New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[35B]

The tide may now be starting to turn, dissent is clear within the rank & file of the Conservative party, which is far more important in BoJo's eyes than anything else. Its not often I cheer those blighters on, but yay the Tory Ranks!!

Irrespective of my opinion of what was said, two regular campaigners against Covid restrictions campaigning against Covid restrictions is "dog bites man" territory, not "man bites dog". It's like a left winger seeing the new Jerusalem when Jeremy Corbyn expresses a view - great for those who support to hear, but of limited significance in the greater scheme of things about what would actually make policy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Feb 2021 ==

And, if that is what he is prepared to say live on national radio, what more is he saying in private ? I notice everybody left out the 'unparliamentary language' he used to describe ministers.

Also worth noting that he is MP for Broxbourne, which had both a very high case rate at the peak, and includes the EN10 postcode, which was a SA variant hot spot.

Out of interest, how much influence does Sir Charles Walker actually have? I'm reasonably interested in current affairs, though with no connection to Broxbourne, and had never knowingly heard of him before Covid - which as he got a political knighthood, suggests a long but obscure parliamentary career.

 

[6862]

Out of interest, how much influence does Sir Charles Walker actually have? I'm reasonably interested in current affairs, though with no connection to Broxbourne, and had never knowingly heard of him before Covid - which as he got a political knighthood, suggests a long but obscure parliamentary career.

It's the 1922 Committee, of which he is vice-chair, that supposedly has some power/influence. I say supposedly because the 1922 Committee has historically been able to influence the government in the pre-March 2020 days of Parliamentary Democracy. In the Brave New World of authoritarian ruling by decree, it's not entirely clear how a committee can influence Our Glorious Leader's decisions.

 

[STINT47]

Cases are down by a large amount. The numbers in hospital and deaths are also down. Although these are not falling as quickly it's to be expected as there will be a few weeks between infection and death.

I also see that nearly 20% of the population has had the vacine so the top four priority groups are well on there way to having reasonable levels of protection.

I would hope that the press conference and coming announcements have positive news. I've lost a year of my life and had to put my plans and Hope's for the future on hold. I dont begrudge that but with things going in the right direction my willingness to make sacrifices for others is getting less and less

As for it's to early to say if you can take a holiday in the summer. Well I took two weeks in September last year before we even had a vaccine so they can do one if they think I'm going to sit at home come the nicer weather.

 

[Bantamzen]

Irrespective of my opinion of what was said, two regular campaigners against Covid restrictions campaigning against Covid restrictions is "dog bites man" territory, not "man bites dog". It's like a left winger seeing the new Jerusalem when Jeremy Corbyn expresses a view - great for those who support to hear, but of limited significance in the greater scheme of things about what would actually make policy.

You perhaps should not dismiss the influence of the 1922 committee on the Conservative party. We are not talking about some random back bencher but someone at the heart of Tory political shaping.

 

[35B]

It's the 1922 Committee, of which he is vice-chair, that supposedly has some power/influence. I say supposedly because the 1922 Committee has historically been able to influence the government in the pre-March 2020 days of Parliamentary Democracy. In the Brave New World of authoritarian ruling by decree, it's not entirely clear how a committee can influence Our Glorious Leader's decisions.

You perhaps should not dismiss the influence of the 1922 committee on the Conservative party. We are not talking about some random back bencher but someone at the heart of Tory political shaping.

The influence of the '22, which represents the Conservative back bench MPs, has varied over time; it was very high under May because of a particular combination of factors which have nothing to do with our alleged move towards "authoritarian" governance, while at other times it has been relatively obscure and unimportant.

That Walker has been elected as vice-chairman of the committee suggests a level of willingness from back benchers to trust him. That does not in itself say anything to me about his influence within government, which is the question I was actually interested in.

 

[py_megapixel]

According to the BBC's summaries of the briefing going on at the moment, we've apparently been promised the beginnings of some kind of exit plan will be announced "in the next two weeks".

If come Feb 24th we still have no idea what's coming next, I will be disappointed (but not necessarily surprised...)

 

[MikeWM]

The influence of the '22, which represents the Conservative back bench MPs, has varied over time; it was very high under May because of a particular combination of factors which have nothing to do with our alleged move towards "authoritarian" governance, while at other times it has been relatively obscure and unimportant.

They will move if they feel the leader of the party is endangering its electability. These 'men in grey suits' were instrumental in removing Thatcher, and she had a larger Commons majority at the time than Johnson has now.

That said, this is clearly an unusual situation, and it is unclear how much influence they realistically have at this point. In addition, as dismal as Johnson has been, I'm not at all convinced a replacement would be any better, and may well be significantly worse.

 

[6862]

Methinks someone hasn't been looking at the data, and that this question was specifically selected to distract from the fact that positive tests are dropping like a stone:

The first question from the public is from Cathy in Huddersfield, who asks when the infection rates of the highest priority groups will come down.

 

[VauxhallandI]

And, if that is what he is prepared to say live on national radio, what more is he saying in private ? I notice everybody left out the 'unparliamentary language' he used to describe ministers.

Also worth noting that he is MP for Broxbourne, which had both a very high case rate at the peak, and includes the EN10 postcode, which was a SA variant hot spot.

Must have been the letter I sent him...

 

[6862]

According to the BBC's summaries of the briefing going on at the moment, we've apparently been promised the beginnings of some kind of exit plan will be announced "in the next two weeks".

If come Feb 24th we still have no idea what's coming next, I will be disappointed (but not necessarily surprised...)

It will probably be a plan for announcing plans - something along the lines of 'we will progressively announce our plans for reopening from xyz date (at a guess some time in May)', so Boris can avoid actually giving any hint that this might end any time soon. I will be very surprised if he gives a single definite time point for any stages of the reopening.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Irrespective of my opinion of what was said, two regular campaigners against Covid restrictions campaigning against Covid restrictions is "dog bites man" territory, not "man bites dog". It's like a left winger seeing the new Jerusalem when Jeremy Corbyn expresses a view - great for those who support to hear, but of limited significance in the greater scheme of things about what would actually make policy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Feb 2021 ==


Out of interest, how much influence does Sir Charles Walker actually have? I'm reasonably interested in current affairs, though with no connection to Broxbourne, and had never knowingly heard of him before Covid - which as he got a political knighthood, suggests a long but obscure parliamentary career.

We've been stuck with him here since politics was invented

 

[py_megapixel]

It will probably be a plan for announcing plans - something along the lines of 'we will progressively announce our plans for reopening from xyz date (at a guess some time in May)', so Boris can avoid actually giving any hint that this might end any time soon. I will be very surprised if he gives a single definite time point for any stages of the reopening.

Sounds about right

 

[duncanp]

It will probably be a plan for announcing plans - something along the lines of 'we will progressively announce our plans for reopening from xyz date (at a guess some time in May)', so Boris can avoid actually giving any hint that this might end any time soon. I will be very surprised if he gives a single definite time point for any stages of the reopening.

Whilst he may not give a definite date for the reopening of various sectors, I think it likely that he will give some idea, so that businesses can plan.

So he may say something like ".....non-essential shops will reopen around the Easter holidays, we will confirm the date by the middle of March, and pubs will open in the first half of May, we will give them at least two weeks notice of the actual date....."

It was encouraging to note that Boris Johnson anticipates vaccinating everyone in priority groups 1 - 9 by the end of April.

Given this, there really is no reason to delay the opening of non essential shops beyond the end of March, and no reason to delay opening pubs beyond the bank holiday at the beginning of May.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From presser BoJo expects to get cohorts 1-9 done by end of April.

Vallance the peak is coming down but (don't get too enthusiastic Patrick) numbers still too high

Then uses ONS survey which is unbiased allegedly (oh don't have a good news story must find something negative) to say its not so good but acknowledges hospitals cases down and deaths reducing. Numbers coming down quite well but still got a long way to go.

Then questions - are infection rates coming down - good q we are looking at this carefully but can't see much change yet says BoJo (ie must keep the lockdown on). Vallance says no real data yet will need a few more weeks yet

Will say more on Monday about the data then its the week of 22nd i will set out roadmap (so not 22nd by the sounds of it).

Vallance not too concerned about Bristol variant but we need to keep an eye on it. We must open up slowly the virus isn't interest in dates business want a cautious approach not one we have to reverse.

 

[Class 33]

Johnson in that press conference also mentioned about "The long hard journey back to normality.". This is somewhat different to what he said as recently as last month which was April 5th Easter being back to near normal. A "long hard journey back to normality" sounds like it could be several months of lockdown and restrictions easing? Maybe we shouldn't read too much into that comment.

Providing the hospital numbers and deaths continues to fall, then there is no reason really why the country can't be back to normal by June at the latest surely, including the dreaded social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense finally scrapped. And that at least some of the festival and events industry this year can be saved.

I assume the lockdown and restrictions easing will probably be every 3 weeks. Every 4 weeks would be too slow. Whilst Johnson will probably think every 2 weeks is too fast. So let's assume it will be every 3 weeks. First easing on 8th March, then easing again on 29th March, 19th April, 10th May, 31st May. And then if the easing is still continuing beyond that, then 21st June and 12th July would probably be the next easing dates. Hopefully all restrictions would be scrapped by 31st May, which would tie in with the CRG are saying in that all restrictions need to be lifted by then.

We'll see. This "road map" that Johnson announced on 22nd February had better be good!

 

[Bertie the bus]

From presser BoJo expects to get cohorts 1-9 done by end of April.

Vallance the peak is coming down but (don't get too enthusiastic Patrick) numbers still too high

Then uses ONS survey which is unbiased allegedly (oh don't have a good news story must find something negative) to say its not so good but acknowledges hospitals cases down and deaths reducing. Numbers coming down quite well but still got a long way to go.

Then questions - are infection rates coming down - good q we are looking at this carefully but can't see much change yet says BoJo (ie must keep the lockdown on). Vallance says no real data yet will need a few more weeks yet

Will say more on Monday about the data then its the week of 22nd i will set out roadmap (so not 22nd by the sounds of it).

Vallance not too concerned about Bristol variant but we need to keep an eye on it. We must open up slowly the virus isn't interest in dates business want a cautious approach not one we have to reverse.

Additionally, on whether vaccines are having the desired effect Vallance said he wants to wait until he sees more data. He wants to be absolutely sure before coming to a conclusion. Strangely that wasn’t his approach when they rushed out the “news” the Kent variant might result in more severe illness based on pretty much nothing.

 

[duncanp]

Johnson in that press conference also mentioned about "The long hard journey back to normality.". This is somewhat different to what he said as recently as last month which was April 5th Easter being back to near normal. A "long hard journey back to normality" sounds like it could be several months of lockdown and restrictions easing? Maybe we shouldn't read too much into that comment.

Providing the hospital numbers and deaths continues to fall, then there is no reason really why the country can't be back to normal by June at the latest surely, including the dreaded social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense finally scrapped. And that at least some of the festival and events industry this year can be saved.

I assume the lockdown and restrictions easing will probably be every 3 weeks. Every 4 weeks would be too slow. Whilst Johnson will probably think every 2 weeks is too fast. So let's assume it will be every 3 weeks. First easing on 8th March, then easing again on 29th March, 19th April, 10th May, 31st May. And then if the easing is still continuing beyond that, then 21st June and 12th July would probably be the next easing dates. Hopefully all restrictions would be scrapped by 31st May, which would tie in with the CRG are saying in that all restrictions need to be lifted by then.

We'll see. This "road map" that Johnson announced on 22nd February had better be good!

I don't think you should read too much into the "...long hard road to normality..." comment.

From what I have heard, there is going to be a three stage easing, with schools in March, non essential shops in April, and pubs in May. You may find that some of the restrictions around household mixing are relaxed on these dates as well.

After pubs open, I would expect us to be in the position we were in during July last year, with everything open, but some restrictions on gatherings and mixings.

These restrictions on gathering and mixings would be relaxed progressively over the summer.

But this is all speculation, so we shall have to wait and see what Boris announces.

Incidentally, don't read The Telegraph tonight.

They have a big headline saying:-

Lockdown to last until late May if UK follows Israel's new rules​

The Government has promised an exit strategy by Feb 22 – this is what it would look like if the UK takes the Israeli lead

Whoever wrote that should have his private parts nailed to a garden fence.

We do NOT have to use the same criteria for lifting the lockdown as Israel, NOR is there any suggestion that we are going to do so.

So just SHUT UP will you.

No wonder there are increased levels anxiety when the papers spout rubbish like this.

 

[35B]

They will move if they feel the leader of the party is endangering its electability. These 'men in grey suits' were instrumental in removing Thatcher, and she had a larger Commons majority at the time than Johnson has now.

That said, this is clearly an unusual situation, and it is unclear how much influence they realistically have at this point. In addition, as dismal as Johnson has been, I'm not at all convinced a replacement would be any better, and may well be significantly worse.

Indeed. The role of the 1922 was limited in 1990 and, where it was much more instrumental in 2019, it took a considerable time before they were in a serious position to topple May. I come back to my observation that a politician expressing support for a policy that his hearer supports is not, in itself, an indication of any kind of political swing.

I don't think you should read too much into the "...long hard road to normality..." comment.

From what I have heard, there is going to be a three stage easing, with schools in March, non essential shops in April, and pubs in May. You may find that some of the restrictions around household mixing are relaxed on these dates as well.

After pubs open, I would expect us to be in the position we were in during July last year, with everything open, but some restrictions on gatherings and mixings.

These restrictions on gathering and mixings would be relaxed progressively over the summer.

But this is all speculation, so we shall have to wait and see what Boris announces.

Incidentally, don't read The Telegraph tonight.

They have a big headline saying:-



Whoever wrote that should have his private parts nailed to a garden fence.

We do NOT have to use the same criteria for lifting the lockdown as Israel, NOR is there any suggestion that we are going to do so.

So just SHUT UP will you.

No wonder there are increased levels anxiety when the papers spout rubbish like this.

I can scarcely believe I'd defend the Telegraph, but if you are looking for an indication of how somewhere else deals with a policy issue, a "what if" comparison can be quite educative - even if not what you want to hear. And, not having read more than you've quoted, the timetable you've set out is entirely compatible with the Telegraph headline.

 

[yorksrob]

Incidentally, don't read The Telegraph tonight.

They have a big headline saying:-



Whoever wrote that should have his private parts nailed to a garden fence.

We do NOT have to use the same criteria for lifting the lockdown as Israel, NOR is there any suggestion that we are going to do so.

So just SHUT UP will you.

No wonder there are increased levels anxiety when the papers spout rubbish like this.

The Government can decide to follow Israel, North Korea or the Forest Moon of Endor if it so wishes, I won't be staying locked down until May.

 

[Class 33]

The "Stay at home" message really needs to go on 8th March. They can't expect us to stay at home apart from shopping/going to work(for those that have a job!)/daily exercise for potentially nearly 3 months!

 

[duncanp]

Indeed. The role of the 1922 was limited in 1990 and, where it was much more instrumental in 2019, it took a considerable time before they were in a serious position to topple May. I come back to my observation that a politician expressing support for a policy that his hearer supports is not, in itself, an indication of any kind of political swing.

I can scarcely believe I'd defend the Telegraph, but if you are looking for an indication of how somewhere else deals with a policy issue, a "what if" comparison can be quite educative - even if not what you want to hear. And, not having read more than you've quoted, the timetable you've set out is entirely compatible with the Telegraph headline.

Point taken.

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "Lockdown to last until late May".

If you take it to mean the lockdown will last in it's current form until the end of May, with no easing of restrictions, I would say "..not a cat in hell's chance"

But if you take it to mean that all restrictions will be lifted by the end of May, I would say that is possible, but more likely that some restrictions will remain for a few months longer until everyone has been vaccinated.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Just seen this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1359570470589386752

A Cabinet office spox told PA: "Playgrounds are primarily for use by children who do not have access to private outdoor space, and while parents, guardians or carers are allowed to take children to a playground for exercise, they must not socialise with other people while there."

It's going down like a lead balloon in the replies.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There's a barnstorming interview on The World at One with MP Charles Walker basically telling the Government it needs to get a grip and start paving the way for lockdown to end at about 28:45:

World at One - 10/02/2021 - BBC Sounds

Forty-five minutes of news, analysis and comment, with Sarah Montague

www.bbc.co.uk

The epidemiologist interviewed before is also worth listening to, in that he concurs with the views of most on here that eradication of the virus is impossible.

Watch him on Ch4 news he was even more animated about the situation. Good to see someone speaking out but I fear he is a lone voice and will be seen as a maverick after todays outbursts.

 

[MikeWM]

We do NOT have to use the same criteria for lifting the lockdown as Israel, NOR is there any suggestion that we are going to do so.

So just SHUT UP will you.

No wonder there are increased levels anxiety when the papers spout rubbish like this.

If today's Guardian is to be believed - which is a stretch of course - then the lockdown lifting in Israel involves people downloading an 'official app' that will show their vaccination status and/or a negative test in the last 72 hours, and only people with such approval from their phone app will be able to use 'hotels, gyms and other leisure facilities'.

Hardly a road we should be emulating.

Edit : that can be found near the bottom of this, if you've the stomach to trawl though it.

 

[yorksrob]

Watch him on Ch4 news he was even more animated about the situation. Good to see someone speaking out but I fear he is a lone voice and will be seen as a maverick after todays outbursts.

Thanks, I shall give it a look.

 

[py_megapixel]

If today's Guardian is to be believed - which is a stretch of course - then the lockdown lifting in Israel involves people downloading an 'official app' that will show their vaccination status and/or a negative test in the last 72 hours, and only people with such approval from their phone app will be able to use 'hotels, gyms and other leisure facilities'.

Will Israel be handing out mobile phones for free to anyone who doesn't already have one?
I highly doubt it.

 

[DB]

If today's Guardian is to be believed - which is a stretch of course - then the lockdown lifting in Israel involves people downloading an 'official app' that will show their vaccination status and/or a negative test in the last 72 hours, and only people with such approval from their phone app will be able to use 'hotels, gyms and other leisure facilities'.

Hardly a road we should be emulating.

Edit : that can be found near the bottom of this, if you've the stomach to trawl though it.

We should be safe from that - our government has shown that they cannot get a system involving apps to work sufficiently well to be of any demonstrable use.

 

[Domh245]

Methinks someone hasn't been looking at the data, and that this question was specifically selected to distract from the fact that positive tests are dropping like a stone:

Positive test numbers are dropping encouragingly, but rates do seem to be remaining stubbornly high amongst the older age groups (at least in England)

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[NorthOxonian]

Just seen this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1359570470589386752


It's going down like a lead balloon in the replies.

Steve Baker has replied: https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1359576865757949952

Fury from Steve Baker:

This unabashed vehemence in the expression of state power beyond the limits of the law would be comical if it were not for real. As gvt succeeds in vaccinating vulnerable, incidents like this only underscore the need to reclaim our lives once and for all

 

[duncanp]

If today's Guardian is to be believed - which is a stretch of course - then the lockdown lifting in Israel involves people downloading an 'official app' that will show their vaccination status and/or a negative test in the last 72 hours, and only people with such approval from their phone app will be able to use 'hotels, gyms and other leisure facilities'.

Hardly a road we should be emulating.

Edit : that can be found near the bottom of this, if you've the stomach to trawl though it.

There is very little chance such a policy would be implemented here.

For one thing, it discriminates against people who don't have a smartphone, who often tend to be the poorer and most disadvantaged members of society.

It also discriminates against younger people who have not been vaccinated.

Do you really expect young people to be tested every 72 hours in order that they can use leisure facilities and bars, whereas us oldies who have been vaccinated don't have to bother with that nonsense.

And in any case, I am sure someone will work out a way of fiddling things so it make it look as though you have been vaccinated or tested.