HS2 won't make much difference to most of the XC routes, particularly the main SW to Scotland one.
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Avanti West Coast Class 221 to CrossCountry
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HS2 won't make much difference to most of the XC routes, particularly the main SW to Scotland one.
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Purple Orange
On Moderation
How? Almost the entire market from Brum to Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle and Scotland will be taken out. Everything north of York will be on a HS2 or NPR train.
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It'll be years before the eastern arm is operational, if it ever is, and there is a lot of use from stations beyond Birmingham and York.
NPR is nothing more than a concept which may never happen.
How will travel to and from thw SW be 'taken out', even if both of these actually do happen before the Voyagers need replacing (which is unlikely).
Purple Orange
On Moderation
If XC is a service where very few people do the end to end journey and most do short stretches, why not design a network that actually reflects the state of rail travel needs?
It doesn’t matter how long it takes for the eastern arm to be built, the fact is that if it is built, it will remove the need for XC north of York and take the majority of passengers who travel on the Leeds-Brum stretches. NPR is not just a concept about the idea of a new line between Manchester & Leeds via Bradford, but look at the state of the rail network with just Trans Pennine Route Upgrade and the Western HS2 leg built. A much better fit for the Birmingham-Leeds-Newcastle-Edinburgh will be going via Manchester on HS2 and reversing, due to a much faster journey time than the service via Sheffield. In any event, XC will completely change.
The chances of these actually happening before replacement of the Voyagers is not high.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
It only takes completion of the western branch of HS2, which should happen between 2035-2040. HSTs are still knocking about so no reason Voyagers can't.
Err, no it doesn't - it needs the eastern branch as well, plus this as yet conceptual (there are no definite plans yet, and that will take years) NPR rail as well for anything past Leeds.
Rather unlikely that Voyagers will last 40 years - HSTs were an adaptable design and very well suited to what they were used for. Voyagers are inflexible and not well suited to anything.
Voyagers were suited at the time they were ordered but quickly arent due to low capacity and XC having a lot of passenger growth.
They do have their problems, there are too many disabled toilets and they can't be removed due to being part of the bodyshell. The electronic reservations are fine but could have really done with a light by them to easily find an unreserved seat. Steel bodies is also not great.
They were overcrowded at busier times pretty much from when they were introduced - at the time I was doing Yorkshire to Somerset several times a year and Leeds-Birmingham (sometimes Bristol) was usually fairly full.
About the only things in their favour are that they have god acceleration, and they are reliable.
It would have improved it for sure - but they'd still have been too short given the loads they carry in normal times, and the likely amount of suppressed demand.
True - although XC weren't the worst for this. I think that dubious accolade went to TPE (back when it was just 185s), who would routinely sell cheap advance tickets on trains which were certain to be crush-loaded with commuters on walk up and season tickets.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
Yes it does. As I referred to earlier, completion of the west branch and the junction at Piccadilly towards Leeds will do. TRU will only improve that and make the current XC route obsolete. Nothing there is conceptual given there are detailed plans. Forget the Bradford route - that will never see light of day.
Brum-Leeds XC is 117 mins. Brum-Manc HS2 is 40 mins; Manc-Leeds is 49 mins today and 39 mins with TRU. If you include 5 mins reverse at Piccadilly, that gives a total of 84 mins. Clearly if you are travelling from Newcastle, York or Leeds to Birmingham it will make sense to go via Manchester rather than the legacy XC route, saving you 32 mins. Obviously if the east branch is built then that would be faster still.
People may want to travel to/from stations in between, but that doesn’t mean the current XC service is the best thing for the job, especially given so much is diesel under wires. It will be better to chop up XC in to shorter journeys and north of York will not be needed.
Given that this proposed NPR is a long way off, how do you think all this extra traffic between Leeds and Manchester is going to be accommodated, given that the line is pretty much full at present?
Detailed plans or no, it's still conceptual until the project has actually been signed off, funded and preparations started.
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Removing through journeys would not be popular at all. While it does have a lot of fairly short-distance passengers, there are also a reasonable number doing longer journeys,
Purple Orange
On Moderation
Between Leeds & Manchester? Longer trains. Are you saying HS2 & TRU is just conceptual?
HS2 getting to Manchester is 20 years away, quite possibly more given that this type of project tends to have delays. It's not gong to be aceptable or practical to continue with Voyagers on XC for all that time - and them being diesel-only will lead to increasing pressure to replace them given that they run a lot of miles under the wires.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
Even 15-20 years away, surely you must recognise that HS2 will affect XC.
Probably actually at least 20-25 years, the way these things go - assuming it doesn't get abandoned once it reaches Birmingham.
And I'm afraid I simply don't recognise that removing some of the current through journeys between pairs of large cities is likely to be considered acceptable.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
It’s clearly ineffective to run a Plymouth - Edinburgh service in light of there being nobody wishing to use it if there is a much faster service. You can speculate about timescales all you wish because times not a factor here. HS2 is happening and it is so far approved as far as Crewe. It will go to Manchester and the onl6 question mark is Leeds.
Even if nobody uses said service for long through journeys, will there not still be demand for the shorter legs and local services which XC ends up providing? Which seems to be operationally convenient to provide as part of these long trips.
As well as HS2 it would seem to need an improvement in more regional services to be able to scrap XC services and reduce their rolling stock requirements.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
Yes there would be, but north of York is where it seems to get curtailed. Hence why it will have a big impact upon XC. It may well become Bristol-York and Bristol-Manchester, but there wouldn’t be as much of a need for Newcastle-Reading or Manchester-Bournemouth. The south coast services may well end up terminating at Birmingham, or heading to another destination entirely. I read somewhere about Hull being an end destination, so the Scotland-SW route is certainly going to be affected, which is contradictory to the premise that HS2 would not affect XC.
quantinghome
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This is a good point. Back in the 90s before the XC timetable was completely overhauled, there were gaps in the Leeds-Birmingham service which meant it was sometimes quicker to go via Manchester. Given Brum-Leeds is only hourly, the more frequent services for Brum-Manc and Manc-Leeds could mean that relatively modest improvements in journey time will push the via Manchester option into contention on journey planner software. There is one issue though: fast TPE services are half-hourly at Piccadilly and route around the Ordsall chord, so even after TRU you'd be looking at an average 15 minute transfer and a longer journey of around 49 minutes from Piccadilly to Leeds.
There may be a change when Phase 2a opens, IF HS2 can actually run a Curzon St - Manchester service via Crewe, noting that this depends on having capacity available from Crewe to Stockport. If not, then it's a case of waiting for Phase 2b, which will certainly give a faster and more frequent journey time for Brum-Leeds. However, it won't be a massive change: 40 + 15 + 49 = 104 minutes and many passengers may choose to stick with a direct service that take 15 minutes longer. NPR will change this but that is going to be built after the HS2 eastern leg.
XC journeys from Birmingham to York and beyond will be relatively unaffected by improvements to Brum-Manc and Manc-Leeds journey times. Brum-York via Doncaster is already under two hours so the advantages of going via Manchester are much reduced.
What it all points to is that there is no good substitute for the HS2 eastern leg, and we need to be making this point as much as possible.
Assuming HS2 does get built in full then it will clearly affect XC at some point, and I think some consideration aught to be made to allow trains to the south west to access HS2 at Birmingham and electrification to at least Bristol to allow classic compatible sets to run to Bristol and Cardiff or at least a connection at Curzon Street, but that clearly a very long way off any possible consideration and we don't know for sure if even all of HS2 is going to be built.
The idea of running Leeds to Birmingham services via Manchester using HS2 and NPR has legs if the Eastern leg isn't built, but HS2 and TRU I'm not sure it will really have the capacity for that, In any case I think you have to build either the Eastern leg or NPR your not going to get away with not building either, otherwise the whole of Yorkshire, the North East is going to go nuts at the competative advantage given to the West Midlands and North West.
So without trying to turn it into a HS2 debate, as far as XC rolling stock is concerned I certainly think they need to be looking at Voyager replacement within the next 10 years significantly before any likely completion of HS2. You could argue they should be looking at it now really although that would likely mean writing off Voyagers before they are life expired, but gas guzzling Voyagers running between York and Edinburgh, Birmingham and Manchester and even Basingstoke and Bournemouth is less than ideal really.
The idea of running Leeds to Birmingham services via Manchester using HS2 and NPR has legs if the Eastern leg isn't built, but HS2 and TRU I'm not sure it will really have the capacity for that, In any case I think you have to build either the Eastern leg or NPR your not going to get away with not building either, otherwise the whole of Yorkshire, the North East is going to go nuts at the competative advantage given to the West Midlands and North West.
So without trying to turn it into a HS2 debate, as far as XC rolling stock is concerned I certainly think they need to be looking at Voyager replacement within the next 10 years significantly before any likely completion of HS2. You could argue they should be looking at it now really although that would likely mean writing off Voyagers before they are life expired, but gas guzzling Voyagers running between York and Edinburgh, Birmingham and Manchester and even Basingstoke and Bournemouth is less than ideal really.
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irish_rail
On Moderation
Whenever passengers are asked if they would rather be on a train diverted round the houses during engineering work, or get off and get on a bus even if it is quicker , the response is always they would rather stick with being on the same train and not having the hassle of changing.
There will remain alot of people who will want direct services to continue post hs2 and the idea that everyone in the south west will be happy that their direct services are taken away is down right wrong.
There will remain alot of people who will want direct services to continue post hs2 and the idea that everyone in the south west will be happy that their direct services are taken away is down right wrong.
The Planner
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That only applies to a certain time scale, once it gets past an hour I think it swings the other way.
Aictos
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This, you've hit the nail on the head with your post because despite HS2 freeing up capacity on East Coast, West Coast and Midland Mainlines you will still have people using the classic XC network who prefer direct trains if possible.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
I’m not too sure that TRU only will mean it’s not feasible. Remember that the current plans for Piccadilly have the Leeds junction facing east to Leeds in the plans now. That junction just needs to connect to the Guide Bridge line, which means the level of investment required is just between Piccadilly & Stalybridge (assuming electrification the whole way by the time HS2 is built). We also need to see the plans for the line between Huddersfield & Stalybridge, which could theoretically be a stretch of new build NPR line. TRU has 4 fast, 2 semi-fast and 2 stoppers in the plan. That means the two Birmingham-Manchester HS2 services could form a direct Birmingham-Leeds service, taking two of the fast paths without anyone needing to change trains.
The timescales we are talking about here, I believe, are well within the lifetime of the Voyagers. As such cascading the 221s to XC should do the trick.
I suspect it depends on where the change is, whether it's a tight connection, and how complex the change is. A half hour cross platform change at New Street is okay - not too far to walk, reasonably nice building, plenty of seating and a range of places to get something to eat and drink. Half a mile walk up the platform at Curzon Street, and then a 10 minute walk or a tram to New Street takes the comfortable change time up to at least 45 minutes, and makes the whole experience a lot less pleasant. Hiking over from the HS2 platforms to the other side of Piccadilly and then joining the crowds on the least-pleasant platforms at normal Piccadilly is probably almost as bad as the Birmingham change.
Purple Orange
On Moderation
I don’t think anybody will be required to change trains at Piccadilly.
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