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Should Avanti services continue north from Manchester Piccadilly?

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Bletchleyite

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One post-HS2 proposal is that there will be a Euston-Manchester-Scotland service replacing the present TPE. The reason this is a reasonable idea is that the Birmingham-Scotland bit won't be useful after a HS2 service does the same thing faster in phase 2b. This would give Bolton a London service (unless it went via Parkside), albeit a slow one that people might use as far as Picc then change to HS2.
 
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takno

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I think Avanti West Coast services should continue north of Manchester Piccadilly post NPR and HS2 and be combined with the Transpennine Express Manchester Airport to Scotland service(dropping the Ringway stop bar 1tpd for route knowledge)
So my calling pattern
London Euston, Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Northampton, Rugby, Coventry, B'ham Intl, B'ham New St, Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Congleton(1tp2h), Macclesfield, Stockport, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Deansgate(1tp2h), Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District(1tp2h), Penrith North Lakes(1tp2h), Carlisle then alternate to Glasgow and Edinburgh
Glasgow Central portion
Motherwell, Glasgow Central
Edinburgh Waverley
Edinburgh Haymarket, Edinburgh Waverley
Diversion of 1tpd via Crewe, Airport, Bolton and Chorley
Calling pattern
Crewe, Wilmslow, Manchester Airport, East Didsbury, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Deansgate, Salford Crescent, Bolton, Chorley , Preston and then as above
Not that helpful if you are trying to get from Scotland to Manchester Airport.
 

Bletchleyite

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Not that helpful if you are trying to get from Scotland to Manchester Airport.

I was waiting for that.

If you live in Scotland you are not going to use the train to get to Manchester Airport. You will fly from Glasgow, Prestwick or Edinburgh, or connect, by air, from one of those to the much higher choice of flights from Heathrow or Gatwick.

This is solely a terminus of convenience for these trains; they only run there because there is nowhere else sensible to send them.
 

Rhydgaled

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I very much agree with this sentiment that the Ordsall Chord was a waste of money in the end. Again, just because one physically could create new connections, doesn't mean they necessarily should. Whilst in London there is crossrail and thameslink, there are plenty of connections that don't exist that people are perfectly happy making via the tube, and the same goes with Central/Queen Street in Glasgow, New Street and Moor Street in Birmingham, etc. There is no reason why I wouldn't change at Victoria for a tram to Piccadilly if I was heading to the airport, for example.

I am also of the belief that suburban services in particular should be as self-contained as possible for efficiency, and whilst Manchester and the north's rail services are still woefully inadequate, perhaps certain groups who are calling for genuine and robust improvements to existing services have somewhere down the line been conflated with over-ambitious campaigners getting ahead of themselves.
Couldn't the begining of your second paragraph answer the first sentence of the first? Others above have suggested that the Castlefield corridor worked well enough when it "predominantly had an intensive 'metro' service" - what if it was largely reserved for local trains again? Instead of having the Ordsall Chord worked exclusively by TPE, it could be used by 2tph from Stalybridge operated by Northern. By massively reducing the risk of importing delays from east of the Pennines, and removing Nova 1 and Nova 3 trains from Castlefield, that should be more reliable. Obviously there's the problem of what to do with the two TPEs you take off the Ordsall Chord, but dismissing the Chordsall Chord as a mistake because of how the DfT or the rail industry chose to use it is a bit of a stretch. How would the journey times on a Northern Victoria-Airport stopper compare to Metrolink from Victoria to Piccadilly/Airport? If it's significantly quicker than Metrolink it could make changing at Victoria less of an issue, allowing more services to be diverted to Victoria and away from Castlefield.

Again, the only fast inter-urban service I can think of that has to go through Castlefield is Liverpool-Sheffield - all the other end-door stock can either use the terminal platforms at Piccadilly or be routed through Victoria. Everything else through Castlefield could be a suburban or metro-style service.
 

Hey 3

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I was waiting for that.

If you live in Scotland you are not going to use the train to get to Manchester Airport. You will fly from Glasgow, Prestwick or Edinburgh, or connect, by air, from one of those to the much higher choice of flights from Heathrow or Gatwick.

This is solely a terminus of convenience for these trains; they only run there because there is nowhere else sensible to send them.
Correct, the Airport is the main dumping area of trains that run through Castlefield, as there is only one bay at Manchester Oxford Road and Manchester Piccadilly(P13/14) is unsuitable as a terminus.Some services run beyond to Crewe, others run via Stockport)
 

Starmill

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The chord did have other benefits in its business case than just removing trains from the main approach to Manchester Piccadilly, it would have enabled journeys like Rochdale to London significantly by providing through services to Manchester Piccadilly. You could easily open up those kinds of connections using commuter rolling stock, for example by connecting pairs of non-electrified destinations. Blackburn to Buxton via Todmorden is a good example. Of course, no benefits at all appear to have actually been realised, so the cost was all for...
 

southern442

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Couldn't the begining of your second paragraph answer the first sentence of the first? Others above have suggested that the Castlefield corridor worked well enough when it "predominantly had an intensive 'metro' service" - what if it was largely reserved for local trains again? Instead of having the Ordsall Chord worked exclusively by TPE, it could be used by 2tph from Stalybridge operated by Northern. By massively reducing the risk of importing delays from east of the Pennines, and removing Nova 1 and Nova 3 trains from Castlefield, that should be more reliable. Obviously there's the problem of what to do with the two TPEs you take off the Ordsall Chord, but dismissing the Chordsall Chord as a mistake because of how the DfT or the rail industry chose to use it is a bit of a stretch. How would the journey times on a Northern Victoria-Airport stopper compare to Metrolink from Victoria to Piccadilly/Airport? If it's significantly quicker than Metrolink it could make changing at Victoria less of an issue, allowing more services to be diverted to Victoria and away from Castlefield.
You make a very good point here. My first statement is made in the context of the present-day situation with the railways around Manchester. Switching the Castlefield corridor services back to all-metro operation (i.e. as limited to the confines of the Greater Manchester area as possible) would certainly improve the efficiency of an intense service through there. However this would be a radical change and one can't help but feel as though the current situation has drifted too far away from this, the expectation now being that a wide variety of cross-Manchester services are provided, and what can be done is limited by external factors to do with this. So with that context, if the choice was between the Ordsall Chord and platforms 15/16 at Manchester, I'd lean more towards the latter.

I have some pretty radical fantasy ideas about the whole situation though, which if ever implemented would more than make up for barring non-suburban services from the Castlefield corridor, but aside from my own personal dreams I cannot see enough of a radical new change being implemented that would allow the railways around Manchester to be transformed without any political pressure.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

The chord did have other benefits in its business case than just removing trains from the main approach to Manchester Piccadilly, it would have enabled journeys like Rochdale to London significantly by providing through services to Manchester Piccadilly. You could easily open up those kinds of connections using commuter rolling stock, for example by connecting pairs of non-electrified destinations. Blackburn to Buxton via Todmorden is a good example. Of course, no benefits at all appear to have actually been realised, so the cost was all for...
A little off-topic but there was a London-Rochdale service briefly in the early 2000's (or possibly late 90's?) but it ran via Warrington and Victoria.
 

takno

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I was waiting for that.

If you live in Scotland you are not going to use the train to get to Manchester Airport. You will fly from Glasgow, Prestwick or Edinburgh, or connect, by air, from one of those to the much higher choice of flights from Heathrow or Gatwick.

This is solely a terminus of convenience for these trains; they only run there because there is nowhere else sensible to send them.
Prestwick is an absolute nothing airport, and while Edinburgh and Glasgow have a decent range of flights, there's still a lot of destinations that you can do from Manchester and not there. Obviously you could fly down and connect in Heathrow, but it's not cheap or that convenient, and last time I did it I ended up dumped in a hotel outside Heathrow for one night of my 7 night trip.

I do know people who have used these trains to get to Manchester Airport. By contrast I don't know anybody who has ever used them to get to Stockport.
 

Peter0124

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We used to drive from Scotland to Manchester Airport to take flights there as it was cheaper (English school holidays were later than Scottish ones). The demand for the Airport services is definitely there, atleast when the pandemic is over anyway.
 

Bletchleyite

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We used to drive from Scotland to Manchester Airport to take flights there as it was cheaper (English school holidays were later than Scottish ones). The demand for the Airport services is definitely there, atleast when the pandemic is over anyway.

There may be demand, but I reckon the demand not covered by other services (i.e. from Lancashire and the Lakes) would be <10%, possibly even <5%. It's a terminus of convenience.
 

takno

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There may be demand, but I reckon the demand not covered by other services (i.e. from Lancashire and the Lakes) would be <10%, possibly even <5%. It's a terminus of convenience.
I'm not sure the trademark Bletchleyite technique of pulling numbers from thin air on the basis of no research or personal experience makes a particularly compelling argument, but no doubt you can keep it up all day.
 

Greybeard33

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Again, the only fast inter-urban service I can think of that has to go through Castlefield is Liverpool-Sheffield - all the other end-door stock can either use the terminal platforms at Piccadilly or be routed through Victoria. Everything else through Castlefield could be a suburban or metro-style service.
Regarding end door stock, the consultation document has this to say:
23. Finally, changes in rolling stock intended to improve performance, are expected over the next couple of years. Both Transport for Wales and East Midlands Railway are planning to replace trains with doors at the end of carriages with those that have doors along the carriage. This will help speed up passenger boarding and alighting, which can sometimes contribute to delay on very busy services.
But all three options have 2 or 3tph of TPE end door Nova trains passing through Castlefield, so that is unlikely to change. Speculative ideas for different service patterns have been discussed in
 

tbtc

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They’re not even permitted to stop at platform 13/14 at Piccadilly anymore due to dwell times of boarding and the platform curve requiring several dispatch staff

My understanding is that any diverted London - Glasgow services have only been allowed to stop at Stockport (which backs up what you say)
 
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Fokx

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My understanding is that any diverted London - Glasgow services have only been allowed to stop at Stockport (which backs up what you say)

It’s also the reason there are no crew changes at these platforms (it does sometimes happen unofficially but none are booked) and these take place instead at Victoria (TPE) or Oxford Road (Northern)
 
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Class 170101

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They’re not even permitted to stop at platform 13/14 at Piccadilly anymore due to dwell times of boarding and the platform curve requiring several dispatch staff

My understanding is that any diverted London - Glasgow services have only been allowed to stop at Stockport (which backs up what you say)

Regarding Platforms 13 and 14 at Manchester and Pendolinos. There was a Euston to Glasgow Central via Manchester during the summer of 2019 which called there in both directions with the line between Weaver Jn and Wigan NW blocked.

What has changed at Manchester since then which means Pendolinos aren't allowed to call here?
 

Fokx

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Regarding Platforms 13 and 14 at Manchester and Pendolinos. There was a Euston to Glasgow Central via Manchester during the summer of 2019 which called there in both directions with the line between Weaver Jn and Wigan NW blocked.

What has changed at Manchester since then which means Pendolinos aren't allowed to call here?

It’s only permitted by Network Rail during extreme disruption, similar to how Platform 1 of Oxford Road can only be used in extreme circumstances due to no step-free access.

The Manchester centre stations each have their own strange MOW and regulations aimed at trying to get as many services through the Castlefield corridor as quickly as possible and reducing dwell times.

New colour coded departure screens are due to be introduced later this year in the lounge to aid passenger flow, and we’ve already seen the removal of the old waiting rooms and introduction of the Red waiting zone.
 

The Planner

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They’re not even permitted to stop at platform 13/14 at Piccadilly anymore due to dwell times of boarding and the platform curve requiring several dispatch staff
That isnt true, and I doubt Avanti would agree to it as it would have to be proposed and agreed officially. There is an agreement not to do it because of the passenger flow issues, but it isnt banned.

They will be going through Castlefield over Easter as Warrington is blocked.
 

Watershed

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similar to how Platform 1 of Oxford Road can only be used in extreme circumstances due to no step-free access.
That's not what the TPRs say. It's to be avoided if possible, but sometimes you can't make things work without it.

The length of the platform is usually the bigger issue there.
 

adrock1976

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I've noticed that none of the proposals have the inclusion of extending a London service northwards to Bolton, even as a token service, despite the idea being there for some time. Is this just because it is up to Avanti to decide rather than the taskforce planners?

Is this a thinly veiled attempt to partially bring back "The Sussex Scot", as I can recall that from Birmingham it ran via Manchester and Bolton to Preston, then onwards to Glasgow?

When the Operation Princess concept introduced by Virgin Trains had collapsed in spectacular fashion, I can recall that they would no longer call at Oxford Road, as well as abandoning the Portsmouth workings among various things.

Also, I am of the view that the Castlefield Corridor should only be used by local all stations services and Regional Express services such as Liverpool - Sheffield and onwards to Hull/Cleethorpes and Blackpool - Manchester Airport or Stockport. No traditional Intercity trains to use the Castlefield Corridor, except passing through non-stop on Sundays whenever there are engineering works between Stafford or Crewe - Euxton Junction.

After all, Preston and the North West Region used to have direct trains to Harwich Parkeston Quay in Essex to connect with the ferry. Would Transport for London allow a North West Region - Harwich via Reading train to be routed via London Crossrail being as it connects with both the main lines on an east-west axis?
 
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jfollows

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Regarding Platforms 13 and 14 at Manchester and Pendolinos. There was a Euston to Glasgow Central via Manchester during the summer of 2019 which called there in both directions with the line between Weaver Jn and Wigan NW blocked.

What has changed at Manchester since then which means Pendolinos aren't allowed to call here?
In summer 2019 the xx.40 Euston-Manchester via Crewe and xx.55 Manchester-Euston via Crewe were extended to Glasgow via Wigan, and they therefore were booked to call at Manchester Piccadilly at their normal booked times. So they also called at Wilmslow and Stockport and Crewe. The other two services each hour between Manchester and London ran as normal from the main station at Piccadilly.

Otherwise, when trains are diverted via Manchester Piccadilly when they're not running in the path of a service which normally terminates at or starts from Piccadilly, I agree that they tend not to be booked for passenger calls at Piccadilly platforms 13/14, which is sensible, although they are often booked to call at Stockport, which also makes sense.
 

RAPC

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I was waiting for that.

If you live in Scotland you are not going to use the train to get to Manchester Airport. You will fly from Glasgow, Prestwick or Edinburgh, or connect, by air, from one of those to the much higher choice of flights from Heathrow or Gatwick.

This is solely a terminus of convenience for these trains; they only run there because there is nowhere else sensible to send them.

Actually there is a surprising amount of Scottish based passengers who fly from Manchester. I used to have a major holidays / airline company a a client who fly from various airports including MAN and Scottish airports. On routes that weren’t offered from the Scottish airports, you often saw double digit % of passengers on those flights from Scottish addresses.

That is not to say that any great proportion traveled down on the train, but you are off the mark about Scots not travelling to Manchester Airports for flights.
 

The Planner

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After all, Preston and the North West Region used to have direct trains to Harwich Parkeston Quay in Essex to connect with the ferry. Would Transport for London allow a North West Region - Harwich via Reading train to be routed via London Crossrail being as it connects with both the main lines on an east-west axis?
Considering that train routing doesn't exist, it is an odd straw man, and I doubt you would put a diesel train through there on a regular basis, as that is what it would be.
 

Ianno87

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I don't think they ever did, only the 158 operated Manchester Airport-Scotland services.

No the Bournemouth-Manchester-Scotland XC services didn't.

I *did* however once see an ex-Birmingham Voyager terminate at Oxford Road rather than Piccadilly; possibly engineering works related.
 

paul1609

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Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...inue-north-from-manchester-piccadilly.211756/

I think Avanti West Coast services should continue north of Manchester Piccadilly post NPR and HS2 and be combined with the Transpennine Express Manchester Airport to Scotland service(dropping the Ringway stop bar 1tpd for route knowledge)
So my calling pattern
London Euston, Watford Junction, Milton Keynes Central, Northampton, Rugby, Coventry, B'ham Intl, B'ham New St, Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Congleton(1tp2h), Macclesfield, Stockport, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Deansgate(1tp2h), Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District(1tp2h), Penrith North Lakes(1tp2h), Carlisle then alternate to Glasgow and Edinburgh
Glasgow Central portion
Motherwell, Glasgow Central
Edinburgh Waverley
Edinburgh Haymarket, Edinburgh Waverley
Diversion of 1tpd via Crewe, Airport, Bolton and Chorley
Calling pattern
Crewe, Wilmslow, Manchester Airport, East Didsbury, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Deansgate, Salford Crescent, Bolton, Chorley , Preston and then as above
Youd proberly get a better business case by converting the Pendolinos to bi mode and diverting them from Euston to Brighton via the West London Line.
 

LowLevel

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That's not what the TPRs say. It's to be avoided if possible, but sometimes you can't make things work without it.

The length of the platform is usually the bigger issue there.

1R50 (0523 Notts - Liverpool) in the morning was booked to use platform 1 for years until fairly recently.

It has always surprised me that they don't stop you and ask the driver first if you've anyone on board that will be stranded if they do put you into platform 1 as they do elsewhere with odd platforms like that. Certainly pre COVID we had a regular Stockport - Oxford Road wheelchair user.
 

Bletchleyite

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1R50 (0523 Notts - Liverpool) in the morning was booked to use platform 1 for years until fairly recently.

It has always surprised me that they don't stop you and ask the driver first if you've anyone on board that will be stranded if they do put you into platform 1 as they do elsewhere with odd platforms like that. Certainly pre COVID we had a regular Stockport - Oxford Road wheelchair user.

With irregular use that is certainly something worth looking at. At least if a Marston Vale service booked into platform 5 (with lift) at Bletchley goes into 6, it'll go back out of 6 as well so the passenger can be taken back to Fenny Stratford and provided with a taxi. Whereas the unit terminating there may not go somewhere else in service afterwards?

What would they do in that situation if the train terminates there? Operate in service to Deansgate or Picc to let them off? I guess in your case it'd be Warrington C and back, and a Delay Repay refund.
 

deltic

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Actually there is a surprising amount of Scottish based passengers who fly from Manchester. I used to have a major holidays / airline company a a client who fly from various airports including MAN and Scottish airports. On routes that weren’t offered from the Scottish airports, you often saw double digit % of passengers on those flights from Scottish addresses.

That is not to say that any great proportion traveled down on the train, but you are off the mark about Scots not travelling to Manchester Airports for flights.
According to CAA figures, in 2019, 1.3% (346,000 people) of Manchester Airport passengers had a Scottish origin or destination (excludes those actually flying between Scotland and Manchester)
 

jfollows

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1R50 (0523 Notts - Liverpool) in the morning was booked to use platform 1 for years until fairly recently.
A couple of years ago there was a morning working which used Platform 1 at Oxford Road (and which definitely wasn't 1R50) where it was overtaken by a following service - I was on it once because I wanted to go to Deansgate and the following service didn't stop there. The service I was on probably originated from Manchester Airport because I change there if I want to go to Deansgate rather than having to change at platform 14 at Manchester Piccadilly. However I suspect my use of Oxford Road platform 1 pre-dated the May 2018 timetable.

Otherwise, a long time ago, it was used in the morning and evening rush hour for a couple of Hazel Grove services which terminated at/started from Oxford Road, which were useful at a time the service between Oxford Road and Piccadilly was otherwise relatively infrequent.
 

RAPC

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According to CAA figures, in 2019, 1.3% (346,000 people) of Manchester Airport passengers had a Scottish origin or destination (excludes those actually flying between Scotland and Manchester)

That will make sense, in that the likes of KLM, BA, Lufthansa group etc will offer connections via EDI, GLA etc. For the holiday routes, there are less options, hence the higher % on those routes. Checking back, the average was 7.8% overall on my old client routes, but 13.6% when there was no Scottish option. (This was from 2017 data though)

Also, the CAA figures you have mentioned have to be taken in isolation. The sample size is relatively small and these were targeting arrivals on the main legacy carriers, rather than low-cost and holiday airlines. Even the charter figures with a smaller sample again, these weren't actually taken against the holiday companies. That sample was based on BA weekend flights (hence the tiny sample size of 2,024) that were running that summer using London City based aircraft, with these sold as flight only or via BA Holidays. At other airports, the sample sizes are even smaller again, as they were again tied in to single flights. i.e. Luton where a high percentage of flights are charter / holiday packages, yet only 181 were surveyed for charter vs 17,162 for scheduled.

That skews the figures based on the connection options above. If the sample was weighted across all terminals and all airlines, then it would change the composition.
 
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