Proposal: Extend Aberystwyth to Birmingham services to London?

[Sad Sprinter]

Would there be any advantage in extending the TfW service from West Wales to Euston from Birmingham International by sacrificing an existing Euston to Birmingham service? Whilst it would create an all-day link from West Wales to London, it would just be a job of merging two services together rather than create an entirely new service. Of course, it would mean that there would be rural West Wales stations operated by Avanti which of course, would be away from their critical mass of operations. But could there be any benefit to such a merger of services?

 

[bramling]

Would there be any advantage in extending the TfW service from West Wales to Euston from Birmingham International by sacrificing an existing Euston to Birmingham service? Whilst it would create an all-day link from West Wales to London, it would just be a job of merging two services together rather than create an entirely new service. Of course, it would mean that there would be rural West Wales stations operated by Avanti which of course, would be away from their critical mass of operations. But could there be any benefit to such a merger of services?

It certainly sits in the “would be nice” box, but in practice there’s quite a few factors which make it impractical.

What stock is going to run? You could probably run something like a Voyager onto the Cambrian fairly feasibly if ETCS were fitted. The reverse isn’t really viable - 90 or 100 mph units to Euston isn’t going to be on.

I’d say on balance having robust connections, and maximising capacity on the Cambrian, would probably be more beneficial, and certainly get more value for the expenditure.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It certainly sits in the “would be nice” box, but in practice there’s quite a few factors which make it impractical.

What stock is going to run? You could probably run something like a Voyager onto the Cambrian fairly feasibly if ETCS were fitted. The reverse isn’t really viable - 90 or 100 mph units to Euston isn’t going to be on.

I’d say on balance having robust connections, and maximising capacity on the Cambrian, would probably be more beneficial, and certainly get more value for the expenditure.

Why would a Voyager need ECTS to be fitted to run on the Cambrian line?

 

[zwk500]

Would there be any advantage in extending the TfW service from West Wales to Euston from Birmingham International by sacrificing an existing Euston to Birmingham service? Whilst it would create an all-day link from West Wales to London, it would just be a job of merging two services together rather than create an entirely new service. Of course, it would mean that there would be rural West Wales stations operated by Avanti which of course, would be away from their critical mass of operations. But could there be any benefit to such a merger of services?

The benefit is to the realtively small number of passengers between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury to London. The costs are that stock which is well suited to London-Birmingham-Shrewsbury is not well suited to the Cambrian line, in terms of speed, length, capacity or flexibility. It would also be very inefficient in crew and stock. Finally, if there's a problem at any point between London and Aberystwyth, the delay gets passed all along the line.

London to Birmingham area needs 110mph bulk people moves, as they have with the 350s. These services are always busy. London to further afield needs 125mph stock and comfort, which means long trains to put enough passengers on board. The Cambrian line needs a lightweight, quick accerlating unit but doesn't need the top speed. It also needs a shorter unit to fit into the many passing loops. So you either run a unit that isn't long enough or fast enough for the mainline, or a unit that's too long for the loops and slow accelerating that can't use it's top speed on the Cambrian.

I agree with @bramling - robust connections at Wolverhampton or International and maximise local capacity on the Cambrian would be the best overall option.

Why would a Voyager need ECTS to be fitted to run on the Cambrian line?

Because the Cambrian line is ETCS only. Nothing can run on the Cambrian unless it is ETCS Level 2 equipped.

 

[cle]

If post-HS2 Shrewsbury ever got to 1tph to London (which I don't thnk it needs, but demand might be there, Telford is big and could be the Wolves path, instead of going on to Scotland) - then having connections there to Wrexham and the Cambrian would be most important.

If not, then Wolverhampton would probably be best as the hub. Avoid any long dwells at New St, and longer time on a more comfortably train - vs joining at Intl.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It'd not be viable until post-HS2. After that it could be worthy of consideration, operating "proper" IC style trains to Aberystwyth with Pwllheli as a connection, possibly more frequent than now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 May 2021 ==

If not, then Wolverhampton would probably be best as the hub. Avoid any long dwells at New St, and longer time on a more comfortably train - vs joining at Intl.

Because of HS2 the main connection point (if it remains as it is) would always be Birmingham.

 

[The Planner]

ATW did propose running to Marylebone at one point back in the days of WSMR. Got as far as trying to find the paths as well. Got some people quite upset for no reason over 90mph 158s mixing with 100mph Class 168s on here if I recall. As others have said, better off with connections at somewhere like International.

 

[Failed Unit]

Would going the other way be possible, Voyager from Shrewsbury extending to Wales?

I can see a few challenges such as the signaling system - but would the Voyager be able to go on the route irrespective?

 

[PHILIPE]

Would going the other way be possible, Voyager from Shrewsbury extending to Wales?

I can see a few challenges such as the signaling system - but would the Voyager be able to go on the route irrespective?

Nothing can go on the Cambrian without the signalling system. Full stop

 

[Failed Unit]

Nothing can go on the Cambrian without the signalling system. Full stop

Do they not have mobile units for engineering trains? This is a speculative idea thread. I could suggest fit out all the Voyagers. To me the signaling system is probably easier to overcome then the train. But then I guess solve both problems at once - new trains compatible with the signal system than can tilt to take advantage of the WCML paths.

 

[zwk500]

Do they not have mobile units for engineering trains? This is a speculative idea thread. I could suggest fit out all the Voyagers. To me the signaling system is probably easier to overcome then the train. But then I guess solve both problems at once - new trains compatible with the signal system than can tilt to take advantage of the WCML paths.

They have a fleet of 37s fitted with ETCS specifically for the Cambrian line. Steam trains have been banned from the Cambrian precisely because they can't be fitted with ETCS (at a price TOCs were willing to pay).

I don't know how restrictive the gauge is on the cambrian, but the fact that Loco Gauge and Mk3s generally are NOT permitted between Sutton Bridge Jn and Welshpool suggests to me a reasonable amount of work would be required to allow a Voyager to run. AFAICT the biggest things permitted to run on the Cambrian are 159s, 170s and 325s. Somebody more knowledgeable than me will have to say where a Voyager fits in with that. The RA should be alright even though it's only RA5 beyond Welshpool as Voyagers are pretty light.

 

[Bletchleyite]

ATW did propose running to Marylebone at one point back in the days of WSMR. Got as far as trying to find the paths as well. Got some people quite upset for no reason over 90mph 158s mixing with 100mph Class 168s on here if I recall. As others have said, better off with connections at somewhere like International.

It would definitely not work with 158s (and who'd want their ears rattled for that long?)

If doing it you'd want 125mph bi-modes of some sort, and it'd have to be down the WCML, not the Chiltern Line, as Chiltern would be too slow. Which means either post-HS2, or as an extension of one of the Avanti Brum terminators (so needing a full length train, or a pair of 80x, one of which dropped off at New St).

FWIW I opposed it too, but it was because of the implications for train lengths within Wales (ATW didn't have enough stock to run proper length trains as it was, so losing a couple of 158s for them to carry the proverbial one man, dog and bicycle on a slow meander via a bit of Chiltern scenery would be a waste), I'd not have opposed it if additional stock was being obtained for it.

 

[stuu]

They have a fleet of 37s fitted with ETCS specifically for the Cambrian line. Steam trains have been banned from the Cambrian precisely because they can't be fitted with ETCS (at a price TOCs were willing to pay).

I don't know how restrictive the gauge is on the cambrian, but the fact that Loco Gauge and Mk3s generally are NOT permitted between Sutton Bridge Jn and Welshpool suggests to me a reasonable amount of work would be required to allow a Voyager to run. AFAICT the biggest things permitted to run on the Cambrian are 159s, 170s and 325s. Somebody more knowledgeable than me will have to say where a Voyager fits in with that. The RA should be alright even though it's only RA5 beyond Welshpool as Voyagers are pretty light.

Surely that is a paperwork issue? A HST has been to Aberystwyth in the 1980s, and the 1980s Cambrian Coast Express was Loco and coaches, presumably Mk2s. Nothing would have been physically built to reduce the loading gauge, would it?

 

[Aictos]

ATW did propose running to Marylebone at one point back in the days of WSMR. Got as far as trying to find the paths as well. Got some people quite upset for no reason over 90mph 158s mixing with 100mph Class 168s on here if I recall. As others have said, better off with connections at somewhere like International.

As I understood it, the plan was for the service to call Aberystwyth then all stations to Birmingham International then calling only at Leamington Spa and Bicester North followed by London Marylebone?

 

[zwk500]

Surely that is a paperwork issue? A HST has been to Aberystwyth in the 1980s, and the 1980s Cambrian Coast Express was Loco and coaches, presumably Mk2s. Nothing would have been physically built to reduce the loading gauge, would it?

2 things: Structures and rails both move, as it happens! We're talking a couple of mm for things like ballast creep and structure settlement/subsidence, but over a few years it adds up. And 2nd as level access has been moved up the agenda lots of tolerances have been tightened to just the intended stock. So trains that used to fit lo longer do. In addition as linespeeds have risen the dynamic profile has changed, although on the Cambrian that's probably not had a significant effect.

A Class 220 and a Class 158 have the same car length and width, and a 220 is tapered in for the tilt option, so I'd be surprised if it couldn't fit, however the platform-lower sector interface may be different. It may well just need the paperwork doing, but it could easily need platforms grinding back or the track slueing away from the platform. I really don't know either class well enough to compare.

 

[CW2]

I guess it all depends on what you are trying to achieve - as well as what rolling stock is available / would fit / is compatible. The original proposal was to couple Euston - Birmingham with International - Aberystwyth services. What is being achieved by this, and who benefits? I don't think there's much of a market from (say) Rugby to Caersws. Really it is links to / from London that will sway the issue. So how many through trains per day to London does Aberystwyth need? Would there be a significant increase in patronage by provision of a through train, rather than the relatively simple interchanges which are already available at Wolverhampton / Birmingham New Street / International?
I suspect the answer is: there is no significant benefit to changing the services as proposed, and possibly significant disbenefits (e.g. additional diesel mileage under the wires).
/File and Forget\

 

[The Planner]

It would definitely not work with 158s (and who'd want their ears rattled for that long?)

If doing it you'd want 125mph bi-modes of some sort, and it'd have to be down the WCML, not the Chiltern Line, as Chiltern would be too slow. Which means either post-HS2, or as an extension of one of the Avanti Brum terminators (so needing a full length train, or a pair of 80x, one of which dropped off at New St).

FWIW I opposed it too, but it was because of the implications for train lengths within Wales (ATW didn't have enough stock to run proper length trains as it was, so losing a couple of 158s for them to carry the proverbial one man, dog and bicycle on a slow meander via a bit of Chiltern scenery would be a waste), I'd not have opposed it if additional stock was being obtained for it.

Alright for people to sit on them for three hours from Aberystwyth to Brum though? They didn't plan to stop at many stations so it would have been 90 minutes-ish via the Chilterns from International.

 

[David Goddard]

Great idea (as are the majority of suggestions in this forum) however as others have said the major issue would be suitable stock for such a mixed route, with some form of bi-mode being the most suitable, and the biggest issue being the impact of delays (either way) between the main line and the rural section.
Could see in future the extension of a London to Birmingham service to Shrewsbury, but not over onto the Cambrian, with appropriate connections at Shrewsbury to enable joined up journeys to be possible.

 

[JonathanH]

Could see in future the extension of a London to Birmingham service to Shrewsbury, but not over onto the Cambrian, with appropriate connections at Shrewsbury to enable joined up journeys to be possible.

Isn't there already a good connection at Birmingham International which enables joined up journeys to be possible? The xx43 from Euston arrives at Birmingham International at x154 and the Cambrian service departs at x206. There is no particular reason why the connection at Shrewsbury would be any more convenient than at Birmingham International where the West Wales service starts (or Wolverhampton). Something similar in the other direction.

Would a hypothetical through service to Shrewsbury *replace* the Cambrian service over the Birmingham International to Shrewsbury section? There doesn't seem much point in running such a long overlap.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Alright for people to sit on them for three hours from Aberystwyth to Brum though?

No, not really, to be honest, the things rattle my ears. I had really hoped for something more InterCity than 197s, but at least those are noticeably quieter than 158s.

They didn't plan to stop at many stations so it would have been 90 minutes-ish via the Chilterns from International.

That's actually not bad...I had expected them to be slower than the 80 minutes Avanti appear to take.

 

[cle]

I would argue tha Curzon St is better used for point to point, but the legacy services should be encouraged like London - Telford / Shrewsbury / Aber. Wolverhampton makes a much more sensible point, but possibly one day Shrewsbury justify have an hourly service. Maybe if Chester was wired and joined HS2.

Shrewsbury is more of a rail hub, and feeders could come in from all directions. I'd wager Cambrian folks need direct to London as much as Birmingham - and so may as well terminate at Shrewsbury which also offers Manchester, Chester, Crewe and Cardiff. If a solid hourly London service (via B'ham of course) existed.

 

[Bevan Price]

They have a fleet of 37s fitted with ETCS specifically for the Cambrian line. Steam trains have been banned from the Cambrian precisely because they can't be fitted with ETCS (at a price TOCs were willing to pay).

I don't know how restrictive the gauge is on the cambrian, but the fact that Loco Gauge and Mk3s generally are NOT permitted between Sutton Bridge Jn and Welshpool suggests to me a reasonable amount of work would be required to allow a Voyager to run. AFAICT the biggest things permitted to run on the Cambrian are 159s, 170s and 325s. Somebody more knowledgeable than me will have to say where a Voyager fits in with that. The RA should be alright even though it's only RA5 beyond Welshpool as Voyagers are pretty light.

Voyagers are anything but light. A typical 221 coach is about 16-17 tons heavier than a Class 158 coach. Even a Class 220 coach is around 7-8 tons heavier than a 158 coach.

 

[kje7812]

Voyagers are anything but light. A typical 221 coach is about 16-17 tons heavier than a Class 158 coach. Even a Class 220 coach is around 7-8 tons heavier than a 158 coach.

I'm fairly sure 220 are RA2 which is the same as 158s, while 221 are RA4.

 

[wobman]

The ATW Aber to London marleybone plan was a 4 car 158 from Aber to Birmingham international, then at international they would split with an extra travelling traincrew taking a 2 car onto London.

There was a business case for it & ATW really wanted the route but like any London proposal at that time Virgin blocked it. People forget how Wrexham Shropshire was crippled by virgin & the final nail in the coffin was Arriva training up with virgin.

Running such a future service could only really be ran by TFW with its new ERTMS Equipped 197's, especially if it's a direct service.

It could be a ERTMS 2 car 197 from Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury then attach to a 3 car non ERTMS unit as Shrewsbury. Then at international the 3 car could continue on & the 2 car can return. Or just continue on as a 5 car if TFW retain some of its other rolling stock such as 175's or gain more MK4s in the future to free up the units for this service.

It's a nice idea Aberystwyth to London marleybone & it's a shame it won't happen.

 

[adrock1976]

I'm fairly sure 220 are RA2 which is the same as 158s, while 221 are RA4.

Is the different RA for 221s due to the tilting mechanism?

 

[The Planner]

The ATW Aber to London marleybone plan was a 4 car 158 from Aber to Birmingham international, then at international they would split with an extra travelling traincrew taking a 2 car onto London.

There was a business case for it & ATW really wanted the route but like any London proposal at that time Virgin blocked it. People forget how Wrexham Shropshire was crippled by virgin & the final nail in the coffin was Arriva training up with virgin.

Running such a future service could only really be ran by TFW with its new ERTMS Equipped 197's, especially if it's a direct service.

It could be a ERTMS 2 car 197 from Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury then attach to a 3 car non ERTMS unit as Shrewsbury. Then at international the 3 car could continue on & the 2 car can return. Or just continue on as a 5 car if TFW retain some of its other rolling stock such as 175's or gain more MK4s in the future to free up the units for this service.

It's a nice idea Aberystwyth to London marleybone & it's a shame it won't happen.

Virgin blocked because they had to as they were told to. Moderation of competition was a franchise item.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is the different RA for 221s due to the tilting mechanism?

They only tilt if TASS tells them to. They are however much heavier (mostly in the bogies, which is unsprung weight).