearly a year to sort it out it's still an almighty mess. Combine that with a much more transmissible variant than last summer, tens of millions still unvaccinated, and insufficient testing capacity, the chances of something going horribly wrong are pretty high. At best we'll have a chaotic situation where know one knows what the right thing to do is in a given situation - because we're asked to use our own judgement but aren't given sufficient information to do so. And at worst we'll incubate an even worse variant which escapes the vaccine, admittedly a worse case scenario.

It's assumed that the release of legal restraints will mean things will return to normal pretty quickly, I don't think that's how it will pan out. And while it's very unlikely we will see deaths on the same scale, the effects of millions going down with the virus are still going to be significant in terms of disruption to our lives.

I’m sorry are we back in March 2020? With no vaccine? No we certainly are not, Living with Covid is literally the only thing we have to do at this point forward, do you think the economy could withstand further restrictions and lockdowns? I’m beginning to think you don’t ever want normality to return.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jul 2021 ==

I do see the logic of the exit wave happening now rather than later, for precisely the reason you give - better to have the inevitable exit wave over the summer rather than autumn/winter.

But the government doesn't seem to have a plan to manage or minimise the effects of the exit wave, and there will be significant consequences particularly if it is uncontrolled (as it inevitably will be under the government's 'let it rip' approach). Most people may be sufficiently aware of the efficacy of the vaccines not to be afraid of dying from Covid, but they will be rightly apprehensive about catching it, or unknowingly passing it on to others, if they live in an area with soaring case rates. Ask yourself how the hospitality industry will cope in peak holiday season when people decide to keep out of each other's way and half the staff (mostly young and so not yet fully vaccinated) go down with it or have to self-isolate as close contacts? Bear in mind this is the best case scenario assuming deaths 'only' get into the low hundreds.

The Government could spend years planning an “exit strategy” the hard truth is this: We must live with Covid. Pure and simple, the vulnerable are vaccinated which was the original goal post.

When I see big football crowds gathering with no spike and tv presenters who social distance for the cameras, but are leaning next to each other for a selfie that tells that this thing has ran its course.

 

[philosopher]

Not quite that simple. The uptake rate has visibly dropped in the last couple of weeks and there is zero constraint on vaccine supply. It's hard to say whether this is because there are thousands of younger people who have recently tested positive and therefore unable to have the vaccine immediately, or if there's a simple lack of desire to get jabbed. Either way vaccine rates really need to get moving upwards again.

Realistically you are not going to get 100% adults vaccinated though. Wales appears to be topping out at about 90% vaccination, which could be the limit to how many adults will get vaccinated in the UK, so there are probably not many people left who want the vaccine but have not yet had it. Of those 10% who don't get the vaccine, a large chunk of them will have some natural immunity from past infection.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

From what I have been told the drop in vaccination rates is due to the fact younger people are more likely to refuse the vaccine than the older population. Not sure if this is due to the fact younger people are more likely to be anti-Vaxer or they feel that it’s unnecessary due to the odds of death being lower. If I recall correctly The death rate for covid has reduced from 1 in 60 to 1 in 1000 due to the vaccine and advances in treatments.

The drop in take up as the vaccine rolled out to younger age bands was forecast by the government/their supporting experts some time ago. I read it in a backing paper following a press article. No I don't have a copy - these things crop up, I have a glance then I move on to something else.

 

[NorthKent1989]

From my experience the majority couldn't care less about this virus and just want to get on with their lives.

That’s becoming a small majority I feel, people have had enough, it’s only those who want to be seen as being

A: Virtuous and holier than thou
B: Enjoy furlough
C: Are by and large pretty well and couldn’t care less about how lockdowns have reduced the majorities income and finances
D: Are quite happy for the government to keep shifting the goalposts with out understand the full implications.

That still want this to continue

 

[DelayRepay]

Realistically you are not going to get 100% adults vaccinated though. Wales appears to be topping out at about 90% vaccination, which could be the limit to how many adults will get vaccinated in the UK, so there are probably not many people left who want the vaccine but have not yet had it. Of those 10% who don't get the vaccine, a large chunk of them will have some natural immunity from past infection.

I think we'll see an uplift in first doses over the next few days. They government's 'bribes' allowing vaccinated people to avoid isolation following a contact, and removing quarantine requirements for the amber countries, will encourage a lot more people to go for their jab. I can imagine the vaccine centres being busy at the weekend, I hope they've got plenty of stock.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jul 2021 ==

That’s becoming a small majority I feel, people have had enough, it’s only those who want to be seen as being

A: Virtuous and holier than thou
B: Enjoy furlough
C: Are by and large pretty well and couldn’t care less about how lockdowns have reduced the majorities income and finances
D: Are quite happy for the government to keep shifting the goalposts with out understand the full implications.

That still want this to continue

I think there's another group: Those who do not like the rules and restrictions, but have been terrified by the last 16 months of press coverage and the predictions of doom we are seeing at the moment.

I think there are a lot of people who want to get back to normal, but will find it very difficult given we've been told for more than a year that going within two meters of another person can spread the disease and kill the elderly.

I know quite a few people who would fall into this group (in fact, probably more than your groups A - D).

 

[AlterEgo]

If I am reading this correctly it says 19% of people surveyed think the UK a should have a permanent 10pm curfew and 26% think nightclubs and casinos should never reopen.

Who fills out these polls? This one was Ipsos MORI which I would have thought more reliable than Yougov.

A frankly unbelievable survey and I’m not buying that the results are real.