New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Bantamzen]

There is zero evidence that covid infectiousness is affected by temperature and/or humidity. Prevalence of the virus is linked to changes in human behaviour - particularly with the reopening of schools and universities.

Temperature and humidity are as you note not the only things that change in regions with notable seasons. However those changes in human behaviour you mention are linked to them.

In many European countries, the resurgence began in July and August - that is not winter-seasonal virus behaviour. I’m not the one claiming that when the sun comes out, covid will magically disappear - the high prevalence in hot countries shows sunlight is not weakening the virus to any great extent.

In many European countries the resurgence began as they relaxed very strict restrictions, basically they had simply kicked the increase that would have happened in early Spring into Summer.

 

[6862]

Well it won't matter since the Times is reporting that quasi lockdown will continue at least until autumn.

By which time we'll be close to another winter so what are the chances it will be extended for 'just a few more months'? The frog will be boiling quite nicely by then. Anyone that thinks this is going to end really needs to reconsider based on evidence from the last few weeks.

 

[Markdvdman]

By which time we'll be close to another winter so what are the chances it will be extended for 'just a few more months'? The frog will be boiling quite nicely by then. Anyone that thinks this is going to end really needs to reconsider based on evidence from the last few weeks.

Also, if they do a religious extension of lockdowns willy nilly, HOW is the furlough scheme going to be paid for? There is not an endless pot of money. It does not help with that crackpot Starmer in opposition! He would be happy with closing everything down. It is frightening really and Labour in Wales - wow Caution City - stats are WAY down should be moved into Tier 3 by the figures but NO - we cannot cope blah de blah.

 

[chris11256]

Given that some in Government think all adults will be vaccinated by early summer. What would the benefit be of keeping social distancing until autumn? It would still mean people couldn’t return to work, trains carrying air, theatres not able to open, drastic capacity limits on places that are allowed to open. Along with keeping the furlough scheme going for months.

With the reduction in transmission even after one dose, this doesn’t make sense.

 

[Bikeman78]

Indeed. Getting things started early and allowing people to spread themselves out would be the best option, however you can guarantee that Farrar and the lockdown brigade will compress it as much as possible. Typical of their boneheaded and entirely counterproductive thinking.

If holidays abroad are still banned then UK beaches will be packed, along with the roads and railways that lead to them. It happened last year. I suspect it will be worse this year given that many people will have been vaccinated.

 

[yorksrob]

If holidays abroad are still banned then UK beaches will be packed, along with the roads and railways that lead to them. It happened last year. I suspect it will be worse this year given that many people will have been vaccinated.

I personally don't think packed beackes are such an issue, however I can see there being a crunch on hotel and holiday home capacity.

 

[35B]

It was only a couple of days ago you were singing Jeremy Hunt's praises for demanding lockdown remains until cases drop to 1,000 regardless of the impact of vaccinations.

No, I was focusing on the need for the decision to be based on data, not arbitrary timeframes.

 

[duncanp]

Well it won't matter since the Times is reporting that quasi lockdown will continue at least until autumn.

I don't think the report in The Times means that the lockdown will continue in its current form until the Autumn.

If you read the article in more detail it implies that settings such as pubs and shops will reopen with restrictions similar to those that were in place in June and July last year.

As time goes by, and more people are vaccinated, these restrictions can be progressively relaxed, so that early September is when the last remaining restrictions will be removed.

I do hope that this morning's news from Australia, about yet another "snap lockdown" (this time in Melbourne) is a wake up call for Devi Sridhar, Nicola Sturgeon, Professor Pantsdown, SAGE scientists in general, and all the other locktvists who labour under the illusion that "Zero COVID" is a viable long term strategy.

Do we really want to live under a regime where whole cities and counties can be closed down at a moment's notice because of a handful of cases? Who is going to pay the costs of businesses that are going to have to throw away stock (eg. food and drink) that cannot now be used? Who would want to plan anything or visit a country where you could be locked down at a moment's notice for an indeterminate period. The lockdown in Melbourne may only be 5 days now, but what if it doesn't work and has to be extended, perhaps several times?

I personally think that the plan adopted in the UK is the only one that is sustainable in the long term. ie vaccinate enough people to build up a reasonable level of immunity, herd immunity if possible, and then open up the economy and deal with COVID-19 as if it were seasonal flu, for which we don't lock down. People who are particularly vulnerable should shield themselves, possibly on a part time basis, and rapid access to testing and results should be used to control outbreaks in the future.

Some people will be very ill, and some will sadly die, but we cannot labour under the illusion that every case of severe illness and death can be prevented.

 

[tommy2215]

I don't get what has changed that would mean the Government have to delay opening up. Back in mid January when they pledged significant normality by Easter we knew that the South Africa and Brazil variants were in the country. Despite the mutations, cases, hospitalisations and deaths are falling faster than we were told they would by the scientists. Vaccination program has gone pretty well. This should mean the plan for opening up is running to schedule. We cannot save every life and prevent every infection yet more and more Sage seem to be going for this.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that some in Government think all adults will be vaccinated by early summer. What would the benefit be of keeping social distancing until autumn? It would still mean people couldn’t return to work, trains carrying air, theatres not able to open, drastic capacity limits on places that are allowed to open. Along with keeping the furlough scheme going for months.

With the reduction in transmission even after one dose, this doesn’t make sense.

One can only imagine that they're worried about the transmission of new varients.

From a personal point of view, I can probably be placated so long as I can travel within the country and visit pubs. Also, in terms of social distancing, what does this mean - the rule of six ? That would ba doable, and the rule of anything would be better than the rule of 1.

I share concerns that any measure until autumn will effectively be until next spring. The pro-lockdown lobby should be forced to come clean about this so that people are aware of what they are proposing.

 

[joncombe]

As time goes by, and more people are vaccinated, these restrictions can be progressively relaxed, so that early September is when the last remaining restrictions will be removed.

I very much doubt it. By the time we get to September it will be "well we are coming into the winter months where the NHS is always under greater pressure so now is not the time to be relaxing restrictions". So masks and distancing will last until the Spring, when no doubt another excuse will be found as to why it needs to continue.

I believe the only way these restrictions will end is when the public and businesses ignore them en-masse which unfortunately still looks to be a long way away.

 

[DB]

There is zero evidence that covid infectiousness is affected by temperature and/or humidity. Prevalence of the virus is linked to changes in human behaviour - particularly with the reopening of schools and universities. In many European countries, the resurgence began in July and August - that is not winter-seasonal virus behaviour. I’m not the one claiming that when the sun comes out, covid will magically disappear - the high prevalence in hot countries shows sunlight is not weakening the virus to any great extent.

The same applies to flu and colds - nobody is claiming that the reason they are seasonal is because they are less infectious in the summer.

 

[6862]

I very much doubt it. By the time we get to September it will be "well we are coming into the winter months where the NHS is always under greater pressure so now is not the time to be relaxing restrictions". So masks and distancing will last until the Spring, when no doubt another excuse will be found as to why it needs to continue.

I believe the only way these restrictions will end is when the public and businesses ignore them en-masse which unfortunately still looks to be a long way away.

Unfortunately this looks very likely. I've been saying it for a while now - this is the new normal. While our leaders are blindly 'following the science', this miserable situation will continue indefinitely. And as our leaders are stubborn and can't be seen to back down from 'following the science', they won't change tactic. I really don't think we will see the public and businesses ignoring the restrictions en-masse, as the vast majority of the population are law abiding citizens, and going from comitting a small crime like talking to someone on the street to committing a major crime like visiting a family member in their home does not come naturally to the vast majority. The government will continue its chokehold on the nation indefinitely - they are winning and indeed it could be argued have won already.

''The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania The UK was at war with Eastasia Covid. Oceania Covid had always been at war with Eastasia The UK.'' -1984 (adapted)

 

[Bertie the bus]

I share concerns that any measure until autumn will effectively be until next spring. The pro-lockdown lobby should be forced to come clean about this so that people are aware of what they are proposing.

They can't come clean. Saying this is your life for the next x years would just prompt people to say no it isn't and reduce compliance. Saying this is your life for the next couple of months means people are more likely to accept it. Then to get your way you just constantly move the goal posts when the date approaches.

 

[kristiang85]

One can only imagine that they're worried about the transmission of new varients.

From a personal point of view, I can probably be placated so long as I can travel within the country and visit pubs. Also, in terms of social distancing, what does this mean - the rule of six ? That would ba doable, and the rule of anything would be better than the rule of 1.

I share concerns that any measure until autumn will effectively be until next spring. The pro-lockdown lobby should be forced to come clean about this so that people are aware of what they are proposing.

But we shouldnt need to be "placated" by anything - we need to be getting back go normal, fast. Any kind of restriction on our lives is extraordinary and should only put in place in times of grave need - a respiratory virus which already had a very low IFR and has a vaccine is not a time of grave need. Its not ebola, which liquifies your organs and kills half the people it comes into contact with.

The moment people say they will be happy with a rule of 6 or just staying in the UK is the time we accept we are happy to lose our freedoms on a whim. This simply isn't acceptable.

For example, my main friendship group in London is 8 people - each time we've met up in the more relaxed moments of the past year we've had to rotate who can't come. It's absolutely ridiculous living like this.

 

[Class 33]

Given that some in Government think all adults will be vaccinated by early summer. What would the benefit be of keeping social distancing until autumn? It would still mean people couldn’t return to work, trains carrying air, theatres not able to open, drastic capacity limits on places that are allowed to open. Along with keeping the furlough scheme going for months.

With the reduction in transmission even after one dose, this doesn’t make sense.

I've just had a brief look at some of the news websites. And to my annoyance, there are numerous articles on there saying something like "Social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions may remain until the Autumn at the earliest.". If this does end up happening, this really will be absolutely ridiculous and unnecessary beyond belief. We were told by Johnson and other ministers such things as "These vaccinations are our way out of all these restrictions.", "We can see the light at the end of the tunnel now. We are almost there!", "We are in the final phase of this pandemic now.", etc. So why in heaven's name will these ridiculously DAMAGING restrictions still have to remain until the Autumn at the earliest??

And if they do continue on into the Autumn, you can bet that we'll then be told "We've got the winter cold and flu season coming up. So therefore social distancing and face mask wearing must continue.". And then soon after that we'll be told "We've got January and February coming up, which is always a lot of pressure for the NHS. So therefore social distancing and face mask wearing must continue.". And we'll then be into March 2022, and 2 years of social distancing and all the damage and destruction it has done to thousands of business and millions of people in this country.

As you say, if this social distancing nonsense does continue for months and months yet, yes it would mean the likes of cinemas and theatres are not able to reopen(many of the smaller independent ones would probably end up closing for good), many thousands of pubs/restaurants/hotels unable to survive financially, the summer festivals and industry completely wiped out again for a second year in a row. To name just a few examples. And also many of the people on furlough unable to return to work, and the many people who are unemployed unable to find work(I'm one of them and it's damn near impossible to find work!). We can not let this happen!

Some people seem to think that all there is to social distancing is to just remain at least 2 metres away from others when passing people or queuing up, etc. There is a hell of a lot more to it than that! Social distancing is incredibly damaging to the economy and people of this country.

Being told that social distancing and face mask wearing must continue until at least the autumn is absolute madness. This country can not and should not put up with this nonsense for too much longer now. We're continuing to get millions upon millions of people vaccinated to prevent severe illness and death from Coronavirus. Therefore all these ridiculous and damaging restrictions really need to be completely scrapped by mid summer at the very latest. If they go on beyond that, it will be complete madness and completely unacceptable.

 

[yorksrob]

They can't come clean. Saying this is your life for the next x years would just prompt people to say no it isn't and reduce compliance. Saying this is your life for the next couple of months means people are more likely to accept it. Then to get your way you just constantly move the goal posts when the date approaches.

Really that's what our supine news media should be forcing from them. They seem to be less willing to ask searching questions from experts than they are from politicians.

But we shouldnt need to be "placated" by anything - we need to be getting back go normal, fast. Any kind of restriction on our lives is extraordinary and should only put in place in times of grave need - a respiratory virus which already had a very low IFR and has a vaccine is not a time of grave need. Its not ebola, which liquifies your organs and kills half the people it comes into contact with.

The moment people say they will be happy with a rule of 6 or just staying in the UK is the time we accept we are happy to lose our freedoms on a whim. This simply isn't acceptable.

For example, my main friendship group in London is 8 people - each time we've met up in the more relaxed moments of the past year we've had to rotate who can't come. It's absolutely ridiculous living like this.

I agree to an extent, however I also think that we also need to be realistic in that nothing is going to change immediately. I'm open to a transition away from lockdown, so long as it is a transition , and not a "new normal".

 

[Gadget88]

Isn’t the issue social distancing masks 2m rule no hugging will continue into 2022? Things look no better than last summer arguably worse despite a vaccine. We have mad saga people wanting masks forever.

Given the change of landscape I think we need a general election sooner. I plan to vote either Labour or SNP in 3 months at the Scottish election. I would consider independence to get away from Valance and Boris and Hancock. Leitch is nothing like as bad and Sturgeon is polling well.

 

[kristiang85]

Given the change of landscape I think we need a general election sooner. I plan to vote either Labour or SNP in 3 months at the Scottish election. I would consider independence to get away from Valance and Boris and Hancock. Leitch is nothing like as bad and Sturgeon is polling well.

If you're against restrictions, voting Labour or SNP only endorses them being harder and longer.

 

[yorkie]

If you're against restrictions, voting Labour or SNP only endorses them being harder and longer.

Absolutely!

Labour are very pro-lockdowns

For me, the real failing will be if we have a return to lockdown - the relaxation strategy needs to be based on creating circumstances that avoid that possibility.

You could use that as justification for extending the lockdown indefinitely; it is a fallacy and disingenuous to suggest that we should lock down for as long as necessary to avoid any possibility of the Government choosing to impose another lockdown.

How would you even define such a thing?!

This sort of nonsense really needs to stop.

 

[nlogax]

Leitch is nothing like as bad and Sturgeon is polling well.

Sturgeon isn't going to be your antidote to hardcore lockdown proponents in Scotland. Quite the opposite.

 

[yorkie]

There is zero evidence that covid infectiousness is affected by temperature and/or humidity. Prevalence of the virus is linked to changes in human behaviour - particularly with the reopening of schools and universities. In many European countries, the resurgence began in July and August - that is not winter-seasonal virus behaviour.

I refer you to my post shortly above yours, which addresses these points:

New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

Headlines from this weeks national flu&covid survey (data upto 5/2) is -case and positivity rates declined across all age groups and geographic areas with nothing really standing out. It certainly supports a national relaxation should be possible -outbreaks down from 1100 to 767 -negligible...

www.railforums.co.uk

I’m not the one claiming that when the sun comes out, covid will magically disappear

That's a strawman argument; no-one is actually claiming that at all. You just invented it.

the high prevalence in hot countries shows sunlight is not weakening the virus to any great extent.

Again I refer you to my earlier post.

 

[Bantamzen]

Unfortunately this looks very likely. I've been saying it for a while now - this is the new normal. While our leaders are blindly 'following the science', this miserable situation will continue indefinitely. And as our leaders are stubborn and can't be seen to back down from 'following the science', they won't change tactic. I really don't think we will see the public and businesses ignoring the restrictions en-masse, as the vast majority of the population are law abiding citizens, and going from comitting a small crime like talking to someone on the street to committing a major crime like visiting a family member in their home does not come naturally to the vast majority. The government will continue its chokehold on the nation indefinitely - they are winning and indeed it could be argued have won already.

''The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania The UK was at war with Eastasia Covid. Oceania Covid had always been at war with Eastasia The UK.'' -1984 (adapted)

You may have noticed that the term "new normal" isn't used anything like as widely as it was last Spring. It has quietly been dropped, probably because our glorious leaders have realised that the definition of "new normal" is subjective & certainly won't pay the bills.

As for ignoring restrictions, so far most people & businesses have complied. But a lot of people & businesses are racking up some serious financial woes, and there is nothing like the threat of going broke or out of business to motivate folk. And those signs are happening already, for example a number of cannabis farms have been found in closed businesses in West Yorkshire recently, a sign that people are already getting desperate.

 

[DustyBin]

I was going to post this on the Sweden thread but it’s not really about Sweden per say. This graph (stolen from another forum) shows the number of deaths per million people in Sweden and the UK throughout the pandemic. Ignore the actual numbers and look at the two lines. I’m less and less convinced that lockdowns work.

 

[Carlisle]

If you're against restrictions, voting Labour or SNP only endorses them being harder and longer.

Totally agree, & given their track record throughout the Pandemic, can’t understand how anyone could possibly think differently.
On hearing today’s news from Melbourne, simply rebuilding Hadrian’s Wall & pursuing Zero Covid isn’t a panacea either.

 

[duncanp]

Unfortunately this looks very likely. I've been saying it for a while now - this is the new normal. While our leaders are blindly 'following the science', this miserable situation will continue indefinitely. And as our leaders are stubborn and can't be seen to back down from 'following the science', they won't change tactic. I really don't think we will see the public and businesses ignoring the restrictions en-masse, as the vast majority of the population are law abiding citizens, and going from comitting a small crime like talking to someone on the street to committing a major crime like visiting a family member in their home does not come naturally to the vast majority. The government will continue its chokehold on the nation indefinitely - they are winning and indeed it could be argued have won already.

''The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania The UK was at war with Eastasia Covid. Oceania Covid had always been at war with Eastasia The UK.'' -1984 (adapted)

The problem with masks and distancing being the "new normal" is that the furlough scheme, which has enabled the restrictions to be put in place without causing massive unemployment, is completely unaffordable in the long term.

The cost of all the lockdown measures has been swept under the carpet so far, but there is going to come a point when these costs can be concealed no longer. I think that point will be the budget on March 3rd, where the measures that will be taken to stimulate economic growth will be based on the anticipated reopening of the economy laid out in the lockdown exit plan.

If you end the furlough scheme without easing the restrictions, then many businesses will go under, and unemployment will go through the roof, just like it did in the early 1980s, which resulted in riots in the spring and summer of 1981.

And if you don't ease the restrictions some time in the spring, many businesses will go under anyway, as they are just about hanging on in the hope that the lockdown exit plan will enable them to trade profitably.

So I still think that restrictions will ease progressively over the spring and summer, if only because it is better to do this when there is good weather, and respiratory viruses have a low prevalence. Some things, like track & trace for pubs, may be retained over a longer period, just until the government can see where the main sources of transmission of the virus are. Masks may well become optional after everyone has been vaccinated.

 

[yorkie]

Sturgeon isn't going to be your antidote to hardcore lockdown proponents in Scotland. Quite the opposite.

Indeed. She is as pro-lockdown as they get!

I was going to post this on the Sweden thread but it’s not really about Sweden per say. This graph (stolen from another forum) shows the number of deaths per million people in Sweden and the UK throughout the pandemic. Ignore the actual numbers and look at the two lines. I’m less and less convinced that lockdowns work.

Indeed. The real difference seems to come from the less onerous measures; the harsher the restrictions become, the more the returns diminish.

Many studies have looked at the possibility between correlation of harsher lockdown measures and greater effectiveness and were unable to find any.

Harsher restrictions can sometimes make a bigger short term difference but they tend to backfire when the restrictions are eased; we saw that in places like Czech Republic, Ireland and many others.

 

[MikeWM]

The same applies to flu and colds - nobody is claiming that the reason they are seasonal is because they are less infectious in the summer.

Indeed. People die from the flu in July - just a lot more do so in January.
On the question of whether climate is a far better indicator than government measures in determining the progress of the virus - take a look at these graphs of comparative hospitalisation outcomes in various states in the USA with similar climate - but very widely varying restrictions on their populations with respect to lockdowns, masks, which businesses can open, etc. etc. Couldn't be more obvious that climate is a major factor.





(graphs and maps that show states with similar climate have a similar course of the disease despite varying restrictions)

Source @ianmSC on twitter, a fantastic resource for graphs that show the utter futility of lockdowns, masks, etc.

 

[bramling]

I very much doubt it. By the time we get to September it will be "well we are coming into the winter months where the NHS is always under greater pressure so now is not the time to be relaxing restrictions". So masks and distancing will last until the Spring, when no doubt another excuse will be found as to why it needs to continue.

I believe the only way these restrictions will end is when the public and businesses ignore them en-masse which unfortunately still looks to be a long way away.

I think there’s still too many “terrified” types at the moment. I see there was a story on the news about how it might be better to wear *two* masks, which needless to say some people on social media seem to be latching on to.

I suppose it’s a good way to double the amount of virtue signalled!

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I've just had a brief look at some of the news websites. And to my annoyance, there are numerous articles on there saying something like "Social distancing and face mask wearing restrictions may remain until the Autumn at the earliest.". If this does end up happening, this really will be absolutely ridiculous and unnecessary beyond belief. We were told by Johnson and other ministers such things as "These vaccinations are our way out of all these restrictions.", "We can see the light at the end of the tunnel now. We are almost there!", "We are in the final phase of this pandemic now.", etc. So why in heaven's name will these ridiculously DAMAGING restrictions still have to remain until the Autumn at the earliest??

And if they do continue on into the Autumn, you can bet that we'll then be told "We've got the winter cold and flu season coming up. So therefore social distancing and face mask wearing must continue.". And then soon after that we'll be told "We've got January and February coming up, which is always a lot of pressure for the NHS. So therefore social distancing and face mask wearing must continue.". And we'll then be into March 2022, and 2 years of social distancing and all the damage and destruction it has done to thousands of business and millions of people in this country.

As you say, if this social distancing nonsense does continue for months and months yet, yes it would mean the likes of cinemas and theatres are not able to reopen(many of the smaller independent ones would probably end up closing for good), many thousands of pubs/restaurants/hotels unable to survive financially, the summer festivals and industry completely wiped out again for a second year in a row. To name just a few examples. And also many of the people on furlough unable to return to work, and the many people who are unemployed unable to find work(I'm one of them and it's damn near impossible to find work!). We can not let this happen!

Some people seem to think that all there is to social distancing is to just remain at least 2 metres away from others when passing people or queuing up, etc. There is a hell of a lot more to it than that! Social distancing is incredibly damaging to the economy and people of this country.

Being told that social distancing and face mask wearing must continue until at least the autumn is absolute madness. This country can not and should not put up with this nonsense for too much longer now. We're continuing to get millions upon millions of people vaccinated to prevent severe illness and death from Coronavirus. Therefore all these ridiculous and damaging restrictions really need to be completely scrapped by mid summer at the very latest. If they go on beyond that, it will be complete madness and completely unacceptable.

It does strike me that Sage and assorted other "experts" are going in to overdrive in fear that there prophecies of doom might be starting to be ignored by decisions makers.

Today we have:

Coronavirus restrictions should last until at least all adults have been vaccinated, a senior Public Health England official has warned.

Dr Susan Hopkins told Sky News some measures may have to stay in place beyond that, until more is known about COVID-19 transmission

she admitted it was "difficult to say" if rules this summer could be tighter than they were during the same period last year.

"One of the things we've learned is that when people go on holiday, perhaps they drop their guard a bit, perhaps they mingle a bit closer and they mingle in groups," Dr Hopkins said.

"That may be one of the areas in which spread of infection can occur.

"So I think we are going to have to have some measures in place until the whole population is vaccinated, at least all of the adult population.

"And even then I think we'll need to know more about transmission before we can release everything

COVID-19: Some restrictions should last until all adults have been vaccinated, senior health official says | UK News | Sky News



And...

SAGE experts yesterday suggested that some restrictions like the Rule of Six and face masks in public places might need to remain in place 'forever' because Covid will become endemic.

It came after SAGE expert Professor John Edmunds told ITV's Peston that most curbs on daily life — which may include the Rule of Six — are likely to be in force until the end of this year, while less restrictive curbs — like face mask wearing on public transport and indoors — could possibly be in place 'forever'.

Professor Edmunds also said Britain's borders would need to remain 'pretty tight' and people would need to be 'very cautious' when travelling abroad to avoid importing even more strains that could undermine the vaccine programme.

In a more positive sign, the SAGE scientist said he believes Britain will be 'more or less free' of lockdown measures by the end of this year.

But he warned some of the less-restrictive curbs, like social distancing or occasional mask-use, could be here 'forever'.

Sir Jeremy Farrar says there must be fewer than 10,000 coronavirus cases in the UK before Boris Johnson can start to lift brutal lockdown restrictions.

The ONS estimated there were 750,000 infections in England alone in the week to January 30, the latest date available.

Its measure, based on mass swabbing of thousands of Britons, is taken by scientists and ministers as the gold-standard for how many infections there actually are in different parts of the UK.

But in order to reach the levels demanded by Sir Farrar infections must drop 75 times from this level.

The figures show the prevalence of infection, or the estimated numbers in the UK.

The Department of Health publishes daily figures on infections but these represent the incidence, or the total number actually detected.

It is thought these only pick up around a third of infections because many cases are asymptomatic and some people don't get tested for fear of being forced to self-isolate.

Department of Health figures show there were 15,000 cases on January 30, suggesting there were actually 45,000 new cases on this day.

This means infections must drop to 600 a day in order to meet Sir Farrar's steep target.

This would mean the Department of Health announcing just 200 cases a day.

Social distancing and mask rules will have to last until at least AUTUMN | Daily Mail Online


And....

Epidemiologist John Edmunds, a member of the Sage committee, warned that reopening schools next month could send the so-called R-rate of the virus back above one, allowing cases to rise again.

He told ITV's Peston show: 'It looks as if it would be touch-and-go. So if we opened up schools I think that the reproduction number would get close to one and possibly exceed one.

'If we opened them completely, if we opened the secondary schools and the primary schools at the same time, I suspect we could be lucky to keep the reproduction number below one.'

Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London epidemiologist whose grim modelling spooked No10 into the first lockdown last March, said cases are falling faster than expected and there is 'some bandwidth' for opening schools. But he added that even by the summer, restrictions in the UK should only be back where they were in October.

He told Politico that Mr Johnson should be changing a single element, then waiting for 'a minimum three weeks' to see what impact it has. Despite calling for caution, Professor Ferguson hopes that Britain won't ever need another lockdown to fight Covid once the toughest measures are finally eased and hopes the UK may be 'basically back to normal' this time next year.

Claims social distancing could stay until the END of 2021 | Daily Mail Online



However on a slightly positive note, that indicates that the government may be starting to think of a route which doesn't blindly follow what these scientists and "experts" say...

Home Office minister Victoria Atkins told Sky News on Friday "Whilst the scientists, the medics are, completely understandably, concentrating on the clinical and medical repercussions of this pandemic, the prime minister has this very difficult balancing act of keeping the public with us - keeping us all united in wanting to stick to the rules.

"Hands, face, space and so on and the lockdown. But he also has to keep an eye on the economy."

COVID-19: Some restrictions should last until all adults have been vaccinated, senior health official says | UK News | Sky News