22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[SuspectUsual]

Why does he insist on using the word “irreversible”?

Has he learned nothing?

Oh, it’s to appease his fellow Tory MPs

Every day Johnson finds a way to make me detest him more and more

 

[yorksrob]

I do hope they find a way to enable some element of indoor hospitality prior to stage 3. Obviously any relaxation at stage 2 is welcome, however I think a lot of businesses will struggle to make a business case for outdoor opening only, particularly those without large beer gardens.

Of course we have the precedent of lockdown 1 when such businesses opened without an increase in infections, however I suspect that the prejudices of the health establishment are preventing a swift repeat of that this time.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Feb 2021 ==

Oh, it’s to appease his fellow Tory MPs

You mean those Tory MP's who are providing the only effective opposition to the Executive at the moment ?

 

[bramling]

Facebook friend of mine (who, in fairness has been shielding near constantly since last March) had previously been calling for lockdowns, calling the government "Murderers" for not locking down sooner etc. seems to have changed tune today and wanting hotels etc to reopen (they were vaccinated a few weeks back).

Perhaps the tide of opinion is turning on the matter.

I’d say the more relevant bit there is that the person in question has now been vaccinated...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You mean those Tory MP's who are providing the only effective opposition to the Executive at the moment ?

Absolutely it was ONLY Tory MPs that challenged BoJo in the HoC earlier that he said he would follow the data but hasn't said what the data they are using and the thresholds for each stage. CRG need to step upto the plate here to press govt for the metrics and thresholds they are using and bring in flexibility, either way, on dates as those thresholds are crossed.

 

[Jamiescott1]

No mention of vm (victory against masks) day ?

 

[HSTEd]

It's all on the vaccination programme now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

At least Desmond Swayne in the follow up debate has given it both barrels about he's not using the data to drive the roadmap.

 

[david1212]

The announcement is broadly in line with what I expected not least hotels and stays away from home 17th May so before the late May bank holiday and main UK holiday season. Including cinemas & theatres at the same time was surprise albeit with capacity limits. That may work for cinemas but theatres need to have a high proportion of seats sold to be viable. I did expect shops by 1st April even if hairdressers etc two or three weeks later.

Critical is that taken from

All COVID restrictions on social contact to be lifted on 21 June at the earliest, Boris Johnson reveals

'We're setting out what I hope and believe is a one-way road to freedom,' the PM said.

uk.news.yahoo.com

from he acknowledges

"we cannot escape the fact that lifting lockdown will result in more cases, more hospitalisations and sadly, more deaths"

but also

"We cannot persist indefinitely with restrictions that debilitate our economy, our physical and mental wellbeing, and the life chances of our children."

Equally all dates except 8th March are the earliest ones not commitments so leaving him a ' Get out of Jail ' card to play.

With the numbers already vaccinated and the targets set relative to Covid cases the hospital admission rate ought to be much lower. I think it will be the latter that will be core to determining if this plan is followed through. Further if the rate is high
a) I will be puzzled as to why
b) where then as there is no Plan B

The greatest risk / unknown I see is a very prevalent new Covid strain that the vaccines are much less effective against.

 

[PTR 444]

I’d be willing to know what constitutes a “practical course” at university. Mine is design based where use of a dedicated on-campus studio is highly encouraged but not mandatory, while most teaching on my course can be done remotely. I’m really hoping that this will be covered by the allowance to open up on the 8th March.

 

[MrKyleBuses]

One thing I noticed he's said is most restrictions will be lifted on June the 21st, but now all...
How long will this mean for Social Distancing and Mask Wearing which he has not really mentioned

 

[Philip Elliott]

No, I definitely remember reading that the surge in infections across September-October was thought to be largely caused by people coming back from holiday in Spain where a new mutation had recently been detected.

You are exactly right. The Spanish variant (20A.EU1) first emerged in northeastern Spain in the summer, quickly spreading across the country and then across Europe through September and October. There have been hundreds of references to it across the newsmedia so for people here to say they’ve never heard of it just shows the breathtaking level of ignorance that abounds here...

 

[island]

Yeah why has there always been leaks & the media ‘knows’ correctly sometimes weeks prior to official announcements?

What MP or Government official has been ‘selling info?’ can’t be giving out for free surely? Why giving it out at all?

Brown envelopes? Ok call me an old cynic

Nobody’s selling anything; it is a well-trodden path that the government briefs media outlets on background before officially announcing anything, so that if it gets a particularly negative reaction it can be tweaked.

Is there any point in the news briefing at 19:00 if everything is leaked out beforehand?

Sir Lindsay Hoyle has told Boris off for not telling the Commons first.

No mention of vm (victory against masks) day ?

One thing I noticed he's said is most restrictions will be lifted on June the 21st, but now all...
How long will this mean for Social Distancing and Mask Wearing which he has not really mentioned

There was a vague promise of a review sometime in May. I fear face coverings will be the last precaution to be dropped, as they’re perceived as a minor imposition, make people feel safer, and have wide public acceptance.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

One thing I noticed he's said is most restrictions will be lifted on June the 21st, but now all...
How long will this mean for Social Distancing and Mask Wearing which he has not really mentioned

Face coverings and social distancing requirements will be subject to a review before "stage 4".

 

[Darandio]

"It's irreversible but we cannot guarantee it's irreversible".

 

[Huntergreed]

"It's irreversible but we cannot guarantee it's irreversible".

Just to cover their backsides in case something goes horribly wrong and we end up in a lockdown again (which I wouldn't put past them).

 

[MikeWM]

So to summarise:

- Opening things more slowly than last time around, despite vaccines and increased natural immunity
- Increase in locations for mandatory masks (and broad hints that they will still be required next winter - in other words forever)
- Despite all previous protestations to the contrary, we're now going to consider domestic 'vaccine passports', creeping ever closer to a 'papers please' society and Chinese-style social credit system

Utterly underwhelmed but not remotely surprised.

 

[MrKyleBuses]

So to summarise:

- Opening things more slowly than last time around, despite vaccines and increased natural immunity
- Increase in locations for mandatory masks (and broad hints that they will still be required next winter - in other words forever)
- Despite all previous protestations to the contrary, we're now going to consider domestic 'vaccine passports', creeping ever closer to a 'papers please' society and Chinese-style social credit system

Utterly underwhelmed but not remotely surprised.

Would be ridiculous if we still have to wear masks even after every adult has not just got their first dose but their second dose too.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Would be ridiculous if we still have to wear masks even after every adult has not just got their first dose but their second dose too.

Especially as back in 2020 there was a period when they weren't sufficiently convinced of the effectiveness to make them mandatory at the time.

 

[Bald Rick]

So to summarise:

- Opening things more slowly than last time around, despite vaccines and increased natural immunity

This time we are removing restrictions with infection levels and hospital occupancy at a much, much higher level than last year (accepting that officially infections were lower, but testing was at around 5% of the level it is now). And a virus strain that is more infectious.

Increase in locations for mandatory masks (and broad hints that they will still be required next winter - in other words forever)

Next winter doesn’t equal “forever”. Even then it’s by no means certain, just a warning it *might* be necessary.

 

[peters]

You are exactly right. The Spanish variant (20A.EU1) first emerged in northeastern Spain in the summer, quickly spreading across the country and then across Europe through September and October. There have been hundreds of references to it across the newsmedia so for people here to say they’ve never heard of it just shows the breathtaking level of ignorance that abounds here...

Spain was added back on the quarantine list, soon after it was taken off. It resulted in Grant Shapps' department announcing the restriction, while he was on holiday in Spain! Initially he said he would stay and quarantine on return, then he said he would return home early as quarantine would affect his work.

Unfortunately, at the time there were too few checks on PLFs at the border and some people didn't bother with quarantine after returning from Spain.

I fear face coverings will be the last precaution to be dropped, as they’re perceived as a minor imposition, make people feel safer, and have wide public acceptance.

They do remind people there is a virus around, especially in places like supermarkets where there's a lot of others and it can be frustrating when people stand still in the same place for too long.

I imagine social distancing be dropped first, potentially allowing full capacity in venues and on public transport but with masks, which is then more beneficial to businesses than no masks but some seats unoccupied.

 

[g22]

So when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like. 12th April? 17th May?

 

[35B]

The Stanford university study is the one led by John Ioannidis - I'm sure you can find it yourself, and it's been linked here several times.

I am not 'cherry picking' Sweden - it's just an obvious example. Look at the Worldometers stats and it is very obvious that there is no correlation between severity of restrictions and the outcome.

Thank you for confirming - I'll check it out, though if it's what I think it is, I'd be interested in more recent evidence either way, and where it sits within the scientific consensus.

As for Sweden, I'm aware that the graphs don't show a correlation between the severity of legal restrictions and severity of outcome. However, the case for the Swedish approach also relies on discounting three factors. The first is the role of social compliance to distancing measures which were imposed by law here. The second is the way that the Swedish government have moved towards legislating restrictions, while the third is the significantly worse - economically and in health terms - outcomes for Sweden compared to its neighbours. Factored in, I consider that the Swedish outcome is significantly less favourable than is generally presented, and that the differences (and apparent advantages) of the Swedish approach are far less clear cut than argued.

Meanwhile, I'm glad you tacitly acknowledge the inherent implausibility of simultaneously arguing that lockdown doesn't work, that vaccinations can drive results even before vaccination is effective and widespread, and that natural variability is not correlated to seasonality.

 

[peters]

Especially as back in 2020 there was a period when they weren't sufficiently convinced of the effectiveness to make them mandatory at the time.

I think that was actually a case of the government misleading us. They knew PPE could stop the spread but weren't sure about more basic face coverings without further research. The government probably feared if they said masks must be worn then the price of PPE, which should have been going to front line health workers, would increase and the shortages of PPE would be more severe, crippling the NHS. Now the government has over-orded PPE and there's shipping containers full of it sat in Kent doing nothing, they aren't concerned.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This time we are removing restrictions with infection levels and hospital occupancy at a much, much higher level than last year (accepting that officially infections were lower, but testing was at around 5% of the level it is now). And a virus strain that is more infectious.

Hospitalisations in England are already below wave one peak and are falling at a far faster rate so by 8th March will be below 10k. The problem with this roadmap is its not based on any data metrics that they publish daily and there evading answering any questions on it from MPs or press. They keep saying we are following the data - what data?

 

[Andy Pacer]

So when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like. 12th April? 17th May?

12th April seems to be the general consensus

 

[peters]

So when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like. 12th April? 17th May?

12 April for local journeys but you should minimise the number of journeys you make. 17 May for any journey, including travelling 100+ miles to go on a weekend city break.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

12th April seems to be the general consensus

29th March is removal of stay at home so I will be using that date

 

[g22]

Thanks for the replies everyone.

 

[Watershed]

So when can I travel on a train for non essential travel to go wherever I like. 12th April? 17th May?

The general requirement to remain at home will cease as part of phase 1, part 2, which is pencilled in for 29 March.

At that point "non essential travel" will become a matter of guidance and not law.

I fully expect for the rail industry to continue to put out propaganda telling customers to get lost until some time beyond phase 1 part 2.

I would also have your rubber at the ready, in the incredibly unlikely ( who are we kidding, likely) event of things not going as promised.

 

[cuccir]

29th March is removal of stay at home so I will be using that date

Yes I'd have thought 29th March, which is when stay at home order ends.