Yes sorry Domh245. I was meant to say patients on mechanical ventilator beds are down on last April's peak. Of course not all of these are in intestive care. The figures are on gov.uk. It's very encouraging the UK's total hospital figures are not a lot more than last April's peak. As already pointed out today's cases are lowest since early October with today's deaths lowest since Dec 26. It's progress.
The whole point of rolling out vaccines for Covid is that should R go above 1 again, and at some point it certainly will, the severity of the illness is taken out of the equation with less hospitalisations and deaths, even if to achieve this we have to deploy boosters in future, in the same way we don't fantasise about the R number of season flu and colds.
Just asking if you have taken into account those that have already been infected in the under 50 age group - I did read a previous post from you that suggested even after all the over 50s have been offered the vaccine unmitigated transmission among the under 50 age cohorts could still result in difficulties re NHS capacity as you said that although the under 50s account for ~2% of deaths they account for a considerably higher (~25%) amount of admissions (was that just ICU or admissions in general) but I am just asking if you took not just seasonality but already pre existing natural immunity into that calculation which could be over 25% of the under 50s population. Also another thing you did not seem to take into account was if vaccines reduce transmission which evidence is pointing towards if this is the case will the unmitigated R be that high if the over 50s are a lot less likely to transmit it to the rest of the population.
No, I’m suggesting that if the restrictions are all lifted as requested, that would include the quarantine requirement.
Back to masks again, could understand if you'd mentioned social distancing but why masks? Also need to remember that quite a few people in that age range have also had the virus now so will slow down spread (maybe not by much but will still slow it).
Personally I am expecting masks in shops and on public transport to be the last thing to go, mainly because they are far less disruptive than the social distancing measures and so are easier to justify. They may go earlier in hospitality though.
This chart from one of the SAGE papers released this week which shows <20% of those hospitalised have been below 50 and as you say less than 2% suffer mortality. So with both seasonal and vaccine impact also moderating the transmission levels there's no way R rate is going up.
This is exactly the sort of statistic that's muddying the whole conversation around vaccination and lifting lockdown.
Treatment has come a long way in a year don’t forget. Recognition that steroids, anti arthritis drugs (monoclonal antibodies against IL-6) and other bits and pieces means patients are living longer - good - but not dying and freeing up bed space. This time round, don’t Roger a large proportion of cases were in those <45y/o. Likely to present with severe illness but not death, whilst the morality rate for those 60+ remains high. There’s many different reasons why the deaths and admissions don’t necessarily follow each other to a T, but there should be a reference to the other measure in the trend.
When schools open it WILL go up.
So could I - but their language is very absolute; an impression reinforced by the interview with Steve Baker on Today this morning.
Even if it does it won't matter. Sure the R rate for colds will go up to, are we going too get paranoid about that?
Well, the context of the discussion was hospital inpatients, so I’ve focussed on those rather than the general population.
Probably despite our great leader told us they were safe its been pretty evident they may not realise many hospitalisations from the age group but they act as a conduit for it to jump up the age groups. However, I suspect a fair few of them have had it by now so there is level of immunity building up in the teenagers. Then we have 1st dose vaccinations of the most vulnerable and don't forget over 6m of the 15m with 1st dose as well are in the health care groups as well as most will be below 60.
I do think zero restrictions is realistic by the summer, but I think the CRG timescale (all gone by the end of April) is rather optimistic. I could be wrong, but I'd expect all restrictions to be eased only once the majority have had their first dose and the vulnerable have had their second - so probably no sooner than late May or early June.
It does matter if anyone wants any sort of a life this year. Higher R = more/longer restrictions.
I certainly hope the roadmap extends out to defining the conditions required for full relaxation and also believe it would be appropriate to define what the contingency measures are if things deteriorate again. I don't want masks anymore than you do but if during the summer I don't have to wear one but may have to if there is local spike im happy with that. I also suspect people will exercise there own caution on public transport for example and may continue to wear them.
Only if the government overreacts to them. You might want to damp things down and stop things spreading *too* quickly until the over 50s are vaccinated, but past that point it stops mattering much.
www.bbc.co.uk
Johnson has revealed the easing of lockdown plans to be "cautious but irreversible", while also saying there are target dates in mind but easements can be subject to delays:
Coronavirus: Plan to exit lockdown 'cautious but irreversible', says Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson says the government will set out its plans on 22 February, which could include target dates.
Which is why it is so important that the criteria for lifting lockdown are clearly evidence based, and not based on arbitrary assumptions about timescales. Having heard Steve Baker this morning, and despite his attempts to navigate round the point, "arbitrary" was the best I could have described his target date as being.
