Integrated Rail Plan - What Are Your Predictions?

[Purple Orange]

Transport for the North (TfN) recently outlined their agreed plan for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) and the Department for Transport (DfT) will eventually be releasing the Integrated Rail Plan for the North &Midlands (IRP), covering High Speed 2 Phase 2b (HS2) and Midlands Engine Rail (MER), which is intended to shine a light on the way forward. A lot of acronyms, but we can struggle through together.

What do you think it will include?

My prediction is that it will support:

• HS2 Western branch from Crewe to Manchester
• HS2 Eastern branch from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway (stage 1)
• HS2 Eastern branch from East Midlands Parkway to Leeds (stage 2)
• Small reopening on lines closed by Brechin (e.g. Leemside)
• Trans Pennine Route Upgrade & full electrification (Manc-York) (NPR stage 1)
• Hope Valley upgrade
• A new line from East Manchester to Huddersfield (NPR stage 2)
• Midland Mainline electrification to Sheffield

While it appears a lot on paper, it falls short of what is being asked for by TfN, but it will be the Stage 2 sections of HS2 and NPR that will take the longest to be delivered. I predict that these sections of line will be kicked far in to the future to the point it becomes the responsibility of another government to make the final decision, resulting in Johnson neither fully committing or fully withdrawing support for the final stage of HS2 to Leeds or a new line across the Pennines.

 

[HSTEd]

I expect most of it will come to nothing.

TfN have already asked for the other major northern tranport scheme (the Road tunnel) to be axed because it was "too expensive".
I expect most of the rail upgrades to be jettisoned for the same reason.

 

[Purple Orange]

I expect most of it will come to nothing.

TfN have already asked for the other major northern tranport scheme (the Road tunnel) to be axed because it was "too expensive".
I expect most of the rail upgrades to be jettisoned for the same reason.

So what do you think it will be left with? Do you think the IRP will just be a document that says “No”?

 

[HSTEd]

So what do you think it will be left with? Do you think the IRP will just be a document that says “No”?

They will dress up minor upgrades as a revolution.

I half expect a return of bionic duckweed.

 

[class26]

They will dress up minor upgrades as a revolution.

I half expect a return of bionic duckweed.

If you read this months "Modern Railways" Roger Ford thinks Bionic Duckweed is alive and kicking. His article is entitled "Shapps goes full duckweed"

 

[YorksLad12]

One North was a lobbying/interest group of northern authorities, which then became a statutory body as TfN just as the people who supported the idea moved on (thanks to the EU Referendum). One of the franchises it was co-signatory to has been 'nationalised', and it has no fiscal powers of its own. I'm not sure they even have a new Chief Executive yet.

Prediction: they will write something that carries as much weight with DfT as the opinions of people contributing to this thread. Sadly.

 

[Purple Orange]

You’re probably right that TfN carries little weight with the DfT. At the same time as looking at the negative side of the issue, many (including me) are looking at this purely from a rail perspective. The M62 is the main route traversing the Pennines and the trans pennine mainline needs to be seen as a preferred alternative. How much work needs to be done to make that happen?

On Google maps, from where I live on the edge of Greater Manchester, it is expecting it to take 70 minutes to drive to Leeds city centre. The Trans Pennine Mainline needs to be able to compete with driving, to the extent that it is easier for people to get their local commuter train in to Manchester or Leeds, change on to a TPE service and get there faster than you can in a car. Granted that in ‘normal’ times, congestion will mean it takes 90 minutes to drive - it would take at least 20 minutes to get on the M60 rather than the 10 mins it says it will take, let alone slower driving around the M60.

Therefore to be properly competitive, the Manchester Piccadilly/Victoria to Leeds leg needs to be under 40 mins. Trans Pennine Route Upgrade with full electrification could reduce it to 39 mins.

 

[YorksLad12]

To be clear: I am positive that *some* of the plans are achievable, because they should have been done yonks ago. Leeds-Hudderfield-Manchester (either station) should be 45 minutes by now, with faster-accelerating rolling stock and electrification bringing that down to 40 minutes.

I just don't think TfN is a body we should particularly invest any faith in. They're good at making plans, less good at being able to deliver them. Remember the Electrification Task Force report from 2015? That was TfN/Rail North.

 

[Purple Orange]

To be clear: I am positive that *some* of the plans are achievable, because they should have been done yonks ago. Leeds-Hudderfield-Manchester (either station) should be 45 minutes by now, with faster-accelerating rolling stock and electrification bringing that down to 40 minutes.

I just don't think TfN is a body we should particularly invest any faith in. They're good at making plans, less good at being able to deliver them. Remember the Electrification Task Force report from 2015? That was TfN/Rail North.

Oh I’m with you on having little faith in TfN. I feel that the NIC report from last November gives a much better clue as to how things will play out. Unless the government seriously backs NPR in a meaningful way (I.e. backing the Regional 25%+ option at least), the only projects we have that have any kegs are HS2 and TPRU. Perhaps the ‘Upgrades Only’ or ‘Long Distance +25%’ options are realistic.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Won't be released until after May elections as per New Civil Engineer news item

The publication of the government’s eagerly-awaited Integrated Rail Plan will be delayed until after the local elections due to purdah rules.
The plan will set out how HS2 Phase 2b will work alongside other schemes including Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands Rail Hub and the Trans-Pennine Upgrade.

It was earmarked for publication “early in 2021”. However, rail minister Chris Heaton-Harris has confirmed that the Department for Transport (DfT) will not have time to publish the report before purdah starts later this month.

It means the report will not be published before the elections take place on May 6.

Heaton-Harris told The Yorkshire Post: "I think we're going to be stuck by purdah, to be quite frank. So I don't think we'll hear about it until after the local elections.

"We were really quite hopeful that we'd be able to but realistically, local government elections, purdah starts essentially in a week's time and there are still elements of work to be done on it so the honest answer is that it's going to be after purdah."

Then there will be Queens Speech on 11th May so will be after then and not forgetting the 17th May for next big lockdown relaxation which they will want media focussed on so they get the credit for that so late May early June is my guestimate now.