Covid-19 to have a permanent downward effect on commuting patterns with more partial working from home?

[RuralRambler]

That only works if productivity isn't a key driver in the success of a business. A company showing a loss of productivity might well lose business as a result, especially if the competition is more productive.

Especially if customer service levels don't improve, customers will start leaving existing suppliers and try their competitors. I've had countless poor experiences over the past year, not just ridiculous delays in telephone queues and emails/enquiry forms taking several days to be replied to. But also when you do manage to speak to someone, they often can't do what you need them to do, either because their computer network is down, or they don't have the usual full access to the computer network they have at their office, or they don't know how to do something and can't ask the guy on the next desk (as they're on their own) so have to escalate it to someone who can do it (inevitably leading to another several day delay). A lot of things are so much quicker and easier when done in the workplace environment when there are others around them.

 

[Mag_seven]

Especially if customer service levels don't improve, customers will start leaving existing suppliers and try their competitors. I've had countless poor experiences over the past year, not just ridiculous delays in telephone queues and emails/enquiry forms taking several days to be replied to. But also when you do manage to speak to someone, they often can't do what you need them to do, either because their computer network is down, or they don't have the usual full access to the computer network they have at their office, or they don't know how to do something and can't ask the guy on the next desk (as they're on their own) so have to escalate it to someone who can do it (inevitably leading to another several day delay). A lot of things are so much quicker and easier when done in the workplace environment when there are others around them.

At the end of the day it will be up to individual companies what arrangements they make for their employees. As a customer of these companies all I am concerned about is the effect on customer care. I have already been frustrated this evening when ringing up an insurance company to try to renew a policy only to be told by an answering machine that they are working reduced hours (contrary to the hours shown on my reminder letter) and that I should call back tomorrow. Not good enough.

 

[telstarbox]

Of course call centres never gave anyone disappointing customer service before Covid Obviously not everyone will agree but investment in IT and proper arrangements to cover hours can largely mitigate this.

 

[Bald Rick]

You might also see organisations moving from expensive city centres to well-connected locations a bit further out like Croydon or Coventry.

It’s quite conceivable the opposite will happen. Central London office rents are going to tumble, which may encourage employers back there in order to attract a wider workforce.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Working at Home is not ideal for new starts or people seeking work experience. Even if the job has an element of site visits.

Full time remote working I probably agree, but again very few people will likely be talking about full time remote working. For most it will likely be a split, which absolutely can work for new starters.

 

[317 forever]

It is not just the commute that is relevant but the working hours, shift pattern and transport at certain times. For early starts I found buses slow midweek and trains non-existent on Sundays.

For the latest shifts I find it handy to have a cooked lunch just before I start work at home. When I waited until I got home to cook, I would feel bloated then wake up early anyway. I would feel seriously reluctant to work the awkward shifts in the office again now.

 

[Bantamzen]

Depends what you take into account. Travel is a big chunk, obviously, but all those breakfasts, lunches, coffees, beers after work, dry cleaning, suits, work shirts, work shoes, etc soon add up. And I don’t understand how anyone should heating bills have gone up if the house is normally occupied!

Really, you don't understand how adults working from home & potentially kids being taught from home when normally most if not all would be out during the day increases energy costs?

 

[Bald Rick]

Really, you don't understand how adults working from home & potentially kids being taught from home when normally most if not all would be out during the day increases energy costs?

I understand that perfectly well! Which is why I said if the house is normally occupied. Which for many families it is (including I might add, every house on my road).

 

[Bantamzen]

I understand that perfectly well! Which is why I said if the house is normally occupied. Which for many families it is (including I might add, every house on my road).

And how many of those houses had people permanently working from home pre-covid? Because you do understand that energy costs don't just include heating, which is why I referred to energy costs.

 

[83A]

Interesting thread.

I was actually working from home a couple of days a week before Covid. However now I have a work from home contract and our company has closed many offices around the world. We still have a lab I can visit (I’m a broadcast engineer) but I might only go in once a week when I have testing to do.

The one big change for me is not doing customer visits at the moment. I have been surprised how much we can do remotely but some projects have been a challenge and we have a backlog of work to cover when restrictions lift.

I like working at home as I can flex my hours as I please. I tend to start at a normal time, take 2-3 hours for lunch and then work late to deal with the USA. Or if my daughter is with me I start very early and finish at 3ish to pick her up from school. Basically as long as I get my work done they don’t care when I do it.

However there are a lot of people in the company who are now missing going to the office and are very upset the working from home contract has been imposed on them. They are setup on the kitchen table for example and don’t have office space at home. Many also miss the social aspect of the job. I worked with a load of software engineers who never said much anyway so my job never was very social

 

[Bald Rick]

And how many of those houses had people permanently working from home pre-covid? Because you do understand that energy costs don't just include heating, which is why I referred to energy costs.

None.

 

[Horizon22]

None.

Then they wouldn't be permanently occupied surely? Kids at school, parents at work? 8-5ish (dependent on children) the house could be left fairly cold with heating only set to ramp up an hour or so beforehand everyone gets back. So that's maybe an additional 30-40h heating a week.

 

[Bald Rick]

Then they wouldn't be permanently occupied surely? Kids at school, parents at work? 8-5ish (dependent on children) the house could be left fairly cold with heating only set to ramp up an hour or so beforehand everyone gets back. So that's maybe an additional 30-40h heating a week.

Perhaps I’m not making myself clear. There’s quite a few homes out there which have at least one occupant who doesn’t work or go to school / college, and are therefore typically at home through the day (not working). If someone else in the home then starts to work at home, it makes no difference.

This is the case for every house on my road.

 

[Horizon22]

Perhaps I’m not making myself clear. There’s quite a few homes out there which have at least one occupant who doesn’t work or go to school / college, and are therefore typically at home through the day (not working). As is the case for every house on my road.

Oh I see - well I guess this depends strongly on demographics / wealth / geography too. A very broad generalisation would be that the new WFH brigade could afford the uplift in costs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Oh I see - well I guess this depends strongly on demographics / wealth / geography too.

And health.

Two of the homes on my road include someone who normally goes to work, and another who requires full time care.

 

[Greybeard33]

8-5ish (dependent on children) the house could be left fairly cold with heating only set to ramp up an hour or so beforehand everyone gets back. So that's maybe an additional 30-40h heating a week.

When the heating is turned off for 8 hours during the day, it has to work flat out to get the temperature back up afterwards, whereas if left on the thermostat will switch it off for much of the time anyway. The percentage energy saving is much less than the proportion of hours the heating is off.

The total heating energy per day required is proportional to the temperature difference between inside and outside, averaged over the 24 hours. Even in cold weather, the temperature in a well insulated house will only drop by a couple of degrees between 8am and 4pm (the warmest part of the day) with the heating off, so the energy saving is quite small. For much of the year I find I do not need the heating on during those hours even when I am in the house all day.

A laptop for WFH uses very little electricity, while the energy used for cooking at home costs far less than eating out.

 

[dan5324]

Public transport will change forever. No doubt about it. Especially London and other city based. Have a feeling far usage is gonna surge, even with all the crap they are bringing in to deter car use. Cycle usage will rocket too

 

[philosopher]

When the heating is turned off for 8 hours during the day, it has to work flat out to get the temperature back up afterwards, whereas if left on the thermostat will switch it off for much of the time anyway. The percentage energy saving is much less than the proportion of hours the heating is off.

The total heating energy per day required is proportional to the temperature difference between inside and outside, averaged over the 24 hours. Even in cold weather, the temperature in a well insulated house will only drop by a couple of degrees between 8am and 4pm (the warmest part of the day) with the heating off, so the energy saving is quite small. For much of the year I find I do not need the heating on during those hours even when I am in the house all day.

A laptop for WFH uses very little electricity, while the energy used for cooking at home costs far less than eating out.

In the long term WFH will very likely increase home energy use as people will want to live in larger homes if they are WFH. Larger homes generally are going to use more energy than smaller homes.

A shift to people moving to live in larger homes already seems to be happening with the rise of house prices in more rural areas.

 

[Domh245]

In the long term WFH will very likely increase home energy use as people will want to live in larger homes if they are WFH. Larger homes generally are going to use more energy than smaller homes.

Counter argument to that is that if people are WFH in large homes, they're more likely to invest in the house with things like roomstats to negate having to heat the entire home if they're only in one room 8 hours a day

 

[PTR 444]

Public transport will change forever. No doubt about it. Especially London and other city based. Have a feeling far usage is gonna surge, even with all the crap they are bringing in to deter car use. Cycle usage will rocket too

Not necessarily. Any surge in car usage will lead to huge increases in congestion, and that will in turn lead to people switching back to trains as they become increasingly fed up with roads more gridlocked than ever.

 

[takno]

Look at it this way.

You get two job offers

I admire your optimism in the post-Covid post-Brexit landscape. I think for a lot of people it will be more a case of "you get one job offer six months after you start looking, you take it, and then you worry about how you're going to pay for season ticket afterwards"

 

[RuralRambler]

Not necessarily. Any surge in car usage will lead to huge increases in congestion, and that will in turn lead to people switching back to trains as they become increasingly fed up with roads more gridlocked than ever.

Not necessarily. There'll be a proportional number of commuters who used to travel by car but are now, likewise, working from home, so the roads will be quieter because of them. I think it could be a few years before we see the new "norm" for both car and public transport use. We may see road use "evened out" more rather than having the rush hour peaks, similar to the expectation with public transport reduced peak usage.

 

[dan5324]

d

Not necessarily. There'll be a proportional number of commuters who used to travel by car but are now, likewise, working from home, so the roads will be quieter because of them. I think it could be a few years before we see the new "norm" for both car and public transport use. We may see road use "evened out" more rather than having the rush hour peaks, similar to the expectation with public transport reduced peak usage.

Car Use in some areas is already back to pre Covid levels. Especially parts of outer London. Can’t say the same for rail usage. It’s what hit 60% at best during last summer. Not a good outlook. And with fuel duty frozen and rail fares increasing I can’t really see it changing.

 

[Ianno87]

d

Car Use in some areas is already back to pre Covid levels. Especially parts of outer London.

I think that is demonstrating induced demand to some extent. Car travel has returned so strongly because it is relatively easy - just enough less traffic from pre-Covid to make a difference to congestion, easier than usual parking in town centres etc. So people are generally preferring driving at present because it is relatively easy. Once pre-Covid normal returns that won’t be the case, and public transport use will return.

 

[dctraindriver]

Not necessarily. There'll be a proportional number of commuters who used to travel by car but are now, likewise, working from home, so the roads will be quieter because of them. I think it could be a few years before we see the new "norm" for both car and public transport use. We may see road use "evened out" more rather than having the rush hour peaks, similar to the expectation with public transport reduced peak usage.

Not necessarily. The traffic jam that I sat in today was very reminiscent of pre covid. It was literally queuing for change of lights, no other reason. Seems people are back out and about....

 

[Bikeman78]

Not everyone pays £5K in travel, I know I certainly don't. Having just had my energy readings done & bill amended I'm now looking at a loss thanks to working from home, so a pay cut in whatever manner isn't going to be a good idea for a lot of us.

I'm sure the same applies to me. Cycling to work doesn't cost much. Even if I bought a new bike every year, it would only cost around 500 quid.

 

[Mikey C]

Obviously car use has recovered quicker, as it's 100% "Covid" safe if you drive alone or within your bubbles, whereas public transport has a genuine Covid risk. AND is still being discouraged

This isn't a reflection of a longer term modal shift though

 

[37424]

I expect Car usage to go higher than Pre-covid in some cases, I wont be using Public Transport until I have had my second jab and the infection rate is very low. I only tend to use the train for leisure journeys these days anyway which can be done by car instead.

A friend of mine who works for a local council has said that they will return to the office 3 days a week and WFH 2 days a week, previously he very rarely worked from home even though his job doesn't really require him to be in the office much of the time, although that won't be until both he and his wife have had their second jab. He normally commutes by Tram but may look at other options.

 

[philosopher]

Obviously car use has recovered quicker, as it's 100% "Covid" safe if you drive alone or within your bubbles, whereas public transport has a genuine Covid risk. AND is still being discouraged

This isn't a reflection of a longer term modal shift though

Those who drive to work I reckon are more likely to have jobs where working from home is not feasible, for example a factory worker working on an industrial estate with poor public transport links. This could explain why car use has recovered more quickly. Office jobs are more likely to be situated in locations easily accessible by public transport but a pain to get to if driving.

 

[route101]

Those who drive to work I reckon are more likely to have jobs where working from home is not feasible, for example a factory worker working on an industrial estate with poor public transport links. This could explain why car use has recovered more quickly. Office jobs are more likely to be situated in locations easily accessible by public transport but a pain to get to if driving.

Warehouses often have poor links, was looking at jobs in some industrial estates, just not feasible without a car. Cars cost a lot initially to buy so was only looking at places I could to easily.