Good point about Kettering/ Wellingborough. There is almost certainly some element of suppressed demand from regularly having to board 4/5 car Meridians already full from further north.
It's rare to see a 4 car Meridian on its own off peak, let alone at peak. Usually they're paired with a 5 car to make a 9 car set.
Getting seats from Wellingborough or Kettering in the peak isn't usually a problem - getting them on the return because of the Luton and Bedford stops was always more of a problem.
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They won't though.Though if some London companies downsize, that enables vacant space to be taken by new companies gaining London office space for the first time, who previously may have been priced out.
The "glitter" of having London office space has been well and truly killed by Covid. The only way any company will tempt employees to spend 5 days a week commuting for 60 minutes on a train in future will be with a hefty pay premium - which won't happen.
If my employers are a guide, I reckon you're going to see a 20-30% drop in commuting post Covid. The rail industry is going to have to adapt - and that will mean cost reduction.
