New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[david1212]

This afternoon I walked into the local small town centre then on to the park. It is half term week.

Several sat on the seats taking a break from their exercise with refreshments from Costa etc. Some alone, couples some who I doubt were the same household and families.

The park was busier than a typical summer school holiday weekday pre 2020. Again several sat on the the benches.

I didn't see the regular plod, PCSO or any council / Covid marshall although apart from managing the ongoing ' temporary '
pedestrianisation of the main shopping street in the nearby large town I don't think we have the latter. Just maybe applying common sense and keeping away other than if summonsed to an incident. Last year spring and summer summer the regular plod / PCSO were often seen unlike pre 2020.

Public toilets in both the town and park were open. Notices say you are supposed to wear a mask. One person put on a mask to enter, left without washing their hands and took the mask off ...... which is the bigger health risk ?
a) not wearing a mask for a couple of minutes
b) handling a mask with dirty hands

As to benefits vs risks I would say the physical and mental health benefits massively outweighed the possibility of Covid infection. The loctivists ( is that the right term ? ) of course would be having heart attacks.

 

[chris11256]

But he then said he couldn't guarantee that he won't announce another lockdown in the future. I imagine he's rather pleased with himself for making us all think that he doesn't want more lockdowns, but actually what he has said really gives him free reign to do whatever he wants (which is likely to impose another lockdown).

Pretty much, he's making noises to please all sides while in reality saying absolutely nothing.

Although I did read somewhere that ministers won't actually get/review the vaccine data until Wednesday or so anyway. So nothing has been decided yet anyway.

 

[bramling]

Which is why it is so important that the criteria for lifting lockdown are clearly evidence based, and not based on arbitrary assumptions about timescales. Having heard Steve Baker this morning, and despite his attempts to navigate round the point, "arbitrary" was the best I could have described his target date as being.

The trouble with that is it’s essentially “follow the science” again, which is meaningless as many on here have articulated a highly convincing case.

A *political* decision is necessary, to decide that at some point it is going to be necessary to accept that infections, hospitalisations (and deaths) become an unfortunate fact of life, just like is the case for other viruses as well as daily activities as mundane as driving. Even Whitty has already hinted that this decision will at some point have to come.

Whether Boris is strong enough to actually make that decision is another matter, of course.

 

[brad465]

This afternoon I walked into the local small town centre then on to the park. It is half term week.

Several sat on the seats taking a break from their exercise with refreshments from Costa etc. Some alone, couples some who I doubt were the same household and families.

The park was busier than a typical summer school holiday weekday pre 2020. Again several sat on the the benches.

I didn't see the regular plod, PCSO or any council / Covid marshall although apart from managing the ongoing ' temporary '
pedestrianisation of the main shopping street in the nearby large town I don't think we have the latter. Just maybe applying common sense and keeping away other than if summonsed to an incident. Last year spring and summer summer the regular plod / PCSO were often seen unlike pre 2020.

Public toilets in both the town and park were open. Notices say you are supposed to wear a mask. One person put on a mask to enter, left without washing their hands and took the mask off ...... which is the bigger health risk ?
a) not wearing a mask for a couple of minutes
b) handling a mask with dirty hands

As to benefits vs risks I would say the physical and mental health benefits massively outweighed the possibility of Covid infection. The loctivists ( is that the right term ? ) of course would be having heart attacks.

The current forecast for this weekend puts it as the warmest this year so far, with it set to get to 16-17C in the SE, but above average everywhere. If this materialises I expect what you've described will be even greater.

The trouble with that is it’s essentially “follow the science” again, which is meaningless as many on here have articulated a highly convincing case.

A *political* decision is necessary, to decide that at some point it is going to be necessary to accept that infections, hospitalisations (and deaths) become an unfortunate fact of life, just like is the case for other viruses as well as daily activities as mundane as driving. Even Whitty has already hinted that this decision will at some point have to come.

Whether Boris is strong enough to actually make that decision is another matter, of course.

As you maybe aware Johnson usually makes decisions based on the following: either whatever gets him to tomorrow, regardless of how much further after that a decision will get him, or, as seen with the late impositions of lockdowns (and a Brexit deal), waits until all options are eliminated until only one is left, even if other previous options were better overall, simply because he is too weak to decide on what the best option is when many options involving critical thinking and analysis are available.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Pretty much, he's making noises to please all sides while in reality saying absolutely nothing.

Although I did read somewhere that ministers won't actually get/review the vaccine data until Wednesday or so anyway. So nothing has been decided yet anyway.

Whitty also said in answer to a question was it will be a couple of weeks before they will have useful data on vaccine efficacy. My take though is seasonal moderation will soon become dominant factor any how so what are they going to do then. That said I remain bullish he's playing cool to keep maximum pressure on keeping transmission now so when he rolls out the way out next week he will look the saviour.

 

[Class 33]

I see some of the media are already putting "Boris can't rule out fourth national lockdown" headline articles on their websites! Dear oh dear.

Whilst Boris did say today he can't rule out there won't be a fourth national lockdown, I can't see how an earth there could possibly be need or justification for yet another lockdown anytime this year and beyond! With all these millions of vaccination still continuing, there's just not going to be a big rise in hospital numbers and deaths anymore now. There's only one direction these stats are heading, and that's DOWN! So absolutely no need whatsoever for any more lockdowns after this one. This really has to be the very last one now.

 

[Ediswan]

I see some of the media are already putting "Boris can't rule out fourth national lockdown" headline articles on their websites! Dear oh dear.

It was a stitch-up question from the BBC. He could only give one answer. Of course he can't absolutely guarantee it will never happen again. He can't absolutely guarantee there will never be a nuclear war either.

 

[Richard Scott]

I see some of the media are already putting "Boris can't rule out fourth national lockdown" headline articles on their websites! Dear oh dear.

Whilst Boris did say today he can't rule out there won't be a fourth national lockdown, I can't see how an earth there could possibly be need or justification for yet another lockdown anytime this year and beyond! With all these millions of vaccination still continuing, there's just not going to be a big rise in hospital numbers and deaths anymore now. There's only one direction these stats are heading, and that's DOWN! So absolutely no need whatsoever for any more lockdowns after this one. This really has to be the very last one now.

Even if by some twist of fate there were to be an increase we just have to get on with life and that is that. The media, politicians and some people have become totally obsessed with this virus and that's the cause of the over the top paranoia and restrictions that comes with that.

 

[Jamiescott1]

I've complained to the council about the covid marshals in my town.
They always walk around in a group of three and on Saturday i saw that they were playing on the swings in the park

 

[Class 33]

I see the government scientists are being a bloody nuisance again today. Just checking the Sky News website. Government scientists want to keep social distancing for the forseeable future!

COVID-19: Government scientists want to keep social distancing measures in place for foreseeable future

Whitehall has been braced for a "killer argument" in the coming days over how long to keep the "one metre plus" rule.

news.sky.com

Government scientists want to keep social distancing measures in place for the foreseeable future in a move that would hit shops, pubs, cinemas and theatres, Sky News has learnt.

It comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson made clear he would not allow the coronavirus to let rip through younger generations, suggesting he has embraced the idea of restrictions for some time to come, because "no vaccination programme is 100% effective".

Whitehall has been braced for a "killer argument" in the coming days over how long to keep the "one metre plus" rule, with government scientists keen to maintain existing distancing requirements.

But some ministers are resisting as this issue is existential for many businesses; and they fear that additional ongoing restrictions on a near permanent basis could push some firms to bankruptcy.

The "one metre plus" approach, introduced last June, means members of the public can be one metre away from each other as long as other measures are put in place to limit the transmission of the virus.

If these are not possible then members of the public should be two metres away.

Possible mitigations include wearing a face covering, installing screens, making sure people face away from each other and providing extra handwashing facilities.

However, these restrictions make some businesses - particularly restaurants, bars and the leisure sector - harder to keep going since it means they can serve fewer customers.

A government source said: "This is the killer argument and no decision has been made. A lot rests on it for some businesses - the difference between being viable and not."

A second senior Whitehall source confirmed no decision had been made on the "one metre plus" rule.

Ministers are coming under huge pressure from Conservative MPs to scrap all legally-binding restrictions at the end of April.

However, Downing Street is being warned by scientists that new variants of the virus will return next winter, likely to necessitate new restrictions.

Even once all adults have been offered the vaccine - which could come by May and at the latest will come at the end of the summer - some of the population will have not received the jab, while some vaccines might not offer much protection to new variants.

Scientists also do not know how long vaccines will offer protection for.

The prime minister said on Monday that there were dangers letting the virus circulate too freely amongst younger, unvaccinated groups.

"If you have loads of people, even young people, getting the disease then a couple of things happen - first of all, a higher risk of new variants and mutations within the population where the disease is circulating," he said.

"Secondly, there is greater risk of the disease spreading into older groups again.

"Even though vaccines are effective and great, no vaccination programme is 100% effective.

"When you have a large volume, a lot of disease, inevitably a lot of people will suffer."

Mr Johnson's comments are likely to reassure those in Whitehall who wanted him to acknowledge that coronavirus was likely to be around for some time to come as part of decision making over the lifting of lockdown.

The prime minister also said he wanted his lockdown-lifting plan to be a "cautious but irreversible" approach.

Utter utter codswallop from these "government scientists". We've put up with this damaging social distancing nonsense for nearly a year now. We've got all these millions of vaccinations continuing. Hospital numbers and deaths are heading down sharply week on week. Very soon this VERY damaging restriction really needs to go once and for all. It is just unsustainable to continue any longer. Businesses need to get back to normal(that's if they've not already gone under), the people of this country need to get back to normal, the whole country needs to get back to normal. Enough of these ridiculous government scientists with their utter nonsense telling us how we should live our lives!

We were promised by Johnson and others in the cabinet that "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions."! This had better happen!

 

[DB]

Utter utter codswallop from these "government scientists". We've put up with this damaging social distancing nonsense for nearly a year now. We've got all these millions of vaccinations continuing. Hospital numbers and deaths are heading down sharply week on week. Very soon this VERY damaging restriction really needs to go once and for all. It is just unsustainable to continue any longer. Businesses need to get back to normal(that's if they've not already gone under), the people of this country need to get back to normal, the whole country needs to get back to normal. Enough of these ridiculous government scientists with their utter nonsense telling us how we should live our lives!

It just highlights the impressio that these people live in a bubble without any real conception of how most people live, or any empathy for the thousands of people whose livelihoods would be destroyed by these measures.

 

[david1212]

Even if by some twist of fate there were to be an increase we just have to get on with life and that is that. The media, politicians and some people have become totally obsessed with this virus and that's the cause of the over the top paranoia and restrictions that comes with that.

I see the government scientists are being a bloody nuisance again today. Just checking the Sky News website. Government scientists want to keep social distancing for the forseeable future!

COVID-19: Government scientists want to keep social distancing measures in place for foreseeable future

Whitehall has been braced for a "killer argument" in the coming days over how long to keep the "one metre plus" rule.

news.sky.com

Utter utter codswallop from these "government scientists". We've put up with this damaging social distancing nonsense for nearly a year now. We've got all these millions of vaccinations continuing. Hospital numbers and deaths are heading down sharply week on week. Very soon this VERY damaging restriction really needs to go once and for all. It is just unsustainable to continue any longer. Businesses need to get back to normal(that's if they've not already gone under), the people of this country need to get back to normal, the whole country needs to get back to normal. Enough of these ridiculous government scientists with their utter nonsense telling us how we should live our lives!

We were promised by Johnson and others in the cabinet that "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions."! This had better happen!

The real test is going to be what actually happens when the lid is loosened with schools then shops fully reopened together with some outdoor social mixing and maybe sports.

Positive cases will inevitably rise but with the vaccination program hospital admissions ought not to follow like last autumn but rise much less. While discussed before I still am surprised the decision has not been made to prioritise vaccination of all who work in schools during the half term week.

Once the first round vaccination program is completed there ought to an equilibrium of hospital admissions. At this point ideally everything returns to pre 2020 normal. If this can not be the long term ' new normal ##' has to be established. If say there are 2000 in hospital with Covid the capacity for this must be created over and above the current capacity as soon a possible so all services can be fully provided with no futher increase in the backlog. The ' with Covid ' excess death rate compared to pre 2020 sadly has to be accepted. If by a combination of further improvements in treatment or improved vaccinations for those who currently either can not be vaccinated or do not react to the vaccination the numbers can be reduced so much the better.

For the majority the equilibrium has to be maintained by a combination of refresher vaccines and herd immunity.

## Any new normal must prioritise education and the businesses that provide the majority of the corporate, individual and purchase tax ( VAT, duty etc ) income to to government.

 

[XAM2175]

Enough of these ridiculous government scientists with their utter nonsense telling us how we should live our lives!

We were promised by Johnson and others in the cabinet that "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions."! This had better happen!

"Government scientists" letting Sky News "learn" things sounds like more of the leak-it-and-see carry-on we've already had from "Whitehall officials" and "unnamed sources".

 

[brad465]

I see the government scientists are being a bloody nuisance again today. Just checking the Sky News website. Government scientists want to keep social distancing for the forseeable future!

COVID-19: Government scientists want to keep social distancing measures in place for foreseeable future

Whitehall has been braced for a "killer argument" in the coming days over how long to keep the "one metre plus" rule.

news.sky.com

Utter utter codswallop from these "government scientists". We've put up with this damaging social distancing nonsense for nearly a year now. We've got all these millions of vaccinations continuing. Hospital numbers and deaths are heading down sharply week on week. Very soon this VERY damaging restriction really needs to go once and for all. It is just unsustainable to continue any longer. Businesses need to get back to normal(that's if they've not already gone under), the people of this country need to get back to normal, the whole country needs to get back to normal. Enough of these ridiculous government scientists with their utter nonsense telling us how we should live our lives!

We were promised by Johnson and others in the cabinet that "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions."! This had better happen!

It just highlights the impressio that these people live in a bubble without any real conception of how most people live, or any empathy for the thousands of people whose livelihoods would be destroyed by these measures.

It wouldn't be unreasonable to think SAGE were actually robots, because I cannot otherwise see how it's possible for a human to go so long without showing any empathy or realisation of how humans act around each other.

 

[Class 33]

It just highlights the impressio that these people live in a bubble without any real conception of how most people live, or any empathy for the thousands of people whose livelihoods would be destroyed by these measures.

Absolutely.

Though the worrying thing is it appears Johnson is easily swayed by these so called "government scientists" and "experts" talking him round with their nonsense.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

However, Downing Street is being warned by scientists that new variants of the virus will return next winter, likely to necessitate new restrictions.

Even once all adults have been offered the vaccine - which could come by May and at the latest will come at the end of the summer - some of the population will have not received the jab, while some vaccines might not offer much protection to new variants.

But there will always be new variants.

There will always be some people who are not vaccinated for whatever reason.

There will always be people for the vaccine is ineffective- no vaccine works 100%.

If you follow the scientist's arguments then we will never ever lift restrictions.

 

[Richard Scott]

But there will always be new variants.

There will always be some people who are not vaccinated for whatever reason.

There will always be people for the vaccine is ineffective- no vaccine works 100%.

If you follow the scientist's arguments then we will never ever lift restrictions.

The real issues with some of these scientists and others is that they now have a platform for their 15 minutes of fame and they're reluctant to relinquish it. They are coming up with more and more unlikely scenarios in hope people will go along with it.

 

[kez19]

But there will always be new variants.

There will always be some people who are not vaccinated for whatever reason.

There will always be people for the vaccine is ineffective- no vaccine works 100%.

If you follow the scientist's arguments then we will never ever lift restrictions.

So we are to believe that new variants come about but we may need to lockdown in winter again?

If it’s not about a virus then what is it then? Control?

These scientists should well know the ins and outs of it than continuously ponder the negative or again I ask do they know something that we don’t or is there more to this?

It’s ironic we don’t hear them say positive things but would rather be negative no matter, no wonder people question it more.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2021 ==

The real issues with some of these scientists and others is that they now have a platform for their 15 minutes of fame and they're reluctant to relinquish it. They are coming up with more and more unlikely scenarios in hope people will go along with it.

Yet the media bring them out more, I hope everything backfires on everyone in this

 

[yorksrob]

If Johnson hasn't got the backbone to stand up to SAGE, he needs to go.

 

[kez19]

If Johnson hasn't got the backbone to stand up to SAGE, he needs to go.

I agree! - could we apply that to all home nations as I’m sure they are all following the same codswallop of SAGE

 

[DB]

If Johnson hasn't got the backbone to stand up to SAGE, he needs to go.

There also needs to be a rule that members of SAGE cannot talk direct to the media without approval - that might to some extent avoid the situation where as soon as Johnson doesn't do what they want we see a "government scientist" quoted in the media pushing their agenda.

 

[PHILIPE]

There also needs to be a rule that members of SAGE cannot talk direct to the media without approval - that might to some extent avoid the situation where as soon as Johnson doesn't do what they want we see a "government scientist" quoted in the media pushing their agenda.

SAGE should speak with one voice instead of all the seemingly ever growing number of "experts" coming out with their own opinions which do nothing but risk confusing Bojo and other politicians when it comes to decision making. Bojo is lost without them

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The real test is going to be what actually happens when the lid is loosened with schools then shops fully reopened together with some outdoor social mixing and maybe sports.

Positive cases will inevitably rise but with the vaccination program hospital admissions ought not to follow like last autumn but rise much less. While discussed before I still am surprised the decision has not been made to prioritise vaccination of all who work in schools during the half term week.

Im not so sure this is a seasonal virus and from April through to September it will be moderated as every flu / cold virus is every year. The real threat is when we go into Autumn.

My view is im prepared to run the risk of Autumn restrictions as long as we get that period of out lives back to reasonable normality. If the vaccine does as we expect its low risk if not so be it. Its farcical to believe that dragging out relaxation of restrictions is going to extinguish the virus.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree! - could we apply that to all home nations as I’m sure they are all following the same codswallop of SAGE

I would have no objection.

 

[bramling]

If Johnson hasn't got the backbone to stand up to SAGE, he needs to go.

Understatement of the century there!

He should have gone long ago, his handling of this affair has been utterly dire. It started sort of okay (many of the early mistakes were probably forgivable with the benefit of hindsight), but quickly fell apart into farce and has never recovered.

 

[takno]

I agree! - could we apply that to all home nations as I’m sure they are all following the same codswallop of SAGE

I think Sturgeon is following Shridhar, who is too much of a nutcase even for Sage. I think she should definitely be offered the choice of either pursuing her burgeoning media career, or advising the government and maybe giving the science thing a go for a change.

 

[bramling]

Im not so sure this is a seasonal virus and from April through to September it will be moderated as every flu / cold virus is every year. The real threat is when we go into Autumn.

My view is im prepared to run the risk of Autumn restrictions as long as we get that period of out lives back to reasonable normality. If the vaccine does as we expect its low risk if not so be it. Its farcical to believe that dragging out relaxation of restrictions is going to extinguish the virus.

I could just about tolerate lightweight restrictions over the winter, only on a time-bound basis with a specific objective in mind - for example whilst the NHS is remodelled to be able to cope with Covid as a "business as usual" virus. I'm not sure that includes autumn though.

If the vaccines turn out to be less successful in the medium term than hoped then unfortunately we just have to accept that some people are going to sadly pass away from this virus at times, part of the natural life-cycle. Naturally we should do everything possible to ensure the NHS is set up to do the best it can. Indeed it's likely to turn out to be the case that the billions spent on lockdown and measures like furlough would better have been spent equipping the NHS for this eventuality.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed it's likely to turn out to be the case that the billions spent on lockdown and measures like furlough would better have been spent equipping the NHS for this eventuality.

I strongly suspect that this will be found to be exactly the case.

 

[P Binnersley]

It was a stitch-up question from the BBC. He could only give one answer. Of course he can't absolutely guarantee it will never happen again. He can't absolutely guarantee there will never be a nuclear war either.

Saying undoing Lockdown was "irreversible" was just begging the question. The BBC just got in first.

So we are to believe that new variants come about but we may need to lockdown in winter again?

If it’s not about a virus then what is it then? Control?

These scientists should well know the ins and outs of it than continuously ponder the negative or again I ask do they know something that we don’t or is there more to this?

It’s ironic we don’t hear them say positive things but would rather be negative no matter, no wonder people question it more.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2021 ==




Yet the media bring them out more, I hope everything backfires on everyone in this

If we have to lock down next Winter, we will have to lock down every Winter.

Boris leaving will hopefully be the sign that thing are starting to improve. Any prospective new leader doesn't want to start by ordering another lockdown. They will want Boris to take as much of the bad news as possible and take over just as things start to improve.

 

[kez19]

I think Sturgeon is following Shridhar, who is too much of a nutcase even for Sage. I think she should definitely be offered the choice of either pursuing her burgeoning media career, or advising the government and maybe giving the science thing a go for a change.

Its the irony in all of this, Johnson is following Whitty etc, in Scotland its Devi for Sturgeon, who is it for Drakeford?, but yes agree!