Possible Alternatives to HS2

[takno]

Ever since the advent of Zoom, Teams etc, I get the feeling that some individuals are utterly convinced that rail travel will become extinct. And that home working will mean we never need to build new railway lines again.

I've been using using Google Hangouts/Meet to enable remote working for around 10 years. Skype has existed for longer than that, and people have been trying to convince me to use Zoom for several years. There's been no "advent" of these services just because a lot of people have been forced to pretend they are good enough to work with for a year.

 

[D365]

There's been no "advent" of these services just because a lot of people have been forced to pretend they are good enough to work with for a year.

That’s exactly what I mean by advent. This is the first year in which the majority of the working population has been forced into using teleconferencing because, in this time, we don’t have an alternative. And it’s a demonstration of why full time wfh isn’t sustainable in the long term.

My point is that some individuals seem to be think otherwise, and are convinced rail travel in particular will become obsolete, simply because of the fact that we can complete work from home. Without taking into account that it often is not a preferred option, plus that longer part-time commutes may well become feasible.

 

[Ianno87]

That’s exactly what I mean by advent. This is the first year in which the majority of the working population has been forced into using teleconferencing because, in this time, we don’t have an alternative. And it’s a demonstration of why full time wfh isn’t sustainable in the long term.

My point is that some individuals seem to be think otherwise, and are convinced rail travel in particular will become obsolete, simply because of the fact that we can complete work from home. Without taking into account that it often is not a preferred option, plus that longer part-time commutes may well become feasible.

It's also a big assumption that every company will actually give its employees a choice - some will (rightly or wrongly) mandate part or full time office attendance regardless.

 

[camflyer]

About 5 years to late, if we’re being honest.

More like 20 years too late.

But building infrastructure during a economic slow down is exactly the right thing to be doing so that the capacity will be there when the demand returns.

 

[Bald Rick]

More like 20 years too late.

Well yes, but no serious thinking was done on it till 2005/6.

But from that start point, it’s reasonable to assume that had Government taken some decisions more quickly, perhaps some better decisions by the project, and if there had been less concern over some of the objections (and thus less redesign, repeat consultation, and a shorter parliamentary process), we could be laying rails now.

 

[37424]

That’s exactly what I mean by advent. This is the first year in which the majority of the working population has been forced into using teleconferencing because, in this time, we don’t have an alternative. And it’s a demonstration of why full time wfh isn’t sustainable in the long term.

My point is that some individuals seem to be think otherwise, and are convinced rail travel in particular will become obsolete, simply because of the fact that we can complete work from home. Without taking into account that it often is not a preferred option, plus that longer part-time commutes may well become feasible.

I certainly don't think rail travel will become obsolete but there will be more working from home than before covid but less than in the current covid situation. A friend of mine who works for a government agency used to commute from Doncaster to Peterborough 4 days a week before covid. Since covid he has worked from home, post covid he will continue to work from home, his desk has already gone apparently and will only travel to Peterborough for an occasional meeting, and I'm sure that will apply for other companies as well but on the other hand I know the MD of an Engineering company who wants most people to go back to the office in London as soon as its safe to do so.

From a HS2 perspective there will still be leisure demand perhaps more so, and if demand from some journeys is below forecast then perhaps there might opportunities to bring additional destinations onto the network with the compatible trains which are not currently planned to be served by HS2.

A key thing for me is look at what we can get by freeing up more paths on the old networks hopefully more freight, and maybe we should be looking at things like high speed parcels trains for HS2 if passenger demand is below forecast.

 

[D365]

... but on the other hand I know the MD of an Engineering company who wants most people to go back to the office in London as soon as its safe to do so.

That's exactly what I am hoping for at my work. As a recent starter, it's tough not being able to tap someone when I have a question, for example.

Bringing it back to HS2, the East Midlands leg in particular is particularly appealing to me. That my company/industry is rather spread out across the country means HS2 will make it easier to do irregular commutes for meetings etc. Obviously this is a very specific case, but I can imagine others having a similar mindset.

 

[Bald Rick]

.

Bringing it back to HS2, the East Midlands leg in particular is particularly appealing to me. That my company/industry is rather spread out across the country means HS2 will make it easier to do irregular commutes for meetings etc. Obviously this is a very specific case, but I can imagine others having a similar mindset.

If HS2 only gets to East Mids, as suggested by the NIC, then I can see that being done relatively quickly. It’s only 50km and relatively straightforward.

 

[coppercapped]

The issue with ‘working from home’ is that in reality one is ‘living at work’.

If one has the luxury of being able to designate a room in the house as ‘the office’ and can close the door on it at the end of the day then living at work is possibly acceptable. If, on the other hand, you have to share the kitchen or dining room table with others and the children are at home because the schools are shut and you are living on the 14th floor of a tower block with no balcony then the pressures are very, very different.

My concern is that those people who will make the decisions on whether the organisation will continue to require that its staff ‘live at work’, the company finance directors or the MDs, have the luxury of space in the house and possibly a garden and will have a different attitude or understanding of the pressures people face who don’t live in a gilded cage. They may well make decisions on the basis of saving money on office accommodation that they see as being no longer needed — these are not necessarily the same decisions as those which are beneficial for the mental health of their staff or the longer term health of the organisation.

There will be pressures for people to meet again and see more of the world outside their four walls. That the technology is available to make it possible to live at work does not necessarily mean that one should. It would not surprise me in the slightest to see a rebound in commuting and business travel soon after contact restrictions are eased with the volume of travel dependent more on the health of the economy as a whole than whether any individual is working at home or in the office or factory. By the time HS2 is operational I am confident there will be a market for it.

 

[HST43257]

If HS2 only gets to East Mids, as suggested by the NIC, then I can see that being done relatively quickly. It’s only 50km and relatively straightforward.

As long as it can extend to Yorkshire after NPR and the rest of HS2, I’m ok with it going to East Mids only temporarily, though I’d quite like it to get to the Sheffield HS2 jn

 

[37424]

Personally if your going to build the eastern leg at all then I think you need to build to whole lot, if you just build it to the East Midlands then even with NPR it puts West York's the North East and presumably Sheffield at a significant disadvantage over the North West. In fact I have somewhat shifted my view in that I would now prefer the Eastern Leg in full in preference to NPR, I would settle for full electrification and upgrade of the existing TPE route instead, followed by a significant upgrade of the Calder Valley route.

 

[adamedwards]

If the eastern leg is not built in full then we will need to double Digswell Viaduct, which Grant Shapps will not want as it will cost him votes in his constituency. So I think he will be keen to build it. Plus the leveling up for the north will look pretty shabby and cost Johnson his majority. So I think it will happen.

 

[JonathanH]

If the eastern leg is not built in full then we will need to double Digswell Viaduct, which Grant Shapps will not want as it will cost him votes in his constituency. So I think he will be keen to build it. Plus the leveling up for the north will look pretty shabby and cost Johnson his majority. So I think it will happen.

Does a decision have to be made in this parliament or can it be deferred until after the next general election in 2024?

 

[HST43257]

Personally if your going to build the eastern leg at all then I think you need to build to whole lot, if you just build it to the East Midlands then even with NPR it puts West York's the North East and presumably Sheffield at a significant disadvantage over the North West. In fact I have somewhat shifted my view in that I would now prefer the Eastern Leg in full in preference to NPR, I would settle for full electrification and upgrade of the existing TPE route instead, followed by a significant upgrade of the Calder Valley route.

The issue is that there’s only so far you can go with the TPE current main route. The current TRU plan will not do everything needed for that corridor. NPR will be needed, though perhaps a few more years later because of the current passenger numbers situation...

 

[Hadders]

If the eastern leg is not built in full then we will need to double Digswell Viaduct, which Grant Shapps will not want as it will cost him votes in his constituency. So I think he will be keen to build it. Plus the leveling up for the north will look pretty shabby and cost Johnson his majority. So I think it will happen.

I'm not sure that the Digswell viaduct is the limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

 

[CW2]

I'm not sure that the Digswell viaduct is the limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

I'm not sure that the Digswell viaduct is the only limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

 

[37424]

If the eastern leg is not built in full then we will need to double Digswell Viaduct, which Grant Shapps will not want as it will cost him votes in his constituency. So I think he will be keen to build it. Plus the leveling up for the north will look pretty shabby and cost Johnson his majority. So I think it will happen.

I'm not sure you would, you could still take some Scottish Traffic off the ECML to HS2 via the WCML, and if you built NPR instead you could potentially take some West York's Traffic as well to HS2 but obviously the journey time to Leeds via NPR wouldn't be massively better so Leeds wouldn't be happy in that respect but you could do it from the point of view of relieving traffic on the East Coast, Bradford could gain with an NPR via Bradford and a direct HS2 service to London with a much better journey time than now.

It wouldn't be much benefit to the North East other than perhaps a quicker journey to the West Midlands, but then you need to balance how much capacity was available on NPR for its primary purpose of TPE services verses capacity to the West Midlands and London.

If you built the Eastern Leg to the East Midlands than I guess given the proposed trundle to Sheffield via Chesterfield now the journey time wouldn't be massively worse and you could still free up capacity on the Midland Main Line.

The problem with NPR for me is it will surely be massively expensive, if you want to get it though Bradford and I can see why you would want to get it through Bradford given it gets the dog end of train services compared to Leeds, that's going to be very expensive surely, then you have the not so slight issue of getting it through the Pennines.

 

[HST43257]

If you built the Eastern Leg to the East Midlands than I guess given the proposed trundle to Sheffield via Chesterfield now the journey time wouldn't be massively worse and you could still free up capacity on the Midland Main Line.

See I’m not sure how much capacity would actually be freed up. Leicester still needs 4tph probably.

 

[D365]

See I’m not sure how much capacity would actually be freed up. Leicester still needs 4tph probably.

Indeed. HS2 isn’t about taking services off the classic lines.

 

[37424]

See I’m not sure how much capacity would actually be freed up. Leicester still needs 4tph probably.

Maybe but building the Eastern leg to the East Midlands only is still likely to free up as much capacity for the Midland Main Line as building the whole eastern leg will do.

The biggest losers of not building the whole link would be West York's and the North East and less traffic off the East Coast Main Line, but some of that could be mitigated by building NPR instead. My own view is that if your going to build it to the East Midlands then you build the rest of it as well.

From a levelling up viewpoint its not going to look good from what the North West gets compared to the North East.

 

[camflyer]

If the eastern leg is not built in full then we will need to double Digswell Viaduct, which Grant Shapps will not want as it will cost him votes in his constituency. So I think he will be keen to build it. Plus the leveling up for the north will look pretty shabby and cost Johnson his majority. So I think it will happen.

Long term something will have to be done about the Digswell Viaduct even if HS2 is built in full as it will remain a bottle neck for regional and commuter services. Closing Welwyn North would be one solution but that would be even less popular in the constituency.

 

[HST43257]

Maybe but building the Eastern leg to the East Midlands only is still likely to free up as much capacity for the Midland Main Line as building the whole eastern leg will do.

The biggest losers of not building the whole link would be West York's and the North East and less traffic off the East Coast Main Line, but some of that could be mitigated by building NPR instead. My own view is that if your going to build it to the East Midlands then you build the rest of it as well.

From a levelling up viewpoint its not going to look good from what the North West gets compared to the North East.

ECML capacity relief is an issue.

I calculated that Euston to Leeds via NPR would be 1h40 with calls at Man Airport and Man Pic, which is half an hour faster in itself. This would also mean that there could be 1 less Leeds service, easing some congestion. The London to York/Newcastle Fast would have to stay, given that’d be about 10-15 mins quicker than NPR to York. But in time, NPR will need its own high frequencies across the Pennines, especially with the Bradford calls. The rest of the Eastern Leg does have to be built, though I don’t mind if it’s part of a slightly later phase. They must push forward NPR though, that Is the true levelling up.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Feb 2021 ==

Long term something will have to be done about the Digswell Viaduct even if HS2 is built in full as it will remain a bottle neck for regional and commuter services.

Completely agreed. We can’t go on with a full capacity route in the peak causing mess in the core and around the wider network. The mix of Commuter, Regional and Intercity has been, and will continue to be, a recipe for disaster.

Closing Welwyn North would be one solution but that would be even less popular in the constituency.

It could, but at the same time, that only saves 2-4 paths, which is very important, but it’s not the meaningful change that is needed in the long term.

 

[Ianno87]

ECML capacity relief is an issue.

I calculated that Euston to Leeds via NPR would be 1h40 with calls at Man Airport and Man Pic, which is half an hour faster in itself. This would also mean that there could be 1 less Leeds service, easing some congestion. The London to York/Newcastle Fast would have to stay, given that’d be about 10-15 mins quicker than NPR to York. But in time, NPR will need its own high frequencies across the Pennines, especially with the Bradford calls. The rest of the Eastern Leg does have to be built, though I don’t mind if it’s part of a slightly later phase. They must push forward NPR though, that Is the true levelling up.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Feb 2021 ==


Completely agreed. We can’t go on with a full capacity route in the peak causing mess in the core and around the wider network. The mix of Commuter, Regional and Intercity has been, and will continue to be, a recipe for disaster.


It could, but at the same time, that only saves 2-4 paths, which is very important, but it’s not the meaningful change that is needed in the long term.

But then full 4 tracking would only in itself create 2-4 Fast Line paths or so anyway.

 

[HST43257]

But then full 4 tracking would only in itself create 2-4 Fast Line paths or so anyway.

But it’d create a lot more slow line possibilities

 

[Ianno87]

But it’d create a lot more slow line possibilities

Would it? The only thing you could do would be to extend a couple of the current Welwyn terminating services (which you'd have to find somewhere to turn back, probably Letchworth)

And barely anybody would get these from Stevenage etc as they'd be so much slower.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm not sure that the Digswell viaduct is the limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

I'm not sure that the Digswell viaduct is the only limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

I’m certain that the Digswell Viaduct is not the only limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

 

[Hey 3]

Long term something will have to be done about the Digswell Viaduct even if HS2 is built in full as it will remain a bottle neck for regional and commuter services. Closing Welwyn North would be one solution but that would be even less popular in the constituency.

The Digswell Viaduct & Welwyn Tunnels/North issue can be solved by going via Hertford and upgrading that line

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Feb 2021 ==

I’m certain that the Digswell Viaduct is not the only limiting factor capacity wise on the ECML.

Plus Newark Flat Crossing, Werrington(to be solved this year), Welwyn Tunnels, The River Nene Viaduct

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Feb 2021 ==

The Digswell Viaduct & Welwyn Tunnels/North issue can be solved by going via Hertford and upgrading that line

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Feb 2021 ==


Plus Newark Flat Crossing, Werrington(to be solved this year), Welwyn Tunnels, The River Nene Viaduct

It can be solved that way, but it isn't a permanent solution

 

[Hadders]

The Digswell Viaduct & Welwyn Tunnels/North issue can be solved by going via Hertford and upgrading that line

What about the Hertford Loop stopping services?

 

[Peregrine 4903]

There is also the short 2 track section around Huntingdon on the ECML.

 

[waverley47]

This thread is currently discussing pathing issues on the ECML.