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Cost of a 319?
- Thread starter TheWalrus
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Aictos
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Why, you thinking of buying one? (Sorry, it just had to be asked,)
You know what I was gonna say I wasn't thinking of buying one, but thought maybe it'd be too obvious I wasn't. Obviously not!
I knew someone would say that! No not for me personally (and no it's not a gift, therefore I don't want it gift wrapped thank you!
)
...and no it's not a gift, therefore I don't want it gift wrapped thank you!
Are you sure you don't want it gift wrapped...im sure the DFT Can arrange a follow on from 319364 & 319365
Might be a bit on the Brightside though
westcoaster
Established Member
Nowt wrong with pinky and perky.
WatcherZero
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- 10,272
You could perhaps estimate based on life remaining, e.g. if it was £1m new with an estimated 30 year life of which 10 remains you would be talking about £350k, Im also assuming that as their cascaded a lot and valued by the job they can do they dont instantly lose half their value when new (cough cars). A unit with a comprehensive overhaul might gain 20% or more of its lost value back.
For some comparison new prices from Angel.
First North Western
now Arriva Trains Wales
175
Alstom
70
£79m
Arriva Trains Northern
now Northern Rail
333
Siemens
64
£76m
C2C
357/2
Bombardier
112
£95m
EWS
66
GM
250
£300m
EWS
67
GM
30
£43m
Virgin West Coast
390
Alstom
477
£708m
Virgin West Coast
390
(delivery 2011-2012)
Alstom
106
£269m
South West Trains
450
Siemens
440
£417m
South West Trains
444
Siemens
225
£233m
South West Trains
450
(delivered 2007)
Siemens
68
£68m
First Great Eastern
now National Express
East Anglia
360
Siemens
84
£82m
First Great Western
180
Alstom
70
£89m
Silverlink
now London Midland
350
Siemens
120
£128m
London Overground
172
(delivery in 2009)
Bombardier
16
£22m
Chiltern Railways
172
(delivery in 2010)
Bombardier
8
£11m
For some comparison new prices from Angel.
First North Western
now Arriva Trains Wales
175
Alstom
70
£79m
Arriva Trains Northern
now Northern Rail
333
Siemens
64
£76m
C2C
357/2
Bombardier
112
£95m
EWS
66
GM
250
£300m
EWS
67
GM
30
£43m
Virgin West Coast
390
Alstom
477
£708m
Virgin West Coast
390
(delivery 2011-2012)
Alstom
106
£269m
South West Trains
450
Siemens
440
£417m
South West Trains
444
Siemens
225
£233m
South West Trains
450
(delivered 2007)
Siemens
68
£68m
First Great Eastern
now National Express
East Anglia
360
Siemens
84
£82m
First Great Western
180
Alstom
70
£89m
Silverlink
now London Midland
350
Siemens
120
£128m
London Overground
172
(delivery in 2009)
Bombardier
16
£22m
Chiltern Railways
172
(delivery in 2010)
Bombardier
8
£11m
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Are those prices for leasing costs per year of each fleet?
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Thanks, that's the answer I was really looking for!
WatcherZero
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- 10,272
No those are construction prices as new so you can get an idea of what a brand new vehicle costs then work back what an older one may still be worth.
WatcherZero
Established Member
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- 25 Feb 2010
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- 10,272
Also note thats per carriage not per set prices.
Seriously a 390 costs more than £200m per carriage!
*faints*
*faints*
dan_atki
Established Member
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- 1 Nov 2006
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- 1,879
Looking at it, that's £269m per 106 carriages
making it £2.54m per carriage.The previous order was a better deal: £708m for 477 carriages is £1.48m per carriage - maybe Alstom gave them a bulk buy discount!
WatcherZero
Established Member
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- 25 Feb 2010
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- 10,272
Yeah theirs 3 things you can see when looking at the orders.
1. Bigger orders are generally cheaper (duh)
2. Simpler units cost far less (double duh)
3. They are gradually getting more expensive over the last 10/15 years, e.g. average price was just below 1m each, now its just above (triple duh)
1. Bigger orders are generally cheaper (duh)
2. Simpler units cost far less (double duh)
3. They are gradually getting more expensive over the last 10/15 years, e.g. average price was just below 1m each, now its just above (triple duh)
Looking at it, that's £269m per 106 carriages
Ah, yes that does sound slightly more reasonable
*Feels foolish*
Royston Vasey
Established Member
Late entry into the thread I know, but something I have been musing over.
The concept of a price for such a unit depends on a number of things. Fair value, "bid" price and "offer" price (in dealing terms) and of course availability... the ability of the unit to be sold at all.
There may be a value which one leasing company would be prepared to pay for a unit to another leasing company, which one would expect to be roughly in line with the lease revenue chargeable for that unit over its likely future life, plus or minus a bit. The future lifetime of the unit is determined by DfT policy.
However it would be wrong to say that these units have a price. They don't for a number of reasons; firstly the price is determined by what a vendor is willing to accept and what a buyer is willing to pay. But such a transaction has never been carried out; the 319s have been owned by Porterbrook ever since privatisation, there is no reference point (unless you include the bid of Porterbrook to buy the units from the government). Porterbrook would have an asset value associated with their assets of course, but this is a book value and not a selling price, they are different concepts.
The second reason it is wrong to allocate a price is that their destiny is already pre-determined by DfT and will be until they are no longer needed. The market is thus heavily regulated. Ultimately, they can't be sold onto the market other than to a small number of other RoSCos. A selling price may exist between rolling stock companies, but this is a unique and non-transferable value. If the question is, what would a 319 cost to anyone else who fancies exporting them to the North West, or Bulgaria, or the Isle of Man? There is no such cost price because they cannot be bought on the open market until they are surplus to requirements.
In essence, because the RoSCos would have to buy new vehicles, in order to replace the 319s, in order to sell the 319s (if that makes sense) you may as well set the price of a 319 at exactly the price of the brand new 377/5 (or even NXEMU) you would you need to replace that unit on Thameslink to fulfil contractual obligations! So roughly £4-6m a unit.
That's my (probably crooked!) view of the economics here.
The concept of a price for such a unit depends on a number of things. Fair value, "bid" price and "offer" price (in dealing terms) and of course availability... the ability of the unit to be sold at all.
There may be a value which one leasing company would be prepared to pay for a unit to another leasing company, which one would expect to be roughly in line with the lease revenue chargeable for that unit over its likely future life, plus or minus a bit. The future lifetime of the unit is determined by DfT policy.
However it would be wrong to say that these units have a price. They don't for a number of reasons; firstly the price is determined by what a vendor is willing to accept and what a buyer is willing to pay. But such a transaction has never been carried out; the 319s have been owned by Porterbrook ever since privatisation, there is no reference point (unless you include the bid of Porterbrook to buy the units from the government). Porterbrook would have an asset value associated with their assets of course, but this is a book value and not a selling price, they are different concepts.
The second reason it is wrong to allocate a price is that their destiny is already pre-determined by DfT and will be until they are no longer needed. The market is thus heavily regulated. Ultimately, they can't be sold onto the market other than to a small number of other RoSCos. A selling price may exist between rolling stock companies, but this is a unique and non-transferable value. If the question is, what would a 319 cost to anyone else who fancies exporting them to the North West, or Bulgaria, or the Isle of Man? There is no such cost price because they cannot be bought on the open market until they are surplus to requirements.
In essence, because the RoSCos would have to buy new vehicles, in order to replace the 319s, in order to sell the 319s (if that makes sense) you may as well set the price of a 319 at exactly the price of the brand new 377/5 (or even NXEMU) you would you need to replace that unit on Thameslink to fulfil contractual obligations! So roughly £4-6m a unit.
That's my (probably crooked!) view of the economics here.
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WatcherZero
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Its fundamentally sound if taken to extreme economic analysis. Theres as few counterpoints however, theirs no limit on ROSCO's a new one could enter the market at any time and indeed a couple have done. The price of the unit is also facing downwards pressure from the fact the Dft could turnaround tommorow and say we no longer need it making it worthless except for private hire, export or spares, in that respect its book value will reflect its expected lifetime earnings, the ROSCO wouldnt demand you stumped up for an as new unit as from their point of view if its asset value is more than realised theirs nothing to prevent selling it for a profit and reinvesting the money or paying it back to shareholders.
The Issue in the UK rolling stock market is that they wont invest in completley new stock without the guarentee the Dft will pay for its use in service which is market distorting, if franchise payments were readjusted so that they paid for the stock directly the Franchises could better source for their needs and form their own long term deals with ROSCO's however it doesnt address the risk of a ROSCO investing in new stock and no one wanting to use it so long term deals (10-15 years should be sufficent for ROSCO to recover investment while making a small profit then the next 15 years of service will be pure profit with the amount dependant on its actual lifetime in service) will have to be done to give that certainty that they can recover their investment.
The Issue in the UK rolling stock market is that they wont invest in completley new stock without the guarentee the Dft will pay for its use in service which is market distorting, if franchise payments were readjusted so that they paid for the stock directly the Franchises could better source for their needs and form their own long term deals with ROSCO's however it doesnt address the risk of a ROSCO investing in new stock and no one wanting to use it so long term deals (10-15 years should be sufficent for ROSCO to recover investment while making a small profit then the next 15 years of service will be pure profit with the amount dependant on its actual lifetime in service) will have to be done to give that certainty that they can recover their investment.
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d1015fan
Member
Why, you thinking of buying one? (Sorry, it just had to be asked,
shame you beat me to it. my first thought as well
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