Do we still need HS2?

[The Planner]

What exactly do Banbury and New St have in common besides being railway stations vaguely in the Midlands?

With your suggestion, a lot. Through station with end to end terminators and through trains.

 

[gingerheid]

I know it might sound ridiculous, but I sometimes wonder if the scheme had been given a boring functional name such as the "West Coast Main Line Capacity Upgrade" instead of HS2 we'd hear as many people moaning about it being a scheme for "rich business men to travel down to London faster"

Hmm. Or the "Trying To Start Catching Up With The French More Than Half A Century Late Relief Line"...

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I would be more enthusiastic about it if it connected to HS1 as was originally planned. It would then fulfill Mrs Thatcher's original promise to provide regional Eurostars, for which the rolling stock was built and then sold to Canada. I remember seeing a provisional timetable for the sleeper service, Preston dep 8pm, Gare du Nord arrive 8am.

If it also connected Heathrow and Gatwick it would really have many ways to eat away at air travel.

Of course when we live in a country where people start discussions about whether something so long overdue as HS2 is even necessary... not happening any time soon

 

[Starmill]

Yes, but the issue is that there are no stations between Leamington Spa and Banbury - the former has facilities to terminate from the north, the latter from the south. Banbury to Birmingham is far enough to be an IC flow if that is how you want to characterise CrossCountry. I'd say it is essentially a regional operator now. No need for duplication of WMR and XC services over a 20 mile stretch of route with no intermediate stations.

And I'll concede that that is a bit different to the Northampton situation where the regional routes from Birmingham and London do naturally meet up.

So you wouldn't consider it necessary to be providing any Leamington Spa to London through trains at all then? I'm confused.

 

[daodao]

Of course, there is also the line to Stratford Upon Avon which is likely retain some tourist demand to and from London, so a post-HS2 Chiltern core service could run Marylebone - Wycombe - Banbury - Leamington - Warwick - Stratford, instead of Birmingham. This would leave Solihull without a direct service to London, but for these folk it would most likely be quicker to get a bus to Birmingham Interchange and catch HS2 from there anyway.

A reasonable suggestion for 1 tph, but it would be worth retaining 1 tph running through High Wycombe to continue to Birmingham.

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Returning to the thread's topic, this is posed as a binary question, but HS2 is in effect in 3 parts, that can be considered separately:

1. the core - phases 1 and 2a - these sections will clearly provide relief to the congested WCML itself as well as speeding up journeys significantly to the destinations served.
2. phase 2b north of Crewe, for which the segments are less needed as each of them will see far fewer trains per hour
3. phase 2b's eastern leg, which will see less use than the core part of HS2 and where the speed improvements for destinations in Yorkshire and the NE currently served from London by the ECML are less.

Part 1 is already authorised and construction has already begun.

Parts 2 and 3 are of questionable value and may no longer be affordable given the financial consequences of Brexit and Covid. Time saved for journeys from Birmingham northwards is less important than the times for journeys from London. The effect of diverting services from Birmingham to Yorkshire/NE and Manchester onto HS2, on through travel from the existing South Coast and SW England destinations currently served by XC, does not appear to have been considered adequately.

For Part 2, the time saved for NW and Scotch destinations by building it is only about 15 minutes, and significant costs would be saved by not building the expensive tunnel from Manchester airport to the city centre.

If Part 3 is not built:

• trains from London to Derby/Chesterfield/Sheffield could be accelerated by using HS2 as far as Tamworth and then the existing ex-MR lines northwards.
• Nottingham could then gain 2 faster trains per hour from London by timetabling the 2 tph running non-stop from St Pancras to Leicester to run non-stop to Nottingham.
• These 2 changes would reduce journey times from London to all key destinations currently served by the MML.
• London-Edinburgh fast services could be routed via HS2 and the WCML north of Crewe, relieving pressure on the ECML

 

[Ianno87]

A reasonable suggestion for 1 tph, but it would be worth retaining 1 tph running through High Wycombe to continue to Birmingham.

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1. the core - phases 1 and 2a - these sections will clearly provide relief to the congested WCML itself as well as speeding up journeys significantly to the destinations served.
2. phase 2b north of Crewe, for which the segments are less needed as each of them will see far fewer trains per hour
3. phase 2b's eastern leg, which will see less use than the core line and where the speed improvements for destinations in Yorkshire and the NE currently served from London by the ECML are less.

For Part 2, the time saved for NW and Scotch destinations by building it is only about 15 minutes, and significant costs would be saved by not building the expensive tunnel from Manchester airport to the city centre.

Part (2) I'd say was pretty critical to bypassing the constraint of Stockport, which is (in trains terms) full, and has been since 2008.

 

[daodao]

Part (2) I'd say was pretty critical to bypassing the constraint of Stockport, which is (in trains terms) full, and has been since 2008.

Of the 3 tph HS2 services planned to run from London to Manchester, at least 2 could be routed via the Styal loop to bypass Stockport. Relieving congestion at Stockport was one of the reasons why the Styal line was opened in 1909. The suburban traffic on this line only developed after it was opened; much of the area was green fields at the time of its construction and the former Kingsway reserved track tram line was only opened post WW1.

 

[21C101]

Why on earth are people viewing Chiltern post HS2 through Dr Beechings Duplicate Route lens, why stop at caping all Chiltern services at Banbury, we could single north of Bicester as well to save a few bob?

If Chiltern Birmingham trains ran non stop every half hour between Solihull and High Wycombe I would understand it.

But they don't and plenty of people want to travel from places like Bicester to places north of Banbury or from Leamington to London.

Given that HS2 will have eyewatering prices and post HS2 the LNW route will have slower trains making more calls and still have eyewatering prices, I suspect if anything there will be more people using Chiltern all the way from London to Birmingham post HS2 than there are now.

 

[JonathanH]

Given that HS2 will have eyewatering prices and post HS2 the LNW route will have slower trains making more calls and still have eyewatering prices, I suspect if anything there will be more people using Chiltern all the way from London to Birmingham post HS2 than there are now.

You have captured it in one. The point is that once built, all through traffic from London to Birmingham needs to be on HS2 with the other options made less attractive to through passengers.

HS2 is not necessarily going to have eyewatering fares as there is a lot of capacity to fill. However, there is an extremely good argument to raise the prices of every other route to be the same to protect the investment and that ought to be done sooner rather than later to avoid accusations of doing it when HS2 actually opens.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why on earth are people viewing Chiltern post HS2 through Dr Beechings Duplicate Route lens, why stop at caping all Chiltern services at Banbury, we could single north of Bicester as well to save a few bob?

If Chiltern Birmingham trains ran non stop every half hour between Solihull and High Wycombe I would understand it.

But they don't and plenty of people want to travel from places like Bicester to places north of Banbury or from Leamington to London.

Given that HS2 will have eyewatering prices and post HS2 the LNW route will have slower trains making more calls and still have eyewatering prices, I suspect if anything there will be more people using Chiltern all the way from London to Birmingham post HS2 than there are now.

I think you are rather omitting the WCML classic line fast services there, I would expect, based on other European countries, these will become the budget option.

And neither of the things you state as a given actually are. They may be the case or they may not.

I would not obsess over chopping Chiltern (might well be worth keeping it as a through operation to Brum) but it really does need to prioritise local passengers, which means a service more like LNR with more stops.

 

[Ianno87]

Of the 3 tph HS2 services planned to run from London to Manchester, at least 2 could be routed via the Styal loop to bypass Stockport. Relieving congestion at Stockport was one of the reasons why the Styal line was opened in 1909. The suburban traffic on this line only developed after it was opened; much of the area was green fields at the time of its construction and the former Kingsway reserved track tram line was only opened post WW1.

Things have moved on in the last 100 years. The Styal line is now rather full of trains going to Manchester Airport. The only 'bypass' of Stockport it now acts as is for Trafford Park freight (to present it onto the correct side of Piccadilly for the through platforms).

Let's just say if it were operationally feasible, trains would be doing it today.

 

[21C101]

Things have moved on in the last 100 years. The Styal line is now rather full of trains going to Manchester Airport. The only 'bypass' of Stockport it now acts as is for Trafford Park freight (to present it onto the correct side of Piccadilly for the through platforms).

Let's just say if it were operationally feasible, trains would be doing it today.

Aside from the fact that byassing Stockport is in itself highly commercially undersirable.

If it wasn't, the Midland Main Line via Cudworth, a faster route from Sheffield to Leeds that similarily bypassed Wakefield would still be open, and the Woodhead route to Sheffield might well have reopened.

 

[Bald Rick]

Given that HS2 will have eyewatering prices

Evidence for that statement?

 

[21C101]

Evidence for that statement?

Even if they are no more expensive than current ICWC fares I rate that as eyewatering (especially compared with LNW and Chiltern) or national express coach for that matter, especially in peak periods.

While there might be more train specific discount tickets if there is more space to fill I think it a reasonable assumption in the context of the discussion.

Its an off the cuff response in a web forum, not a Times editorial.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even if they are no more expensive than current ICWC fares I rate that as eyewatering (especially compared with LNW and Chiltern) or national express coach for that matter, especially in peak periods.

While there might be more train specific discount tickets if there is more space to fill I think it a reasonable assumption in the context of the discussion.

So let's say you're doubling the London-Birmingham capacity, which you roughly are (trains roughly twice the length on the same frequency as at present).

That's a lot of seats to fill. If you price it too high, you won't fill them. And "you dug up the Chilterns to build this, and nobody uses it" is not a vote-winner.

I therefore suspect the "Advances" will be excellent value.

 

[21C101]

So let's say you're doubling the London-Birmingham capacity, which you roughly are (trains roughly twice the length on the same frequency as at present).

That's a lot of seats to fill. If you price it too high, you won't fill them. And "you dug up the Chilterns to build this, and nobody uses it" is not a vote-winner.

I therefore suspect the "Advances" will be excellent value.

Offpeak perhaps. But I doubt much if any cheaper than a Chiltern or London Midland saver which dosent limit you to a single train.

 

[Bald Rick]

Even if they are no more expensive than current ICWC fares I rate that as eyewatering (especially compared with LNW and Chiltern) or national express coach for that matter, especially in peak periods.

While there might be more train specific discount tickets if there is more space to fill I think it a reasonable assumption in the context of the discussion.

I disagree on every count.

1) current Avanti fares are only eye watering if you choose to travel in peak periods on a flexible ticket. You can buy a ticket for Birmingham to London, for travel tomorrow, for £38 return. That is simply not eye watering for a 225 mile round trip on a journey that takes 1hr30 each way. (Less in normal times).

2) HS2 will have a lot of seats to sell, as @Bletchleyite correctly says. You can expect lots of cheap tickets

3) in my opinion, when HS2 is open, the cheapest options for LNW / Chiltern will go. In fact I suspect they will go for Birmingham to London journeys well before that. They are not competing with Avanti any more.

 

[Ianno87]

Offpeak perhaps.

And possibly peaks against-the-flow of trains that have provided capacity into London all heading back again.

Some of the best Advances to be bagged on the likes of SWR etc are 09xx departures from Waterloo which are 12-car sets heading back "to country" after having formed peak arrivals.

 

[21C101]

And possibly peaks against-the-flow of trains that have provided capacity into London all heading back again.

Some of the best Advances to be bagged on the likes of SWR etc are 09xx departures from Waterloo which are 12-car sets heading back "to country" after having formed peak arrivals.

Dosent work like that on the WCML now. For Example Euston to Warrington you have to pay the full whack if you leave before 09.30 mon to Fri

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I disagree on every count.

1) current Avanti fares are only eye watering if you choose to travel in peak periods on a flexible ticket. You can buy a ticket for Birmingham to London, for travel tomorrow, for £38 return. That is simply not eye watering for a 225 mile round trip on a journey that takes 1hr30 each way. (Less in normal times).

2) HS2 will have a lot of seats to sell, as @Bletchleyite correctly says. You can expect lots of cheap tickets

3) in my opinion, when HS2 is open, the cheapest options for LNW / Chiltern will go. In fact I suspect they will go for Birmingham to London journeys well before that. They are not competing with Avanti any more.

Yes but they are train specific. They arn't going to have walk on and go fares that are so cheap that Chiltern services all get terminated at Banbury (as was suggested) which is the context of my original comment.

In fact, I suspect if the industry had its way, HS2 wouldn't have walk on fares at all.

 

[Ianno87]

Dosent work like that on the WCML now. For Example Euston to Warrington you have to pay the full whack if you leave before 09.30 mon to Fri

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Perhaps because it doesn't have the equivalent surplus of contra-peak capacity like SWR does (and HS2 Will do).

Yes but they are train specific. They arn't going to have walk on and go fares that are so cheap that Chiltern services all get terminated at Banbury (as was suggested) which is the context of my original comment.

In fact, I suspect if the industry had its way, HS2 wouldn't have walk on fares at all.

"Walk on" and "train specifc" fares need not be mutually exclusive. Don't be constrained in your thinking by current practices.

For example, you can already "walk on" to some Northern services with an Advance fare purchased at the TVM a few minutes before departure.

 

[Bald Rick]

Dosent work like that on the WCML now. For Example Euston to Warrington you have to pay the full whack if you leave before 09.30 mon to Fri

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Yes but they are train specific. They arn't going to have walk on and go fares that are so cheap that Chiltern services all get terminated at Banbury (as was suggested) which is the context of my original comment.

Chiltern won’t all be terminating at Banbury, that would be bonkers. What could well happen is that Chiltern only or WMT only fares for London - Birmingham are abolished. There are some rather clever algortihms that set fares on the London - Birmingham corridor to maximise revenue for each operator, but not necessarily the market as a whole. In my opinion this will change.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Dosent work like that on the WCML now. For Example Euston to Warrington you have to pay the full whack if you leave before 09.30 mon to Fri

Euston to Warrington is probably a bad example as it's not only one of the 1tph branches, but also the busiest of the three 1tph branches (unless you count the very slow service via Brum). Indeed, AIUI the reason why the Scottish services don't call at Crewe is that if they did they would have an overcrowding problem.

It's therefore not comparable with Euston-Brum on Avanti which has 3 x 260ish metre trains an hour (almost none of which are even nearly full, and the ones that are are often the way they are due to the "stepped" fare system), to be upgraded to 3 x 400 metre trains plus those calling at Interchange. That's a huge amount of capacity. Arguably not all that far off the amount needed to "grass over the M6" as Branson once had it, albeit only for London-Brum journeys and not intermediate ones.

Yes but they are train specific. They arn't going to have walk on and go fares that are so cheap that Chiltern services all get terminated at Banbury (as was suggested) which is the context of my original comment.

In fact, I suspect if the industry had its way, HS2 wouldn't have walk on fares at all.

HS2 is very unlikely to have non-train-specific fares, I'd agree. It is almost certain to be compulsory reservation and dynamically priced. But it'll be 2030 or whatever, and so that doesn't mean "to get it cheap you will need to book several weeks in advance". It'll mean that the quiet trains will have incredibly cheap fares available from the TVM or on your phone, because if you can fill all the seats at £10 each you might as well over getting nothing for them. And it'll be single fare priced, so if you don't know when you're coming back just buy a single and another once you do know. And with 3tph of 400m trains, it's not overly likely to be full (see Eurostar, which very rarely is either).

But the actual fare structure is one for another thread - most people will just care that it's affordable, and I think there's a very high chance it will be.

I'd not get hung up on the "terminate Chiltern at Banbury" argument. That is both a bit OT and not really necessary - my point was that HS2 would enable Chiltern to concentrate more on local stations. If that still includes through running to Brum with 10-15 stops, more like LNR do, then great. But Birmingham fasts using locos and Mk3s is not their future - their future is probably the wires, Aventras or similar and services with more stops.

 

[21C101]

Chiltern won’t all be terminating at Banbury, that would be bonkers. What could well happen is that Chiltern only or WMT only fares for London - Birmingham are abolished. There are some rather clever algortihms that set fares on the London - Birmingham corridor to maximise revenue for each operator, but not necessarily the market as a whole. In my opinion this will change.

A "not via HS2" fare would simplify matters immensely.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A "not via HS2" fare would simplify matters immensely.

I suspect it'll be the default that no existing fares will be valid on HS2 at all, and you'll just split with dedicated, yield managed, wholly separate fares. Like the dastardly cheese-eaters from across La Manche do.

It's very different in concept to HS1 domestic services which are just souped up 350/1s with a pointy nose and no 1st (and an uncanny resemblence to a high speed 313 ).

 

[Ianno87]

A "not via HS2" fare would simplify matters immensely.

Would it? Why would you actively incentivise people to *not* use HS2 in a world where there is no TOC-on-TOC competition?

 

[21C101]

I suspect it'll be the default that no existing fares will be valid on HS2 at all, and you'll just split with dedicated, yield managed, wholly separate fares.

It's very different in concept to HS1 domestic services which are just souped up 350/1s with a pointy nose and no 1st (and an uncanny resemblence to a high speed 313 ).

I can't think of another high speed railway in then world where the vast majority of trains are shortish distance commuter trains and barely get up to line speed before slowing down for the next station.

That thought occured to me as I passed through Deal on one to Margate observing the semaphores, gated crossings and other Southern paraphanalia from the 30s. (it had heen diverted via Dover due to engineering work on the Wye Line.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would it? Why would you actively incentivise people to *not* use HS2 in a world where there is no TOC-on-TOC competition?

There will still be a need for market separation, i.e. to be able to charge people who will pay more a higher fare and people who are on a budget less. Even the nationalised railways of Europe mostly do this for that reason. But that won't need several routes competing to run to Brum, it would be enough to have it as a "regional only" fare to use on WMR and LNR etc.

The LNR Liverpools (and associated fares) are a bit like that. Few people who aren't Desiro enthusiasts will accept a 5 hour journey via Brum on a 350/2 if they can have a 2 hour journey direct. But what it does do is open up rail to people who would otherwise use a coach or car share with their mates in an old banger.

I don't however think Chiltern needs to provide for that in the way they presently do, and indeed I'd expect most people doing this to use what is currently LNR for that purpose.

 

[21C101]

Would it? Why would you actively incentivise people to *not* use HS2 in a world where there is no TOC-on-TOC competition?

For much the same reason that "not via HS1" fares exist on HS1 despite being operated by the same TOC as the classic iines since it opened.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can't think of another high speed railway in then world where the vast majority of trains are shortish distance commuter trains and barely get up to line speed before slowing down for the next station.

That thought occured to me as I passed through Deal on one to Margate observing the semaphores, gated crossings and other Southern paraphanalia from the 30s. (it had heen diverted via Dover due to engineering work on the Wye Line.

There are few countries in the world where people commute quite as far as they do to London so as to necessitate such a thing, though there are "TERGVs" in France (Train express regionale local services operating on the high speed line using TGV trains) and I think there are some high speed locals in Germany, though I think they use classic 200km/h LHCS (old IR sets I think) for that one.

 

[Ianno87]

I can't think of another high speed railway in then world where the vast majority of trains are shortish distance commuter trains and barely get up to line speed before slowing down for the next station.

This is off topic, because this will most definitely not be the case on the majority of HS2.

There will still be a need for market separation, i.e. to be able to charge people who will pay more a higher fare and people who are on a budget less. Even the nationalised railways of Europe mostly do this for that reason. But that won't need several routes competing to run to Brum, it would be enough to have it as a "regional only" fare to use on WMR and LNR etc.

The LNR Liverpools (and associated fares) are a bit like that. Few people who aren't Desiro enthusiasts will accept a 5 hour journey via Brum on a 350/2 if they can have a 2 hour journey direct. But what it does do is open up rail to people who would otherwise use a coach or car share with their mates in an old banger.

I don't however think Chiltern needs to provide for that in the way they presently do, and indeed I'd expect most people doing this to use what is currently LNR for that purpose.

Although with enough capacity, no reason why that couldn't be HS2 at different times of day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Although with enough capacity, no reason why that couldn't be HS2 at different times of day.

Yes, true, though you've also got to find a way not to only charge a tenner to someone who will pay £100. And First Class is dead as a business product, I'm not even totally convinced HS2 will even have it, or if it does it'll be aimed at leisure travellers and self-upgraders.