Chiltern timetable - what if it wasn't about Brum-London?

[The Planner]

A major issue with the chitern line is pathing. Due to the nature of the route you also need your fast services leaving close together at the beginning of the 30 minutes to allow stopping services to serve more local stations. An example timetable I would give would be:

Xx:00 Birmingham: Haddenham & Thame Pway, Biscester North, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Warwick Pway, Solihull, Moor street, Snow Hill

Xx:05 Oxford: Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Pway, Biscester Village, Oxford Pway, Oxford.

Xx:08 Gerrards Cross: Wembley stadium, Northholt park, South Ruislip, West Ruislip, Denham, Gerrards Cross

Xx:12 Ayelsbury Vale Pway (via Harrow-on-the-hill) normal stopping pattern

Xx:15 Ayelsbury (via HW): West Ruislip, Gerrards Cross, Seer Green and Jordans, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Saunderton, Princes Risborough, Ayelsbury.

Xx:25 Stratford upon avon: High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Pway, Biscester North, Kings Sutton, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Warrick, Warrick Pway, Hatton, Claverdon, Bearly, Wilmcote, stratford upon avon pway, stratford upon avon.

Xx:30 Oxford: High Wycombe, Haddenham & Thame Pway, Biscester Village, Oxford Pway, Oxford.

Xx:40 Birmingham: High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham and Thame Pway, Biscester North, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Warrick, Warrick Pway, Lapworth, Dorridge, Solihull, moor street, snow hill (extend to kidderminster at peak)

Xx:43 Ayelsbury Vale Pway (via Harrow-on-the-hill) normal stopping pattern

Xx:47 High Wycombe: Wembley stadium, Sudbury Hill Harrow, Northolt Park, South Ruislip, West Ruislip, Denham, Denham Golf club, Gerrards Cross, Seer Green and Jordans, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe.

In addition to this the Princes Risborough - Ayelsbury branch would run hourly serving all stations.

AND

Oxford to stratford upon avon service calling all stations (replaces sporadic gwr service and leamington stratford shuttle)

This timetable would provide (from London)

Ayelsbury: 3tph
High Wycombe: 6tph
Oxford: 2tph
Banbury: 3tph
Birmingham: 2tph
Stratford: 1tph
Kidderminster: Peak only.

Various station calling patterns could be ammended in the peaks for skip stop service to allow better timetabling or resilience.

This has been easily acheived by:
Binning all banbury and risborough terminators, extend them somewhere useful or free up a path. This timetable would still permit another fast oxford or birmingham service to run if you path it correctly. Spacing is about as good as you get with the 2 track nature of the line.

With improved signalling pathing would be made easier.

I think i recall that headway out of Marylebone is about 2-3 minutes so have factored this in. Trains are timetabled to almost catch up with each other but not quite to maximise capacity.

Headway is 3 minutes all the way from Marylebone to Princes Risborough. You are not going to get much better than that even with ETCS. Some of those proposed gaps look quite odd. Why go at xx.05 if the first train isn't stopping until Haddenham? Also, why not try to keep the Oxford and Birmingham services 30 mins apart? Where are the freight slots?

 

[Bald Rick]

Also, can you get 2 an hour each way Risboro’ to Aylesbury?

 

[30907]

Also, can you get 2 an hour each way Risboro’ to Aylesbury?

No, you can't - which is why running through from High Wycombe is preferable as a mitigation.

Where are the freight slots?

What long-term freight is there? I can only think of the rubbish.

 

[HST43257]

Also, can you get 2 an hour each way Risboro’ to Aylesbury?

12 minutes nonstop
14 minutes calling at Monks Risborough
16 minutes calling at Monks Risborough and Little Kimble

Incredibly tight but JUST possible I think, but only if both go through, since a 1 minute PR turnaround isn’t happening.

xx00 fast leaving PR (12 mins)
xx13 slow leaving A (16 mins)
xx30 slow leaving PR (16 mins)
xx47 fast leaving A (12 mins)

 

[Ianno87]

Also, can you get 2 an hour each way Risboro’ to Aylesbury?

Running time (with stops) is 15.5 minutes Up, 16 minutes Down, so no.

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12 minutes nonstop
14 minutes calling at Monks Risborough
16 minutes calling at Monks Risborough and Little Kimble

Incredibly tight but JUST possible I think, but only if both go through, since a 1 minute PR turnaround isn’t happening.

xx00 fast leaving PR (12 mins)
xx13 slow leaving A (16 mins)
xx30 slow leaving PR (16 mins)
xx47 fast leaving A (12 mins)

And you're timetabling the whole route (in both directions) *exactly* around that! And by consequence, Cross Country and freight north of Banbury. And the Met Line, etc etc.

 

[HST43257]

And you're timetabling the whole route (in both directions) *exactly* around that! And by consequence, Cross Country and freight north of Banbury. And the Met Line, etc etc.

Which is why it is not realistic, and should be a 1tph shuttle or a 1tph through service to London.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

Headway is 3 minutes all the way from Marylebone to Princes Risborough. You are not going to get much better than that even with ETCS. Some of those proposed gaps look quite odd. Why go at xx.05 if the first train isn't stopping until Haddenham? Also, why not try to keep the Oxford and Birmingham services 30 mins apart? Where are the freight slots?

Not much freight but all freight leaves the line by princes risborough. This should slot in nicely behind the xx:47. It is timed like this because the xx:05 of the following hour will catch up otherwise to the xx:47 or freight. It is also good planning to allow a gap so if things go pear shaped there is room for timetable recovery. There is also a gap as stops may be added/omitted and services correspondingly might have their departure times moved 1 or 2 minutes for this to adjust for stopping patterns. E.g peak calls at the sudburys on one service might mean pushing everything in the timetable 2 mins back to allow this to run smoothly.

Clockface timetabling just isnt a possible reality on the line, you would get severe congestion on the line. This roughly balances frequencies at intermediate stations focusing more on connectivity.

Also, can you get 2 an hour each way Risboro’ to Aylesbury?

With due respect to 30907 yes you can, you path the sevices to follow each other, to go to ayelsbury, then two back to risborough. This avoids waiting double the amount of time for trains to clear the branch.

Optionally for added simplicity add the branch calls to the Ayelsbury via HW service. I only have it in as a seperate service due to bearing in mind overall unit diagrams, stations on the branch cant take more than 3 cars, and the units arent fitted with SDO

 

[Bletchleyite]

Optionally for added simplicity add the branch calls to the Ayelsbury via HW service. I only have it in as a seperate service due to bearing in mind overall unit diagrams, stations on the branch cant take more than 3 cars, and the units arent fitted with SDO

The branch only has 2 stations, is there really much gained by having a fast and a slow?

 

[Ianno87]

With due respect to 30907 yes you can, you path the sevices to follow each other, to go to ayelsbury, then two back to risborough. This avoids waiting double the amount of time for trains to clear the branch.

But why would you do that when it adds little in passenger frequency terms over a simple 1tph service (maybe with a "peak direction" extra overlaid)?

What's the point of 2tph when they're just running one behind the other then a 50+ minute gap?

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

The branch only has 2 stations, is there really much gained by having a fast and a slow?

Yes, they retain their service. Or you pay out lots of money on shiny new trains. Why keep running 3 car dmus on the mainline if you dont need to. The timetable focuses capacity on the core route with connectivity. This way the branch doesnt lose out, but if you want it to, it can. I would only run the branch in peak hours personally, the 300 bus is every 15 mins doing the same route, the branch only sees significant numbers in peaks for school children and commuters

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, they retain their service. Or you pay out lots of money on shiny new trains. Why keep running 3 car dmus on the mainline if you dont need to.

If it was an all stations shuttle to PR timed to connect with mainline services, then you wouldn't be running 3-car DMUs on the mainline.

FWIW another option for it would be to extend EWR which will be, er, 3-car DMUs.

The timetable focuses capacity on the core route with connectivity. This way the branch doesnt lose out, but if you want it to, it can. I would only run the branch in peak hours personally, the 300 bus is every 15 mins doing the same route, the branch only sees significant numbers in peaks for school children and commuters

Terrible idea. What is it about this Forum and wanting to close lines? You'd think it was CarUKForums!

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

But why would you do that when it adds little in passenger frequency terms over a simple 1tph service (maybe with a "peak direction" extra overlaid)?

What's the point of 2tph when they're just running one behind the other then a 50+ minute gap?

Because your not viewing it the same way. At the stations where it matters, e.g Monks Risborough and Little Kimble the service is hourly. The point of another train is to serve these when the other train cant because its too long

 

[Ianno87]

Because your not viewing it the same way. At the stations where it matters, e.g Monks Risborough and Little Kimble the service is hourly. The point of another train is to serve these when the other train cant because its too long

Or, with new stock, use Selective Door Opening.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Because your not viewing it the same way. At the stations where it matters, e.g Monks Risborough and Little Kimble the service is hourly. The point of another train is to serve these when the other train cant because its too long

Why even run a fast through service at all? People from Aylesbury go to London via Amersham, because it's quite substantially quicker if I recall. People from Risborough go to London via High Wycombe. People from Risborough and the branch stations do have a direct service to Aylesbury and vice versa. The branch station passengers (all 3 of them; people forget just how rural the area is) would have to change anyway. It would literally serve no purpose other than if the route via Amersham was disrupted, in which case I'm sure people can cope with an easy change at Risborough.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

If it was an all stations shuttle to PR timed to connect with mainline services, then you wouldn't be running 3-car DMUs on the mainline.

FWIW another option for it would be to extend EWR which will be, er, 3-car DMUs.

I also had in mind extending the Ayelsbury via Hw service to go on to Milton Keynes via east west rail!

I'd like to point out the reason for an Ayelsbury via HW service is for a 3rd Ayelsbury service with connectivity to other areas of bucks and northwest london.

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Or, with new stock, use Selective Door Opening.

Then factor in the money of buying new stock

 

[Ianno87]

Why even run a fast through service at all? People from Aylesbury go to London via Amersham, because it's quite substantially quicker if I recall. People from Risborough go to London via High Wycombe. People from Risborough and the branch stations do have a direct service to Aylesbury and vice versa. The branch station passengers (all 3 of them; people forget just how rural the area is) would have to change anyway. It would literally serve no purpose other than if the route via Amersham was disrupted, in which case I'm sure people can cope with an easy change at Risborough.

Aylesbury<>High Wycombe is a market worth serving directly, and would be a clear "benefit" to the Chiltern area from HS2 released capacity.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd like to point out the reason for an Ayelsbury via HW service is for a 3rd Ayelsbury service with connectivity to other areas of bucks and northwest london.

I think the demand would be found to be very low and perfectly well satisfied by changing at Risborough. The idea would start to look a bit like a classic Northern "hourly service from everywhere to everywhere" kind of mess.

 

[Ianno87]

Then factor in the money of buying new stock

Which is cheaper in the long run than having an additional hourly service purely to serve two local station.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

Why even run a fast through service at all? People from Aylesbury go to London via Amersham, because it's quite substantially quicker if I recall. People from Risborough go to London via High Wycombe. People from Risborough and the branch stations do have a direct service to Aylesbury and vice versa. The branch station passengers (all 3 of them; people forget just how rural the area is) would have to change anyway. It would literally serve no purpose other than if the route via Amersham was disrupted, in which case I'm sure people can cope with an easy change at Risborough.

We live in a world where journey times are important, we are competing against the car, and if the shuttle is cancelled than you would isolate Ayelsbury. The fact of the matter is even if it is only one change joe public doesnt like it

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Feb 2021 ==

Which is cheaper in the long run than having an additional hourly service purely to serve two local station.

It isnt. Or should i say, it is, but the long run in this case would be over 25 years. New trains are expensive.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We live in a world where journey times are important, we are competing against the car, and if the shuttle is cancelled than you would isolate Ayelsbury. The fact of the matter is even if it is only one change joe public doesnt like it

Isolate Aylesbury from what? The primary demand is to London, and as you said there's also a bus service!

Why would a branch shuttle be cancelled? The depot (traincrew and unit) is at Aylesbury, if the unit fails get a spare one, if the driver doesn't show up grab the spare guy out of the messroom. It doesn't interact with anything else. It should arguably be the most reliable train service in the country.

(Yes, I know, the Marston Vale...but the problem with that is the 230s being unreliable so even having a spare one isn't enough)

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

I think the demand would be found to be very low and perfectly well satisfied by changing at Risborough. The idea would start to look a bit like a classic Northern "hourly service from everywhere to everywhere" kind of mess.

Yes the demand would be very low, but it maintains the serice. I wont argue that, but guess what, you axe a poorly used service and suddenly its like your trying to take someones first born child

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes the demand would be very low, but it maintains the serice. I wont argue that, but guess what, you axe a poorly used service and suddenly its like your trying to take someones first born child

I'm not proposing axing the hourly shuttle, I'm proposing that it is just a shuttle, not a through service.

Like when they were using the bubble car there'd be the odd moan but they'd get used to it.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

Isolate Aylesbury from what? The primary demand is to London, and as you said there's also a bus service!

Why would a branch shuttle be cancelled? The depot (traincrew and unit) is at Aylesbury, if the unit fails get a spare one, if the driver doesn't show up grab the spare guy out of the messroom. It doesn't interact with anything else. It should arguably be the most reliable train service in the country.

(Yes, I know, the Marston Vale...but the problem with that is the 230s being unreliable so even having a spare one isn't enough)

Try reading, you isolate Ayelsbury from High Wycombe, Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross, and NW london (see ruislip). High Wycombe is a large centre of employment, which the train can serve faster than the bus service, and you underestimate the internal travel within buckinghamshire.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Try reading, you isolate Ayelsbury from High Wycombe, Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross, and NW london (see ruislip). High Wycombe is a large centre of employment, which the train can serve faster than the bus service, and you underestimate the internal travel within buckinghamshire.

You don't isolate it from anything if it isn't cancelled, and if you can't regularly get 100% punctuality and reliability from a single modern hydraulic transmission DMU going up and down an isolated line with a traincrew and unit depot at one end then there are serious questions needing to be asked about how the TOC is run.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

I'm not proposing axing the hourly shuttle, I'm proposing that it is just a shuttle, not a through service.

Like when they were using the bubble car there'd be the odd moan but they'd get used to it.

That is what i proposed in the timetable as well, thus 4 trains on the branch, otherwise you are in fact axing the through service. Also it could be reliably done, i think a lot of people overcomplicate things here sometimes

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is what i proposed in the timetable as well, thus 4 trains on the branch, otherwise you are in fact axing the through service

Yes, I'm axing the through service.

 

[Ianno87]

It isnt. Or should i say, it is, but the long run in this case would be over 25 years. New trains are expensive.

Chiltern's Turbo fleet is ~30 years old and will need replacing within the timescales we're talking about here anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chiltern's Turbo fleet is ~30 years old and will need replacing within the timescales we're talking about here anyway.

I think it's easy to forget that 158s and Turbos are not much newer than 150/153/155/156 because they look so much more modern. Indeed I reckon if you showed a random person an aircon-converted 165 and a 168/170 they'd not be able to tell you which was newer.

 

[EnriqueEspaña]

12 minutes nonstop
14 minutes calling at Monks Risborough
16 minutes calling at Monks Risborough and Little Kimble

Thank you HST43257 for the timings. Maybe I mayself havent been too clear, so let me try to explain more clearly.

Lets say the service from Marylebone to Ayelsbury via Hw arrives at Princes Risborough at xx:00 for simplicity.

Xx:00 ayelsbury (no stops) arrive Xx:12
Xx:05 ayelsbury (all stops) arrive xx:21

It takes in this example 21 mins for both trains to clear the line. Then repeat on the way back.

Chiltern's Turbo fleet is ~30 years old and will need replacing within the timescales we're talking about here anyway.

I completely agree so in this case it would elimimate the need for a shuttle completely.

To reiterate, i think the shuttle is also pointless. It would be better served adding the stops to a through service. But this would require new trains. I hope the timetable above clearly demonstrates how a reliable service would opperate.

 

[Ianno87]

Thank you HST43257 for the timings. Maybe I mayself havent been too clear, so let me try to explain more clearly.

Lets say the service from Marylebone to Ayelsbury via Hw arrives at Princes Risborough at xx:00 for simplicity.

Xx:00 ayelsbury (no stops) arrive Xx:12
Xx:05 ayelsbury (all stops) arrive xx:21

It takes in this example 21 mins for both trains to clear the line. Then repeat on the way back.

I completely agree so in this case it would elimimate the need for a shuttle completely.

To reiterate, i think the shuttle is also pointless. It would be better served adding the stops to a through service. But this would require new trains. I hope the timetable above clearly demonstrates how a reliable service would opperate.

The alternative of course is just do some platform extensions. The nature of the route is that you could probably blockade it completely for a week or two to get them done without much in the way of passenger disruption.