Transpennine Route Upgrade and Electrification updates

[John R]

I like the way piling is described as "enabling work", presumably because formal approval for the project hasn't yet been given. It's a bit like putting in the foundations of a house and describing it as enabling work.

 

[Glenn1969]

That will be because electrification isn't actually funded yet. Take it it will be eventually though ?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That will be because electrification isn't actually funded yet. Take it it will be eventually though ?

Is that missing funding something outstanding from "The Day of the Grayling"?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I like the way piling is described as "enabling work", presumably because formal approval for the project hasn't yet been given. It's a bit like putting in the foundations of a house and describing it as enabling work.

I think they spent something like £1 billion on HS2 "enabling work" before the final go-ahead, all of which would have been lost if approval had not been forthcoming.
Things like all the route design and planning, contract tendering, property purchase and demolition and the parliamentary process (lawyers and consultants etc).
Something similar will be happening, on a smaller scale, with TPU.
The abortive Piccadilly/Oxford Road work must have cost a fair bit too, for the job not to be signed off.

 

[Glenn1969]

The £589m funding announced was supposed to include the wiring. Unfortunately NR have realised it will only fund the enabling works and I believe have had to ask for extra funding for the actual wiring. Which has still not actually been confirmed by anybody

 

[Purple Orange]

The £589m funding announced was supposed to include the wiring. Unfortunately NR have realised it will only fund the enabling works and I believe have had to ask for extra funding for the actual wiring. Which has still not actually been confirmed by anybody

The total cost is expected to be £3bn, for which funding will be granted in piecemeal sections. What it means is that people can say the full TRU scheme is unfunded for several more years, even as sections of line are approved and upgraded.

 

[CdBrux]

The total cost is expected to be £3bn, for which funding will be granted in piecemeal sections. What it means is that people can say the full TRU scheme is unfunded for several more years, even as sections of line are approved and upgraded.

I suspect the money being released in phases will also mean an overspend in one area will not mean the overall budget being overspent, but rather the scope reduced. Might NR have to prove themselves able to deliver early stages for the money approved before money formally released for some of the following stages?

 

[Purple Orange]

I suspect the money being released in phases will also mean an overspend in one area will not mean the overall budget being overspent, but rather the scope reduced. Might NR have to prove themselves able to deliver early stages for the money approved before money formally released for some of the following stages?

Yes they would have to prove themselves as they go, but as I understand (and others more informed than I am can disprove or confirm) the TRU work performed so far has been managed well financially.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Yes they would have to prove themselves as they go, but as I understand (and others more informed than I am can disprove or confirm) the TRU work performed so far has been managed well financially.

But not so well that it kept the Miles Platting wiring in scope?

 

[Purple Orange]

But not so well that it kept the Miles Platting wiring in scope?

Perhaps it is just a case of it being ‘well enough’.

 

[IanXC]

A bit more on the piling work - should be finished by the end of the year so guess wires might not be until next year

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/la...ine-route-upgrade-electrification-26-04-2021/

Obviously 'New Civil Engineer' has never heard of Church Fenton.

 

[nr758123]

The £589m funding announced was supposed to include the wiring. Unfortunately NR have realised it will only fund the enabling works and I believe have had to ask for extra funding for the actual wiring. Which has still not actually been confirmed by anybody

It was all kept very vague what the £589m announced last July was to cover.

Descriptions like "enabling works" and "preparatory works", which could mean almost anything, almost anywhere.

The total cost is expected to be £3bn, for which funding will be granted in piecemeal sections. What it means is that people can say the full TRU scheme is unfunded for several more years, even as sections of line are approved and upgraded.

The £3bn cost dates back to one of many re-announcements of the scheme in the Grayling years. That figure may be out of date.

 

[Purple Orange]

The £3bn cost dates back to one of many re-announcements of the scheme in the Grayling years. That figure may be out of date.

No doubt it is out of date, but the emphasis as I understand it to be is to not have an overall budget but rather a phased budged. A program can have multiple project stages, of which stage 1 might cost £100m. If stage 1 is forecast at £100m and comes in on budget +/- acceptable variance, then move on to stage 2 , with the overall cost for stage 2 reforecast and appraised based on the latest view and lessons learnt from stage 1. If stage 1 costs become uncontrollable and project managers demonstrate that their plans are not working, then stage 2 doesn’t get approved.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The £3bn cost dates back to one of many re-announcements of the scheme in the Grayling years. That figure may be out of date.

I think it was £2.9 billion.
It may be out of date, but the Treasury never forgets.
It's often quite difficult to get a budget changed, as NR keeps finding to its cost.
With annual government spending reviews, there may be some scope for an increase while "red wall" seats are still a thing.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

My wikipedia article on Transpennine route upgrade has now been published.

Transpennine north railway upgrade - Wikipedia

 

[johnnychips]

My wikipedia article on Transpennine route upgrade has now been published.

Transpennine north railway upgrade - Wikipedia

Very good!

 

[Bald Rick]

I think they spent something like £1 billion on HS2 "enabling work" before the final go-ahead

You can multiply that by about 8.

The £589m funding announced was supposed to include the wiring. Unfortunately NR have realised it will only fund the enabling works

A source for that would be useful. That is not my understanding at all. The £589m was clearly identified for certain activities, and remains on track.

The total cost is expected to be £3bn, for which funding will be granted in piecemeal sections. What it means is that people can say the full TRU scheme is unfunded for several more years, even as sections of line are approved and upgraded.

There is well over £2bn funded in CP6 with more to come in CP7; it is by far the largest project in the CP6 enhancements plan, and funding was confirmed for CP6 in the spending review. However, the final decision to commit the expenditure is awaited.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

A source for that would be useful. That is not my understanding at all. The £589m was clearly identified for certain activities, and remains on track.

There is well over £2bn funded in CP6 with more to come in CP7; it is by far the largest project in the CP6 enhancements plan, and funding was confirmed for CP6 in the spending review. However, the final decision to commit the expenditure is awaited.

Yes I would love a source too. Now this source may not be quite 100% reliable but it is my understanding.

My vision for fully-electrified Transpennine rail will cost more than £2.9bn budget set by Chris Grayling, says Grant Shapps

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps says a bigger budget than the £2.9bn set by his predecessor Chris Grayling will be needed for the Transpennine route to become a "first-class, fully-electrified" railway.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

That quite clearly states in at least 2 places that the 589M gives quite a lot of stuff. So I agree with Bald Rick.

The £589m funding announced was supposed to include the wiring. Unfortunately NR have realised it will only fund the enabling works and I believe have had to ask for extra funding for the actual wiring. Which has still not actually been confirmed by anybody

So I disagree with this bit completely.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The problem is that the announcements are deliberately vague, just talking about improved journey times and reliability, which could apply to just about any investment.
Even the Shapps view about full electrification calls it an "ambition" and not a fact.
It all has to get through the Treasury in the (now) annual spending reviews.
Maybe after next week's elections there will be some factual announcements on the many outstanding railway issues.

 

[snowball]

In addition to the general vagueness about what is funded and what isn't (as seen by those of us with no access to inside info) the current round of fears about inadequate funding was triggered by this NCE article which was linked in #3666:

Trans-Pennine route electrification in doubt | New Civil Engineer

The line runs from Manchester to Leeds and to stations either side. Network Rail told Transport Network that the £589M funding will cover “early works”

www.newcivilengineer.com

However we do have one newish datum. The documents for the Huddersfield-Westtown TWAO included an estimated total cost for that section including electrification, which IIRC was £1.45 billion.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The problem is that the announcements are deliberately vague, just talking about improved journey times and reliability, which could apply to just about any investment.
Even the Shapps view about full electrification calls it an "ambition" and not a fact.
It all has to get through the Treasury in the (now) annual spending reviews.
Maybe after next week's elections there will be some factual announcements on the many outstanding railway issues.

The Treasury will take some time to recover from Rishi's unlocking of the magic door during this Covid-19 pandemic that allowed borrowed monies to gush outwards to recipiants of all kinds....

 

[Purple Orange]

The Treasury will take some time to recover from Rishi's unlocking of the magic door during this Covid-19 pandemic that allowed borrowed monies to gush outwards to recipiants of all kinds....

Meaning what exactly, in your opinion?

The borrowing required for the pandemic is on a level comparable to WW1, WW2, the Napoleonic Wars and the Slavery Abolition Act 1833. I’m unsure about the Napoleonic Wars, but the debt for WW2 was finally paid off in 2006 and the Slavery Abolition Act in 2015. The final payments relating to debt incurred in WW1 was also paid off in 2015. The pandemic debt must be on these terms.

In the time between those awful events and eventual repayment, we have had railways, airports, hospitals, housing and motorways built, plus the creation of the NHS, the welfare state, and unfortunately several other wars too. I think that investment in our infrastructure won’t be harmed as much as you think it will and projects like TRU should be good to proceed, given the benefits it will bring.

 

[59CosG95]

Back on topic...the May monthly tracker for York - Church Fenton has been published. https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-co...ay-Improvement-Scheme-project-tracker-May.pdf
More steelwork installation is taking place at the start and end of the month, bookending SPS installation in the middle part.

 

[quantinghome]

The borrowing required for the pandemic is on a level comparable to WW1, WW2, the Napoleonic Wars and the Slavery Abolition Act 1833. I’m unsure about the Napoleonic Wars, but the debt for WW2 was finally paid off in 2006 and the Slavery Abolition Act in 2015. The final payments relating to debt incurred in WW1 was also paid off in 2015. The pandemic debt must be on these terms.

In the time between those awful events and eventual repayment, we have had railways, airports, hospitals, housing and motorways built, plus the creation of the NHS, the welfare state, and unfortunately several other wars too. I think that investment in our infrastructure won’t be harmed as much as you think it will and projects like TRU should be good to proceed, given the benefits it will bring.

Current national debt has now exceeded 100% of GDP but this is significantly lower than for the Napoleonic Wars (200%) or World Wars (250%). So there's even less excuse for not investing in our infrastructure.

 

[John R]

Back on topic...the May monthly tracker for York - Church Fenton has been published. https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-co...ay-Improvement-Scheme-project-tracker-May.pdf
More steelwork installation is taking place at the start and end of the month, bookending SPS installation in the middle part.

How much does doing these small piece meal sections create a cost inefficiency? I would presume there is some rework involved in the infrastructure needed at the end point?

 

[quantinghome]

How much does doing these small piece meal sections create a cost inefficiency? I would presume there is some rework involved in the infrastructure needed at the end point?

A small amount I guess, but vastly outweighed by having continued work for the electrification teams. Stop-start electrification has been the bane of the railways for decades.

 

[Bald Rick]

The cost inefficiency comes if the next stage doesn’t happen.

 

[Purple Orange]

After electrification of Victoria to Stalybridge, Huddersfield to Leeds and York to Church Fenton, how much mileage is left to do after that point?

Surely each incremental stretch of electrification only serves to strengthen the business case for the remaining sections. Imagine the gnashing of teeth has the whole line from York to Liverpool been put through as one business case!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

After electrification of Victoria to Stalybridge, Huddersfield to Leeds and York to Church Fenton, how much mileage is left to do after that point?
Surely each incremental stretch of electrification only serves to strengthen the business case for the remaining sections. Imagine the gnashing of teeth has the whole line from York to Liverpool been put through as one business case!

Stalybridge-Huddersfield is 18 miles, Neville Hill-Church Fenton is 14.
Vic-Staley is 7 and Guide Bridge-Staley is 2.

Business cases are strange things.
I can't imagine the current wiring Colton-Church Fenton has a very good BC, unless it was essential for some other reason (eg ECML upgrade, power supplies etc).
For the main route you have to throw in clearance, remodelling, realignment and resignalling work as well, and some new trains (to replace the DMUs).
The real business case is indeed for the end-to-end service (passenger and freight), plus diversion routes and the odd fill-in section (eg Guide Bridge-Staley).

 

[Purple Orange]

Stalybridge-Huddersfield is 18 miles, Neville Hill-Church Fenton is 14.
Vic-Staley is 7 and Guide Bridge-Staley is 2.

Business cases are strange things.
I can't imagine the current wiring Colton-Church Fenton has a very good BC, unless it was essential for some other reason (eg ECML upgrade, power supplies etc).
For the main route you have to throw in clearance, remodelling, realignment and resignalling work as well, and some new trains (to replace the DMUs).
The real business case is indeed for the end-to-end service (passenger and freight), plus diversion routes and the odd fill-in section (eg Guide Bridge-Staley).

I’m interested to see what c9mes of the Guide Bridge to Stalyvegas route. It should be electrified of course, but I see the route from Piccadilly as something that could play a huge role in long distance traffic going forward.